Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap - No man of the flesh could ever stop me

[Empoleon8771]

Jarry isn't the backup. He's the platoon starter having a better season and he will be cheaper.

I get that you're a Murray guy but it'd be ludicrous to move the cheaper guy to keep the more expensive guy if they are equal from a performance standpoint. Which I think they definitively are.

You're arguing semantics instead of what I was actually saying. This has nothing to do with me being a "Murray guy", this has to do with talking about how other teams treat these situations.

The Murray-Jarry situation for the Penguins now is the same situation that Washington had with Holtby-Grubauer in 2018. Holtby came into the year as the starter and started to struggle as Grubauer was playing great. The games eventually went to basically 50-50 down the stretch, with Grubauer starting in 16 and Holtby starting in 17 of the last 33 games while Grubauer was significantly outplaying Holtby. They traded Grubauer after the season, not Holtby.

Murray is still viewed the Penguins starting goalie if you want to believe Yohe on Madden's show last Thursday. Jarry is the backup to Murray like Grubauer was the backup to Holtby. That's not saying he's a backup caliber goalie, that's saying where he is on the depth chart. You can argue semantics about him being a platoon 1B goalie instead of a backup, but that's just arguing semantics. There is no basis to say that the chances of moving Jarry are that low because goalies in Jarry's situation get moved more often than the starting goalies do.

 

[Andy99]

I’ve said before that the goalie situation in the POs will be determinative of who they keep, assuming they’re both healthy and playing well in the RS...Murray will likely start the POs...if he plays well and we’re winning and make it at least to the ECF, and Jarry isn’t playing, then Jarry will be traded...if Murray falters at all and Jarry gets a chance and nails it, then Murr will be traded...it’s very simple...the Holtby-Grubs situation was that Grubs started the POs, faltered, Holtby came in and won a Cup for them...that’s why Grubs was traded...it had nothing to do with Holtby being the vet starter... the goalie situation will be become apparent in the POs

 

[Night Shift]

Man, I’d love to keep both goalies.

I second.

@Empoleon8771 you mentioned Ottawa as in on Murray but isn't Gustavsson close to being ready for them?

 

[ChaosAgent]

You're arguing semantics instead of what I was actually saying. This has nothing to do with me being a "Murray guy", this has to do with talking about how other teams treat these situations.

The Murray-Jarry situation for the Penguins now is the same situation that Washington had with Holtby-Grubauer in 2018. Holtby came into the year as the starter and started to struggle as Grubauer was playing great. The games eventually went to basically 50-50 down the stretch, with Grubauer starting in 16 and Holtby starting in 17 of the last 33 games while Grubauer was significantly outplaying Holtby. They traded Grubauer after the season, not Holtby.

Yeah, they traded Grubauer because they won a Cup in 2018 with Holtby carrying the load the entire time.

Since you're so big on jumping down people's throats for ignoring context, I thought you might mention that.

If the Penguins win the Cup this year with Murray starting the entire playoffs, of course we will keep him too.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Move Bjugs, move JJ, let Schultz walk. Shouldn't that be enough to keep us comfortable cap-wise?

I think Murray should probably be moved anyway, particularly if we can get a good return for him at the draft, but that's beside the point.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, they traded Grubauer because they won a Cup in 2018 with Holtby carrying the load the entire time.

Since you're so big on jumping down people's throats for ignoring context, I thought you might mention that.

If the Penguins win the Cup this year with Murray starting the entire playoffs, of course we will keep him too.

And the chances that the Penguins can go on a deep run with Murray playing well in the playoffs are well above the chances you gave the Penguins for trading Jarry.

 

[ChaosAgent]

And the chances that the Penguins can go on a deep run with Murray playing well in the playoffs are well above the chances you gave the Penguins for trading Jarry.

I think if we win the Cup this year we are going to need both. Same as MAF/Murray in 2017.

 

[Gurglesons]

Why does it matter who we trade? Both Murray and Jarry are playing great. Murray is entering peak age for goaltending. Jarry has one solid year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Move Bjugs, move JJ, let Schultz walk. Shouldn't that be enough to keep us comfortable cap-wise?

