GWT: PL Matchweek 25

[Havre]

Of course City can win the CL. They are a better team than Spurs and Ajax last season. And I'm not arguing that Guardiola isn't good - he obviously is, but he is not miles better than everybody else even if you exclude Klopp.

It would be interesting to see him in a job were he can't one summer buy fullbacks for more money than other teams are spending on their whole team for then to just replace those full backs with even more expensive full backs 12 months later. That is some special coaching for you.

 

[Chimaera]

I mean, can he coach without the parts he needs to play his system? Yeah, I certainly think he can. He's smart enough, and he has a philosophy that can be taught. But he definitely knows he doesn't have to grind it out, so why should he? His track record has shown that he needs players who can play his system. It would be interesting to see him take a mid table club, and then try and push them, but his past performance means he does not need to do so. Honestly, I think he could do it, but having basically become accustom to a certain standard, I think he would say screw it and leave as soon as it got a bit frustrating.

For what it's worth, even Klopp needs a certain level of support and quality. I think some of the difference between a Pep (and for some extent Mourinho in his past three or four stops) is they rather throw money at the situation, rather than improving players they have, or finding ways to use what they have. Whether that's for expedience, or just out of the sheer fact they can, I think that's a debate. Rationally, I think Pep knows that his management has an expiration date, and he doesn't have two or three windows to try and see a player get better. So he rather just bin the player, buy someone new and move forward. That pressure does have the impact of some players performing better, but it certainly leaves a path of wasted money and destruction in some players confidence.

Klopp to a fault, is loyal to his players, and I think he sometimes would stick with a guy much longer than Pep would. However, I think his eyes have been slightly opened to how efficient sometimes just paying for players you want can change things. Klopp of Dortmund would probably have gone a different way than VVD when they couldn't get him. He might have decided I'm buying a player who's a bit less, or gone with what they have. Klopp of the past might have persisted with Karius or Mignolet for another season or two, because it wasn't showing loyalty to upset the apple cart. I think how well Alisson and VVD worked out means he probably would be a bit more ruthless if it came down to it. I have no doubt in my mind that Pep would sell anyone on that squad and bring in a better player in a heartbeat if it meant 3 more points. But even saying that, look at the massive turnover of roster Liverpool have seen. Other than Milner, Firmino and Henderson, pretty much everyone is new. He's gutted the squad.

 

[Blender]

Pep is certainly not bringing great value to City compared with the money they have spent. No denying he's a great manager, but I expect better when you're managing a club that has quadrupled the money spent by most of the league. If he doesn't win the CL, he will be remembered for dominating the league for a few seasons but failing to take City to the next step in Europe, which was the entire reason they hired him.

 

[Chimaera]

As for City and the CL, they're certainly going to put their focus on that. They can win, but I'm not sure they will. some of it will depend on a lot more chance than Pep would like. He's still playing with a side that needs a player or two. But in any night, they can erupt and 3-4 of the chances that have been finding the woodwork or the keeper's leg could go in. That means I wouldn't count them out in any tie. It's just a bit of chance based on who they get.


That said, they can't completely ignore the league. No matter what some might think. As Liverpool freight train the league, the larger the gap continues to swell, the more dissatisfaction grows. Losing the league by 30 points is unacceptable for any manager of that behemoth. I'm not sure that gets him whacked, but if they don't win the CL and they aren't even in the same league as Liverpool in the EPL, questions will be asked. If the gap closes, and it's 15, that's a different conversation than if it's 30+. If they phone in the league, that's what they could be looking at.

 

[Havre]

And if he leaves within a year or so I believe he is strangely enough leaving less top end quality for the next manager than he inherited. Quite baffling considering the money spent. Even if I understand there will always be less value for money for those who spend the most.

 

[Blender]

And if he leaves within a year or so I believe he is strangely enough leaving less top end quality for the next manager than he inherited. Quite baffling considering the money spent. Even if I understand there will always be less value for money for those who spend the most.

Especially shocking how bad their back line is with how much money they have spent on it...

 

[Chimaera]

And if he leaves within a year or so I believe he is strangely enough leaving less top end quality for the next manager than he inherited. Quite baffling considering the money spent. Even if I understand there will always be less value for money for those who spend the most.

I do think they've got some of the key parts to still be a talented side. Any side who can throw out KdB, Sterling, Ederson (even if he's not great at shot stopping at times), Bernardo Silva (his form might be down, but he'll find it) and a few others won't be bad.

