Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap - No man of the flesh could ever stop me

[Empoleon8771]

Ah, so he woulda gone 2/2? Why couldn't I turn back around and say that MAF would have gone 2/2?

People really need to get more mature about compartmentalizing their MAF-hate. Hate the Yinzer Jesus status, recognize his integral part in the 2009 and 2017 Cups. Shouldn't be hard but the human brain is complex, I suppose. Unless you're Alex Galchenyuk.

Also the Caps series was more lopsided against than the Preds series. It's all here:
Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Who is being immature about their MAF-hate? You're doing a lot of projection for other people being fans of Murray and hating on Fleury, when I see you being more of a Jarry fan and hating on Murray. Saying the only reason they went with 2 goalies in 2017 is because of Murray's injury is factually correct. Saying that Murray could have done what Fleury did in that Capitals series based on how he performed in the Predators series is completely fair.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't think "who is better?" is really relevant here. Both are good starting goalie options, just like both Holtby/Grubauer, Andersen/Gibson and Bishop/Vasilevskiy. I think most people here agree that keeping Jarry is probably the better decision, but no one here is in charge of the Penguins. All that matters is what JR thinks, and based on what other GMs do, there's often a gap between what fans want and what GMs do in these kind of situations.

I think people in here need to differentiate between what they want to do and what they think the Penguins will do. In my opinion, the extra cap space saved by keeping Jarry outweighs the advantage Murray has in terms of experience, which is directly related to the acquisition of Zucker (I was on team "Keep Both" before that trade). But I'm not calling the shots.

Glad you and I agree on this one as far as what the right thing to do is.

 

[EightyOne]

I guess I just don’t see the necessity.

We have plenty of players we can move out to afford them.

Like I don’t see why it would be surprising if he we sign Jarry to a 2 mil deal with a few years taking him to UFA tomorrow.

I'd assume Plan A is keep both.

I'd like that. But it's gotta be realistic salaries. 2-3 and 7-8 for 10 is like..max, otherwise I would just trade one AND continue to improve and shave costs elsewhere on roster and just have a better overall team.

 

[madinsomniac]

I think no matter what Murray or Jarry is traded in the offseason... like 99% sure... I think it will be Murray simply because he is going to ask for an ungodly amount of money if he has any success this postseason and I think he will. He is a two time cup winner who is still very young and his asking price is going to be closer to or over 8 million... its not going to be pretty...

Jarry has similar stats, hasn’t reached his plateau yet, and is going to be much much cheaper ... JR seems extremely high on him.

Unless Jarry utterly falls apart I honestly don’t think even another cup with Mur will keep them from moving on from him unless he signs long term at discount.....

having said that I think Murray gets the playoffs here, no question. Its his job to lose...

But ultimately it is a business and a cheaper option with equal or in some areas better results is probably the way to go for a team that needs all the cap space it can muster

 

[Peat]

Based on what? He basically did that against the Predators in the cup finals that year.

Murray also posted a better save percentage than MAF in a series where we were also outchanced the year before vs the Caps.

What MAF did was majestic and I love him for it, but it wasn't something outside of Murray's reach in general, nor was it in a year where he basically looked borderline undefeatable in the playoffs.

Maybe we can do better for McCann. I dunno. Sure, get a 1st or better if that helps.

It isn't great long-term value on Murray but it may help us win the Cup next year. That's part of the point of asset value, no?

Of course we can also sign Murray to a long-term deal to get the cap hit down and be able to trade him for stuff...but we'd need to make sure it came without a no-trade clause. Not sure that we can pull that off.

We absolutely could. Just maybe not if you're forcing him out as a cap casualty. Possibly not the only one either.

And how does keeping Murray appreciably move the needle over just having Jarry?

Finally - it's very, very easy to ensure Murray's next contract doesn't come with an NTC clause in its first summer, and that's because he's not allowed one until he's eligible for UFA. It wouldn't kick in until YR 2.

I guess I just don’t see the necessity.

We have plenty of players we can move out to afford them.

Like I don’t see why it would be surprising if he we sign Jarry to a 2 mil deal with a few years taking him to UFA tomorrow. Nash did the same thing with Saros.

Because Jarry can get a better deal in arbitration if he likes?

I'd assume Plan A is keep both.

I'd like that. But it's gotta be realistic salaries. 2-3 and 7-8 for 10 is like..max, otherwise I would just trade one AND continue to improve and shave costs elsewhere on roster and just have a better overall team.

I don't think it is. Too much cap. Too much risk for drama. I expect a decision to be made this summer.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Whenever I have more time, I want to see how much cap space I can reasonably get for a goalie tandem of Murray-Jarry next year. I haven't actually ran the numbers to see where they'd be with the cap if they tried to keep both, I'm just assuming they can't do it because they were already pressed at the cap for net year with both goalies before the Zucker trade.

