Playoffs, Draft and lotto format announced - Are you happy with the format for the habs, or no?

[bobholly39]

What are our odds if we win the first two? Lose them? Tie them? Figure that one out. To me the first round is irrelevant to the odds of the draft, which will always be 12.5%. We either get there or we don't.

Who cares though? Clearly that would change. But as of today, we're the most likely out of the 16 teams to qualify for those 12.5% odds, and so as of today we are the team with the greatest likelihood of ending up with Lafreniere. It's obviously close with other teams too - but that's still a much more realistic chance at landing Lafreniere than I felt we've had at any point since the 2019-2020 season started a year ago.

I'm happy about that, since I've always felt landing #1 overall was a pipe dream - today it seems actually possible. Clearly others are offended by that sentiment though.

 

[bobholly39]

Things will break our way if we get him.

You're also, yet again cherry picking. I was also pissed at our 20% odds of getting a top 3 pick being cut in half to 10%. Guess what? Now we have 12,5% of getting a top 3 pick, still much lower than what we had.

For me it's not just about Lafreniere, it's about getting a high pick.

It's also about other things likely to happen outside the Habs, like teams with already many stars potentially getting to pick Lafreniere.

Well to the bolded - if there had been no phase 2 in place, we would have already lost any top 3 picks. LA and Ott got #2 and #3 and Winnipeg (team E) got #1. So we'd be sitting at 0% chance at a top 3 pick today.
Now with phase 2 - it's worked out great for us.

You guys were all pissed when they announced it in May because our odds overall were reduced. At that time I felt like it was an ok compromise because we also got a shot at the playoffs - but most people here didn't care about playoffs and just wanted higher odds. I understood that, even though I didn't agree.

But today - it's obvious that phase 2 has worked out great for us. No it doesn't mean we 100% land Lafreniere, obviously not - but we have a better chance at getting him today than we had at any point in the past season, ever, and are the most likely of teams to land him (if only by a pretty small margin). Why shouldn't that be a good thing?

Personally if we don't get him i don't care who does, if it's a top team with stars or not - but if you want to maintain the right to get pissed if a team like Toronto or Edmonton ends up with Laf instead of us, go ahead. I know many others have expressed similar sentiments too.

 

[peate]

But as of today, we're the most likely out of the 16 teams to qualify for those 12.5% odds

Along with 7 other teams.

 

[Ozmodiar]

I’d rather a 19% chance at a top 3 pick than a 12.5% chance at #1.

... without even accounting for the possibility that the Habs could beat the Pens.

what annoys me about the format is that some playoff caliber teams - as proven over a large sample size of games - will get a decent shot at #1.

Meanwhile, a lousy team like the Habs could plummet to 16th based on a very small number of games. Usually, non playoff teams can only drop a few spots.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I’d rather a 19% chance at a top 3 pick than a 12.5% chance at #1.

... without even accounting for the possibility that the Habs could beat the Pens.

what annoys me about the format is that some playoff caliber teams - as proven over a large sample size of games - will get a decent shot at #1.

Meanwhile, a lousy team like the Habs could plummet to 16th based on a very small number of games. Usually, non playoff teams can only drop a few spots.

Im gonna reduce down everything you just said to irrational negative bias

You should be content getting 12,5% chance at Lafreniere no matter everything else.

 

[bobholly39]

I’d rather a 19% chance at a top 3 pick than a 12.5% chance at #1.

... without even accounting for the possibility that the Habs could beat the Pens.

what annoys me about the format is that some playoff caliber teams - as proven over a large sample size of games - will get a decent shot at #1.

Meanwhile, a lousy team like the Habs could plummet to 16th based on a very small number of games. Usually, non playoff teams can only drop a few spots.

Well, phase 1 already happened. And we lost on all 3 counts. Winnipeg (team E) won #1. So in reality - it would have been a 0% shot at a top 3 pick today (since we already lost) - or a 12.5% chance at #1 if we lose to Pittsburgh (as it is now).

We're better off this way.

Yes - if we beat Pens only to lose right away in round 1, we go down to #16 and that would be quite disappointing.

 

[Doc McKenna]

Things will break our way if we get him.

You're also, yet again cherry picking. I was also pissed at our 20% odds of getting a top 3 pick being cut in half to 10%. Guess what? Now we have 12,5% of getting a top 3 pick, still much lower than what we had.