But some of his leaving a bit of a crap show in his wake is related to the fact that a few players who you would expect to improve moving forward haven't been able to deal with injuries and confidence. Mendy, can't get on the pitch. Stones, looked at one point to be a starter for 10 years, and now, he probably needs a move to restart his career. Sane, wants to leave, coming off a major injury. Gabriel Jesus hasn't improved on his potential.

Others he has relied on are aging. Aguero, David Silva, Fernandinho. All key cogs who are way too old to be a part of the future.


They might need to spend to improve, but I don't think it's more than two or three players.

 

[Havre]

I do think they've got some of the key parts to still be a talented side. Any side who can throw out KdB, Sterling, Ederson (even if he's not great at shot stopping at times), Bernardo Silva (his form might be down, but he'll find it) and a few others won't be bad.

But some of his leaving a bit of a crap show in his wake is related to the fact that a few players who you would expect to improve moving forward haven't been able to deal with injuries and confidence. Mendy, can't get on the pitch. Stones, looked at one point to be a starter for 10 years, and now, he probably needs a move to restart his career. Sane, wants to leave, coming off a major injury. Gabriel Jesus hasn't improved on his potential.

Others he has relied on are aging. Aguero, David Silva, Fernandinho. All key cogs who are way too old to be a part of the future.


They might need to spend to improve, but I don't think it's more than two or three players.

Not suggesting they go Sunderland within a couple of years, but Guardiola inherited Kompany, KDB, D. Silva, Fernandinho, Sterling and Aguero.

Credit to Guardiola for how especially Sterling developed under him, but I don't see from what City got now that they will have anything close to that core 1-2 years from now. KDB and Sterling will still be kind of in their prime, but they will have to spend a lot and spend it well to replace the others. B. Silva, Laporte etc. won't be enough.

Will be interesting to see what happens. Will Guardiola hang around for a 3-4 year rebuild? Will they be allowed to spend whatever money they want to by FFP? And if Guardiola leaves how will his replacement work out?

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I could see City becoming more like Chelsea. Good, but not running away with titles year after year.

 

[hatterson]

Especially shocking how bad their back line is with how much money they have spent on it...

Since he arrived he's spent 108m pounds on CBs and 205m pounds on FBs

One injury has him rolling out a DM at CB on a regular basis and at FB Walker is the only consistent starter and he's not great. On the other side it's a consistent rotation of mediocrity.

At City he's been a far, far, far better coach than he has talent evaluator.

 

[Blender]

Since he arrived he's spent 108m pounds on CBs and 205m pounds on FBs

One injury has him rolling out a DM at CB on a regular basis and at FB Walker is the only consistent starter and he's not great. On the other side it's a consistent rotation of mediocrity.

At City he's been a far, far, far better coach than he has talent evaluator.

Tough to know exactly how involved he is in transfers, but at the least I presume he's sitting down with them to discuss the types of players he wants and going over potential targets with their transfers team.

 

[Chimaera]

Pep won't stick around to see a rebuild. He might try and patch it together for a CL run next year if they fall short this year, but at some point he knows his message will ring a bit thin.

That said, the club is going to spend what it takes to rebuild. Even if that means another billion in players. Pep might go, but they'll attract another top manager and give him the checkbook to put them back in the top level.

I still think a rebuild is much easier when you've got KdB and Sterling already, and can pay whatever it takes to put two or three other top players with them. I still think some of the other talents can come good, or at least improve. Gabriel Jesus can play, even if he's wasteful. heck, that was the knock against Sterling until it wasn't. Rodri can play. B. Silva can play. Sane, if he goes brings a truck load of cash, and even Aguero's going to bring a bunch of money if they move him on. Heck, keep Sane and that's basically your frontline done. Laporte's still young.

 

[Stray Wasp]

Spurs are on pace for 56 points and are in 5th. That is pathetic.

Pathetic, though better than a kick in the teeth, and not unique in EPL history. A 56-point campaign yielded a fifth place finish in 2003-4, and by my maths a team has managed fifth with less than 60 points on three other occasions.

 

[Stray Wasp]

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I could see City becoming more like Chelsea. Good, but not running away with titles year after year.

I could easily imagine that outcome too. After all, we're talking about a club that until Guardiola had never before retained a league title.

Note that, for all their spending, the only time Chelsea retained the EPL title was during Mourinho's first spell, which is now a frighteningly long time ago. Yet between 2004 and 2006 there was a dreadful sense they might crush everything in sight for years to come.

