Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap: Time is Relevant and Empty Arenas are Wormholes

[Empoleon8771]

I really don't see this team keeping both goaltenders.
And Hallander has a good shot at stealing a spot. Probably moreso than Sammy.

I disagree with both of these. I think JR will do something similar to what he did with Pettersson, give him a 1 year deal and then sign him long term later. He'll kick the can down the road with his goaltending by giving each a 1 year deal, which should keep the cost of the goalie duo relatively low. You should be able to get Murray for $5 million, similar to the Lehner contract, and Jarry for $2 million, similar to the Korpisalo contract, if you do that.

The problem with Ruhwedel as 6D is the heavy wet smelly sensation in the pants the moment an injury comes and he's 4D. I'm not a fan of that and am happy to sacrifice depth elsewhere to change it.

I also think guessing what happens next for contracts is really difficult. If a player is a gambler, he takes a 1 year and cashes in the next year. If he's not, if he's wondering if things can get worse for the NHL in a recession or if he's at an age where 1 bad year can lead to no last big contract at all, maybe they take term now and shrug off the loss. Seems a time for gamblers but NHL players trend conservative. Dadonov's kinda in that position since he's up as an example; he takes a 1 year, he gets injured and underperforms, next contract is at 32 off a bad year and where does that go? Youngster like Jarry or McCann who's not made real money yet might be reluctant to turn down their first long "set for life" pay cheque either; if it is a little low, they're young enough to make it up on the next one. Real hard to call. Arguments both ways.

Also I thought NHL insiders like LeBrun were still forecasting that the NHL and NHLPA would want to avoid the salary cap going down and compliance buyouts, and would override the CBA to ensure that happened?

A couple of things here:

1. The Penguins may not have a choice with going with Ruhwedel as the #6D. And that also begs the question, why do the Penguins insist on keeping him around if the thought of him being a #6 defenseman is such a problem? With how pressed the Penguins are going to be for cap space, I don't think you can have those kind of fallback options available. I think you're going to really struggle getting a bottom pair RD that can be passable in a top-4 role in free agency, just because of the cap. That's likely going to cost you about $2.5-$3 million with term, and it's a legitimate question to ask how much better someone like DeMelo would do in that role vs Ruhwedel.

2. I think you're overstating how unwilling young players are to take short term deals. RFAs don't have enough leverage to demand "set for life" paychecks, especially guys in Jarry's and McCann's shoes. Holdouts are well rare enough to the point where it shouldn't be considered a huge risk with those two, especially considering their lack of sustained success in the NHL. They may not get these guys to agree to a Pettersson style extension, but McCann and Jarry don't have the leverage to demand sizable contracts with term if the Penguins don't want to give him term.

I may have misread what you meant with point 2. I first read it as "youngsters may also say no to short term money deals", but re-reading makes me not sure if you're referring to guys like Dadonov or those youngsters with that comment.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I do think it is possible for the Penguins to trade for a Rodrigues type of RD to play on the bottom pair, though. That's exactly what they did with Schultz back in 2016, but I'm not sure what kind of defensemen like 2016 Schultz are out there right now. You need to find a struggling young player that will only cost you about $1.5 million that has the potential to outperform that contract.

Looking at the list of RFAs, a couple names that pop out to me are Stecher, Benning, Mueller, Bowey, Fleury and Koekkoek. If the Penguins managed to get rid of JJ, I'd be screaming about acquiring Fleury. He seems like an awesome low risk, high reward option. With JJ in the fold, I'd probably say that Benning or Bowey is who I'd be looking at.

Edit: oh yeah Honka is another guy, he's probably my #1 option for a RD.

 

[Peat]

1. The Penguins may not have a choice with going with Ruhwedel as the #6D. And that also begs the question, why do the Penguins insist on keeping him around if the thought of him being a #6 defenseman is such a problem? With how pressed the Penguins are going to be for cap space, I don't think you can have those kind of fallback options available. I think you're going to really struggle getting a bottom pair RD that can be passable in a top-4 role in free agency, just because of the cap. That's likely going to cost you about $2.5-$3 million with term, and it's a legitimate question to ask how much better someone like DeMelo would do in that role vs Ruhwedel.

Because Ruh being a 7D is perfect and that's what his position on the org chart has always been and that's what his cap hit reflects.

I am totally happy to spend 2.5m - 3m with term on it if needs be. Or more. Make the cuts elsewhere. The question of whether the other guy will be better is a legit one but confront that one when you get a feel on who it's going to be.

2. I think you're overstating how unwilling young players are to take short term deals. RFAs don't have enough leverage to demand "set for life" paychecks, especially guys in Jarry's and McCann's shoes. Holdouts are well rare enough to the point where it shouldn't be considered a huge risk with those two, especially considering their lack of sustained success in the NHL. They may not get these guys to agree to a Pettersson style extension, but McCann and Jarry don't have the leverage to demand sizable contracts with term if the Penguins don't want to give him term.