My gut feeling is that you have to trade all of Bjugstad, JJ, DeSmith and 2 of Kahun, McCann or Simon to make it work. But that's just my gut feeling, that may not be right.

 

[Flying Dego]

I don't think "who is better?" is really relevant here. Both are good starting goalie options, just like both Holtby/Grubauer, Andersen/Gibson and Bishop/Vasilevskiy. I think most people here agree that keeping Jarry is probably the better decision, but no one here is in charge of the Penguins. All that matters is what JR thinks, and based on what other GMs do, there's often a gap between what fans want and what GMs do in these kind of situations.

I think people in here need to differentiate between what they want to do and what they think the Penguins will do. In my opinion, the extra cap space saved by keeping Jarry outweighs the advantage Murray has in terms of experience, which is directly related to the acquisition of Zucker (I was on team "Keep Both" before that trade). But I'm not calling the shots.

I agree...why I've stated it's my opinion. I also don't have personal connections like the GMs coaches do. So I get that our opinions mean little. I do feel fans can look at it from an outsider point of view more reasonably at times.

For instance: I dislike that Sully loves himself MOAR ZAR. But he makes the big bucks and has proven himself so o well. Maybe they have some really raw emotional coffee dates? We don't share the same connection.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'm not comfortable paying Murray anything more than like $5 million, maybe half a million more. He's at best part of a goalie by committee with Jarry now, and at worst, a clearly defined backup to Jarry. Horrendous asset/cap management to give him a big contract.

 

[Flying Dego]

Whenever I have more time, I want to see how much cap space I can reasonably get for a goalie tandem of Murray-Jarry next year. I haven't actually ran the numbers to see where they'd be with the cap if they tried to keep both, I'm just assuming they can't do it because they were already pressed at the cap for net year with both goalies before the Zucker trade.

My gut feeling is that you have to trade all of Bjugstad, JJ, DeSmith and 2 of Kahun, McCann or Simon to make it work. But that's just my gut feeling, that may not be right.

I want to see this to...but I lack the time and will to put that effort in...haha.

I can't imagine keeping both and not losing our depth advantage.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Who is being immature about their MAF-hate? You're doing a lot of projection for other people being fans of Murray and hating on Fleury, when I see you being more of a Jarry fan and hating on Murray. Saying the only reason they went with 2 goalies in 2017 is because of Murray's injury is factually correct. Saying that Murray could have done what Fleury did in that Capitals series based on how he performed in the Predators series is completely fair.

It's fair to say we're both projecting. Here's what I actually am:
I'm a fan of my team having money. I like it when my team has money and doesn't commit huge money to a volatile position goaltending. It's the same part of my brain that was aghast that my football team was considering paying Le'Veon Bell huge money.

If you sign Jarry, you don't commit huge money to goaltending. If you sign Murray, you probably do.

Saying the only reason they went with 2 goalies in 2017 is because of Murray's injury is factually correct. Saying that Murray could have done what Fleury did in that Capitals series based on how he performed in the Predators series is completely fair.

Sentence 1 is correct, do you really want me to subject you to the same logical fallacy stuff you recently pulled with me for Sentence 2?

 

[OswaldBates]

Toronto Maple Leafs @MapleLeafs
The @MapleLeafs have acquired forward Denis Malgin from Florida in exchange for Mason Marchment. HUH?????????

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Jarry's not going to get to July 1st while still being an offersheet risk. JR is most likely going to have the goalie situation sorted out by the draft, he's either going to set it up so he can keep both of them or he'll move one of them. I think it's possible to keep both goalies, but it would just be really dumb to do so. I think there is an argument there for them trading either Murray (higher return, higher cap hit) or Jarry (less proven, teams usually trade him in this kind of situation), but the negatives of keeping both outweigh the positives fairly clearly.

Based on past trades, I think you'd get back either a borderline mid/high 1st (Schneider trade) or a late 1st and 2nd (Andersen trade) for Murray, while you're probably only getting a late 1st (Jones trade) or 2 2nds (Bernier trade, but a young NHLer instead of a 2nd) for Jarry. Either one would help restock the pool and set them up to add again in 2021 extremely well.

I don't think JR will trade either Murray or Jarry until he absolutely has to - probably the Seattle draft. Why would he? The platoon system has worked great this year, and the Pens won back-to-back Cups with it.

I don't believe the Pens will have to trade any of Simon, McCann, or Kahun either tbh. JR worked hard to accumulate young depth and I can't see him parting with it as soon as he gets it. People thought Petts would necessitate a purge and then he helped the Pens on a one year deal. I imagine this offseason will see the same.

