Blue Jays Discussion: Post Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Edition

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Paladin2799

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Jul 15, 2009
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Mach85

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He would be the exact "type" of player that you would go at if you want to replace Bautistas power.

Toronto does have prospects to give up, however I do agree it is unlikely.

There are ways to replace Batista's power that involve far, far less risk. Power is not the scarce commodity it used to be.
 

zeke

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osuna right now reminds me of stroman in the middle of last year - just fallen a bit too much in love with certain pitches, which is always a risk when you have so many pitches to choose from.
 

zeke

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needless to say, as far as fangraphs milb stats go back, no teenager has ever done what Vlad is doing in A+. that includes 19yr olds.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Reese McGuire doesnt like us talking about Danny Jansen as the future of the Jays at the catcher position;

2017 Season (36 Games): 319/.393/.526 - 5 HRs, 23 RBIs, 16 BB, 18 K, 37 hits, 0 errors in 258.2 innings in the field

Has a wRC+ of 153 in 98 PAs (last 25 games) with the Fisher Cats.

Has 11 hits in his last 6 games with 3 HRs.
 

zeke

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the thing to remember with McGuire is that this is the first time he's actually been age appropriate for his level, and not young for it.

And the biggest difference this year is the power, which is usually the last thing to develop.

Before this year his milb career looked like this:

1418pa, 7.2b%/9.6k%, .293babip/.267avg, .062iso, 90wrc+

So no power whatsoever, but solid control of the strikezone and solid contact hitting - and again while young for each level, and as a good defensive catcher.

This year the profile looks a bit different - he's increased both his walks and his strikeouts - but still maintains his good bb/k ratio (12.2/15.3). The contact is up a bit (.313babip/.305avg) too. But it's the massive power surge (.256iso) that is the big difference.

I'm pretty sure .256iso is a blip and that he's not that kind of hitter, but even if he ups his iso up near .150 once it settles, even that dramatically upgrades his profile as a hitter going forward.
 

phillipmike

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Call me crazy but i like Bautista in the infield at 3B. Moreso liking Donaldson at SS because it means unless bad bat in the lineup. If JD is ok playing SS then i keep him there for the rest of the season. Wonder what it looks like if/when Martin and Travis gets back.

Aoki - RF
Donaldson- SS
Smoak - 1B
Bautista - 3B
Pearce - LF
Martin - C
Morales - DH
Travis - 2B
Pillar - CF

Call me stupid but i would love to see a full month with Travis and Martin plus Sanchez in the pen coupled with Biagini and Rowley as your 4th and 5th guys for a run at the playoff spot. I still have hope!
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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the thing to remember with McGuire is that this is the first time he's actually been age appropriate for his level, and not young for it.

And the biggest difference this year is the power, which is usually the last thing to develop.

Before this year his milb career looked like this:

1418pa, 7.2b%/9.6k%, .293babip/.267avg, .062iso, 90wrc+

So no power whatsoever, but solid control of the strikezone and solid contact hitting - and again while young for each level, and as a good defensive catcher.

This year the profile looks a bit different - he's increased both his walks and his strikeouts - but still maintains his good bb/k ratio (12.2/15.3). The contact is up a bit (.313babip/.305avg) too. But it's the massive power surge (.256iso) that is the big difference.

I'm pretty sure .256iso is a blip and that he's not that kind of hitter, but even if he ups his iso up near .150 once it settles, even that dramatically upgrades his profile as a hitter going forward.

Completely agree. Plus it cant hurt to have a LH defensive catcher... I hope one of him or Jansen (likely Jansen) become our backup next season. For a second i thought McGuire was 25 because he was drafted in 2013... 22 years old and doing well in AA - seems to be on track to staying a legit catcher prospect.

Jansen
McGuire
Pentecost
Adams
Danner

Got a deep catching unit in the minors.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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needless to say, as far as fangraphs milb stats go back, no teenager has ever done what Vlad is doing in A+. that includes 19yr olds.

Yeah, I keep updating this as Guerrero keeps tearing the FSL to shreds, but it's fun every time.

Reminder: even setting the PA limit to just 50 to account for prospects who got a late callup to A+, the highest wRC+ at the level by an 18-year-old since 2006 are Mike Trout's 117 and Jose Tabata's 116. And Guerrero's at 180 now.

Even more impressive: in his last 23 games, it's 244... with a .534 OBP.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Call me crazy but i like Bautista in the infield at 3B. Moreso liking Donaldson at SS because it means unless bad bat in the lineup. If JD is ok playing SS then i keep him there for the rest of the season. Wonder what it looks like if/when Martin and Travis gets back.

