Poll: How many guys score 15+ goals?

[Habs Halifax]

Would be good to know how many teams have actually finished with ten 20G players through history.
As you said, we have two potentially good PP units, which is great for the team but from an individual stand point, only one player will score on it.

Not many. Bruins have the record at 11 I believe. Habs have one season with 10 guys and one with 9.

* 11 players with 20 goals: Bruins
* 10 players with 20 goals: Bruins, Habs, Blues
* 9 players with 20 goals: Bruins, Sabres, Pens, Islanders, Habs, Jets, Flames, Caps

For as bad as how our season went last year, we had 7 guys with prorated numbers close to 20 goals. Leafs and Caps had 7 in 18/19.

6 is reachable. 8 would be an accomplishment and most in recent memory. Last team to get 8 guys with 20 goals or more was the Rangers in 93/94. Correction: Wings did it in 05/06

 

[26Mats]

There is only one puck and a limited amount of game time.

It's often the case that when a team adds a goal scorer to the lineup that another goal scorer sees a reduction in goals because of basic game limitations.

If 14 goals is a 20 goal equivalent, I could see three habs reaching that threshold by the end of the season. I'd guess Gallagher, Toffoli and Anderson will hit those totals.

You also need to factor in injuries.

The last time the habs had more than three 20 goal scorers was 2014/2015.

Since 2014/2015, the habs have had only more than two 20 goal scorers once.

Also, I think a "5 and under category" shouldn't be the first option in the poll. It should be 3, then 5.

Anyone expect five 20 goal scorers should really adjust their expectations. The habs only made the playoffs twice in the last 5 years and would have missed last season if not for the COVID tournament.

The 2018/2019 lightning had 5 players with 20 goals or more and that was a very, very deep team that scored a lot of goals. The 2007/2008 habs was one of its highest scoring teams in recent memory and they only 4 20 goal scorers.

No Tatar?

 

[Andy]

No Tatar?

Tatar has benefitted from a team with little scoring depth. His offensive leaning probably dwindles a little bit now that they've brought in Anderson and Toffoli.

Like I said, often, adding goal scorers results in someone else scoring less since there is a limited amount of offensive opportunities, one puck and only 60 minutes. I think Tatar is one of those guys that sees a slight drop this season because he has to share offensive opportunities with Toffoli and Anderson.

 

[Habs Halifax]

There is only one puck and a limited amount of game time.

It's often the case that when a team adds a goal scorer to the lineup that another goal scorer sees a reduction in goals because of basic game limitations.

If 14 goals is a 20 goal equivalent, I could see three habs reaching that threshold by the end of the season. I'd guess Gallagher, Toffoli and Anderson will hit those totals.

You also need to factor in injuries.

The last time the habs had more than three 20 goal scorers was 2014/2015.

Since 2014/2015, the habs have had only more than two 20 goal scorers once.

Also, I think a "5 and under category" shouldn't be the first option in the poll. It should be 3, then 5.

Anyone expect five 20 goal scorers should really adjust their expectations. The habs only made the playoffs twice in the last 5 years and would have missed last season if not for the COVID tournament.

The 2018/2019 lightning had 5 players with 20 goals or more and that was a very, very deep team that scored a lot of goals. The 2007/2008 habs was one of its highest scoring teams in recent memory and they only 4 20 goal scorers.

Funny, for as bad as our season was last year, we had 7 guys on the 20 goal fringe. 0.23 goals/game or higher. And yeah, Drouin and Kovalchuk played less than 30 games for us.

* 5 or less is a safe bet.
* 6 is reachable
* 7 would be impressive
* 8 would be the latest since the Rangers in 93/94.
* Anything more than 8 is overly optimistic in the modern NHL

We have to consider that we are not top heavy and we stand to spread out our attack more than any other team IMO.

 

[Andy]

Funny, for as bad as our season was last year, we had 7 guys on the 20 goal fringe. 0.23 goals/game or higher. And yeah, Drouin and Kovalchuk played less than 30 games for us.

* 5 or less is a safe bet.
* 6 is reachable
* 7 would be impressive
* 8 would be the latest since the Rangers in 93/94.

We have to consider that we are not top heavy and we stand to spread out our attack more than any other team IMO.

5 or less is a huge category, of course it's a safe bet.

3 or less is a safe bet.

Five 14 goal scorers would be impressive.

Seven would make the habs one of the best offensive teams in the league, which quite frankly, I just don't see. I mean, there is always a chance, but I just can't drink that level of Kool-aid.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Assuming healthy seasons

Sure shot:
Gallagher
Tatar

Probably:
Suzuki
Anderson

Maybe:
Toffoli
Weber

Not likely:
Drouin
Kotkaniemi
Byron

Would be very surprised:
Armia
Danault
Lehkonen

I voted 6-8, but after looking at it, I'm changing it to 5. Gallagher, Tatar, Suzuki, Anderson and Toffoli are my bets.

You see it the way I see it. Outside chance at 6-8 but if we are going to make any noise this season with the changes we made and how we will roll lines, we will be disappointed if it's 5 or less IMO.

