Speculation: Playoff matchup discussion

[henchman21]

Last night was huge for the odds against Vegas. If the Avs lost... 4 points in 6 games is hard to pick up, even with a game in hand. 2 in 6 with a game in hand is easily possible. Probably down to the May 10th game.

 

[Richard88]

The Avs really need St Louis to be competent and win at least one of their back-to-back games with Vegas over the weekend. That Vegas regulation loss combined with the Avs comeback win opened the door a bit more.

I'm not really rooting for the Avs first round opponent, I'm rooting for Vegas to get the Wild whom they seem to have a problem with.

Another Minnesota win tomorrow night while we win again against San Jose would have us sitting incredibly pretty in the division race.... tied on points with Vegas with a game in hand, with 4/5 games against LA while they battle it out in a back-to-back against St. Louis.

Unfortunately Minnesota are still in the mix, though the kicker there is that they also have a back-to-back with St. Louis to finish things off.

 

[Ararana]

Not only points but the tie breaker is on the line against Vegas in the final game with them as well. 3-3-1 for the Avs 4-3-0 for the Knights. If they Avs can win that one in regulation I believe they clinch the head-to-head tie breaker thanks to that OT loss.

Though I'm not sure the order of tie breakers in the shortened season.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

The first tiebreaker is the number of games won in the RW column. The Avs own that tiebreaker for now.

 

[henchman21]

The more I watch Minny... the more I want to avoid them in the first. That team is really coming together, and they likely won't win against Vegas or the Avs... but they are going to make that series hell.

 

[Richard88]

Not only points but the tie breaker is on the line against Vegas in the final game with them as well. 3-3-1 for the Avs 4-3-0 for the Knights. If they Avs can win that one in regulation I believe they clinch the head-to-head tie breaker thanks to that OT loss.

Though I'm not sure the order of tie breakers in the shortened season.

Vegas owns most of the tie-breakers, though the most important ones, including points percentage and regulation wins (which are the top two tie-breakers) would probably favour Colorado if we do manage to match Vegas' point total, so as far as I can tell we simply need to match them in points.

1. Vegas has the better points percentage right now - though it would be identical if we win our game in hand.

2. Colorado have 2 more regulation wins.

3. Vegas are ahead on ROW - though again this would be tied if Avs win their game in hand (in regulation or OT, not in shootout).

4. Vegas lead the W column (36 to 34).

5. Vegas currently have won 8 points by going 4-3-0 against Colorado. Avs have 7 points after going 3-3-1 against Vegas. If Colorado win in regulation then they take this tie-breaker, but an OT win means it is level at 9 points each. Technically Avs only had 3 home games vs Vegas' 4 due to the Tahoe game counting as an Avs home game, but doubt that helps in this tiebreaker.

6. Vegas have the tiebreaker in goal difference, +57 to +52.

7. Colorado have more goals scored, 176 to 173.

 

[Richard88]

The more I watch Minny... the more I want to avoid them in the first. That team is really coming together, and they likely won't win against Vegas or the Avs... but they are going to make that series hell.

If Minnesota beat Vegas again in regulation tomorrow night, and Colorado win against San Jose, the standings would be:

1. Colorado 74 pts / 5 games remaining (LA, LA, @VGK, @LA. @LA)
2. Vegas 74 pts / 4 games remaining (STL, STL, COL, @sj)
3. Minny 72 pts / 4 games remaining (ANA, ANA, @STL, @STL)

That set of results and remaining games leaves a possibility for Minnesota to get home-ice against Vegas in round 1. All it would take would be for Minnesota to continue their good run, and for Vegas to lose 2 of 3 against the Blues and Avs. Unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

If that happened it would set up a really interesting matchup between Minnesota and Vegas, especially considering that Vegas have never won in Minnesota including being 0-3-0 there this season.

 

[LostInMosEisley]

Forcing Vegas to play Minnesota in the first round might be the biggest advantage of grabbing the #1 spot.

 

[letsgoavs1921]

The more I watch Minny... the more I want to avoid them in the first. That team is really coming together, and they likely won't win against Vegas or the Avs... but they are going to make that series hell.

Funny, I came to the exact opposite conclusion as I really thought about it last night. Wild or Blues will both be hard, so knowing there is no easy opponent would you rather play a bigger, stronger, more physical team like the Blues? Or a smaller faster team like the Wild? Especially factoring in we may be banged up. I like the matchup against the wild. They are similar to us, just not as good at it. As long as we get from Grubauer what we have all year we would be fine against them. Probably against the blues too

Downside to getting the wild is it means we won't have home ice against Vegas if we get there though.

