Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap - No man of the flesh could ever stop me

[Randy Butternubs]

Some good conversations going on. Let's keep it that way and continue here.

Speaking of future cap troubles, I’d pencil in Kahun as the player we should make all efforts to keep. Losing McCann would sting, as would Simon, but Kahun is the must-keep of those three, IMO.

My gut says JR isn’t done. I see ye olde hockey trade potential. Pens have lots of role players who have proven versatile depth, creating some sense of duplicative quality parts. Doubt we land or target anyone big name or high price. But I could see Rutherford trading need for need, or more role for role on the bottom 6 side.

personally I’m not real worried about our d. It’s not ideal. But the price to marginally upgrade is steep vs the benefit. Since we’re not adding an all star, our success will hinge on team defense whether we make a move or not.

Pens really just need Jesper Durable.

I'd rather have Jesper Yetmore-Cups

Would you trade Draft Pickson straight up for Yetmore-Cups?

What's concerning is that I don't know that the Penguins agree with this. Just from seeing how Sullivan has used him, I don't think they like him more than they like McCann or Simon. Or at least Sullivan doesn't like him as much as he likes the other 2.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Penguins pick Murray over Jarry, trade Jarry for futures and use Kahun as a trade chip with JJ and get a cheaper version of JJ for the bottom pair. The more I see Murray playing well, the less I see the Penguins trading him.

Gun to my head, I keep McCann out of the 3 but no reason why we shouldn't keep McCann and Kahun. I have always liked Simon and he is likely to be the cheapest, but one of them probably has to go.

I agree with @HandshakeLin mostly

I'd keep, in order:

Kahun
Simon (**** it, need somebody on L1)
McCann...

Any loss of forwards kinda sucks.

I love McCann but he's gonna get paid the most and maybe fits the least.

He's great to keep around as the resident backup 2C given 87/71s constant injury issues during the Regular Season...but you know what? Jake Guentzel showed me that he can be a good 2C in this league during those couple games when both Sid & Geno were out.

So if we rolled (in case of Sid/Geno injury):

Zucker-Sid/Geno-Rust/Simon (obviously put Rust with Geno and Simon with Sid)
Kahun-Jake-Rust/Simon

I'd still feel pretty good about that. That's not even counting Poulin.

I hope they don't trade either, but trading Jarry would be absolutely criminal, IMO. His elite stickhandling is that extra edge that really sets him apart and we saw how useful it is in last night's game. Plus, I've heard rumors of him getting a Vezina nod (which would make him less cheap, sure), but I think it's indicative of how his potential is slightly higher than Murray's, which is already pretty damn high.

Either way, I think this team would survive trading one or the other, but again, I'd really like to not have it come down to that, if possible.

They NEED to just keep both for under or around $9mil.

Trading Murray just can't be sure that is a good idea or that he's actually bad. He may never be that 65 solid game kinda guy, but he's actually not trash. Despite what I might have said at various times lol.

Trading Jarry--barring an epic implosion of performance this year/playoffs--would be worthy of boycotting the team for half a season. They would need such a clear cut home run of a player coming in to even get close to justifying that. No one saw THIS year coming, but if he's put it together and this is what he can bring, you don't toss that.

Keep in mind, goalies tend to bring jack all in trades. Trading a tendy is not the way the org should be looking to get picks back.

The problem is they have to trade one of them with the acquisition of Zucker, unless I'm way too high on my RFAs, and I just really struggle to see them trading Murray if he's playing well. Teams just don't do that. Look at what happened with the Capitals a few years back, they didn't trade Holtby because of the emergence of Grubauer, they moved Grubauer. If Murray wasn't playing well, that's one thing, but I just can't see it if he's playing well. Teams just usually don't trade their starting goalies and run with backups playing great unless their starter is playing badly or their starter is a pending UFA.

