Pre-Game Talk: Pre-Season - Canucks Power Ranking - Western Conference

[Hit the post]

Yeah, I can't understand why anyone thinks we'll be so much worse than last year. We're both better on paper and unlikely to be the second most injured team (accounting for both quantity and quality) again.

I agree - barring long injuries to the Sedins - I can't see us being much worse (I mean, how much worse can one get if we were third last this past season?).

 

[VanJack]

The only thing which makes me think the 'experts' might be overestimating how bad the Canucks will be, is goaltending....The NHL bottom-feeders are usually the teams with the most questionable goaltending....I just can't see Markstrom-Miller being that bad.

 

[me2]

The king has spoken.

Outside of Price Montreal are as bad as us. They better pray he stays healthy.

 

[DL44]

The only thing which makes me think the 'experts' might be overestimating how bad the Canucks will be, is goaltending....The NHL bottom-feeders are usually the teams with the most questionable goaltending....I just can't see Markstrom-Miller being that bad.

I think also it's the number of young pre-prime players we have...
It's tremendously difficult to predict what kind of step they'll be taking next season...
Not all will remain status quo, not all will step up.

I can sit here and hope all I want for them to all progress and all get better... It won't happen.

Our success depends on which ones step up and to what degree.

After Edler - Larsen at 26 is our oldest Dman... think about that for a sec..
25 and under forwards: Horvat, Granlund, Baertschi, Rodin, Gaunce, Virtanen, (Etem)
5 or 6 forwards iced outta 12..

The depth of the lineup we're icing on previous merit is a fairly low tier lineup.
But there's a tonne of upside there to be developed which breeds my optimism.

Can't wait to see how it all shakes out.

 

[me2]

I agree - barring long injuries to the Sedins - I can't see us being much worse (I mean, how much worse can one get if we were third last this past season?).

The problem is everyone as bad as us seems primed to get better too. We might see lower point totals from that alone, right across the West. I'm guessing 90 points gets you in and last is going to be closer to 70 than 60.

 

[RandV]

Sometimes you have to choose... Would you rather be right, or would you rather be happy? There's a time and place to choose one over the other, when you can't have both at the same time...

I think in this case, I'd rather be right. I'd have to manipulate reality in such a way to be happy as a Canuck fan right now, to be gleefully hopeful as a Canuck fan right now, that I would be living in a realm of self delusion... I'd be doing things like floating on a leaf. In this regard, I'm gleefully glad that others are seeing things the way that I do... and not just anyone seeing things as I do. Vegas, EA Sports code, credible hockey analysts, and posters that I respect here for Canuck related thoughts and opinions. Some inter-related analysis... some independent analysis... Different ways and approaches to get to the same point... Lots of same conclusions. Vegas for one doesn't screw around. I think I'm on the right track with my prediction. If I'm wrong, lots of time to re-evaluate things later.

I think the thing you have to take into account when looking at local fan expectations vs broader league projections is are we looking at the broader picture of the league and coming to a somewhat unbiased conclusion, or just looking at our own team in a vacuum.

Looking at a Canucks fan who leans more positive to the outcome of the season, they're focusing on things like Sutter and Edler being healthy this time and goaltending being decent.

My take is while I'd like to be optomistic, as I had been every season from 2000-01 to 2014-15, I like at the current NHL lines to start the season and taking off the Canuck fan blinders can only see us as a bottom 5 team... exactly the same as last year.

 

[mathonwy]

Outside of Price Montreal are as bad as us. They better pray he stays healthy.

No... not really.

Here's a goal/point projection for both teams this season.

Their blue line kicks our blue line in the teeth.

 

[WTG]

No... not really.

Here's a goal/point projection for both teams this season.

Their blue line kicks our blue line in the teeth.

I think Baertschi, Virtanen, Hutton all will outpreform those projections

Baertschi will probably get close to 20 goals and 20 assists
Hutton I think will get 35 points
Virtanen 9 goals 11 assists 20 points should be very reachable

Also this doesn't include Rodin who could really be a big x factor.
Edler will get more then 28 points this season unless he's injured.
Stecher will probably get around 10 points this year too at least if things go south. (Biega got 7 points last year)

But as far as projections go this is really solid. I think they were relitaavly liberal with Gaunce's projections and Dorsett's. Also I do not think Tanev gets more then 20 points. EE won't do jack **** this year. Burrows 11 goals, way too liberal.