Anticlimactic as Guardiola's European results have been at City - so far - Liverpool's domestic results over the last two years shouldn't cause us to dismiss the incredible EPL form of the People's Billionaires from 2017-2019 out of hand. Clearly, though, to set domestic records was not why Guardiola was contracted - or why he signed said contract. Nor did anyone expect what Klopp has wrung out of Liverpool.

 

[YNWA14]

Pathetic, though better than a kick in the teeth, and not unique in EPL history. A 56-point campaign yielded a fifth place finish in 2003-4, and by my maths a team has managed fifth with less than 60 points on three other occasions.

It's also worth pointing out that Spurs had a terrible start to the season and I'd wager that they finish with more than 56 points.

EDIT: Also finally got around to catching up on most of the games around the league. What a nice goal by Bergwijn; still wish Liverpool had gone in on him. Nice get for Spurs.

 

[les Habs]

I don't give a **** what he said, that's not what I'm responding to. Whatever thing Cassano is going on about with Arsenal is completely irrelevant to me. You referred to Juve buying a mug in Higuain. They bought him after 2015-16. In that season he was genuinely that good. You don't break a record that's old enough to get social security by being a mug.

For starters I was exaggerating with "mug" which should have been painfully obvious. That said, I don't give a f*** about his record because I'm smart enough to put it into context on top of knowing he's only so good. He didn't even live up to his price tag. If you actually look at the goalscoring numbers or other stats of a number of different players in Serie A in recent seasons you'll find that it's not that difficult. Mertens isn't even the out and out striker that Higuain is and scored 34 goals for Napoli the following season.

Pep is certainly not bringing great value to City compared with the money they have spent. No denying he's a great manager, but I expect better when you're managing a club that has quadrupled the money spent by most of the league. If he doesn't win the CL, he will be remembered for dominating the league for a few seasons but failing to take City to the next step in Europe, which was the entire reason they hired him.

For starters, clubs should be measured on the cost of the current team. If you're actually going to talking about spending though, then it should be net spend. Either way I'm not sure why anyone would reference that graph and mention the "value" Guardiola has brought to City. There's not a lot to suggest how much of the spending is down to him. Before Barça brought in Deco, they were heavily linked and seriously considering Ballack. In fact Ballack was the preferred target. Instead they got Deco (thankfully) and the manager only had so much of a say in it. Regardless of that though, the time period on the graph includes time when he wasn't even at the club! Anyway, I can tell you the value he's brought. He's brought two league titles in what will be four years, back-to-back titles one of which was done with a record-breaking 100 points. He's also won an FA Cup, two League Cups and a Community shield. In fact last season was a first ever domestic treble.

People can say he's a failure because he didn't win the CL and that's why he was hired. That only makes him a failure at winning the CL, a trophy that only one other manager on the planet can win at that moment. He's still proven quite successful domestically.

And if he leaves within a year or so I believe he is strangely enough leaving less top end quality for the next manager than he inherited. Quite baffling considering the money spent. Even if I understand there will always be less value for money for those who spend the most.

If he left at the end of this season I'd say he's leaving whomever might replace him with a notably better side than what he inherited. Also, as someone else noted, you're not taking age into account which isn't his fault.

People like to talk about Guardiola inherited, but it's what you do with it that counts. He took a well under performing Barça side to a Treble in his first season and the famous "six trophy" haul, and that was after both Ronaldinho and Deco were sold. He would have had another CL in 2010 too were it not for the refs which would have been three in a row.

 

[Havre]

Obviously it is up to him to start replacing aging players. Almost the whole core was there before he arrived. He made them better, but it has hardly been a revolution. And right now they are not any better than they were before him.

 

[Chimaera]

I mean, I think it's hard to say they aren't or weren't better than he got there. Especially last season.

Sure, Liverpool are going to obliterate the record, and they're making everyone look poor, but last season for City was historic. Two titles in the row, a bunch of other silverware, even though they had won a title prior to him, he had that team playing like a machine.

The wheels are coming off now, but I'm not sure that's completely on him. Sure, some of it's arrogance about not wanting a central defender, but I think you can make a justification that you can't really plan for Laporte getting hurt. If he doesn't get hurt, minutes might have been at a premium there, or whoever is playing next to Laporte looks good enough again.