For the record, 7 guys were on the 20 goal fringe last year (0.23 goals/game or higher) so we are not far off or it's considered a pipe dream.

 

[Vachon23]

I see Anderson Toffoli Gallagher Tatar

 

[TT1]

ill go with 6-8, we're gonna have a good year

 

[Andy]

For the record, 7 guys were on the 20 goal fringe last year (0.23 goals/game or higher) so we are not far off or it's considered a pipe dream.

It's not the same context though. The habs did not have the same number of actual goal scorers that they currently have. That resulted in a spread of offensive opportunities. They just added two bonafide goal scorers in Anderson and Toffoli. They will likely eat up offensive opportunities that other tweeners got last season because of a lack of bonafide goal scorers. Plus we're assuming no injuries.

The only way I see 5 14 goal scorers as a safe bet is if league wide scoring goes up because of more games against divisional rivals. In that sense, we'd have to look at the five goal scorers in context.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

There is only one puck and a limited amount of game time.

It's often the case that when a team adds a goal scorer to the lineup that another goal scorer sees a reduction in goals because of basic game limitations.

If 14 goals is a 20 goal equivalent, I could see three habs reaching that threshold by the end of the season. I'd guess Gallagher, Toffoli and Anderson will hit those totals.

You also need to factor in injuries.

The last time the habs had more than three 20 goal scorers was 2014/2015.

Since 2014/2015, the habs have had only more than two 20 goal scorers once.

Also, I think a "5 and under category" shouldn't be the first option in the poll. It should be 3, then 5.

Anyone expect five 20 goal scorers should really adjust their expectations. The habs only made the playoffs twice in the last 5 years and would have missed last season if not for the COVID tournament.

The 2018/2019 lightning had 5 players with 20 goals or more and that was a very, very deep team that scored a lot of goals. The 2007/2008 habs was one of its highest scoring teams in recent memory and they only 4 20 goal scorers.

Amen. We also roll 4 lines so less opportunities to take shots, therefore less goals. Our PP is nothing to write home about too. Chemistry is not to be underestimated too. Cole took a while to get going when he came here.

The only thing that could help is that according to Dom, the analytics guy, the Canadian division is expected to be the one with the most scoring according to his model.

 

[Habs Halifax]

5 or less is a huge category, of course it's a safe bet.

3 or less is a safe bet.

Five 14 goal scorers would be impressive.

Seven would make the habs one of the best offensive teams in the league, which quite frankly, I just don't see. I mean, there is always a chance, but I just can't drink that level of Kool-aid.

* We had 6 guys last year with 0.24 goals per game or higher. Two of them played less than 30 games though. Weber had 0.23 goals/game (19 goals). Considering that our PP sucked and we had a horrible season, we didn't do that bad in that area.

* We had 6 guys with 0.24 goals per game or higher in 18/19. Three other guys from 0.22-0.24 range. 8 guys with 18 or more goals (prorated). That's impressive and I didn't realize it until I looked.

Think about it a bit more in terms of our strategy of rolling lines. I'm sticking with 6-8 guys cause I feel if it's less than 5, we will miss the playoffs

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's not the same context though. The habs did not have the same number of actual goal scorers that they currently have. That resulted in a spread of offensive opportunities. They just added two bonafide goal scorers in Anderson and Toffoli. They will likely eat up offensive opportunities that other tweeners got last season because of a lack of bonafide goal scorers. Plus we're assuming no injuries.

The only way I see 5 14 goal scorers as a safe bet is if league wide scoring goes up because of more games against divisional rivals. In that sense, we'd have to look at the five goal scorers in context.

I think we have a better roster than 18/19 and look at these stats (see below). 8 guys with 18 goals or more and look at that ice time.... it's spread out. You need to rethink it through. If we only have less than 5 guys, we likely miss the playoffs cause I doubt we have several 30+ goal guys. We are not build top heavy. 0.24 goals/game is a 20 goal season. 6 guys in 18/19 and that's with a shitty PP too!

 

[TannedBum]

Would be very surprised:
Armia
Danault
Lehkonen

Danault and Lehkonen yes, but Armia scored that pace last season while playing with scrubs most of the time. Nothing surprising there.

 

[SakuKoivu11]

Anderson
Toffoli
Gallagher
Tatar
Suzuki

I say 5

 

[Treb]

Danault and Lehkonen yes, but Armia scored that pace last season while playing with scrubs most of the time. Nothing surprising there.

It was also the only year he did so. Combined with our increased depth decreasing his ice-time, I expect him to be in the 10-13 range.

 

[Habs Halifax]

ill go with 6-8, we're gonna have a good year

I think that if we have 5 or less, we miss the playoffs to be honest.... they way we are built. So basically almost 70% of the people that voted think we miss the playoffs and don't even realize it. We will be lucky to have two guys or more with 30+ goals. Julien will roll lines. Look at post 37 (18/19 season where we just missed the playoffs).

 

[Habs Halifax]

Anderson
Toffoli
Gallagher
Tatar
Suzuki

I say 5

If that is true, we might miss the playoffs if that happens IMO. We need it to be 6-8 guys they way we will spread out ice time.