I think Murray should probably be moved anyway, particularly if we can get a good return for him at the draft, but that's beside the point.

1) You move JJ and you probably have to replace him with a $1.5-$2M guy. Unless you want to just run with Ruh-Riiks next year which I don't think we're willing to do.

2) This is also partially addressing the posters salivating at adding yet another forward with term next year, which would cost cap money.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think if we win the Cup this year we are going to need both. Same as MAF/Murray in 2017.

They "needed both" in 2017 because Murray got hurt. Predicting injuries is pretty much impossible to do.

I don't know which goalie will start at the beginning of the playoffs, but the only way they come out is if they stink or get hurt. They're not going to do a goalie rotation in the playoffs, just like they didn't do a goalie rotation in 2017.

 

[Flying Dego]

You're arguing semantics instead of what I was actually saying. This has nothing to do with me being a "Murray guy", this has to do with talking about how other teams treat these situations.

The Murray-Jarry situation for the Penguins now is the same situation that Washington had with Holtby-Grubauer in 2018. Holtby came into the year as the starter and started to struggle as Grubauer was playing great. The games eventually went to basically 50-50 down the stretch, with Grubauer starting in 16 and Holtby starting in 17 of the last 33 games while Grubauer was significantly outplaying Holtby. They traded Grubauer after the season, not Holtby.

Murray is still viewed the Penguins starting goalie if you want to believe Yohe on Madden's show last Thursday. Jarry is the backup to Murray like Grubauer was the backup to Holtby. That's not saying he's a backup caliber goalie, that's saying where he is on the depth chart. You can argue semantics about him being a platoon 1B goalie instead of a backup, but that's just arguing semantics. There is no basis to say that the chances of moving Jarry are that low because goalies in Jarry's situation get moved more often than the starting goalies do.

I certainly see our organization trying to keep MM as the starter. Mistake in my mind but I'm of the opinion that TJ is better. Both are very good mind you...

Remember TBL when Bishop/Vasy were a tandem? They chose to go younger/cheaper. Bishop is still performing near the top and Vasy is as well but he's expensive today. I think regardless both of our goalies will have successful careers.

I don't care to be called biased. I've watched enough hockey to assess for myself who I think will be better in the long run for the team. Whether I'm right or wrong only time will tell but nothing has changed my mind to this point.

Similar to the Caps- they should give TJ the playoff start and see if he cracks like Graubauer did....I'm very confident in his play and our team defense that he won't.

I can't see both staying past the summer so it's time to make sure TJ has the goods. Not leave it up to chance saying welp we didn't get to see him in the playoffs even though he was a league leader for his position...mine as well trade him for a 2nd.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

1) You move JJ and you probably have to replace him with a $1.5-$2M guy. Unless you want to just run with Ruh-Riiks next year which I don't think we're willing to do.

2) This is also partially addressing the posters salivating at adding yet another forward with term next year, which would cost cap money.

I think we're pretty set at forward. The only change I'd make is to add a 3C with an emphasis on skating to allow McCann to move over to wing again.

I don't really have a problem with a Riikola-Ruhwedel bottom pairing. I think way too much is made of the importance of the bottom pairing guys. As long as they're cheap and aren't horrifically bad, it's whatever. Riikola-Ruh certainly isn't great, but again, shelter them and give big minutes to your top-4. I'd still rather run a Petts-Riikola bottom pairing and find a LD for Marino if we're making any big moves.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I certainly see our organization trying to keep MM as the starter. Mistake in my mind but I'm of the opinion that TJ is better. Both are very good mind you...

Remember TBL when Bishop/Vasy were a tandem? They chose to go younger/cheaper. Bishop is still performing near the top and Vasy is as well but he's expensive today. I think regardless both of our goalies will have successful careers.

I don't care to be called biased. I've watched enough hockey to assess for myself who I think will be better in the long run for the team. Whether I'm right or wrong only time will tell but nothing has changed my mind to this point.

Similar to the Caps- they should give TJ the playoff start and see if he cracks like Graubauer did....I'm very confident in his play and our team defense that he won't.