Say goodbye to Schultz, ship off JJ and Bjugs, and get a couple young guys to take a hit this year. Then we good.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Imagine losing Jarry for a 2021 2nd rounder.

I’d riot.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I disagree with this. I don't think JR will trade either Murray or Jarry until he absolutely has to - probably the Seattle draft. Why would he? The platoon system has worked great this year, and the Pens won back-to-back Cups with it.

I don't believe the Pens will have to trade any of Simon, McCann, or Kahun either tbh. JR worked hard to accumulate young depth and I can't see him parting with it as soon as he gets it. People thought Petts would necessitate a purge and then he helped the Pens on a one year deal. I imagine this offseason will see the same.

The problem is that he'll most likely absolutely have to trade one of them this off-season. There is literally no reasonable way they can keep all of Murray, Jarry, Kahun, Simon and McCann.

 

[Flying Dego]

I'd assume Plan A is keep both.

I'd like that. But it's gotta be realistic salaries. 2-3 and 7-8 for 10 is like..max, otherwise I would just trade one AND continue to improve and shave costs elsewhere on roster and just have a better overall team.

If we can sign TJ for under 3M I'll eat my shorts unless he s**** himself can't see it. If he finishes a Vezina finalist? 3.5-4.5 would be more likely I think. But I'm just guessing.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The problem is that he'll most likely absolutely have to trade one of them this off-season. There is literally no reasonable way they can keep all of Murray, Jarry, Kahun, Simon and McCann.

Check my ninja edit.

 

[Peat]

I don't think JR will trade either Murray or Jarry until he absolutely has to - probably the Seattle draft. Why would he? The platoon system has worked great this year, and the Pens won back-to-back Cups with it.

I don't believe the Pens will have to trade any of Simon, McCann, or Kahun either tbh. JR worked hard to accumulate young depth and I can't see him parting with it as soon as he gets it. People thought Petts would necessitate a purge and then he helped the Pens on a one year deal. I imagine this offseason will see the same.

Pettersson was a surprise, and an unusual one, and one maybe only made possible due to a lack of arbitration rights when I don't think any of this year's crop have. And I think that now Zucker is here, Rutherford would have got multiple Petterssons for it work. Market value for a Murray/Jarry tandem feels like 10m. I don't get how that works with keeping the depth.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Murray also posted a better save percentage than MAF in a series where we were also outchanced the year before vs the Caps.

What MAF did was majestic and I love him for it, but it wasn't something outside of Murray's reach in general, nor was it in a year where he basically looked borderline undefeatable in the playoffs.

Cmon Peat, you're an advanced stat guy and you whip out save percentage for this one? I immediately knew that was a cherrypick, but I spent a lot of time in night classes during the 2016 run so I checked just to be sure:

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

xGF in the Washington 2016 series was even. Not 58% in the 2017 series.

Of course Murray MIGHT have also stolen the Washington series. I think the odds are less than 50% on that one but they aren't 0%. Murray is a really good goalie.

 

[TimmyD]

Whenever I have more time, I want to see how much cap space I can reasonably get for a goalie tandem of Murray-Jarry next year. I haven't actually ran the numbers to see where they'd be with the cap if they tried to keep both, I'm just assuming they can't do it because they were already pressed at the cap for net year with both goalies before the Zucker trade.

My gut feeling is that you have to trade all of Bjugstad, JJ, DeSmith and 2 of Kahun, McCann or Simon to make it work. But that's just my gut feeling, that may not be right.

I just played around on CapFriendly and trading Bjugstad, JJ and letting Schultz walk gives the Pens $12.3 million in cap space going into free agency. If you trade DeSmith that increases to around $13.5 million or maybe just a shade under that number. That isn't accounting for any increase in the cap either because I don't believe you can guarantee it increases... with that being said $13.5 million can't possibly be enough to keep all of McCann, Kahun, Simon, Jarry and Murray around while also finding a bottom pairing left and right defensemen

 

[Gurglesons]

@Peat

Not sure I agree with the arbitration argument. If I’m Rutherford I point to the fact he played 20+ games and was mediocre as hell in 17-18 and basically lost his chance at the back up position in 18-19. One great year doesn’t change that.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Pettersson was a surprise, and an unusual one, and one maybe only made possible due to a lack of arbitration rights when I don't think any of this year's crop have. And I think that now Zucker is here, Rutherford would have got multiple Petterssons for it work. Market value for a Murray/Jarry tandem feels like 10m. I don't get how that works with keeping the depth.

I figure players realize how good they have it here, how JR took care of Petts after he took one for the team, and how unique the draft situation is in the summer of 2021 that will open up cap space for everyone.

All the talk about losing one of our young contributors strikes me as so much hand-wringing.