 

[Richard88]

Funny, I came to the exact opposite conclusion as I really thought about it last night. Wild or Blues will both be hard, so knowing there is no easy opponent would you rather play a bigger, stronger, more physical team like the Blues? Or a smaller faster team like the Wild? Especially factoring in we may be banged up. I like the matchup against the wild. They are similar to us, just not as good at it. As long as we get from Grubauer what we have all year we would be fine against them. Probably against the blues too

Downside to getting the wild is it means we won't have home ice against Vegas if we get there though.

Having home ice in the 2nd round would be important, especially if Vegas have fans back by then, and Minnesota seems to play Vegas well, So I'll go with the Blues in round 1 even though I don't really have a preference between Wild or Blues.

 

[Ararana]

I can't help but look at that strength of schedule down the remaining stretch.

Vegas: MIN, STL, STL, COL, SJ
Minnesota: VGK, ANA, ANA, STL, STL

Then Colorado: SJ, LA, LA, VGK, LA, LA

The Avs just need to win the games they're supposed to win, 5 more games against bottom feeders.If they do that it puts them at 82 points, which forces Vegas to win 4 of their last 5 to tie at 82.

 

[henchman21]

Funny, I came to the exact opposite conclusion as I really thought about it last night. Wild or Blues will both be hard, so knowing there is no easy opponent would you rather play a bigger, stronger, more physical team like the Blues? Or a smaller faster team like the Wild? Especially factoring in we may be banged up. I like the matchup against the wild. They are similar to us, just not as good at it. As long as we get from Grubauer what we have all year we would be fine against them. Probably against the blues too

Downside to getting the wild is it means we won't have home ice against Vegas if we get there though.

Schematically, St Louis is a much, much weaker team. Minny has a top notch coach and better depth than St Louis. St Louis has some pieces that could cause issues (like ROR and Parayko), but Minny has the bottom 9 depth to really give the Avs fits and Kaprizov is a star just waiting for his moment. I don't think either would beat the Avs... but St Louis is a 5 maybe 6 game series. Minny is a series I think goes at least 6 and they will exploit some weaknesses in the Avs' system for teams down the line to take advantage of.

 

[Richard88]

I can't help but look at that strength of schedule down the remaining stretch.

Vegas: MIN, STL, STL, COL, SJ
Minnesota: VGK, ANA, ANA, STL, STL

Then Colorado: SJ, LA, LA, VGK, LA, LA

The Avs just need to win the games they're supposed to win, 5 more games against bottom feeders.If they do that it puts them at 82 points, which forces Vegas to win 4 of their last 5 to tie at 82.

If Avs and Vegas tie at 82 points Avs would have the tie-breaker based on more regulation wins, assuming that Vegas don't win in regulation more than one time more than the Avs do in the remaining games.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I can't help but look at that strength of schedule down the remaining stretch.

Vegas: MIN, STL, STL, COL, SJ
Minnesota: VGK, ANA, ANA, STL, STL

Then Colorado: SJ, LA, LA, VGK, LA, LA

The Avs just need to win the games they're supposed to win, 5 more games against bottom feeders.If they do that it puts them at 82 points, which forces Vegas to win 4 of their last 5 to tie at 82.

It’s shaping up decently well. They need to win that Vegas game. That’s the big one obviously.

It’s too bad four of the six games are on the road. That could make for a loss, or two against those weaker teams. Colorado is a decent road team as far as the playoff teams go, but they’re a monster at home.

 

[Ararana]

It’s shaping up decently well. They need to win that Vegas game. That’s the big one obviously.

It’s too bad four of the six games are on the road. That could make for a loss, or two against those weaker teams. Colorado is a decent road team as far as the playoff teams go, but they’re a monster at home.

I think the bigger factor is the four LA games are two back to backs. It's hard to take both games of a back to back, especially when JJ is probably getting two of them.

But even so, LA should be eliminated by that points. Need to win those games.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

When are the playoffs starting?

 

[Balthazar]

Welp, the Avs are now 3-4-0 in the last 7 games and one of the 3 wins was a dramatic OT win against an eliminated bottom team.

Now we're pretty certain to get Minnesota, who looked like they'd give Vegas a run for their money in round 1.

 

[Ararana]

If I had to choose between Minnesota and St. Louis for the Avs first round matchup I’d probably choose Minnesota but damn I wanted to throw them at Vegas who seems to have a real problem with them.

