Plans, Trades, and Automobiles: Fixing the Winged Wheel II

[WingedWheel1987]

What does he have to learn in the AHL? I'd rather start him as a backup and try to steal the starting job now instead of later.

Statistically speaking? Absolutely nothing.

He is NHL ready. He just isn't super duper NHL ready.

 

[Actual Thought*]

I don't get the resistance to seeing Mrazek in the AHL for another year. It seems contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. You've got two good goalies, one is getting closer towards the end of his career, probably 5 or 6 good years left, and the other is young and is looking at having a good 15 year pro career, but is still eligible to start on your minor league team. The older one is fairly accomplished, has shown he can be a legit starter in the league, while the younger one has had a few tastes of big league action and had varying results. Another year isn't going to be the difference between winning or losing the cup, and means our young guy gets more starts. He isn't a skater who could play sheltered minutes against teams weakest competition for ~10:00 a night in the NHL, he'd have to play entire 60 minute games, although choosing a weaker opponent is still possible. Just doesn't really make as much sense to me.

If they keep Howard I don't have a problem with Mrazek staying down. But if they keep Howard, Mrazek with never be the starting goaltender for the Wings. He isn't going to wait 5-6 years as Howard's back-up. One of them will have to be moved. Howard's value will never be higher.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I don't think we are winning a cup this year or in the next few years unless we make some bold moves. I would argue that we are banking on Howard's "potential" at this point since we really don't know if he has what it takes to win a cup. Mrazek has built a pretty strong resume. If we are rebuilding and getting younger then I think Howard is a logical trade option.

And if the team improves and Mrazek doesn't do very well?

You have to see what he can do over an NHL season before cutting ties with your current starter.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

If Mrazek ends up being amazing, it gives you a valuable trade chip. Ideally you trade Howard, unless you run a moronic organization like the Canucks.

Of course the thought of Howard being traded by Ken Holland sounds laughable.

If he sucks, you still have Jimmy Howard.

 

[PullHard]

If they keep Howard I don't have a problem with Mrazek staying down. But if they keep Howard, Mrazek with never be the starting goaltender for the Wings. He isn't going to wait 5-6 years as Howard's back-up. One of them will have to be moved. Howard's value will never be higher.

I agree with your logic, I just don't see Holland operating that way. I can imagine Holland trying to time Mrazek's rise with Howard's decline, try to mitigate the damage of carrying Howard as a back up making over $5M to the last 12 or 18 months of his contract, and then offer him a much smaller deal with the implication that he would be sliding into a 1B role with the team once his current contract is up.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

The first thing that comes to mind is timing out salary cap/ contract issues and preventing a Vancouver/ Luongo and Schneider (but lesser scale) kind of situation from a management perspective.

Not sure I consider that a problem. Also not sure how you can't trade Howard a year or two from now if you think you can trade him this year.

 

[Actual Thought*]

And if the team improves and Mrazek doesn't do very well?

You have to see what he can do over an NHL season before cutting ties with your current starter.

Then Gus would have a huge opportunity. I would think he would be penciled in as the starter and Mrazek would have to take the job.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Then Gus would have a huge opportunity. I would think he would be penciled in as the starter and Mrazek would have to take the job.

I'd rather be part of the Blackhawks Ice Crew.

 

[PullHard]

Not sure I consider that a problem. Also not sure how you can't trade Howard a year or two from now if you think you can trade him this year.

I just don't see trading Howard as a thing the Wings org would do.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

I just don't see trading Howard as a thing the Wings org would do.

I hate your explanation's, but they are completely correct/in line with how this organization mismanages the roster.

 

[Frk It]

I'd rather be part of the Blackhawks Ice Crew.

Lolol.

Yeah, I will defend the season Monster had last year, in a vacuum. But him as the starter would be absolutely idiotic.

 

[PullHard]

I hate your explanation's, but they are completely correct.