For me it's not just about Lafreniere, it's about getting a high pick.

It's also about other things likely to happen outside the Habs, like teams with already many stars potentially getting to pick Lafreniere.

The last 10 games of the season could also have brought us lower in the standings, and all our stockpiled picks would have been better overall. I am not sure where we draft second round 39? or do we draft in relation to our post season finish? I am 90% certain it has nothing to do with our draft lotto position.

Imagine Toronto loses first round and gets Laf. They have the same 12.5% odds for whoever loses first round. How about the oilers. Just notch another first overall pick to that team. If we somehow beat the pens and they win laf....well lets just say I will revisit this thread if it isn't locked.

Here is a question, do first round team that move on have better or worse odds at the cup. One could say they are more tired from more hockey, or perhaps they are already shaking off the rust and have better odds by being more prepared. I don't mean bookie odds, I mean realistically what effect does that first round have on these teams. Its why this whole thing is a farce that WILL have an astrix next to whatever team win the Stanely cup. On top of that it pushes next season back by months.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

The last 10 games of the season could also have brought us lower in the standings, and all our stockpiled picks would have been better overall. I am not sure where we draft second round 39? or do we draft in relation to our post season finish? I am 90% certain it has nothing to do with our draft lotto position.

Imagine Toronto loses first round and gets Laf. They have the same 12.5% odds for whoever loses first round. How about the oilers. Just notch another first overall pick to that team. If we somehow beat the pens and they win laf....well lets just say I will revisit this thread if it isn't locked.

Here is a question, do first round team that move on have better or worse odds at the cup. One could say they are more tired from more hockey, or perhaps they are already shaking off the rust and have better odds by being more prepared. I don't mean bookie odds, I mean realistically what effect does that first round have on these teams. Its why this whole thing is a farce that WILL have an astrix next to whatever team win the Stanely cup. On top of that it pushes next season back by months.

Since the regular season is almost nulled by the covid break, I guess bookies rely on matchups and 100% team strenghts.

 

[Doc McKenna]

Since the regular season is almost nulled by the covid break, I guess bookies rely on matchups and 100% team strenghts.

So where do we draft second round?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So where do we draft second round?

Don't know...

But if I have to guess, it follows the same procedure as the 1st round.

If it all gets cancelled, we'll pick 1st or 9th, and pick 40th in the 2nd.

Same if we lose to pitts.

If we win the play-in, 16th minimum, so 47th minimum for the 2nd round

 

[Doc McKenna]

Don't know...

But if I have to guess, it follows the same procedure as the 1st round.

If it all gets cancelled, we'll pick 1st or 9th, and pick 40th in the 2nd.

Same if we lose to pitts.

If we win the play-in, 16th minimum, so 47th minimum for the 2nd round

Ouch. that would be a waste of a very painful season. I know all my Redwing friends are super pissed off. But yet still brag about all the cups they have had the last 25 years...Sorry guys going back to Dead Things status for a while more. No second coming of Stevie Y. Though they are still getting 4th overall. And the top 5 are suppose to be very good, just not Laf good.

 

[Schooner Guy]

What are our odds if we win the first two? Lose them? Tie them? Figure that one out. To me the first round is irrelevant to the odds of the draft, which will always be 12.5%. We either get there or we don't.

That's not how probability works. There are two events at play here. Event A (Pens beat Habs) has to happen before Habs get to Event B where 12.5% odds are at play. This means that the Habs odds of landing Laffy are currently below 12.5%.

The only way Habs odds of getting Lafreniere would be exactly 12.5% before Habs-Pens series takes place is if there was a 100% probability that Pens beat Habs.

And yes the odds do change if Habs win the first two games or lose the first two games as it shifts the probability percentages of Event A. However Habs odds of landing Laffy will never reach 12.5% until they lose the series.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Ouch. that would be a waste of a very painful season. I know all my Redwing friends are super pissed off. But yet still brag about all the cups they have had the last 25 years...Sorry guys going back to Dead Things status for a while more. No second coming of Stevie Y. Though they are still getting 4th overall. And the top 5 are suppose to be very good, just not Laf good.

I don't think they'll the Dead Wings for as long as they were before Yzerman, Fedorov and Lidstrom.

 

[peate]

This means that the Habs odds of landing Laffy are currently below 12.5%.