 

[SEALBound]

My preference in keeping McCann, Kahun, and Simon goes in that exact order. Though, I suspect the Pens order is actually Simon, McCann, Kahun.

Agreed. I worry that Simon is overvalued by the team in sort of the same way Dupuis was.

I ultimately see Jared McCann being traded for a late first round pick to make the cap work and Murray signing a 1-year, $7.5M deal or something to get him to UFA.

That is one of the worst ideas I've ever heard in my life. Just...terrible...this idea.

A team could offersheet TJ 4.2M and only pay a 2nd...JR needs to try and lock him down...if he is a Vezina finalist he'll be even more expensive. I doubt he's gonna be cheap by any stretch.

When's the last time we had a goalie this close to goalie of the year? I don't think Fleury ever was and MM hasn't been healthy or consistent enough to do it yet.

Keep in mind, Jarry would have to sign the offersheet. The mere submission of the offer sheet to the player does not automatically mean it's accepted. The player has to sign it and then the team gets the chance to match or accept compensation. What if Jarry really wants to stay? Offer sheets would be pretty meaningless then.

They "needed both" in 2017 because Murray got hurt. Predicting injuries is pretty much impossible to do.

I don't know which goalie will start at the beginning of the playoffs, but the only way they come out is if they stink or get hurt. They're not going to do a goalie rotation in the playoffs, just like they didn't do a goalie rotation in 2017.

Which is why JR has kept both and has also hung on to Desmith. If the playoffs started tomorrow, I think Murray would get the start...even though I don't know if that would be the 100% correct decision.

Toronto Maple Leafs @MapleLeafs
The @MapleLeafs have acquired forward Denis Malgin from Florida in exchange for Mason Marchment. HUH?????????

Well that...sucks...I would have loved Malgin here. He's always noticeable when we play Florida. I would have swapped ZAR for him...or damn near any one of our depth forwards. Machment is a decent AHL guy and has like 5 games for the Leafs in the NHL. Makes me sad.

 

[Empoleon8771]

With an $83.5 million cap, the Penguins currently have $14.525 million in cap space with 10 forwards (Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Hornqvist, Tanev, Rust, Bjugstad, ZAR and Blueger), 7 D (Dumoulin, Letang, JJ, Pettersson, Marino, Ruhwedel and Trotman) and DeSmith in WBS. If you can trade Bjugstad, DeSmith and JJ without taking any cap back (which is probably absurdly difficult to do), you're up to $22.05 million in cap space with 9 forwards and 6 D. Let's assume Lafferty gets a Blueger style extension ($750k) and Riikola gets $900k, you're now at $20.4 million in cap space with 10 forwards and 7 D. So to make a Murray and Jarry tandem work, you have to:

1. Get insanely lucky and move both Johnson and Bjugstad without taking any money back
2. Get Murray, Jarry, Kahun, Simon, McCann and a 14th forward/8th D signed for $20.4 million
3. Have an absolutely **** bottom pair of Riikola-Ruhwedel or Riikola-Trotman

1 seems like a pipe dream, 2 seems unlikely but I guess possible and 3 would kill their chances at contending next year. Not only that, but if you actually manage to do 1 and 2, you can't upgrade your defense because you have no cap space left. So yeah, it may be "possible" in theory, but it's super unrealistic and shouldn't be considered the main plan. It is workable in theory, maybe to trade Kahun/McCann with JJ and get back a cheap #4/5 D, but it's very unrealistic.

 

[Peat]

Cmon Peat, you're an advanced stat guy and you whip out save percentage for this one? I immediately knew that was a cherrypick, but I spent a lot of time in night classes during the 2016 run so I checked just to be sure:

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

xGF in the Washington 2016 series was even. Not 58% in the 2017 series.

Of course Murray MIGHT have also stolen the Washington series. I think the odds are less than 50% on that one but they aren't 0%. Murray is a really good goalie.

Getting goals saved above expected vs one particular team is an almighty faff on NST so I went with an easy illustrative stat and relied on people's memories to fill in the blanks. It was still a stolen series, goaltending wise; if you compare GA/60 against xGA/60 for both as a percentage, its 111 for 15/16 and 115 for 16/17 - pretty close. Our team being slightly better at retaining the puck (but actually worse at putting it in) in attack one year doesn't change that.

And I'll thank you not to accuse me of cherrypicking in future. You think I've missed something, I'm all ears. You think I'm deliberately massaging the stats, that's the end of the chat. I miss plenty but have no time for misleading people and less time for a conversation based around the premise that's what's going on.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Well that...sucks...I would have loved Malgin here. He's always noticeable when we play Florida. I would have swapped ZAR for him...or damn near any one of our depth forwards. Machment is a decent AHL guy and has like 5 games for the Leafs in the NHL. Makes me sad.

But the poor Pens pbp guy...