I am numb to the "loyalty" thing at this point. Until Holland trades a roster player who is even remotely close to "in their prime" or more than a role player, I assume he won't do it.

 

[SoupNazi]

I'd rather be part of the Blackhawks Ice Crew.

Yeah, so would I. Hell, that's not even the worst thing I'd rather do than see Gus as the starter.

 

[PullHard]

The perfect example of how the loyalty thing can be seen as detrimental is how the Hawks dealt with Handzus. He came into their club at the trade dead line (or somewhere around there, IIRC?) in 2013, was their 2C on a Cup winning team, and stayed there for most of this past season, too. They finished one OT goal away from the Cup final, and likely another Cup. He wasn't cutting it as the 2C and was bumped down to the 4th line in the playoffs. The team has now announced they are moving on from him.

Meanwhile, Holland is going to give Cleary another contract (even if it is a 2 way, 1 year deal at league minimum) because he said he would ~a year ago. Even though Cleary quickly lost his roster spot to younger, better players. And it was obviously detrimental to bring him back last year. Why does this team continue to do this?

 

[Actual Thought*]

If Mrazek ends up being amazing, it gives you a valuable trade chip. Ideally you trade Howard, unless you run a moronic organization like the Canucks.

Of course the thought of Howard being traded by Ken Holland sounds laughable.

If he sucks, you still have Jimmy Howard.

I agree but if Mrazek is great then both lose trade value because the Wings will be in a bind. We need a top tier D-man. I don't see us trading Kindl and making a dramatic difference anywhere on the team. If Mrazek is great you become an instant contender by trading Howard.

 

[Frk It]

The perfect example of how the loyalty thing can be seen as detrimental is how the Hawks dealt with Handzus. He came into their club at the trade dead line (or somewhere around there, IIRC?) in 2013, was their 2C on a Cup winning team, and stayed there for most of this past season, too. They finished one OT goal away from the Cup final, and likely another Cup. He wasn't cutting it as the 2C and was bumped down to the 4th line in the playoffs. The team has now announced they are moving on from him.

Meanwhile, Holland is going to give Cleary another contract (even if it is a 2 way, 1 year deal at league minimum) because he said he would ~a year ago. Even though Cleary quickly lost his roster spot to younger, better players. And it was obviously detrimental to bring him back last year. Why does this team continue to do this?

Yup. The good GM's are capable of making hard decisons. They understand that this is a business.

When you are no longer capable of moving on from role players, you are effectively losing the ability to do you job.

If we had a more level-headed and objective GM I think we would be better suited.

 

[FlashyG]

What does he have to learn in the AHL? I'd rather start him as a backup and try to steal the starting job now instead of later.

Endurance....The kid hasn't played a full season at any professional level yet.

Lets see him play 50-60 games in a season and see how he holds up.

 

[SirloinUB]

Howard's value will never be higher.

Really? His trade value will never be higher than after his worst season as an NHL starter?

 

[Actual Thought*]

The perfect example of how the loyalty thing can be seen as detrimental is how the Hawks dealt with Handzus. He came into their club at the trade dead line (or somewhere around there, IIRC?) in 2013, was their 2C on a Cup winning team, and stayed there for most of this past season, too. They finished one OT goal away from the Cup final, and likely another Cup. He wasn't cutting it as the 2C and was bumped down to the 4th line in the playoffs. The team has now announced they are moving on from him.

Meanwhile, Holland is going to give Cleary another contract (even if it is a 2 way, 1 year deal at league minimum) because he said he would ~a year ago. Even though Cleary quickly lost his roster spot to younger, better players. And it was obviously detrimental to bring him back last year. Why does this team continue to do this?

Funny you mention Chicago. They dumped Niemi after winning a cup and handed the reigns to Crawford. That seems to have worked out for them.

 

[Actual Thought*]

Really? His trade value will never be higher than after his worst season as an NHL starter?

I don't see him being amazing next year either. Especially if he plays behind the D he had this year. No. I don't see his value on the rise.