That's where you lose it. In today's game, a 5 game series can go either way. There are no odds involved. You either win, in which case our chances at Laff are nil, or lose and we're on equal footing with the other 7 teams.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Well, phase 1 already happened. And we lost on all 3 counts. Winnipeg (team E) won #1. So in reality - it would have been a 0% shot at a top 3 pick today (since we already lost) - or a 12.5% chance at #1 if we lose to Pittsburgh (as it is now).

We're better off this way.

Yes - if we beat Pens only to lose right away in round 1, we go down to #16 and that would be quite disappointing.

a couple of things to consider...

- if I don’t like the format, I’m not going to change my mind and suddenly like it because it starts to turn in our favour.

- you say we’re better off this way. This is still debatable. If you’re to believe the odds makers, the Habs have roughly a 39% chance of beating the Pens. There’s still a very good chance they pick 16th. The old format would have the Habs locked in at 9 OA.

 

[Schooner Guy]

That's where you lose it. In today's game, a 5 game series can go either way. There are no odds involved. You either win, in which case our chances at Laff are nil, or lose and we're on equal footing with the other 7 teams.

Even if it was 50/50 between Habs-Pens (which it isn't....check Vegas odds), it's still an event that has to happen before we get to Event B where the 12.5% odds exist. This means the odds of us getting Laffy are right now below 12.5%. This is basic probability that most of us took in Grade 10 math.

 

[peate]

Even if it was 50/50 between Habs-Pens (which it isn't....check Vegas odds), it's still an event that has to happen before we get to Event B where the 12.5% odds exist. This means the odds of us getting Laffy are right now below 12.5%. This is basic probability that most of us took in Grade 10 math.

Looking at it that way, sure it might be below, but the Vegas odds are based on probabilities arising from line-ups, injuries and past results, no? Whereas the lottery is a fixed 12.5%

 

[Schooner Guy]

Looking at it that way, sure it might be below, but the Vegas odds are based on probabilities arising from line-ups, injuries and past results, no? Whereas the lottery is a fixed 12.5%

You are absolutely correct on the variability of Vegas odds which are based on factors you mentioned. The 12.5% is indeed fixed. However we must lose to the Pens first which means until then, the odds of us getting #1 pick are below 12.5%.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

You are absolutely correct on the variability of Vegas odds which are based on factors you mentioned. The 12.5% is indeed fixed. However we must lose to the Pens first which means until then, the odds of us getting #1 pick are below 12.5%.

Hmm... probabilities stand at half 12.5%.. 6.25%... but Habs stand a better chance of losing than the 15 other teams, raising that percentage to who knows how much.

 

[Omar]

Well to the bolded - if there had been no phase 2 in place, we would have already lost any top 3 picks. LA and Ott got #2 and #3 and Winnipeg (team E) got #1. So we'd be sitting at 0% chance at a top 3 pick today.
Now with phase 2 - it's worked out great for us.

You guys were all pissed when they announced it in May because our odds overall were reduced. At that time I felt like it was an ok compromise because we also got a shot at the playoffs - but most people here didn't care about playoffs and just wanted higher odds. I understood that, even though I didn't agree.

But today - it's obvious that phase 2 has worked out great for us. No it doesn't mean we 100% land Lafreniere, obviously not - but we have a better chance at getting him today than we had at any point in the past season, ever, and are the most likely of teams to land him (if only by a pretty small margin). Why shouldn't that be a good thing?

Personally if we don't get him i don't care who does, if it's a top team with stars or not - but if you want to maintain the right to get pissed if a team like Toronto or Edmonton ends up with Laf instead of us, go ahead. I know many others have expressed similar sentiments too.

This is only valid until the series starts so it holds no value. All the percentages change once a game is played so why is this a source of positivity for you? And then when all play-ins are completed, all teams have an equal weight. Your logic doesn’t make any sense, to me at least. Anyone else?

 

[Schooner Guy]

Hmm... probabilities stand at half 12.5%.. 6.25%... but Habs stand a better chance of losing than the 15 other teams, raising that percentage to who knows how much.

Shortly after the lottery, I saw some bookie odds posted somewhere to get Lafreniere and if I remember correctly it had the Habs at about 9%. We had the best odds of any team.

 

[ahmedou]

 

[ahmedou]