Poll: How many guys score 15+ goals?

[Habs Halifax]

I don't know of even care about this topic to much.

I dont think Montreal is going to wow anyone with goals this year, but I do see some hope for improvement on the PK, and goaltending.

I understand that we lack 40 goal threats but this Habs can't score narrative is flawed. Our PP sucks and hopefully that gets better but our 212 goals scored is mid pack of the NHL.

- 4 less goals vs the Jets
- 12 less goals vs the Pens
- 10 less goals vs the Canes
- 13 less goals vs the Oilers
- 15 less goals vs the Bruins

* Swap Domi for Anderson
* Add Toffoli
* Suzuki and KK one more year older
* Weal and Hudon moved out of the line-up
* Lehkonen, Armia, Byron moved down in the line-up
* Better line-up mix and less glaring flaws.
* Less pass happy wingers in shooting areas now

Add that all up and you would think that it creates more goals right? Like moving from mid pack to fringe top 10? That's not not a massive reach for us. The issue we need to improve at is team D. 221 goals allowed is bottom 10 in the NHL. That needs to be top 10 or top 5 if we are going to make any gains in the standings the way this team is build. Reality

 

[26Mats]

Statistically, your points are valid but we’ll have to see how things actually pan out. The schedule, travel arrangements and competition will be unlike anything we’ve had before. I’m expecting by game 20 or so, teams will start playing in playoff mode where checking gets a lot tighter and games are more intense.

My prediction is CJ, who normally rolls 4 lines, will really be strict about evening out ice time to keep everyone fresh. The top guys will still get more ice time, but I think less than they may be used to so their numbers may not be as high. Bottom-6 players I think will improve their numbers.

These are valid possibilities, as elements that could definitely lead to decreases in numbers for the top guys.

Elements that could lead to increases, or that could balance out these elements that could lead to decreases, include the following. we've got a better team. Players will be playing with better players. When you play with better players your production tends to go up. Additionally, the opposition won't be able to focus on shutting down the Danault line as much because there should be two really good lines coming right behind it. Also, for example, on the pp, Anderson and Perry will be in front of the net on different waves. I could see us scoring a lot more goals from the point - so more goals from Weber and high circle and high slot guys like Suzuki, Kk, Toffoli, Gallagher, Tatar, and Drouin.

But we,'ll see how it actually plays out on the ice. I still think we needed one more skill guy at the level of skill close to Toffoli and Anderson, such as a Granlund, or better a Marchessault if he was available, as rumored, to replace Armia in the top 9. We don't have high end elite forwards. It's great that we can play different styles as MB said in the presser, with the new additions. But do we have enough talent up front? We'll see.

 

[bsl]

Would be good to know how many teams have actually finished with ten 20G players through history.
As you said, we have two potentially good PP units, which is great for the team but from an individual stand point, only one player will score on it.

Pretty sure that no team has every had more than 6 or 7.

 

[bsl]

Not many. Bruins have the record at 11 I believe. Habs have one season with 10 guys and one with 9.

* 11 players with 20 goals: Bruins
* 10 players with 20 goals: Bruins, Habs, Blues
* 9 players with 20 goals: Bruins, Sabres, Pens, Islanders, Habs, Jets, Flames, Caps

For as bad as how our season went last year, we had 7 guys with prorated numbers close to 20 goals. Leafs and Caps had 7 in 18/19.

6 is reachable. 8 would be an accomplishment and most in recent memory. Last team to get 8 guys with 20 goals or more was the Rangers in 93/94. Correction: Wings did it in 05/06

Good report. I was way under with my guess of 6-7 players max

 

[Habs Halifax]

Good report. I was way under with my guess of 6-7 players max

5 or 6 would be nice. 7 or 8 would be impressive. That's how I feel about it

 

[calder candidate]

Deleted

 

[BergevinsOnlyFan]

Gallagher, Suzuki, Tatar maybe Toffoli and I want to say Anderson but I need to see him play first the rest of the goals will be spread out fairly evenly I imagine

 

[calder candidate]

Usually I would expect between 8-10 but with the shorten season, possible injuries and COVID... I think will been 6 to 8 if everything goes right.