 

[Kriss E]

I think we have a better roster than 18/19 and look at these stats (see below). 8 guys with 18 goals or more and look at that ice time.... it's spread out. You need to rethink it through. If we only have less than 5 guys, we likely miss the playoffs cause I doubt we have several 30+ goal guys. We are not build top heavy. 0.24 goals/game is a 20 goal season. 6 guys in 18/19 and that's with a shitty PP too!

Look at Armia's ice time for instance, 16min...I'm not so sure he's going to get that much time this year. Byron at 14:30, I'll be pissed if he plays that much this season.

You can't just compare rosters like this, just looking at g/gp.

Question is how many players will score 15 this year. Not their ratio if they play 26 games due to injuries.

I think a safe bet is 4-5. I'm hoping at least two of those are going to be in the 25g range, two more around 20, one around 15. Couple around 11-12, and then under.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Look at Armia's ice time for instance, 16min...I'm not so sure he's going to get that much time this year. Byron at 14:30, I'll be pissed if he plays that much this season.

You can't just compare rosters like this, just looking at g/gp.

Question is how many players will score 15 this year. Not their ratio if they play 26 games due to injuries.

I think a safe bet is 4-5. I'm hoping at least two of those are going to be in the 25g range, two more around 20, one around 15. Couple around 11-12, and then under.

6 guys did it in 18/19. 0.24 goals per game or higher. All them played more than 56 games. We missed the playoffs

 

[26Mats]

Tatar has benefitted from a team with little scoring depth. His offensive leaning probably dwindles a little bit now that they've brought in Anderson and Toffoli.

Like I said, often, adding goal scorers results in someone else scoring less since there is a limited amount of offensive opportunities, one puck and only 60 minutes. I think Tatar is one of those guys that sees a slight drop this season because he has to share offensive opportunities with Toffoli and Anderson.

On the one hand, it's possible he loses some pp time and offensive zone starts.

On the other, the Danault line will get much less attention from the opposition now that there will be at least one, if not 2 more high quality offensive lines behind them.

As long as Tatar is playing with Gallagher, and Gallagher is playing like his old self (not the version with the torn hip muscle we saw in the playoffs), I think he'll be a low 20 goal scorer and point producer at minimum - which is what the poll is asking. He's scored at a 20+ goal pace every year since 2013-2014... i.e. since his first full year in the NHL.

 

[26Mats]

6 guys did it in 18/19. 0.24 goals per game or higher. All them played more than 56 games. We missed the playoffs

Armia got 16 in 58 games last year. If he keeps his spot on the "3rd line", no reason he can't get 15 (or 13 or 14) in 56 games.

I think Toffoli will be moving up into the top 6. But Armia should be still playing with good players on the "3rd line"

 

[Kriss E]

6 guys did it in 18/19. 0.24 goals per game or higher. All them played more than 56 games. We missed the playoffs

It's not impossible, I'm at 4 as a safe bet. There's a lot of uncertainty this season. A lot of changes, no idea how they'll distribute ice time. Playing in a new division with a very different schedule, not sure how they'll handle 4 games in 5 nights, or 6 nights.

Guess we will see.

 

[Kriss E]

On the one hand, it's possible he loses some pp time and offensive zone starts.

On the other, the Danault line will get much less attention from the opposition now that there will be at least one, if not 2 more high quality offensive lines behind them.

As long as Tatar is playing with Gallagher, and Gallagher is playing like his old self (not the version with the torn hip muscle we saw in the playoffs), I think he'll be a low 20 goal scorer and point producer at minimum - which is what the poll is asking. He's scored at a 20+ goal pace every year since 2013-2014... i.e. since his first full year in the NHL.

Assuming all three lines do well, if one struggle then we're not that much better off.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Armia got 16 in 58 games last year. If he keeps his spot on the "3rd line", no reason he can't get 15 (or 13 or 14) in 56 games.

I think Toffoli will be moving up into the top 6. But Armia should be still playing with good players on the "3rd line"

The more I look into it, the more I feel we need 6-8 guys who score 20 goals (prorated). In 18/19, we had 6 guys with 20 goals (prorated but at least 50 games) and we missed the playoffs.

 

[26Mats]

Assuming all three lines do well, if one struggle then we're not that much better off.

In the past, we had 10 top 9 forwards. So, as soon as we had 2 or more injuries, we had guys like Cousins, Weal, and Agostino come into the top 9. Or, after the Danault line, we had Domi playing with Byron and Lehkonen.

This year we have at least 12 top 9 forwards - yes Byron, Lehkonen, and even Evans can all step into the top 9 when there are injuries. Byron and Lehkonen shouldn't be in the top 6, on the same line. But in short spurts one can even fill in in the top 6 if the guy playing RW and C are legitimate offensive players. Plus there's Perry and Frolik who just may have something left.

I don't see why we can't wear teams down with wave after wave of offensive pressure. On paper, if any team can have 6+ 20 goal scorers over 82 games (i.e. 13-15 goals over 56 games) it's this one.

But this all has to come to fruition on the ice. Nothing has happened yet.