Playoff elimination (or miraculous entry) thread: The magic number is now 0

[26Mats]

Assume for the moment that it will take 97 points to get into the playoffs. This is more of a rough target than an exact number.

If we lose 0.5 more games (regulation losses count as 1 loss, OT losses count as 0.5 losses) in the 13 we have left, then we can no longer get to 97 points.

We can use this thread to count down.


And, a more complete picture is the following:
If we lose 2 more games in our next 13, we can't get to 94 points.
If we lose 1.5 more games in our next 13, we can't get to 95 points.
If we lose 1 more games in our next 13, we can't get to 96 points.
If we lose 0.5 more games in our next 13, we can't get to 97 points.
we can no longer get to 98 points.
we can no longer get to 99 points.
we can no longer get to 100 points.

Click to read more...

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

HF Habs: - The Official Push for the 2020 Playoffs

HF Habs: - Fans unite. Optimism thread. No tank talk (no sTANK we want tha DRANK)

or just use the other 2

 

[LaP]

This will likely take 97 or 98 points like last year. I don't think 96 will be enough specially if the ROW tiebreaker is not in your favor. The east is very strong now and while everyone was surprised at the beginning of the season by the weak start of some teams things are slowly getting back on track for them and it will more than likely require more than 96 points specially if you don't have the tie breaker.

Gonna be very hard to not lose more than 9 games in regulation with 32 games to go.

 

[26Mats]

This will likely take 97 or 98 points like last year. I don't think 96 will be enough specially if the ROW tiebreaker is not in your favor. The east is very strong now and while everyone was surprised at the beginning of the season by the weak start of some teams things are slowly getting back on track for them and it will more than likely require more than 96 points specially if you don't have the tie breaker.

Gonna be very hard to not lose more than 9 games in regulation with 32 games to go.

The count down is on. 9.5 losses and we're out of the playoffs.

 

[LaP]

The count down is on. 9.5 losses and we're out of the playoffs.

Which is why i said hard to not lose more than 9 in regulation cause if you lose more than 9 in regulation it means you lost 10 in regulation ... gonna be very hard.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

An actual magic number counts opposing 8th place's own relative magic number, not just some arbitrary drop off point.

Right now, it's at 58. (Mtl max point= 115, Florida has 57 points, hence, 58, or 59 for tie breaker)

8th place team wins (and stays 8th or the new 8th's point total becomes the reference) you remove 2 points.

Habs lose in regulation, you remove 2 points.

Once your magic number reaches the same digits as your total games, you're pretty much cooked even though not mathematically eliminated.

 

[26Mats]

Which is why i said hard to not lose more than 9 in regulation cause if you lose more than 9 in regulation it means you lost 10 in regulation ... gonna be very hard.

Or if you lose 9 in regulation and one other in the shoot out - it's impossible to get to 97 points.

Another scenario is you only lose 7 times in regulation, but 5 in OT or the shootout. Again in this scenario it's impossible to get to 97 points.

 

[ahmedou]

Welcome to the desperation of hockey. It's not the mecca of hockey anymore.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Florida won, so lowest seed is now at 59 pts.

Magic number now down from 58 to 56 with 32 games remaining.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

All three teams won, so lowest seed is now Columbus with 60 points.

Magic number now at 55 with 32 games to go.

 

[26Mats]

All three teams won, so lowest seed is now Columbus with 60 points.

Magic number now at 55 with 32 games to go.

We're really in the tougher conference.

6 of the 8 playoff teams in the Western Conference have less points than the 8th seed (Columbus) in the Eastern conference. We'd be 6 points behind #8 seed Vegas, with 2 games in hand on, if we were in the West.

It may take 100+ points to make the playoffs in the East.

 

[LaP]

We're really in the tougher conference.

6 of the 8 playoff teams in the Western Conference have less points than the 8th seed (Columbus) in the Eastern conference. We'd be 6 points behind #8 seed Vegas, with 2 games in hand on, if we were in the West.

It may take 100+ points to make the playoffs in the East.

Don't expect it to change anytime soon. Buffalo is on the verge of having a very good team. Florida is not going anywhere anytime soon. Ottawa will probably have two high picks this season. Colombus has a very good young defense.