 

[bsl]

I think that if we have 5 or less, we miss the playoffs to be honest.... they way we are built. So basically almost 70% of the people that voted think we miss the playoffs and don't even realize it. We will be lucky to have two guys or more with 30+ goals. Julien will roll lines. Look at post 37 (18/19 season where we just missed the playoffs).

Let's look at projected goal differential. Every year I go through the team and make out a list of realistic goal totals for the team, and goals against. A slight plus differential is usually a sign the team is on the playoff bubble.

First, I look at projected GAA. Assuming Price and Allen combine for a 2.6 GAA, thats say 145 goals against. I think this is pretty realistic.

Then look at the Habs lines and projected Goals/56 games. With some allowance for injuries. As you see, the goal totals I'm projecting are more spread out, with only Gally scoring 15 in 56. Big guess work here:

Tatar 12, Danault 7, Gally 15. Total 34
Drouin 8, Suzuki 10, Anderson 12. Total 30
Toffili 10, KK 7, Armia 8, Total 25
Perry 5, Evans 5, Lehks 5, Total 15

Byron 5, other players 5, Total 10

Total forward goals 114. Call it 115.

Chairot 4, Weber 10, Total 14
Edmundson 4, Petry 10, Total 15
Romanov 3, Kulak 3, total 6

Mete etc. 6

Total Defense goals 41, call it 40.

Total team goals for: 155. Call it 150. Total team Goals against: 145. Differential over 56 games = +5. About +8 over 82 games. That's usually good enough for making the PO, but very close.

But this does show PO are possible with only Gally reaching 15 goals this year, but the depth has to contribute. Shows you how crucial GAA will be this year. I think Habs will be right on the edge in this division. If they get bad Goaltending, forget it.

 

[covfefe]

Gally
Suzuki
Toffoli
Tatar
Anderson
KK

is my prediction. KK is the outlier, maybe he defers more with these added shooting threats. So 5 or 6.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Let's look at projected goal differential. Every year I go through the team and make out a list of realistic goal totals for the team, and goals against. A slight plus differential is usually a sign the team is on the playoff bubble.

First, I look at projected GAA. Assuming Price and Allen combine for a 2.6 GAA, thats say 145 goals against. I think this is pretty realistic.

Then look at the Habs lines and projected Goals/56 games. With some allowance for injuries. As you see, the goal totals I'm projecting are more spread out, with only Gally scoring 15 in 56. Big guess work here:

Tatar 12, Danault 7, Gally 15. Total 34
Drouin 8, Suzuki 10, Anderson 12. Total 30
Toffili 10, KK 7, Armia 8, Total 25
Perry 5, Evans 5, Lehks 5, Total 15

Byron 5, other players 5, Total 10

Total forward goals 114. Call it 115.

Chairot 4, Weber 10, Total 14
Edmundson 4, Petry 10, Total 15
Romanov 3, Kulak 3, total 6

Mete etc. 6

Total Defense goals 41, call it 40.

Total team goals for: 155. Call it 150. Total team Goals against: 145. Differential over 56 games = +5. About +8 over 82 games. That's usually good enough for making the PO, but very close.

But this does show PO are possible with only Gally reaching 15 goals this year, but the depth has to contribute. Shows you how crucial GAA will be this year. I think Habs will be right on the edge in this division. If they get bad Goaltending, forget it.

I hope we have a better differential than just +5. Let me take my guess...

175 goals for (56 games)
* 145 goals by the forwards. In 18/19, we had 204 goals scored by our forwards. 204/82 games x 56 games = 139 goals
* 30 goals by the Defenseman. In 18/19, we had 42 goals scored by our Defenseman. 42/82 games x 56 games = 29 goals.

I think your low on the forwards and high on the defenseman.

