Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - Please go full Redden on JJ's...

[Andy99]

I don't think Schultz get that much. He will be 30 when he signs his next deal. Faulk is only 27.

I think average will be close but term will be less. Still to much for the pens but I think he signs with someone for

6mil x 5
or
5.5 x 7

I think you could get him to drop the average if someone commits more years.

Buuuuuut if the cap goes up who knows what some crazy gm will throw out.

Don’t see anyone offering Schultz 7 years...most would be five years, maybe even four years, and around $6 mil...

 

[Louis Hensler]

How much cap does that even save, though? And does anyone see this team burying him for 4 more years?

With every passing year, JJ's contract becomes easier to move. Burying him in the minors helps in every way.

 

[chethejet]

How Letang looks this year will certainly factor in his future here. No way I give him any term past 4 years or 5 with a lower AAV. I am assuming JJ is gone at his cap hit and maybe Marino gives them a RH D who can be a number 4 guy. Plus Gudbranson can play more minutes to not expose Marino to much early on. In short If cap is expected to be 84 .5 million next year, then Pens have room for McCaan, Schultz and Kahun and Petts especially if JJ is gone for prospects and a pick even with 500K in retension per.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Its just strange that STL wanted Faulk. They already have Parayko and Petro on the right side. Maybe they arent confident about Petro re-signing?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

With every passing year, JJ's contract becomes easier to move. Burying him in the minors helps in every way.

It's also not realistic, imo. I'm all for it, but it ain't gonna happen.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Don’t see anyone offering Schultz 7 years...most would be five years, maybe even four years, and around $6 mil...

Schultz is a worse player than Faulk and Faulk has these shot charts. If Schultz is getting even close to what Faulk makes, a team is going to regret it.

 

[Louis Hensler]

Gudbranson is a real asset now and his off season training was to add quickness and better first stride skating. He will be the biggest surprise on the Pens and RD is in better shape now. Yes do I think Rust and JJ in a package deal can be done? Yes if lafferty can be that 4th line guy with Simon/Reese and TB. But I am still hesitant to trade Rust as he can be a great fit on Malkins line.

JJ + Jarry for a bucket of pucks.

 

[Darren McCord]

However one thing to keep in mind this is the UFA dmen next summer. If the cap only goes up say 1 mil. Will there be enough money to go around with all these huge RFA deals?

There market could be flooded and lower prices

Alex Pietrangelo (Low chance to resign with Faulk now)
Tyson Barrie (Low chance to resign due to team cap)
Justin Schultz (Low chance to resign due to team cap)
Mike Green (Prob will resign)
Torey Krug (Low chance to resign due to team cap)
Zach Bogosian
Sami Vatanen (Prob will resign)
T.J. Brodie
Cody Ceci (Low chance to resign due to team cap)
Chris Tanev
Dmitry Kulikov
Roman Josi (will resign)
Jacob Muzzin (Low chance to resign due to team cap)
Marco Scandella
Travis Hamonic
Radko Gudas
Brenden Dillon
Joel Edmundson
Trevor Van Riemsdyk
Kevin Shattenkirk (Low chance to resign due to team cap)
Erik Gustafsson

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

What measures are these exactly? Other than points.

Schultz is gonna cost what Faulk did. Are we really going to be Vancouver and fill our roster with bad contracts just because we'd have a hole otherwise?

Points and possession numbers were solid. What measures did you use to determine that he wasn't a top 4 d?

That's worth 6 mil in 2020 if he can stay fairly healthy.

 

[Khelandros]

Bickell sure, but not Marleau. He had a full NTC/NMC and was demanding to be traded and bought out. The price for that was always going to be steep.

Am on my phone so cant really check, but I thought Bickell was a situation where CHI had to move money, not would 'like' to move money, which is where we're currently at.

Empo beat me to it - Terevainen for Bickell was the comparable I was thinking of. And while I don't know where the Blackhawks' cap status was at the time, I'm assuming we're talking a trade next summer, where we really do have to dump as much cap as possible.

I might be wrong about the exact cost but that is what people are going to target - cheap and high quality.


edit: And this is why I'm willing to be patient about JJ's removal. Now Pettersson's on his bridge, it doesn't have to be done this season as long as the team is semi-realistic about his performance and game time.

But it will have to be done next off-season and the cleaner and cheaper it can be, the better.

Bickell was making $4MM against the cap at the time, 6.22% of the cap. Toews and Kane were starting their seasons of $10.5MM cap hits. Chicago was $4.5MM over the cap so they sent Bickell to the minors for the 2015-16 season. Traded him to Carolina in the off season because they had to get rid of salary. There were guys that needed raises and Bickell absolutely had to be shipped out. That is why Terevainen was included.

 

[Gurglesons]

Really interesting move by St Louis. They give up Edmunson, they have Dunn, and are going to lose JB due to age. I guess they figure Piets can handle anyone on his pairing and Parayko - Faulk will be their top D?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If you think Schultz getting a Faulk type of contract will be good, well I'll just leave this here:



If Schultz plays 70+ games and gets 30+ points, giving him $6 million a year would be dreadfully bad. "Good" means "playing at the same level he did in 2016-2017".