 

[Richard88]

If I had to choose between Minnesota and St. Louis for the Avs first round matchup I’d probably choose Minnesota but damn I wanted to throw them at Vegas who seems to have a real problem with them.

Don't worry, Minnesota will give Vegas a good test... in round 2...

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Stl needs 1 more win and 1 more LA loss to clench. After that, they can't catch anyone ahead of them, so they'll be resting guys for Game 1, and they finish with B2B with Minny. That's not good for Colorado.

Minny gets B2B vs last place Anaheim, 3 days off, and then B2B vs a Stl. team that, like I said, will likely be resting guys and not really giving a shit if they win either of those. Again, not good for Colorado.

LA is gonna give the Avs all they can handle as long as they're still alive. They've won 4 of their last 6, albeit vs. Anaheim and Arizona.

Avs really put themselves behind the 8-ball in the last week. You can pretty much forget about 1st place right now, unless Vegas loses 2 out of their last 4... yeah, probably not happening, although Stl. will be desperate for at least 1 win (possibly 2 if LA can beat Colorado in their 1st game), and the Avs need to beat them for any chance at 1st place.

Basically, they gotta win out just to keep home ice, and hope Minny loses a game. Plus, the Avs have two sets of B2B, with JoJo likely starting 2 of those games, and a game vs. Vegas left. They could easily finish 5-7 to end the year and flop down 3rd place, giving Minny home ice. Further, it sounds like Game 1 would be on the 16th, giving the Avs just 2 days rest after the regular season ends.

Avs desperately need to get some guys back. Especially, G, Bo, Saad, EJ, LOC, and/or Calvert. Of those 5, only Saad and G sound like they have any chance to be back for Game 1.

 

[nammerus]

Stl needs 1 more win and 1 more LA loss to clench. After that, they can't catch anyone ahead of them, so they'll be resting guys for Game 1, and they finish with B2B with Minny. That's not good for Colorado.

Minny gets B2B vs last place Anaheim, 3 days off, and then B2B vs a Stl. team that, like I said, will likely be resting guys and not really giving a shit if they win either of those. Again, not good for Colorado.

LA is gonna give the Avs all they can handle as long as they're still alive. They've won 4 of their last 6, albeit vs. Anaheim and Arizona.

Avs really put themselves behind the 8-ball in the last week. You can pretty much forget about 1st place right now, unless Vegas loses 2 out of their last 4... yeah, probably not happening, although Stl. will be desperate for at least 1 win (possibly 2 if LA can beat Colorado in their 1st game), and the Avs need to beat them for any chance at 1st place.

Basically, they gotta win out just to keep home ice, and hope Minny loses a game. Plus, the Avs have two sets of B2B, with JoJo likely starting 2 of those games, and a game vs. Vegas left. They could easily finish 5-7 to end the year and flop down 3rd place, giving Minny home ice. Further, it sounds like Game 1 would be on the 16th, giving the Avs just 2 days rest after the regular season ends.

Avs desperately need to get some guys back. Especially, G, Bo, Saad, EJ, LOC, and/or Calvert. Of those 5, only Saad and G sound like they have any chance to be back for Game 1.

Cup contenders to (possibly) 3rd in the division. Pretty impressive fall since the deadline.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Cup contenders to (possibly) 3rd in the division. Pretty impressive fall since the deadline.

The 2nd COVID pause really killed their momentum. They were rolling before that.

They started the year 3-3 before they got it going.

Went 3-3 after 1st COVID pause before they really took off.

And now they're 3-4 after 2nd COVID pause.

Hopefully, the trend continues and they win these last 5.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Wild in 3 or STL in 2. Pick your poison

 

[Foppa2118]

Cup contenders to (possibly) 3rd in the division. Pretty impressive fall since the deadline.

Nothing to read into. The COVID pause throwing off their mojo, injuries to multiple defenseman, and losing their only true NHL goaltender is a lot to ask of any team.

This is a weird season. Everything will reset once the playoffs start. They do every year anyway, but they will this year especially. All that matters is the Avs get in and they did that.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Nothing to read into. The COVID pause throwing off their mojo, injuries to multiple defenseman, and losing their only true NHL goaltender is a lot to ask of any team.

This is a weird season. Everything will reset once the playoffs start. They do every year anyway, but they will this year especially. All that matters is the Avs get in and they did that.

Im in the boat of I dont care who they play. I would rather the Avs have home ice because they dominate at home but as far as matchups you are going to get a hard out in that first round regardless. Its also going to be even harder in the second round. If the Avs dont make it to the the third round its a failed season imo. I say this with the hopes that they will be fully healthy by the playoffs.