I can't see both staying past the summer so it's time to make sure TJ has the goods. Not leave it up to chance saying welp we didn't get to see him in the playoffs even though he was a league leader for his position...mine as well trade him for a 2nd.

Yeah, that's another example like Andersen-Gibson where they actually went with the backup over the established starter. It definitely happens, it's just more common for the younger backups to get traded and teams to stick with their established starters. It will likely happen again this year when the Capitals go with Samsonov over Holtby, it's just not as common.

The Penguins should be playing whoever gives them the best chance at winning when the playoffs come around. Plans for the future should have no bearing on how they make lineup decisions this year, the goal is solely to win. If Murray finishes the season playing better than Jarry, you go with Murray in the playoffs.

 

[Peat]

Jarry has 11 starts in January-February.
Murray has 8 starts in January-February.

I do think Murray gets first crack at the playoffs because of experience but that's a tiny tiebreaker separating them.

And this is definitely actually the team's preferred solution and not just a response to current form that would swing if it changed? If Jarry badly lost form for 5 games, would he definitely be offered the chance to regain platoon starter status once he started showing form again?

Not really. You get a first for McCann and that player/pick becomes currency down the line. Like Addison was.

Instead of giving him 4/$16M.

It's not ideal asset management on the goalies but I am leaning towards keeping both. There's a lot of volatility in the position and so having 2 is better than having one. But obviously the expansion draft looms in 2021.

A solitary 1st for a 47 point pace 23 year old C/W is pretty shabby value and you've already admitted it's not great on the goaltenders, so how is this not bleeding asset value?

Move Bjugs, move JJ, let Schultz walk. Shouldn't that be enough to keep us comfortable cap-wise?

I think Murray should probably be moved anyway, particularly if we can get a good return for him at the draft, but that's beside the point.

Probably not. Take the roster we had at the season's beginning, assign any raise to not being over the cap/having a cushion and do a comparison...

Guddie's money - Pettersson's money
Schultz's money - Zucker's money
Chucky, JJ, Bjugs = Murray's/Jarry's/McCann's/Kahun's/Simon's raises? Probably not.

 

[Flying Dego]

I think we're pretty set at forward. The only change I'd make is to add a 3C with an emphasis on skating to allow McCann to move over to wing again.

I don't really have a problem with a Riikola-Ruhwedel bottom pairing. I think way too much is made of the importance of the bottom pairing guys. As long as they're cheap and aren't horrifically bad, it's whatever. Riikola-Ruh certainly isn't great, but again, shelter them and give big minutes to your top-4. I'd still rather run a Petts-Riikola bottom pairing and find a LD for Marino if we're making any big moves.

Unfortunately this team can't do Riik/Ruh bottom pair. You have to anticipate 2/3 defenseman out with long term injuries every year...you know it's true.

So we need more competent Dman.

 

[ChaosAgent]

They "needed both" in 2017 because Murray got hurt. Predicting injuries is pretty much impossible to do.

I don't know which goalie will start at the beginning of the playoffs, but the only way they come out is if they stink or get hurt. They're not going to do a goalie rotation in the playoffs, just like they didn't do a goalie rotation in 2017.

Murray would not have stolen the series against the Caps the way Fleury did.

As much as Fleury drives me crazy, his ceiling was absurdly high and he was peak-MAF against the Caps. We won a series in which we had 39% CF, 42% FF, 42% xGF, and 46% HDCF. I'm just going to let MAF's performance in that series speak for itself.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Murray would not have stolen the series against the Caps the way Fleury did.

As much as Fleury drives me crazy, his ceiling was absurdly high and he was peak-MAF against the Caps. We won a series in which we had 39% CF, 42% FF, 42% xGF, and 46% HDCF. I'm just going to let MAF's performance in that series speak for itself.

Based on what? He basically did that against the Predators in the cup finals that year.

 

[EightyOne]

Why does it matter who we trade? Both Murray and Jarry are playing great. Murray is entering peak age for goaltending. Jarry has one solid year.

3-5$ mil to help the construction of the rest of your team is why it matters

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Shit, if we have to move someone due a raise, it's Simon easily. Kahun's just a better Simon, and McCann's an important part of the third line--be it a C or LW.