Goals against is more tricky to predict. I expect to be around 150 for 56 games. In 18/19, we had 236 goals against. 236 / 82 games x 56 games = 161. I expect our team D to be better so that's why I say 150.

My goal differential is around +15. I'm comparing this roster to the 18/19 season more than the 19/20 season. In 18/19 we were +13 over 82 games. Your +5 is low IMO and I'm assuming you think we miss the playoffs?

 

[bsl]

Suzuki -18 G
Drouin - 17 G
Gallagher - 16 G
Tatar - 16 G
Kotkaniemi - 15 G
Toffoli - 15 G
Anderson - 14 G
Armia - 14 G
Weber - 14 G
Danault - 11 G
Byron - 10 G
Perry - 10 G
Petry - 10 G

That's my prediction. Only 6 guys with 15 goals or more, but 13 with at least 10.

That is 162 goals in 56 games. And you are not even counting a few other D. So say 170 goals. Vs say 145 against. That is a plus 25 differential in in 56 games, which is about a +36 differential over 82. That sort of number usually means a top 10 team in the NHL. Rather optimistic.

 

[bsl]

I hope we have a better differential than just +5. Let me take my guess...

175 goals for (56 games)
* 145 goals by the forwards. In 18/19, we had 204 goals scored by our forwards. 204/82 games x 56 games = 139 goals
* 30 goals by the Defenseman. In 18/19, we had 42 goals scored by our Defenseman. 42/82 games x 56 games = 29 goals.

I think your low on the forwards and high on the defenseman.

Goals against is more tricky to predict. I expect to be around 150 for 56 games. In 18/19, we had 236 goals against. 236 / 82 games x 56 games = 161. I expect our team D to be better so that's why I say 150.

My goal differential is around +15. I'm comparing this roster to the 18/19 season more than the 19/20 season. In 18/19 we were +13 over 82 games. Your +5 is low IMO and I'm assuming you think we miss the playoffs?

I'm being very very conservative to be sure. My +5 was over 56 games, which is +8 for 82 games. My assumption is that almost no one this year scores at a 30 goal pace for 82 games. If we get 2 players that do, then I think a +15 over 56 games looks realistic. So, 4th in the division looks doable if so. Maybe even third if other teams have some serious injury issues.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm being very very conservative to be sure. My +5 was over 56 games, which is +8 for 82 games. My assumption is that almost no one this year scores at a 30 goal pace for 82 games. If we get 2 players that do, then I think a +15 over 56 games looks realistic. So, 4th in the division looks doable if so. Maybe even third if other teams have some serious injury issues.

I hope we are more like +15 but it's all guess work. If our team D does not improve, we are toast and miss the playoffs IMO. Scoring more is one thing but holding leads and being a top 10 defensive team (maybe top 5) is where we stand to make the most ground and how we move up the standings.

Lots of fans are focusing on the Habs lack of offense. Not me, I'm focusing on our team D with the new additions we made. Pretty sure our coaches will do the same too! We are not built to blow you out, we are built to frustrate you with 3-1 wins with a open net goal.

 

[Redux91]

Would of voted higher than 5 if it weren't for the 56 game schedule, wrong season to ask this question unfortunately

 

[Habs Halifax]

That is 162 goals in 56 games. And you are not even counting a few other D. So say 170 goals. Vs say 145 against. That is a plus 25 differential in in 56 games, which is about a +36 differential over 82. That sort of number usually means a top 10 team in the NHL. Rather optimistic.

Yeah, +36 would be awesome and it's more like what the top 5 teams do. 5th best last year was the Blues at +32. Flyers were +36... can we match them? Outside chance but not going to bank on it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Would of voted higher than 5 if it weren't for the 56 game schedule, wrong season to ask this question unfortunately

The question was based on a 56 game season. 15 goals in 56 games is a 22 goal season over 82 games. I guess I should have changed the 15 goals to 13 or 14? Too late now, 15 is not a bad rounding number.