594 points for all the forwards combined seems like a solid mark. I would redistribute some of their projections but I do not disagree with those totals at all.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Not me.

I'll admit that I hope they are right. If rather see this team crash and burn and hope it spells the end of this regime than see us just miss the playoffs by 3 points or something.

I'm not gleefull about it though. Not remotely. Everything about this team is painful right now.

 

[mathonwy]

I think Baertschi, Virtanen, Hutton all will outpreform those projections

Baertschi will probably get close to 20 goals and 20 assists
Hutton I think will get 35 points
Virtanen 9 goals 11 assists 20 points should be very reachable

Also this doesn't include Rodin who could really be a big x factor.
Edler will get more then 28 points this season unless he's injured.
Stecher will probably get around 10 points this year too at least if things go south. (Biega got 7 points last year)

But as far as projections go this is really solid. I think they were relitaavly liberal with Gaunce's projections and Dorsett's. Also I do not think Tanev gets more then 20 points. EE won't do jack **** this year. Burrows 11 goals, way too liberal.

594 points for all the forwards combined seems like a solid mark. I would redistribute some of their projections but I do not disagree with those totals at all.

I would probably have attributed Etem's goals/points to Rodin but I'm not hopeful about his knee injury at all.

Pre-season is no where near as intense as the start of the regular season as well as during playoff push time.

And you don't mess around with knee injuries.

 

[Street Hawk]

I would probably have attributed Etem's goals/points to Rodin but I'm not hopeful about his knee injury at all.

Pre-season is no where near as intense as the start of the regular season as well as during playoff push time.

And you don't mess around with knee injuries.

If we are looking at goal production, this is what I am seeing:

Daniel/Henrik/Eriksson - They need to combine at least 70 goals. Henrik his usual 15 or so. Depending on how they play, I'd say 25 for Daniel and 30 for Loui. Fair expectation from the top line based on their age and what they have done over the past 3 seasons.

Baerstchi/Rodin/Sutter/Horvat/Hansen/Virtanen - This is assuming Rodin is healthy. Otherwise, that means Burrows is pushed up and that's not good.
All of the guys on the 2-3 lines need to combine for 105 goals at least. Average of 17.5 goals per player. A couple will push around 20 and a couple will be closer to the low teens. But, that is what they need from these 2 lines.

Gaunce, Granlund, Dorsett - Maybe 20 goals or more

So, that's about 195 goals at a minimum that they need from their forwards.

On defence

Edler/Tanev/Hutton/Gudbranson/Larsen/Scibsa - Need at least 25 from the backend. That moves them up to 220 goals.

Overall, I think these are realistic expectations. But, they really need a pair of guys from the 2-3 lines to really step up their game offensively.

Personally, I expect a 12-14th place finish in the West. Just see them losing a lot of 2-1 games this year.

 

[me2]

No... not really.

Here's a goal/point projection for both teams this season.

Maybe I'm being unfair on them but healthy Canucks are a match for the Priceless habs (aking any teams franchise player is going to hurt though). IMHO Canucks underperformed last year, the year before they had 242 goals. I see them getting around 210 this year. If PDO was will below average, should hopefully be a bounce back.

5 more from the sedin line
5 more from baertschi-Horvat
5 from Sutter line,
2 from the 4th line
2 from the D.

19 goals extra is about the best we can hope for. Anything more would be unexpected, but not unbelievable (iirc 242 in 14-15) it would just need a lot of luck or multiple players breaking out.

Defensively maybe 10 goals better, but that's up to goalies to get it better that.

Still looking at a -20 team barring luck or goalie going nuts.

 

[VanJack]

I think also it's the number of young pre-prime players we have...
It's tremendously difficult to predict what kind of step they'll be taking next season...
Not all will remain status quo, not all will step up.

I can sit here and hope all I want for them to all progress and all get better... It won't happen.

Our success depends on which ones step up and to what degree.

After Edler - Larsen at 26 is our oldest Dman... think about that for a sec..
25 and under forwards: Horvat, Granlund, Baertschi, Rodin, Gaunce, Virtanen, (Etem)
5 or 6 forwards iced outta 12..

The depth of the lineup we're icing on previous merit is a fairly low tier lineup.
But there's a tonne of upside there to be developed which breeds my optimism.

Can't wait to see how it all shakes out.