 

[ChaosAgent]

And this is definitely actually the team's preferred solution and not just a response to current form that would swing if it changed? If Jarry badly lost form for 5 games, would he definitely be offered the chance to regain platoon starter status once he started showing form again?



A solitary 1st for a 47 point pace 23 year old C/W is pretty shabby value and you've already admitted it's not great on the goaltenders, so how is this not bleeding asset value?

Maybe we can do better for McCann. I dunno. Sure, get a 1st or better if that helps.

It isn't great long-term value on Murray but it may help us win the Cup next year. That's part of the point of asset value, no?

Of course we can also sign Murray to a long-term deal to get the cap hit down and be able to trade him for stuff...but we'd need to make sure it came without a no-trade clause. Not sure that we can pull that off.

 

[Flying Dego]

Yeah, that's another example like Andersen-Gibson where they actually went with the backup over the established starter. It definitely happens, it's just more common for the younger backups to get traded and teams to stick with their established starters. It will likely happen again this year when the Capitals go with Samsonov over Holtby, it's just not as common.

I know it's uncommon and it's unique bc MM had a hand in two cup runs...which clouds judgement on who's better IMO.

Both deserve their chance to prove themselves again this playoffs that's all I ask to see. If our team D stays stellar I feel both will perform well.

Jarry is truly rocking it this season looking at the GSAA analytic:
Rask: 21.57 (1st)
Jarry: 18.94 (2nd)
They are both separated from the pack IMO

MAF: -4.09(44)
MM: -4.42 (45)
Ironic those two in a firefight...granted MM has improved drastically in the last month so at least he's not negative double digits bad.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Why does it matter who we trade? Both Murray and Jarry are playing great. Murray is entering peak age for goaltending. Jarry has one solid year.

It matters because the Pens are a cap strapped team and one goalie will be making about twice as much as the other, so JR's decision is critical. He can't get this wrong, and keeping them both will kill their cap.

The playoffs should likely help reveal who they should keep, if they make a deep run. If they bow out in round one, that complicates things IMHO.

JR has a tough decision because if he trades Murray and Jarry falters, it looks bad... if he trades Jarry and he turns into a star, while Murray falters and makes 7m+, that is going to be an even more tragic outcome.

Maybe both go on and do very well, which in that case I'd rather keep Jarry since he will be cost controlled for a couple more seasons... of course that's hindsight but the point remains.

There is a lot to take into account here, not just flip a coin and hope.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Based on what? He basically did that against the Predators in the cup finals that year.

Ah, so he woulda gone 2/2? Why couldn't I turn back around and say that MAF would have gone 2/2?

People really need to get more mature about compartmentalizing their MAF-hate. Hate the Yinzer Jesus status, recognize his integral part in the 2009 and 2017 Cups. Shouldn't be hard but the human brain is complex, I suppose. Unless you're Alex Galchenyuk.

Also the Caps series was more lopsided against than the Preds series. It's all here:
Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Gurglesons]

3-5$ mil to help the construction of the rest of your team is why it matters

I guess I just don’t see the necessity.

We have plenty of players we can move out to afford them.

Like I don’t see why it would be surprising if he we sign Jarry to a 2 mil deal with a few years taking him to UFA tomorrow. Nash did the same thing with Saros.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I know it's uncommon and it's unique bc MM had a hand in two cup runs...which clouds judgement on who's better IMO.

I don't think "who is better?" is really relevant here. Both are good starting goalie options, just like both Holtby/Grubauer, Andersen/Gibson and Bishop/Vasilevskiy. I think most people here agree that keeping Jarry is probably the better decision, but no one here is in charge of the Penguins. All that matters is what JR thinks, and based on what other GMs do, there's often a gap between what fans want and what GMs do in these kind of situations.

I think people in here need to differentiate between what they want to do and what they think the Penguins will do. In my opinion, the extra cap space saved by keeping Jarry outweighs the advantage Murray has in terms of experience, which is directly related to the acquisition of Zucker (I was on team "Keep Both" before that trade). But I'm not calling the shots.