In 18/19, we had 5 guys with 18 or more goals. Byron and Weber had 14 and 15 but played 56 and 58 games. I don't know about you but I have more faith in this roster than the 18/19 roster.

 

[Redux91]

The question was based on a 56 game season. 15 goals in 56 games is a 22 goal season over 82 games. I guess I should have changed the 15 goals to 13 or 14? Too late now, 15 is not a bad rounding number.

In 18/19, we had 5 guys with 18 or more goals. Byron and Weber had 14 and 15 but played 56 and 58 games. I don't know about you but I have more faith in this roster than the 18/19 roster.

No I get you bud, and wasn't taking a shot

I just think for the 56 game schedule, the question should be more "how many 10 goal scorers" methinks

 

[Habs Halifax]

No I get you bud, and wasn't taking a shot

I just think for the 56 game schedule, the question should be more "how many 10 goal scorers" methinks

No worries. Didn't take it that way. Just wanted to clarify that is was meant for a 56 game season. I get your point, less games so streaky goal scorers might not get to the prorated 20 or 22 goal level (0.24 goals/game). It's a fair point to make. Too late now but maybe 12 goals was a better number. 10 to me is low but that's a prorated 15 goal season over 82 games.

Personally, I'm using the 20 goal threshold (or 22 goals cause 15 in 56 is prorated to 22 in 82 games). It's the 20 goal narrative at the end of the day

 

[Habs Halifax]

Tatar's 6 seasons in a row with 20 goals is in jeopardy. But then again he would have 7 seasons in a row if you prorate the 13/14 season (19 goals in 73 games). Not many guys are in this current streak boat with Tatar... Not sure where you find this on the internet but there are only a few handful of players that can say the same thing. Blame some other player situations on injures but it is what it is.

 

[Andy]

The closest example you'll get is the 2012 shortened season.

The Canadiens had 5 players on pace for 20, 6 if you counted Ryder's time in Dallas, and additional 2 players right on the cusp of a 20 goal pace.

I guess the question is whether:

Tatar Danault Gallagher
Toffoli Sukuki Drouin
Armia KK Anderson

Weber Petry

Will score more goals than

Pacioretty Desharnais Gallagher
Gionta Plekanec Ryder
Galchenyuk Eller Bourque

Subban Markov


I'm not sure.

Subban and Pacioretty were in their primes.

Eller, Gallagher, and Galchenyuk are comparable to KK and Suzuki.

Drouin and Desharnais are somewhat similar. Drouin has hit 20 once, and has struggled to be a consistent goal scorer since.

Gionta, Ryder and Plekanec were proven vets with a long history of goal scoring. Tatar has that, Toffoli a few times, and Anderson has done it twice.

Again, I see Gallagher hitting it. Toffoli for sure, and one of Anderson/Tatar. Maybe both.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The closest example you'll get is the 2012 shortened season.

The Canadiens had 5 players on pace for 20, 6 if you counted Ryder's time in Dallas, and additional 2 players right on the cusp of a 20 goal pace.

Good catch. I voted 6-8 and I feel it will be 6 guys. 7 would be impressive and 8 would be unreal. 7 is not typical and 8 is very very rare.

 

[sandviper]

Here’s a hot take... Perry will be among the top-10 in goals on the team, and score 11-13 this season.

 

[salbutera]

Here’s a hot take... Perry will be among the top-10 in goals on the team, and score 11-13 this season.

Price wins Vezina

 

[abo9]

Well, in the last 3 seasons, we had
5, 6 and 4 players reach 15 goals respectively.

I'd wager we see less than 5 players make it over a significantly shorter season, despite the additions of Toffoli and Anderson and potential improvements from Suzuki/Kotkaniemi.

I think 2-3 players reach 15, and because I'm optimistic tonight I'll say 3.
Most probable: Gallagher
Maybe (I'd say it's a 50/50) :Tatar/Anderson/Suzuki/Toffoli

I can see a bunch of others coming "close" and spreading the rest of the offense. After all, this team's strenght is playing cohesively together, there's not a superstar forward