 

[DatsDeking]

I think Mrazek plays in GR this year and we trade Howard for a Winger or Dman next off season. Mrazek then starts with a vet backup.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

The perfect example of how the loyalty thing can be seen as detrimental is how the Hawks dealt with Handzus. He came into their club at the trade dead line (or somewhere around there, IIRC?) in 2013, was their 2C on a Cup winning team, and stayed there for most of this past season, too. They finished one OT goal away from the Cup final, and likely another Cup. He wasn't cutting it as the 2C and was bumped down to the 4th line in the playoffs. The team has now announced they are moving on from him.

Meanwhile, Holland is going to give Cleary another contract (even if it is a 2 way, 1 year deal at league minimum) because he said he would ~a year ago. Even though Cleary quickly lost his roster spot to younger, better players. And it was obviously detrimental to bring him back last year. Why does this team continue to do this?

chicago is only concerned with winning cups because they know thats all the fans and players care about

we're too busy concerning ourselves with our own personal relationships and legacy whereby we will sacrafice long term success to maintain that illusion

 

[odin1981]

I'd like to see him get his shot (Mrazek) but it is just not in the cards this coming year. I know I am probably mirage'ing myself with the possibility that Holland actually lets someone go (via trade) but he is more or less (Howard) unmovable this year. After his nmc becomes a ntc then there is a higher possibility but it is a fair chance that Jimmy has at least 2 more years in this organization.

I believe after next year there will be a 1-2 years where Mrazek is the nhl back up getting his nhl reps in (20-30 games or so). More than likely we hold onto Howard for 3 years until the organization is sure that he can (Mrazek) step in and take the #1 job. I wish he was a backup next year but I'm realistic in that not happening. If Howard starts to falter off though this might speed the process up but then you are stuck with his contract for the duration because no one will want him.

Sad but true.

 

[Flowah]

Is it a cap issue at all? Mrazek doesn't cost very much does he? Isn't he less than what we paid Gustavsson last year?

And if Mrazek comes in and steals Howard's job, I don't see the problem. Howard's contract is not toxic like Luongo's. That was part of the reason they couldn't deal with that situation. Also Gillis being a complete idiot. Everyone saw the writing on the wall but he refused to act and held out for the sake of holding out and ended up with nothing.

If Holland can behave more rationally than that watching Mrazek take over the starting job will be nothing but a win. Howard's on a very reasonable contract for a good hit and a good term. He's established, solid. And if Mrazek doesn't win it then whatever. 15-25 backup games is great for the kid and he'll see how much more he has to grow. You only end up with a Vancouver situation if you have a complete mess of a GM. I'm not at that point yet with Holland. I think he'd be able to handle it.

 

[odin1981]

Is it a cap issue at all? Mrazek doesn't cost very much does he? Isn't he less than what we paid Gustavsson last year?

And if Mrazek comes in and steals Howard's job, I don't see the problem. Howard's contract is not toxic like Luongo's. That was part of the reason they couldn't deal with that situation. Also Gillis being a complete idiot. Everyone saw the writing on the wall but he refused to act and held out for the sake of holding out and ended up with nothing.

If Holland can behave more rationally than that watching Mrazek take over the starting job will be nothing but a win. Howard's on a very reasonable contract for a good hit and a good term. He's established, solid. And if Mrazek doesn't win it then whatever. 15-25 backup games is great for the kid and he'll see how much more he has to grow. You only end up with a Vancouver situation if you have a complete mess of a GM. I'm not at that point yet with Holland. I think he'd be able to handle it.

I don't believe it is a cap issue. I have a feeling it is more inline with a we need to keep his 2nd rfa contract down issue more or less. It sucks to say that but you do need cap management in today's era. Unfortunately for Petr this will probably keep him down next year and a backup for 1-2 years.

I know goalies are unpredictable but I personally feel he is gonna be something special. So it will suck if he is pried down for a bit. Basically a goalie version of Nyquist to a degree.