This isn't even saying what I want them to do, it's just me saying what I think they're going to do. Trading Murray is the objectively better decision IMO, I just can't see them doing it if he's playing well. The one situation that would change my mind is if the Penguins end up in a Dougie Hamilton in Boston situation with him, where he's going to get offer-sheeted so they'll just trade him at the draft for what his compensation would be.

But their backups are usually not playing at an elite level, no? That has to change some of the questions, as well.

Like if Jarry really is getting serious mentions for the Vezina in his rookie season, wouldn't that raise his star in the organization as well?

You can get a mil and a quarter from moving Desmith instead?

I don't think they'd do it for the return, but for the cap space, as Emp mentions. But I think there are work-arounds for that, especially if we can promote the WB/S kids and get rid of Schultz (who's pretty much as good as gone anyway) and Bjugs, which should alleviate a bit of the up-coming goalie cap hit.

Grubauer in 2017-2018 had a .923 save% in 35 games, after having a .926 save% in 24 games the previous year. I think he's the closest comparison to Jarry that you can come up with.

But I edited something into that post, I can see a situation arise where Murray is at threat of getting an offer-sheet the Penguins just can't match, so they'd trade him for a little bit more than what his offer-sheet compensation would be. That's what happened with Hamilton in Boston. His offer-sheet compensation is probably a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, so I could see a team with multiple firsts easily offering that at the draft this year.

Based on injury and consistency, going Murray-Desmith is a riiiiisk.

If we're trying to maximize cap WHILE being risky, I save like 4mil going Jarry-Desmith which is extremely riiiiisky, too.

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[HandshakeLine]

In conclusion, I'd like to say goaltending is a land of contrasts. And furthermoe,

 

[Empoleon8771]

Bringing the discussion part of my last post about the goalies in here.

I can see a situation arise where Murray is at threat of getting an offer-sheet the Penguins just can't match, so they'd trade him for a little bit more than what his offer-sheet compensation would be. That's what happened with Hamilton in Boston. His offer-sheet compensation is probably a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, so I could see a team with multiple 1sts or 2nds easily offering that at the draft this year. Ottawa makes a lot of sense for that, they have 2 high 1sts and 3 2nds (1 high, 2 lower), so while I don't think they'll get either one of the high 1sts, getting all 3 2nds isn't crazy to suggest.

 

[Peat]

Reposting from other thread -

I don't think they can keep both. Not without it hurting elsewhere. I'm not sure they should try. Right now its fine and dandy but you go into next season with goaltenders who've done everything needed to justify a starting berth and can't both have one, particularly with a fight to the death over who stays looming thanks the expansion draft, and maybe that's a situation that poisons things. It's not like one of them and DeSmith isn't a decent goaltending combo. I love the ultimate depth but its added value over one of them and DeSmith probably isn't gigantic.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Bringing the discussion part of my last post about the goalies in here.

I can see a situation arise where Murray is at threat of getting an offer-sheet the Penguins just can't match, so they'd trade him for a little bit more than what his offer-sheet compensation would be. That's what happened with Hamilton in Boston. His offer-sheet compensation is probably a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, so I could see a team with multiple 1sts or 2nds easily offering that at the draft this year. Ottawa makes a lot of sense for that, they have 2 high 1sts and 3 2nds (1 high, 2 lower), so while I don't think they'll get either one of the high 1sts, getting all 3 2nds isn't crazy to suggest.

I'd agree that it's a particular danger this time around, just because of the timing of it all. I hadn't really even thought of that, (especially since actually sending the offer sheets seem pretty rare these days), but it's definitely a real possibility.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Reposting from other thread -

I don't think they can keep both. Not without it hurting elsewhere. I'm not sure they should try. Right now its fine and dandy but you go into next season with goaltenders who've done everything needed to justify a starting berth and can't both have one, particularly with a fight to the death over who stays looming thanks the expansion draft, and maybe that's a situation that poisons things. It's not like one of them and DeSmith isn't a decent goaltending combo. I love the ultimate depth but its added value over one of them and DeSmith probably isn't gigantic.