I think the trouble is more down to the fact that his message has and will get tired. He's a perfectionist who doesn't tolerate less than that. At some point, players tune it out. The question for me is not so much can he rebuild (he needs to retool more than rebuild for the next season or two) but is the message going to find people willing to listen if he stuck it out?

 

[Havre]

They clearly were, but I still think that squad should have had more resilience than it has considering the resources spent - and supposedly how good Guardiola is.

 

[Havre]

And why is it that Mourinho is someone that will alienate everyone with time while in the case of Guardiola it is his idealism that might do the same thing?

Not defending Mourinho here, but seems a bit like a double standard?

 

[Chimaera]

And why is it that Mourinho is someone that will alienate everyone with time while in the case of Guardiola it is his idealism that might do the same thing?

Not defending Mourinho here, but seems a bit like a double standard?

Oh, they both aggravate and irritate.

I think the difference with the two of them is Jose picks and prods at the players a bit more. From what I can see, I think he wants the players to band together and almost say we're doing this to spite him. I think everyone also knows that when it comes down to it, Jose will have no qualms about throwing ANY of them under the bus if it came down to helping him. With Pep, he seems to be more of a perfectionist to where he's after players and at some point they tune it out. I do think Pep doesn't mind putting some of the burden elsewhere, but I also think he's more than willing to step up and distract away from players more so than call them out directly.

I don't think they're that dissimilar in some ways. Note, all of this is just what I've seen, read, and try to grasp, which is very much impossible to say without being in the room.

 

[Havre]

Could be. I think something happened with Mourinho at one point, because earlier in his career it always seemed to me players would be willing to sacrifice more for him than any other manager. Be it Terry, Lampard, Essien etc.

I do agree with your description though. It never feels like Guardiola will throw someone under the bus. Still curious to see how long this happy Mourinho will last at Spurs. So far no sign of attacking his own players - even if some media outlets on purpose seems to try to misunderstand his comments on Ndombele (quite obvious he sees Ndombele as a key player for him).

Underestimated part of being a successful manager in my opinion. Feeling comfortable in your surroundings. I've seen AVB go old grumpy man after just months at Chelsea. Then he was completely different for a time at Spurs before going old grumpy man again. Mourinho was the same at Utd and now Spurs - even if he hasn't reached grumpy yet at Spurs. I guess Guardiola's reputation only helps him in that respect. Difficult to be the one opposing Guardiola at a club. That is to Guardiola's credit though. Seemingly better at that part of management than for example Mourinho.

 

[les Habs]

Obviously it is up to him to start replacing aging players. Almost the whole core was there before he arrived. He made them better, but it has hardly been a revolution. And right now they are not any better than they were before him.

It didn't have to be a revolution and maybe it wasn't, but if it wasn't a revolution then it was a very notable evolution. That said, it was definitely a revolution and a notable one at that. And while this season isn't going well, as @Chimaera noted there have been some injuries. Losing Laporte and Sane as they have is a very big deal. They should still being playing better and I wouldn't expect any sympathy for a club with this resources, but losing two players like that generally much less considering their respective impacts last season is huge.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

The standard Pep has set with City is absolutely insane. 2nd place to an elite team and he's a has been and bald fraud. People are acting like City is in relegation form.

 

[Live in the Now]

The standard Pep has set with City is absolutely insane. 2nd place to an elite team and he's a has been and bald fraud. People are acting like City is in relegation form.

They would be in second place literally no matter what too. If they had four more wins and four less losses they'd still be 10 points behind. The standard for what it took to win this season was blown out of the water.

The reason I thought there was a chance of him quitting is that I think there's a possibility it wasn't left up to him whether or not they'd buy a central defender. There's plenty of reason to think he would not want to go into the season with the squad they had.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

They would be in second place literally no matter what too. If they had four more wins and four less losses they'd still be 10 points behind. The standard for what it took to win this season was blown out of the water.

The reason I thought there was a chance of him quitting is that I think there's a possibility it wasn't left up to him whether or not they'd buy a central defender. There's plenty of reason to think he would not want to go into the season with the squad they had.

Its incredibly shortsighted...Not sure about the defensive situation. I could see Pep not liking the options available in the summer and just rolling with with Stones/Laporte combination with Ferindainho as 3rd choice. While Otandmedi would be the clown option. Not realizing both Laporte and Stone would be out for most of the season. Making Otamendi his best CB. (which tbh isn't even the case) Garcia should get way more playing time.

In any case Otamendi won't survive the summer. Pep will get a legit CB or 2.