I may have misread what you meant with point 2. I first read it as "youngsters may also say no to short term money deals", but re-reading makes me not sure if you're referring to guys like Dadonov or those youngsters with that comment.

I was talking about both. Obviously McCann and Jarry have relatively little leverage if the org says "we need to make your cap hit as low as possible so forget term" but they can employ what they have to get as much possible in their situation. Realistically I suspect this is more a case of both McCann and Jarry possibly being willing to take 2 or 3 years at their arbitration price or only 500k or so more and there being no point going 1 year.

 

[Andy99]

There is absolutely no way that the Penguins could afford Dadonov. There are teams that are swimming in cap space that will offer up expensive 1 year deals and then will trade these guys at the deadline as rentals. The Penguins are absolutely not going to be able to get someone like that, because someone like New Jersey or Ottawa will be able to offer double what the Penguins can offer.

Poulin is definitely a possibility, though. I wouldn't mind giving him a 9 game trial with Zucker/Guentzel and Crosby to see how well he meshes there. I would still definitely re-sign Sheary though, there's not a good reason not to re-sign him. Cheap skilled depth is always useful to have, especially considering that his salary will be more than compensated by Bjugstad's buyout.

well I guess count me among the people who don’t think Sheary is going to take much if any pay cut and I don’t want him at $3 mil per....

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Good for everyone really. If we can turn a depth dman we got for free into a 4th or 5th, that'd be a win. A small win, but one nevertheless.

If we trade Riikola for a late pick because we've continued to prioritize JJ, I can't see how that's anything but a loss.

 

[Gurglesons]

If we trade Riikola for a late pick because we've continued to prioritize JJ, I can't see how that's anything but a loss.

Because we turned a free signing into an asset and a player here for two years?

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Here’s an interesting discussion of the Murray Jarry debate....

PHR Panel: What Happens Between Pittsburgh's Pipes?

I'm in the boat of sign both to 1-2yr deals each and let the expansion draft take the one that loses the battle.

 

[Andy99]

I'm in the boat of sign both to 1-2yr deals each and let the expansion draft take the one that loses the battle.

Except if the expansion draft remains in 2021 then anyone we sign to a one year deal won’t be available in that draft to expose...we have CDS to expose but one of the two won’t be taken in that draft. We would have to re-sign one and let the other walk but we can kick that decision to another year. The disadvantage is that we couldn’t trade one of these guys and hopefully get something of good value back (probably only if it’s Murray)

 

[Empoleon8771]

Except if the expansion draft remains in 2021 then anyone we sign to a one year deal won’t be available in that draft to expose...we have CDS to expose but one of the two won’t be taken in that draft. We would have to re-sign one and let the other walk but we can kick that decision to another year. The disadvantage is that we couldn’t trade one of these guys and hopefully get something of good value back (probably only if it’s Murray)

That's not true, RFAs are free to expose in the expansion draft. What will probably happen is that they'll sign both to 1 year deals, which takes Murray to UFA and Jarry to RFA, and they'll protect Jarry and expose DeSmith.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Another Jarry comparable just signed:



2 year deal, no word on the AAV yet. I think the Korpisalo contract is a great framework for a Jarry extension (2 years at $2.8 million AAV), and I imagine this deal will fall similarly to that one.



Oof that's bad news for the Penguins when it comes to Jarry. I think the Penguins will push for the Korpisalo contract and Jarry will push for the Elvis contract, and frankly I think Jarry has a stronger case. I think 1 year at $2.75 million or 2 years at $3.5 million are both fair guesses for Jarry based on these contracts.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Merzlikins had 4 or 5 pro seasons over in Europe though. I think the Korpisalo contracto is closer to what Jarry'll get, with Korpisalo being paid more.

Yeah, I'm leaving that typo.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Because we turned a free signing into an asset and a player here for two years?

Meh

 

[Andy99]

That's not true, RFAs are free to expose in the expansion draft. What will probably happen is that they'll sign both to 1 year deals, which takes Murray to UFA and Jarry to RFA, and they'll protect Jarry and expose DeSmith.

Ok. I forgot Jarry would still be a RFA after next season...it applies to Murray though...he’ll be unavailable in the expansion draft with a one year deal unless they re-sign him longer term

I still think Jarry gets two years and Murray is either traded or accepts a reasonable one year deal...btw, Vensel in his chat today projected Murray accepting a one year deal for $6 mil...if that’s a cheap one year deal in his mind then trade him already

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think some of the Pittsburgh hockey guys are grossly overestimating how much money Murray is going to get. When was the last time a guy who put up a sub-.900 save% over a full season got the kind of pay day that these guys are suggesting Murray gets?