Giving term to a guy who has played at a $5.5 million level once in his career sounds like a monumentally bad idea.

hate how definitive some of these analytics twitter guys make their opinions/takes. How is that a “fleecing” for Carolina? The return could legitimately end up being nothing.

 

[Andy99]

Schultz is a worse player than Faulk and Faulk has these shot charts. If Schultz is getting even close to what Faulk makes, a team is going to regret it.

It’s the going rate for a second pairing offensive D man as we’re seeing...Pens either pay for it or someone else will...imo he’s worth it because we don’t have anyone who can do what he does, and no Marino does not, and if he makes G’s line a positive O line with good O numbers, he’s worth that much to the Pens...

 

[K Fleur]

Every time I’ve seen Dunn play for the Blues I’ve thought he was awesome.

 

[Empoleon8771]

hate how definitive some of these analytics twitter guys make their opinions/takes. How is that a “fleecing” for Carolina? The return could legitimately end up being nothing.

It's because Faulk is a horrendous analytical player so getting a recent 1st rounder for him is a good deal. I do think McCurdy underrates shooting talent, which hurts Faulk because he's good at producing points, but his shot results are pretty awful.

 

[Gurglesons]

Every time I’ve seen Dunn play for the Blues I’ve thought he was awesome.

He is pretty solid, but also a mess defensively.

I guess it is just interesting to see such a defensively structured D take such a risk defensively in terms of that term.

Then again, Shattenkirk excelled there.

 

[Darren McCord]

Don’t see anyone offering Schultz 7 years...most would be five years, maybe even four years, and around $6 mil...

Ya idk i think if the penguins really wanted schultz they might be able to connive him to sign a 5x5 honestly these recent rfas are taking the ufa money away.

 

[Louis Hensler]

We'll see. I hope you're right, and I'd be more than fine with a Riikola-Gudbranson bottom pairing, but I don't have that much faith. I think JJ will find his way into the lineup, if for no other reason than as a way to try and justify his contract.

Surely we're beyond the point of trying to justify his contract now? GMJR isn't entirely irrational. He dumped Hunwick when he had to. I would assume he's been trying to trade JJ for months now with zero interest. There's no reason to imagine interest will suddenly appear.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If Schultz plays 70+ games and gets 30+ points, giving him $6 million a year would be dreadfully bad. "Good" means "playing at the same level he did in 2016-2017".

Now explain how Gudbranson can be worth 4 mil while scoring 20 fewer ES points and requiring a steady defensive complement himself to avoid getting dunked on possession-wise.

 

[mpp9]

That's two legit upgrades on defense that went for peanuts. All we needed was not to be in a mangled cap position.

This defense better perform.

 

[K Fleur]

He is pretty solid, but also a mess defensively.

I guess it is just interesting to see such a defensively structured D take such a risk defensively in terms of that term.

Then again, Shattenkirk excelled there.

Admittedly I don’t go out of my way to watch Blues games so my sample size is limited. But...

I’ll take that defensive mess over pretty much any of the Pens messes defensively.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Now explain how Gudbranson can be worth 4 mil while scoring 20 fewer ES points and requiring a steady defensive complement himself to avoid getting dunked on possession-wise.

I'm pretty sure I've been adamant that Gudbranson isn't worth $4 million, but that's completely irrelevant of this discussion. Gudbranson at $4 million is less overpaid than Schultz at $6.5 million would be.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Surely we're beyond the point of trying to justify his contract now? GMJR isn't entirely irrational. He dumped Hunwick when he had to. I would assume he's been trying to trade JJ for months now with zero interest. There's no reason to imagine interest will suddenly appear.

There's nothing rational about NHL GMs man.

We just signed Tanev to a 6 year deal because we wanted a new Hagelin. I think he only dumped Hunwick because he knew the injury/concussion thing meant he was damaged goods.

I think you're right about him trying to trade JJ though. Problem is, JR has always been a cowboy when it comes to GMing, and I don't doubt for a second he's turned down trades to move JJ because he's trying to get a steal. Clock's tickin'.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

It's because Faulk is a horrendous analytical player so getting a recent 1st rounder for him is a good deal. I do think McCurdy underrates shooting talent, which hurts Faulk because he's good at producing points, but his shot results are pretty awful.

by his analysis. Other models have Faulk as solid, and he’s not horrific by the eye test.

Regardless, Faulk had good value in the real world and Carolina only gets a dice roll back. If he wants to say “this could be a fleecing if Bokk turns into a player” - fine- but it’s really hard for me to see how it’s immediately some genius deal for Carolina.

 

[Gurglesons]

by his analysis. Other models have Faulk as solid, and he’s not horrific by the eye test.

Regardless, Faulk had good value in the real world and Carolina only gets a dice roll back. If he wants to say “this could be a fleecing if Bokk turns into a player” - fine- but it’s really hard for me to see how it’s immediately some genius deal for Carolina.

Yeah, Micah seems to become a good reference of just looking at a chart and making an assumption. Curious why he hasn’t been hired if there was so much consistency in his data.