Players due for a step back next season.

[Atomos2]

Draisaitl, Ehlers, Trouba, Aho

 

[Vancouver_2010]

Loui Eriksson, hard to top that 12 goals last year.

 

[Mobiandi]

Definitely Maroon

 

[CanadianPensFan1]

Not everyone is going to reproduce what they did last year but I'm still bullish on them. I don't see Bobrovsky's production dipping all that much with that young D core that is only going to get better.

Indeed. I certainly don't expect them to be bad or anything. There's some good talent there to be sure.

Perhaps a few points less ...mayne finish with 98pts. I'm guessing less goals for (to account for the career year bonanza). And I agree with you on the d .. it will be better so perhaps with bob, less goals against.

 

[Viqsi]

Now cue the "you're a hater" and "you never watched cbj play" comments.

Not really; by now we're used to being blithely dismissed by folks with little more justification beyond "lol columbus lol". Compared to that, actual "hey, some of these guys had unusually good years, they might not do nearly as well later" analysis is practically praise.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Matthews

Matthews won't score 40 next year

Marchand, Panarin, Matthews, Ovi.

Dropping back: Marchand, Drai, Matthews, Price, Burns, Getzlaf

Stepping forward: Seguin, Eichel, Laine, Hall

For Habs Byron is definitely a good candidate although most of his goals were from skating his nuts off or going to the net...we'll see.

I like the picks of Panarin and Matthews.

CBJ fans I know you have a good team but there isn't anything that's going to replace the chemistry he and Kane had.

I can see Matthews just having a bit of a sophomore slump....35 goals or so.

Nope. Matthews' underlying numbers show he's likely to improve or stay the same, not regress. But Matthews only averaged 17:37 TOI this year as well, whereas all the superstars of the league usually play 19-21 mins. So because we had no 1st line, just 3 evenly iced scoring lines and then a 4th line, I expect his TOI to rise this year as he fully takes the reigns as the team's #1 centre, which should also mean more point production.

Lets also keep in mind that Matthews played with Hyman and Brown (gritty, grinding type players) and Nylander (a playmaker) all year, so naturally his assists were lower than his goals. Matthews actually has solid playmaking abilities but playing with a playmaker and grinders WILL hurt your assist totals. Matthews should be playing with Marleau this year who is a proven goal scorer which likely helps his assist totals, and Nylander again. Matthews had atleast 1 shot in ALL 82 regular season games this year and ALL 6 playoff games. It's just not possible to keep the puck off his stick or stop him from firing onto the net.

75+ points this year.

 

[BPD Habs Fan]

Nope. Matthews' underlying numbers show he's likely to improve or stay the same, not regress. But Matthews only averaged 17:37 TOI this year as well, whereas all the superstars of the league usually play 19-21 mins. So because we had no 1st line, just 3 evenly iced scoring lines and then a 4th line, I expect his TOI to rise this year as he fully takes the reigns as the team's #1 centre, which should also mean more point production.

Lets also keep in mind that Matthews played with Hyman and Brown (gritty, grinding type players) and Nylander (a playmaker) all year, so naturally his assists were lower than his goals. Matthews actually has solid playmaking abilities but playing with a playmaker and grinders WILL hurt your assist totals. Matthews should be playing with Marleau this year who is a proven goal scorer which likely helps his assist totals, and Nylander again. Matthews had atleast 1 shot in ALL 82 regular season games this year and ALL 6 playoff games. It's just not possible to keep the puck off his stick or stop him from firing onto the net.

75+ points this year.

I disagree. I think that he will have the "sophmore slump" because coaches will focus more this year on shutting him down.

same can be said of the other standout rookies of last year. It isn't an insult to think that a player might regress but it seems like most leaf fans are taking it that way.

Just an opinion that he won't have the same goal/assist totals as last year.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

I disagree. I think that he will have the "sophmore slump" because coaches will focus more this year on shutting him down.

same can be said of the other standout rookies of last year. It isn't an insult to think that a player might regress but it seems like most leaf fans are taking it that way.

Just an opinion that he won't have the same goal/assist totals as last year.

1. Matthews was already playing against other team's top pairings last season, he won't be facing anything that he wasn't already facing. The sophomore slump doesn't exist.

2. I wasn't insulted people were saying Matthews would regress, not sure where you got that from my post? I quoted everyone in the thread saying he would regress and provided a good argument saying he wouldn't.

3. You're right, he's going to have more

 

[TheKingPin]

Every current, former and future blue jacket. Obviously joking but I could see a lot of those players take a hit. Including werenski.

 

[Zorf]

1. Matthews was already playing against other team's top pairings last season, he won't be facing anything that he wasn't already facing. The sophomore slump doesn't exist.

It's not so much that he wasn't playing against top lines and top pairings, but more that his opponents now have a full season of information about him and can more adequately prepare for him. Defending teams will know more about what his tendencies are and can make adjustments. The trick for Matthews now is how will he adjust his game to negate the adjustments by defending teams?

also, 40 goals is a lot of goals. That's hard for anyone in the NHL to repeat.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

It's not so much that he wasn't playing against top lines and top pairings, but more that his opponents now have a full season of information about him and can more adequately prepare for him. Defending teams will know more about what his tendencies are and can make adjustments. The trick for Matthews now is how will he adjust his game to negate the adjustments by defending teams?

also, 40 goals is a lot of goals. That's hard for anyone in the NHL to repeat.

