Playoffs, Draft and lotto format announced - Are you happy with the format for the habs, or no?

[bobholly39]

Specifically from a habs perspective - are you happy with the proposed changes?

To summarize these are the possible paths for us as of today:

1. We beat Pittsburgh Penguins - and qualify for the playoffs. End result - our draft position ends up anywhere from 16 to 31 - depending on how far we go in the playoffs (as it would for any other playoff year)

2. We lose to Pittsburgh - and 1, 2 or 3 of the top 3 picks are awarded to teams who lose the 'play-in'. This gives us a 12.5% chance at that pick (up to 37.5% chance at top 3, if all 3 picks are won by teams 17-24). So - this means we can still end up picking 1st overall, 2nd overall, or third overall.

End result: if we win pick 1, 2 or 3, we pick there. If we don't, we're bumped to 9th, 10th or 11th depending on how many teams pass us in the lotto.

3. We lose to Pittsburgh - but all top 3 picks are won by teams slotted 25-31. We pick 8th overall, as it would have been with no 24 team playoffs.

Are you happy with this from a Habs perspective?

Click to read more...

 

[nhlfan9191]

I’m upset if we drop out of the top 10 but I’ll have a hard time cheering against us when the actual thing happens so I don’t know how to really feel about it right at this moment.

 

[sheed36]

No I'm not happy with this current revised draft lottery. I'd rather have what looked like the guaranteed top 10 pick and the 19% chance or whatever it was the Habs had for possibly moving up and drafting top 3 in the regular draft lottery.

 

[Just Linda]

Dom from the athletic wrote a piece about this. We had a 19 percent chance of having a top 3 pick, a 6 percent chance of 1oa. Now we have a 6.2 percent chance of having a top 3 pick and a 1.9 percent chance of getting 1oa. Meanwhile out Stanley Cup odds went from 0% to 0.4%.

Those aren't good odds, we lost so much asset advantage.

 

[bobholly39]

I'll start by saying - YES - i'm very happy for us.

Playoffs is a hail mary. We didn't deserve it - but we're being told "hey - beat this team, and you're in". I know there's a lot of negativity around here usually - but when the rails started falling off the season earlier in the year, if we had been told "hey - if you beat this team, you're in the playoffs" - I know I personally would have taken it. So i'm certainly happy being given a second chance.

Lotto odds - we'll know before the play-ins if #1, 2 or 3 picks are in-play. I'm far from a pro-tanker - but if last season as we were fighting for a playoff spot in the last few weeks of the season, if we had known before season ended that if Habs miss - we win a lotto picks (or - have between a 12.5% to 37.5% chance at once) - that would have been a hell of a consolation prize. And if no lotto picks are won - than screw it, i definitely want to win no matter what. So - I think knowing this beforehand, especially if no lotto picks are won by teams 24-17th - will be a big plus.

Odds of us winning a lotto pick under normal circumstances was 6%. Seems like a super long shot. I like the fact that all teams 24-17ths are being gathered in a pool with a 24.5% chance to win either pick. I think the math translates to giving us a 3% overall chance per pick vs 6% - which is less - but I still feel like i like this 2 round approach better for us. Because with 6% odds, I feel like we'd never win. 12.5% if we make it to round 2 is more promising.

And - as someone who always wants to make the playoffs and argues we'd have a 'puncher's chance' once in - I think the unique circumstances with this season give us some strong consideration for an upset. So i'd love to see us actually win against Pitt and do good - and i'm glad we're being given the chance.

So how does everyone else feel about it?

 

[WeThreeKings]

In every capacity it sucks.

 

[scrubadam]

As this pandemic showed us, life can change on a whim. Sports are meant to entertain us. I am happy that hockey is back and I will be able to cheer the habs on. After months of lock down thats what matters. As if we were really going to win the lottery. 6% 1% 10% the odds are stacked either way.

Lifes to short to think about 5 yeras from now. And odds are we end up with the 3rd OVA and pick another KK/AG and then talk about the 4th or 5th pick that we should of taken instead.

 

[ahmedou]

 

[Kriss E]

Specifically from a habs perspective - are you happy with the proposed changes?

