Is this the ‘development thread’? I think so.
If you look at the drafts from 2010-2019, using playing 200 nhl games as a baseline being a good draft outcome, as I do, the leafs have drafted pretty well really. I feel like drafting two guys a year who hit that benchmark is good drafting and gives you a good pipeline of youth. More is gravy.
Two in ‘10, 1 in ‘11, 2 in ‘12 with a third likely to reach the benchmark this year, 2 in ‘13 (GOAT was a lil shy of being the third), 2 in ‘14 with Joshua well on his way), 2 in ‘15, 2 in ‘16 with Woll a third NHL player, none from ‘17 but Lili will likely hit the mark this year, 2 in ‘18 with Pontus looking a likely third, and ‘19 - while still early, looking like 1 in NickRob (with maybe Abruzzese and Kokkonen having outside chances, maybe not so much with the leafs). In an average draft, that’s a 2/7 or 28% hit rate. Over 10 years, that’s 20 hits. The Leafs have hit at 16 already with 18 likely hitting the mark by the end of the year, two more establishing their place in the lineup making 20 probable. A bit early to judge 17-19, but the drafting and developing has been okay.
That’s with 5 picks over a full draft card during those 10 years. Very good success with firsts after the GOAT pick. Hits in all the rounds, various developmental curves.
FA outside of the draft has yielded many players.
The drafts from 20-23, where you might see 8 players hit the mark, have at least 7 guys tracking well enough to expect they’ll make it with two other goalies tracking well enough. And a bunch of guys who the jury is still *more* out on. That’s over 30 picks, or 5 fewer than a full draft card over that time. And includes the Rodion tragedy.
I’d say they’re doing okay. My thoughts are I don’t care how many picks you have, so long as you hit that benchmark - and that’s been looking good by my math.