Except that Tanev and Sbisa are both 26 as well and based on the number of NHL games they've played, this surely qualifies them as 'veterans' by now...and although Gudbranson is only 24, he broke in with Florida as an 18-year old, so he's into his eighth year...I'm actually less concerned about the youth on the blueline than up-front....unless guys like Horvat, Baertschi, Virtanen, Granlund and Gaunce can find another gear, the Sedins won't be able to carry the scoring load alone.

 

[RandV]

Maybe I'm being unfair on them but healthy Canucks are a match for the Priceless habs (I am taking any teams franchise player though). IMHO Canucks underperformed last year, the year before they had 242 goals. I see them getting around 210 this year.

5 more from the sedin line
5 more from baertschi-Horvat
5 from Sutter line,
2 from the 4th line
2 from the D.

19 goals extra is about the best we can hope for. Anything more would be unexpected, but not unbelievable (iirc 242 in 14-15) it would just need a lot of luck or multiple players breaking out.

Defensively maybe 10 goals better, but that's up to goalies to get it better that.

Still looking at a -20 team barring luck or goalie going nuts.

Just curious, but are we talking about a Price-less Habs team in that they will be going with league-worst goaltending trying to fill 82 games with career backups and 2nd rate prospects, while we stay steady with Miller & Markstrom? Or are we talking about comparing the F+D head to head without any goalies involved?

The former situation then okay you could have an argument for, but in the latter case even though they've made some questionable decisions I don't think the Canucks are on par with Montreal. Forwards could be relatively close, but the Habs have a much better blueline.

 

[me2]

Just curious, but are we talking about a Price-less Habs team in that they will be going with league-worst goaltending trying to fill 82 games with career backups and 2nd rate prospects, while we stay steady with Miller & Markstrom? Or are we talking about comparing the F+D head to head without any goalies involved?

The former situation then okay you could have an argument for, but in the latter case even though they've made some questionable decisions I don't think the Canucks are on par with Montreal. Forwards could be relatively close, but the Habs have a much better blueline.

Habs-price. I'm just not a fan of Montreal (roster, I like the franchise), so I'm probably selling them a bit short but I think only put up around 220-225 goals this season.

Otoh

Habs with price >>>>> Canucks -Henrik

 

[ginner classic]

Maybe I'm being unfair on them but healthy Canucks are a match for the Priceless habs (I am taking any teams franchise player though). IMHO Canucks underperformed last year, the year before they had 242 goals. I see them getting around 210 this year.

5 more from the sedin line
5 more from baertschi-Horvat
5 from Sutter line,
2 from the 4th line
2 from the D.

19 goals extra is about the best we can hope for. Anything more would be unexpected, but not unbelievable (iirc 242 in 14-15) it would just need a lot of luck or multiple players breaking out.

Defensively maybe 10 goals better, but that's up to goalies to get it better that.

Still looking at a -20 team barring luck or goalie going nuts.

The good teams mostly got worse. The bad teams improved as much if not more than we did.

Edmonton added half a season of a matured McDavid, Puljujarvi, Lucic, Russell, Larsson and lost Hall. They will be much better than last year.

Calgary added Elliott, Brouwer and possibly Tkachuk. Lost nobody. Massively improved by adressing two big weaknesses.

Arizona added Strome, Vrbata, Dvorak, Crouse, Goligoski, Schenn and possibly Chychrun. Big improvement. Did not lose much.

Winnipeg added Laine and Connor but will feel the effects from losing Ladd. Assuming they make a Trouba deal soon, they should be slightly better than last year. Lots of young players makes them boom or bust.

Colorado adding Rantanen...new coach. Big improvements possible if young guns take the next step. Depth at forward still a problem IMO. We shall see how they do.

LA could decline I suppose.

We are not close to any of the other teams in the west.

My guess....

Canucks improve by 10 points
Dallas declines by 15
St Louis declines by 15
Chicago improves by 5
LA declines by 10
San Jose declines by 5
Anaheim stays the same
Minnesota improves by 5
Edmonton improves by 15
Calgary improves by 15
Winnipeg stays the same
Colorado improves by 5
Arizona improves by 5
Predators improve by 5

Chicago 108
Anaheim 103
Nashville 101
San Jose 93
Dallas 94
St Louis 93
Minnesota 92
Calgary 92
LA 92
Colorado 87
Edmonton 85
Vancouver 85
Arizona 83
Winnipeg 78

Pretty easy to see how a 10 point improvement won't mean SFA in the standings.