To summarize these are the possible paths for us as of today:

1. We beat Pittsburgh Penguins - and qualify for the playoffs. End result - our draft position ends up anywhere from 16 to 31 - depending on how far we go in the playoffs (as it would for any other playoff year)

2. We lose to Pittsburgh - and 1, 2 or 3 of the top 3 picks are awarded to teams who lose the 'play-in'. This gives us a 12.5% chance at that pick (up to 37.5% chance at top 3, if all 3 picks are won by teams 17-24). So - this means we can still end up picking 1st overall, 2nd overall, or third overall.

End result: if we win pick 1, 2 or 3, we pick there. If we don't, we're bumped to 9th, 10th or 11th depending on how many teams pass us in the lotto.

3. We lose to Pittsburgh - but all top 3 picks are won by teams slotted 25-31. We pick 8th overall, as it would have been with no 24 team playoffs.

Are you happy with this from a Habs perspective?

It's so complicated for no reason whatsoever.
As mentioned above too, our odds of getting a better draft pick haven't improved, they've worsened and all this so we can play in this dumb summer tournament and lose.

If the Pens somehow end up with a top 3 pick while we lose in a 1st or 2nd round....I'm gonna be fuming.

 

[CHfan1]

I'll start by saying - YES - i'm very happy for us.

Playoffs is a hail mary. We didn't deserve it - but we're being told "hey - beat this team, and you're in". I know there's a lot of negativity around here usually - but when the rails started falling off the season earlier in the year, if we had been told "hey - if you beat this team, you're in the playoffs" - I know I personally would have taken it. So i'm certainly happy being given a second chance.

Lotto odds - we'll know before the play-ins if #1, 2 or 3 picks are in-play. I'm far from a pro-tanker - but if last season as we were fighting for a playoff spot in the last few weeks of the season, if we had known before season ended that if Habs miss - we win a lotto picks (or - have between a 12.5% to 37.5% chance at once) - that would have been a hell of a consolation prize. And if no lotto picks are won - than screw it, i definitely want to win no matter what. So - I think knowing this beforehand, especially if no lotto picks are won by teams 24-17th - will be a big plus.

Odds of us winning a lotto pick under normal circumstances was 6%. Seems like a super long shot. I like the fact that all teams 24-17ths are being gathered in a pool with a 24.5% chance to win either pick. I think the math translates to giving us a 3% overall chance per pick vs 6% - which is less - but I still feel like i like this 2 round approach better for us. Because with 6% odds, I feel like we'd never win. 12.5% if we make it to round 2 is more promising.

And - as someone who always wants to make the playoffs and argues we'd have a 'puncher's chance' once in - I think the unique circumstances with this season give us some strong consideration for an upset. So i'd love to see us actually win against Pitt and do good - and i'm glad we're being given the chance.

So how does everyone else feel about it?

Odds under normal circumstances for a top 3 pick was 19%, it was 6% for the 1st pick.

 

[bobholly39]

Dom from the athletic wrote a piece about this. We had a 19 percent chance of having a top 3 pick, a 6 percent chance of 1oa. Now we have a 6.2 percent chance of having a top 3 pick and a 1.9 percent chance of getting 1oa. Meanwhile out Stanley Cup odds went from 0% to 0.4%.

Those aren't good odds, we lost so much asset advantage.

Can you explain the math?

Are you factoring in the odds of us winning vs losing against Pittsburgh - or are you saying "if we lose - those are our odds". Because if it's the latter the #s don't make sense.

We go from a 6% chance at #1 overall to a 3% chance.

 

[scrubadam]

I'll start by saying - YES - i'm very happy for us.

Playoffs is a hail mary. We didn't deserve it - but we're being told "hey - beat this team, and you're in". I know there's a lot of negativity around here usually - but when the rails started falling off the season earlier in the year, if we had been told "hey - if you beat this team, you're in the playoffs" - I know I personally would have taken it. So i'm certainly happy being given a second chance.

Lotto odds - we'll know before the play-ins if #1, 2 or 3 picks are in-play. I'm far from a pro-tanker - but if last season as we were fighting for a playoff spot in the last few weeks of the season, if we had known before season ended that if Habs miss - we win a lotto picks (or - have between a 12.5% to 37.5% chance at once) - that would have been a hell of a consolation prize. And if no lotto picks are won - than screw it, i definitely want to win no matter what. So - I think knowing this beforehand, especially if no lotto picks are won by teams 24-17th - will be a big plus.