I'm not looking at only goal totals. I wouldn't consider it a regression if he had less goals but more points. I really wouldn't be surprised if he had 40+ goals again next season either though.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Draisaitl, Ehlers, Trouba, Aho

I'm curious why you say Aho? I don't have a problem with it and acknowledge that he could have a setback, so you may be right, but was just curious about your rationale? On the flip side, Aho didn't score his first goal until something like 17 games into the season, had an oiSH % of under 8%, didn't have an unreasonable sh%, didn't score a disproportionate amount on the PP, wasn't sheltered, had decent possession metrics and played a solid 2-way game. Nothing I can see screams unsustainable so I was curious what others might see that I might be missing.

 

[Go Wings]

I would say Nylander, while he is clearly very skilled and talented he scored 26 of his 61 points on the powerplay more than any other rookie.

If teams adjust to Toronto's PP or if he got moved off Matthews line he could take a step back easily.

 

[biotk]

It's not so much that he wasn't playing against top lines and top pairings, but more that his opponents now have a full season of information about him and can more adequately prepare for him. Defending teams will know more about what his tendencies are and can make adjustments. The trick for Matthews now is how will he adjust his game to negate the adjustments by defending teams?

also, 40 goals is a lot of goals. That's hard for anyone in the NHL to repeat.

This is true of course. Teams need 88 games of Matthews at the NHL level before they will have enough information about him to shut him down. Those 6 playoff games where he scored 4 goals were the last time that he will be able to play without teams being able to access their "information" on how to shut him down. Now it is game over for Matthews.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

Are you saying Getzlaf based on the playoffs influencing people? I wouldn't say his regular season is anything that can't easily be repeated

Getzlaf tends to go between 6-10 every year, far too high. playoff pools are a different story for him though.

 

[Regal]

Getzlaf tends to go between 6-10 every year, far too high. playoff pools are a different story for him though.

Fair enough. I can see him going too high cuz he usually misses time, but I don't think he fits the thread in terms of guys who will regress from this year

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Nope. Matthews' underlying numbers show he's likely to improve or stay the same, not regress. But Matthews only averaged 17:37 TOI this year as well, whereas all the superstars of the league usually play 19-21 mins. So because we had no 1st line, just 3 evenly iced scoring lines and then a 4th line, I expect his TOI to rise this year as he fully takes the reigns as the team's #1 centre, which should also mean more point production.

Lets also keep in mind that Matthews played with Hyman and Brown (gritty, grinding type players) and Nylander (a playmaker) all year, so naturally his assists were lower than his goals. Matthews actually has solid playmaking abilities but playing with a playmaker and grinders WILL hurt your assist totals. Matthews should be playing with Marleau this year who is a proven goal scorer which likely helps his assist totals, and Nylander again. Matthews had atleast 1 shot in ALL 82 regular season games this year and ALL 6 playoff games. It's just not possible to keep the puck off his stick or stop him from firing onto the net.

75+ points this year.

Everytime someone says "x players underlying numbers" it means eff all, it's just a vague way of trying to uplift the player.

I don't think Matthews will regress though, I reckon he'll have more points but 35ish goals

 

[nmbr_24]

I expect Brent Burns to score a little less this season unless he goes back to the wing again and I don't know if that is in the cards. Not a huge drop off but maybe 60ish points. Still a fantastic number.

 

[nmbr_24]

Everytime someone says "x players underlying numbers" it means eff all, it's just a vague way of trying to uplift the player.

I don't think Matthews will regress though, I reckon he'll have more points but 35ish goals

I don't think I see Mathews regressing either, he's just too good and he will get better even if it is just a little. His goal total may fluctuate a little as it does with every player and if he scores 35 goals I think that is something to be happy about and he will probably make up for it in assists. He will be counted on more and more and his point totals will climb with his minutes played. Of course that means other players minutes will decrease while his climb so while he will have better scoring stats it will negatively effect a few other Leafs. Most likely one or both of Kadri and Bozak will see their scoring decrease same goes for their linemates. The time on ice factor is going to be what matters most here. It won't be a significant drop off of play, just the logical drop off that happens with less minutes played. This will make the team better at the same time.

 

[weklof]

I don'T see Kane put up the same numbers as he did with Panarin, so...

Second that. Those two had really good chemistry and I expect both of them to produce at a lower pace apart

 

[Lunatik]

For Habs Byron is definitely a good candidate although most of his goals were from skating his nuts off or going to the net...we'll see.

He did the same thing the rest of his career too, he's had 2 great years where his shooting percentage was 22%+, while the rest of his career is about 11%

 

[Warden of the North]

Price.

The team in front of him is getting older and worse, and hes getting older.

 

[Jackets16]

The yearly thread where we should probably just look at who rode a crazy oiSH%, especially ones who did it to career highs. Anyone over 10% on this list is probably going to have regression. McDavid is probably an exception, as the only guys to constantly stay above 10% are Crosby and Stamkos. Some of the youngers guys may be off-set by more ice-time and opportunity. The guys I'd think are most likely to regress from the top are Zucker, Dumba, Skjei, Granlund, Rakell, Marcus Johansen (especially when you factor in the teammate switch), Zetterberg, and Bozak.

Younger guys like Marner, Ehlers, Laine and Scheifele I wouldn't expect to massively regress, but I don't think they'll have the expected growth you see of younger players. Laine may be able to be a guy who carries a number over 10% with his linemates like Stamkos but I highly doubt he'll stay over 11%. Most elite players have career averages between 8.5%-9.5%.

https://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ra...0&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=ShPct&sortdir=DESC

The highest ranked player for Columbus is David Savard at 8.79%. The highest ranked forward (who is still on the team) is Boone Jenner at 8.07%. Artemi Panarin was at 10.13% for Chicago. Yet, somehow all of their players are going to be worse this year.

 

[Striiker]

Jordan ****ing Weal.

 

[LaymanX]

Rakell, Laine, Hoffman