 

[bbud]

President's trophy. Bookmark this post. Placing a 500 dollhair bet for anyone interested.

ill take that bet i think they may compete presidents trophy umm lol

 

[DL44]

Skip last yr for sec... how does this yr's team compare to the 101 pt 14-15 team?
Goaltending about the same tier.
Eriksson replaces Vrbata equally... Sedins are downgraded slightly if healthy.
Top pairing is the same but more experienced.
The rest of the D is downgraded in experience.. scoring difference may be close (Bieksa, Hamhuis, Weber for Gudbranson, Hutton, Larsen)
Forward depth is younger, faster, and more skilled imo.... but also inexperienced.

I'm hoping/expecting we are closer to the 101 pt version than the 75 pt version.

 

[Josepho]

Skip last yr for sec... how does this yr's team compare to the 101 pt 14-15 team?
Goaltending about the same tier.
Eriksson replaces Vrbata equally... Sedins are downgraded slightly if healthy.
Top pairing is the same but more experienced.
The rest of the D is downgraded in experience.. scoring difference may be close (Bieksa, Hamhuis, Weber for Gudbranson, Hutton, Larsen)
Forward depth is younger, faster, and more skilled imo.... but also inexperienced.

I'm hoping/expecting we are closer to the 101 pt version than the 75 pt version.

The bottom 9 (mainly bottom 6) is substantially worse and it's highly unlikely that SJ and LA **** the bed again like they did in that season. That year also had several teams handing out wins due to the McDavid sweepstakes, including Arizona and Edmonton. The twins aren't any younger and neither is Miller. That year was an absolute fluke and this team is far more similar to the one that finished 6th last and 3rd last than it is to the one that finished 8th overall.

 

[Paulinvancouver]

This team is a playoff team.

7th or 8th in the West and a Wildcard spot easy.

I'd rather have a much higher draft pick but we are going to the playoffs.

 

[DL44]

The bottom 9 (mainly bottom 6) is substantially worse and it's highly unlikely that SJ and LA **** the bed again like they did in that season. That year also had several teams handing out wins due to the McDavid sweepstakes, including Arizona and Edmonton. The twins aren't any younger and neither is Miller. That year was an absolute fluke and this team is far more similar to the one that finished 6th last and 3rd last than it is to the one that finished 8th overall.

Arizona did their best to chase Matthews last season... and will be icing rookies to 'compete' this yr as well.. I simply can't fathom how their D or goalies or forward depth or top line compares to the Canucks This Season.. yet projected by Everyone to finish ahead of us. Doesn't compute.

But you are right in terms of teams falling off the season we hit 101..
But it begs the question this season... are the Kings closer to last season or the season prior when they crapped the bed? The yr the couldn't score. They lost Lucic and replaced him with... Purcell. Gaborik out 8 weeks. A lot of weight on Kopitar, Carter and Toffoli. D depth is downgraded. Backup goalie is Zatkoff.
I'm not high on them this season. Everyone else is down on Ana. Have you seen Chi's bottom 6? Panik on Towes wing with a clearly downgraded Hossa (WC). Dallas replaced Goligoski, Demers and Russell with Hamhuis and youth and still have the same goalies.
Did the Blues replace Backes? With Perron? From within? Allen or bust in net.
Cgy and Edm have improved. . But I think we still take the season series this season.
I.e. I'm seeing enough pts out there to grab...

I'll buy stock in Nashville and the Boudreau led Wild tho...

 

[ginner classic]

This team is a playoff team.

7th or 8th in the West and a Wildcard spot easy.

I'd rather have a much higher draft pick but we are going to the playoffs.

I'll have some of what you are having.

 

[StIllmatic]

This team is a playoff team.

7th or 8th in the West and a Wildcard spot easy.

I'd rather have a much higher draft pick but we are going to the playoffs.

Who do we beat out for a playoff spot?

 

[VanJack]

Who do we beat out for a playoff spot?

The one glimmer of hope is that 'parity' has definitely arrived in the NHL....two seasons ago, both LA and San Jose missed the post-season, and nobody saw that coming.....and looking at Minny's roster, they don't look that overwhelming to me...and Anaheim is getting older and a couple of their younger RFA's are still unsigned....you just never know....injuries are so much a part of where teams finish now.

 

[ATypicalCanadian]

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/news/bold-predictions/c-282584178

The Canucks freelance writer has us being a playoff team. Not sure that I can agree with this since he doesn't take account the other western conference teams.