For sure. And no matter how it turns out, I think one side of this board is going to be on suicide watch. I hope it's not my side.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Bringing the discussion part of my last post about the goalies in here.

I can see a situation arise where Murray is at threat of getting an offer-sheet the Penguins just can't match, so they'd trade him for a little bit more than what his offer-sheet compensation would be. That's what happened with Hamilton in Boston. His offer-sheet compensation is probably a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, so I could see a team with multiple 1sts or 2nds easily offering that at the draft this year. Ottawa makes a lot of sense for that, they have 2 high 1sts and 3 2nds (1 high, 2 lower), so while I don't think they'll get either one of the high 1sts, getting all 3 2nds isn't crazy to suggest.

I'd agree that it's a particular danger this time around, just because of the timing of it all. I hadn't really even thought of that, (especially since actually sending the offer sheets seem pretty rare these days), but it's definitely a real possibility.

What happens when Team A offer-sheets Murray and Team B offer-sheets Jarry?


Posting here for reference:

 

[Peat]

For sure. And no matter how it turns out, I think one side of this board is going to be on suicide watch. I hope it's not my side.

For me it's pretty close to a win-win situation. I like both. I lean towards cheapness and less injury history, and suspect the org will unless Murray gives them another cup, but I'm pretty happy with whoever stays and am beginning to be mildly optimistic about trade return for either.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

My preference in keeping McCann, Kahun, and Simon goes in that exact order. Though, I suspect the Pens order is actually Simon, McCann, Kahun.

Ninja edit:

Ottawa makes a lot of sense for that, they have 2 high 1sts and 3 2nds (1 high, 2 lower), so while I don't think they'll get either one of the high 1sts, getting all 3 2nds isn't crazy to suggest.

The picks given up due to offer-sheets would be in the 2021 draft.

 

[HandshakeLine]

What happens when Team A offer-sheets Murray and Team B offer-sheets Jarry?


Posting here for reference:

The obvious way to head that off would be to sign Jarry first (hopefully for a cheaper deal), then try to resign Murray, given that the offer sheet compensation for Jarry would be so minimal.

 

[ChaosAgent]

@Empoleon8771 : the Penguins are not losing Jarry this offseason. Jarry has like a 90-95% chance of being back next year. The question is Murray and whether the Penguins can try to bring the entire skating band back together (minus Bjugstad and Schultz) and keep him. Or if they should. I do like the idea of having 2 very good goalies as it really protects us from that position's volatility next year.

I ultimately see Jared McCann being traded for a late first round pick to make the cap work and Murray signing a 1-year, $7.5M deal or something to get him to UFA.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

The obvious way to head that off would be to sign Jarry first (hopefully for a cheaper deal), then try to resign Murray, given that the offer sheet compensation for Jarry would be so minimal.

Imagine losing Jarry for a 2021 2nd rounder.

 

[Peat]

Re McCann vs Simon vs Kahun... honestly not sure right now.

I think McCann has the most tools and versatility, and that's a big deal, but he's inconsistent in terms of putting it together. Already said I wouldn't mind exploring the idea you can sell him high i.e. as a 2C, but if you can't, do I want to lose him? Not so much.

I think Kahun has the highest ceiling, and his skillset is maybe the one we need most, but I kinda want to see him bring the thunder repeatedly high up the line up before I'd prioritise him.

And Simon... is probably the worst, but if he's the cheapest and that fit with Sid's looking strong at the end of the year? That's hard to give up.

@Empoleon8771 : the Penguins are not losing Jarry this offseason. Jarry has like a 90-95% chance of being back next year. The question is Murray and whether the Penguins can try to bring the entire skating band back together (minus Bjugstad and Schultz) and keep him. Or if they should. I do like the idea of having 2 very good goalies as it really protects us from that position's volatility next year.

I ultimately see Jared McCann being traded for a late first round pick to make the cap work and Murray signing a 1-year, $7.5M deal or something to get him to UFA.