Aoki - RF
Donaldson- SS
Smoak - 1B
Bautista - 3B
Pearce - LF
Martin - C
Morales - DH
Travis - 2B
Pillar - CF

Call me stupid but i would love to see a full month with Travis and Martin plus Sanchez in the pen coupled with Biagini and Rowley as your 4th and 5th guys for a run at the playoff spot. I still have hope!

I wonder if Donaldson makes the play on the three run double if he was at third instead of Bautista. If so, he saves three runs and they win going away.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
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I wonder if Donaldson makes the play on the three run double if he was at third instead of Bautista. If so, he saves three runs and they win going away.

Possible.. Possibly had the game won if Lopez made those two tough blocks on strike 3 in the 9th.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Completely agree. Plus it cant hurt to have a LH defensive catcher... I hope one of him or Jansen (likely Jansen) become our backup next season. For a second i thought McGuire was 25 because he was drafted in 2013... 22 years old and doing well in AA - seems to be on track to staying a legit catcher prospect.

Jansen
McGuire
Pentecost
Adams
Danner

Got a deep catching unit in the minors.

I'll still need to see McGuire keep up the offense for more than 100 PA, but it's great to see the bat starting to come around for him. Scouts were high on him reaching the majors because of his defense even when he was regularly putting up 80-90 wRC+. The power development makes it look like the potential is there for him to be a solid starter rather than just "better than Thole and Maile".
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
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Interesting question on this Jays fan survey (the bottom one):

DHxsPAfVoAAJAkK.jpg:large
 

frost king

Registered User
Dec 11, 2013
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1
Interesting question on this Jays fan survey (the bottom one):

DHxsPAfVoAAJAkK.jpg:large

That was in a survey I took early last year from the team. There were a whole bunch of other related questions. It took me about 45 minutes to complete it. I definitely give them a piece of my mind when I answered the questions.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Minimum 100pa, the best A+ 18yr olds since fangraphs has the stats for them (2006):

* = season in progress

1.V.Guerrero*: 160pa, 180wrc+
2.K.Ruiz*: 124pa, 152wrc+
3.M.Trout: 233pa, 117wrc+
4.W.Flores: 290pa, 112wrc+
5.M.Machado: 260pa, 96wrc+


and 19yr olds:

1.J.Montero: 198pa, 185wrc+
2.G.Stanton: 210pa, 178wrc+
3.W.Myers: 247pa, 172wrc+
4.B.Buxton: 253pa, 155wrc+
5.J.Jones*: 137pa, 153wrc+
6.J.Upton: 150pa, 151wrc+
7.B.Bichette*: 138pa, 148wrc+
8.J.Heyward: 214pa, 145wrc+
9.C.Correa: 293pa, 144wrc+
10.X.Bogaerts: 435pa, 144wrc+


Oh and I just checked and note that all of ruiz/trout/flores/machadao just missed the midseason age cutoff, as all were born in july or august, which means they were closer to 19yrs old than march baby Vladdy.
 

Neil Hamburger

Five Bagger!
Jun 15, 2010
3,553
6
Toronto
Minimum 100pa, the best A+ 18yr olds since fangraphs has the stats for them (2006):

* = season in progress

1.V.Guerrero*: 160pa, 180wrc+
2.K.Ruiz*: 124pa, 152wrc+
3.M.Trout: 233pa, 117wrc+
4.W.Flores: 290pa, 112wrc+
5.M.Machado: 260pa, 96wrc+


and 19yr olds:

1.J.Montero: 198pa, 185wrc+
2.G.Stanton: 210pa, 178wrc+
3.W.Myers: 247pa, 172wrc+
4.B.Buxton: 253pa, 155wrc+
5.J.Jones*: 137pa, 153wrc+
6.J.Upton: 150pa, 151wrc+
7.B.Bichette*: 138pa, 148wrc+
8.J.Heyward: 214pa, 145wrc+
9.C.Correa: 293pa, 144wrc+
10.X.Bogaerts: 435pa, 144wrc+


Oh and I just checked and note that all of ruiz/trout/flores/machadao just missed the midseason age cutoff, as all were born in july or august, which means they were closer to 19yrs old than march baby Vladdy.

I'm trying not to have unrealistic expectations for Vlad jr so I won't be too disappointed if he doesn't become a big time star, but he's making it difficult for me to temper them.
 
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