I really think the only argument those guys have is the fact he won cups in the past, and they just keep repeating that non-stop as if his current play doesn't matter at all.

 

[Andy99]

I think some of the Pittsburgh hockey guys are grossly overestimating how much money Murray is going to get. When was the last time a guy who put up a sub-.900 save% over a full season got the kind of pay day that these guys are suggesting Murray gets?

I really think the only argument those guys have is the fact he won cups in the past, and they just keep repeating that non-stop as if his current play doesn't matter at all.

Probably talking to Murray’s agent...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Probably talking to Murray’s agent...

No I think they just super overrate Murray because of team success, similar to what they did to Fleury.

What's interesting is that you can also point to Fleury's contract history as proof that the Pittsburgh media guys are way off. Maybe Fleury was just a good team player that wanted to stay in Pittsburgh and didn't want to chase money, which is totally believable because he was a great person that loved Pittsburgh, but he didn't get a raise at all with his new deal signed in 2014. That deal was just a 4 year extension on what he was already making at the end of his 7 year deal from 2008. If the Pittsburgh media guys were right, you would have assumed that Fleury would have gotten a massive boost in salary in 2014. This also doesn't mention the fact that Fleury in 2014 was a clearly better goalie than Murray is right now.

 

[Gurglesons]

Probably talking to Murray’s agent...

If we want to play hardball with Murray it’ll be very bad for him.

Honestly, I think if I’m the Pens I’m arguing he is in between Gibson and Andersen and probably at the high end worth 5.5.

 

[Andy99]

If we want to play hardball with Murray it’ll be very bad for him.

Honestly, I think if I’m the Pens I’m arguing he is in between Gibson and Andersen and probably at the high end worth 5.5.

And that’s on a multi year deal...if he’s taking a one year deal for his last RFA year to take him to FA, he should agree to another year at his current contract, or certainly not much more than $4 mil...

 

[Empoleon8771]

If we want to play hardball with Murray it’ll be very bad for him.

Honestly, I think if I’m the Pens I’m arguing he is in between Gibson and Andersen and probably at the high end worth 5.5.

Honestly I don't even see an argument he's better than Andersen. Andersen has been consistently at the level of 2018-2019 Murray for his entire career outside of this year, and he hasn't dealt with the injury problems Murray has had. The only case that Murray has for even getting a raise is the fact that he won cups years ago.

If Murray plays hardball, it's very likely that he will go unsigned by all teams. Not because he's not good enough for the NHL, but because he's just flat out not worth the kind of money he thinks he's worth if he's playing hardball.

 

[Peat]

If Murray wants to play hardball, trade him for the best offer and move on.

If we trade Riikola for a late pick because we've continued to prioritize JJ, I can't see how that's anything but a loss.

Beats playing him for 30 games next season and losing him to UFA because we prioritised JJ

 

[BrookswasHere44]

I think some of the Pittsburgh hockey guys are grossly overestimating how much money Murray is going to get. When was the last time a guy who put up a sub-.900 save% over a full season got the kind of pay day that these guys are suggesting Murray gets?

I really think the only argument those guys have is the fact he won cups in the past, and they just keep repeating that non-stop as if his current play doesn't matter at all.

But CUPS and stuff!!

 

[Gurglesons]

Honestly I don't even see an argument he's better than Andersen. Andersen has been consistently at the level of 2018-2019 Murray for his entire career outside of this year, and he hasn't dealt with the injury problems Murray has had. The only case that Murray has for even getting a raise is the fact that he won cups years ago.

If Murray plays hardball, it's very likely that he will go unsigned by all teams. Not because he's not good enough for the NHL, but because he's just flat out not worth the kind of money he thinks he's worth if he's playing hardball.

Eh. I think there are a lot of teams that systematically think they could correct where Murray’s issues are.

San Jose, Calgary or Carolina would be prime examples.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

If Murray plays hardball, it's very likely that he will go unsigned by all teams. Not because he's not good enough for the NHL, but because he's just flat out not worth the kind of money he thinks he's worth if he's playing hardball.

They also likely won't have the money/cap room.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Beats playing him for 30 games next season and losing him to UFA because we prioritised JJ

*shakes fist at sky impotently*

 

[Gurglesons]

Meh

I do think it is weird that this board advocates anyone is interchangeable and then gets attached to these borderline NHLers like Riikola, Sprong or even proven utility pieces like Hagelin or Kahun.

I understand the idea, but I dunno. And I was a big Bones advocate so I guess I’m being hypocritical. But mid six wingers and bottom pairing D are the easiest positions to acquire.