Odds of us winning a lotto pick under normal circumstances was 6%. Seems like a super long shot. I like the fact that all teams 24-17ths are being gathered in a pool with a 24.5% chance to win either pick. I think the math translates to giving us a 3% overall chance per pick vs 6% - which is less - but I still feel like i like this 2 round approach better for us. Because with 6% odds, I feel like we'd never win. 12.5% if we make it to round 2 is more promising.

And - as someone who always wants to make the playoffs and argues we'd have a 'puncher's chance' once in - I think the unique circumstances with this season give us some strong consideration for an upset. So i'd love to see us actually win against Pitt and do good - and i'm glad we're being given the chance.

So how does everyone else feel about it?

Time to enjoy hockey and hope the habs can do something special and give this city a lift after all the death its seen.

We all have probably spent too much time these last few months looking at numbers and % trying to figure out death rates and infection rates etc... (mod)

 

[yoteshot]

Dom from the athletic wrote a piece about this. We had a 19 percent chance of having a top 3 pick, a 6 percent chance of 1oa. Now we have a 6.2 percent chance of having a top 3 pick and a 1.9 percent chance of getting 1oa. Meanwhile out Stanley Cup odds went from 0% to 0.4%.

Those aren't good odds, we lost so much asset advantage.

This article made my blood boil in my veins. Habs are getting completely screwed for that 0,4% odds at the Stanley cup. Going from 19% chance at a top 3 to 6% is a total joke. At this point, I just hope they lose and the top 3 goes to bottom 7 teams not in our division. ANA-LA-NJ, I'm counting on you!

 

[WeThreeKings]

View attachment 347837

THEY GOT THA DRANK

 

[Adam Michaels]

I don't hate it. But I think the draft lottery is complicated for no reason. If the Entry Draft will be held after the NHL Playoffs, then what is the rush about having one lottery draft and then potentially another phase? For me, it would be simple to just wait after the Play-In Series is over and you have all 15 teams determined. And you hold the draft lottery with the same odds as every other year.

I feel like they were overthinking it and it ended up confusing a lot of people.

As for the playoff format, it goes without saying, Montreal does not belong in there. But now it is set in stone and I don't mind watching a few more games.

 

[Just Linda]

Can you explain the math?

Are you factoring in the odds of us winning vs losing against Pittsburgh - or are you saying "if we lose - those are our odds". Because if it's the latter the #s don't make sense.

We go from a 6% chance at #1 overall to a 3% chance.

That is factored in.

Also, all the play-in losers have the same odds now of winning the lotto. So Habs would have the same odds as Calgary or Winnipeg if one of them lost.

 

[OnTheRun]

We got bent, plain and simple.

Thing will get really ugly if placeholder "Team A" win the first pick in a month.

 

[CHfan1]

We got bent, plain and simple.

Thing will get really ugly if placeholder "Team A" win the first pick in a month.

I don’t think the NHL will say which placeholder team won the lottery. They would just say one of the teams 8-15 won it and there will be a phase 2 lottery.

 

[Justin11]

Total BS, nothing more to add.

 

[OnTheRun]

I don’t think the NHL will say which placeholder team won the lottery. They would just say one of the teams 8-15 won it and there will be a phase 2 lottery.

They would kinda lose the ability to make a show out of phase 2 if they do that.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Just for the fact we get totally screwed in our odds in phase 2, is a big fat no

 

[L4br3cqu3]

What's happening is just an all too real joke, and damn, let's say we manage to win the Stanley Cup, there will forever be an * beside it.

We better lose in the 1st round, for our own sake, we need that 8th overall pick (or those warped top-3 odds) more than to appease management or those 'superfans' ego, and also perhaps to remind those delusional enough to think that with a 'healthy Price' we have a chance for everything, while we were bottom-10 with a healthy Price, so yeah.

 

[OldCraig71]

THEY GOT THA DRANK

With plenty O stank!

 

[OldCraig71]

Yuck.

 

[Le Tricolore]

If the Habs do well in the playoffs or in the draft, I'll be happy.

If they don't (and another one of the play-in teams win the lotto), I'll be annoyed, I guess.

Overall, I can't be too upset. This season is a huge mess. I don't get why they're dong the lottery before the play-in round is done and not have a second lottery, but whatever.