 

[The Great Weal]

Buffalo is on the verge of having a very good team

I mean they got Dahlin, Eichel and... who else? They've been on the "verge" for years and still suck despite Jack Eichel playing like a Hart trophy candidate.

 

[26Mats]

Don't expect it to change anytime soon. Buffalo is on the verge of having a very good team. Florida is not going anywhere anytime soon. Ottawa will probably have two high picks this season. Colombus has a very good young defense.

I mean they got Dahlin, Eichel and... who else? They've been on the "verge" for years and still suck despite Jack Eichel playing like a Hart trophy candidate.

I wonder if they'd give up their 1st for Tatar or Petry. It's rumored to be in play.

 

[habsfan891]

I wonder if they'd give up their 1st for Tatar or Petry. It's rumored to be in play.

I'd do it if they were really that dumb easy 2 chances at the lottery and doesn't cost us anything that will hurt us in a couple years when we are beginning to contend.

 

[Habs]

Maybe little Geoffy and Bergetard can get the Habs moved to an easier conference? I mean, if you aren't going to fire you incompetent GM and scouting crew, lets move around the league.

 

[26Mats]

I'd do it if they were really that dumb easy 2 chances at the lottery and doesn't cost us anything that will hurt us in a couple years when we are beginning to contend.

But I'm not even sure MB does if we're not all but mathematically eliminated at the deadline.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I mean they got Dahlin, Eichel and... who else? They've been on the "verge" for years and still suck despite Jack Eichel playing like a Hart trophy candidate.

They havent been on the verge for years, ffs they finished dead last just 18 months ago and now they're much closer to the playoffs.

You're the king of hot takes on this board

 

[habsfan891]

But I'm not even sure MB does if we're not all but mathematically eliminated at the deadline.

Yes well MB has trouble walking and talking at the same time so im sure that amount of foresight is well beyond him.

 

[Habs]

They havent been on the verge for years, ffs they finished dead last just 18 months ago and now they're much closer to the playoffs.

You're the king of hot takes on this board

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Columbus won, so the new lowest seed is Carolina at 61 points.

So magic number is now at 54 with 32 games left. It's getting tighter by the day.

In 4 days without play, we went from 58 to 54. The margin of error is becoming very thin.

 

[26Mats]

This will likely take 97 or 98 points like last year. I don't think 96 will be enough specially if the ROW tiebreaker is not in your favor. The east is very strong now and while everyone was surprised at the beginning of the season by the weak start of some teams things are slowly getting back on track for them and it will more than likely require more than 96 points specially if you don't have the tie breaker.

Gonna be very hard to not lose more than 9 games in regulation with 32 games to go.

Columbus won, so the new lowest seed is Carolina at 61 points.

So magic number is now at 54 with 32 games left. It's getting tighter by the day.

In 4 days without play, we went from 58 to 54. The margin of error is becoming very thin.

It's looking more and more like it will take 100 points to get in.

If that's the case, if we lose 8 games, of our final 32, we're out. i.e. the maximum number of losses we can incure is 7.5.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

It's looking more and more like it will take 100 points to get in.

If that's the case, if we lose 8 games, of our final 32, we're out. i.e. the maximum number of losses we can incure is 7.5.

I’d say 7 as we likely lose the tie breaker so need 101

Maybe if we didn’t shit the bed with 5 losses to the 2 worst teams in the league our fate would be different

Hard to believe 25% of Detroit’s wins this year are thanks to us and yet there’s a thought this team can play almost .800 hockey for 2.5 months and get in

 

[Fixxer]

Montreal Playoffs appearance since after the cup (Only missed the playoffs 8 times, in history, before '93)

 

[Lebowski]

I mean they got Dahlin, Eichel and... who else? They've been on the "verge" for years and still suck despite Jack Eichel playing like a Hart trophy candidate.

That's two franchise players at the two most important positions... I'd say that's a pretty good start. We have neither of those.

It's a lot easier to acquire depth than it is to find cornerstones worth building a franchise around. Buffalo has done the hardest part. They need to give their team some time to mature and add some complementary pieces and they'll be good to go.