Man I would hate that asset management. Bleeds value and doesn't really move the needle much in terms of pursuing a cup next season.

 

[EightyOne]

McCann is more important to the third line center

Kahun and his style is more important to the team

Simon is more important to Sid

Jarry is more important to the salary cap

Do with that, what you will...

 

[Empoleon8771]

The picks given up due to offer-sheets would be in the 2021 draft.

No, that would be a situation like Hamilton where Murray gets traded at the 2020 draft. Hamilton was traded for IIRC a 1st and 2 2nds at the 2015 draft, that would be the same kind of situation with Murray. They'd trade Murray for something similar to what his offersheet compensation would be and then give Jarry an extension, which means Jarry wouldn't be at an offersheet risk at that point.

@Empoleon8771 : the Penguins are not losing Jarry this offseason. Jarry has like a 90-95% chance of being back next year. The question is Murray and whether the Penguins can try to bring the entire skating band back together (minus Bjugstad and Schultz) and keep him. Or if they should. I do like the idea of having 2 very good goalies as it really protects us from that position's volatility next year.

I ultimately see Jared McCann being traded for a late first round pick to make the cap work and Murray signing a 1-year, $7.5M deal or something to get him to UFA.

There's really not much of a basis to claim the chances of moving Jarry are that low. Situations like the Penguins current goalie situation happen with other teams, and a majority of the time the backup gets traded.

The chances of moving Jarry are very real, because teams don't usually trade their starting goalies who are playing well and teams don't usually push aside their starting goalies for their backup. It does happen, with Andersen and Gibson in Anaheim for example, but it's much more common for the backups to get traded.

 

[Flying Dego]

Imagine losing Jarry for a 2021 2nd rounder.

A team could offersheet TJ 4.2M and only pay a 2nd...JR needs to try and lock him down...if he is a Vezina finalist he'll be even more expensive. I doubt he's gonna be cheap by any stretch.

When's the last time we had a goalie this close to goalie of the year? I don't think Fleury ever was and MM hasn't been healthy or consistent enough to do it yet.

 

[chethejet]

Murray will be moved if the AAV is just to much. Jarry, DeSmith is a good goal tending situation and Murray brings back picks lost for Zucker. McCann has the shot that Kahun and Simon lack and his the speed to be very good. Kahun is talented and will fetch a high number 2 since Zucker and Jake are the top 6 LW. Top 6 is probably set for next year and you still have TB, Tanev, Horny, Bjugstad and Reese. Add Lafferty and Angelo and that is the plan.

 

[ChaosAgent]

There's really not much of a basis to claim the chances of moving Jarry are that low. Situations like the Penguins current goalie situation happen with other teams, and a majority of the time the backup gets traded.

The chances of moving Jarry are very real, because teams don't usually trade their starting goalies who are playing well and teams don't usually push aside their starting goalies for their backup. It does happen, with Andersen and Gibson in Anaheim for example, but it's much more common for the backups to get traded.

Jarry isn't the backup. He's the platoon starter having a better season and he will be cheaper.

I get that you're a Murray guy but it'd be ludicrous to move the cheaper guy to keep the more expensive guy if they are equal from a performance standpoint. Which I think they definitively are.

 

[ColePens]

Man nothing is definitive. Let's just let it play out and see. It's fun to guess. I think JR will check the price. If it's astronomical and they won't budge, so be it. It's business.

 

[Peat]

Jarry isn't the backup. He's the platoon starter having a better season and he will be cheaper.

Is this definitely actually true from the team's perspective?

 

[ChaosAgent]

Is this definitely actually true from the team's perspective?

Jarry has 11 starts in January-February.
Murray has 8 starts in January-February.

I do think Murray gets first crack at the playoffs because of experience but that's a tiny tiebreaker separating them.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jarry's not going to get to July 1st while still being an offersheet risk. JR is most likely going to have the goalie situation sorted out by the draft, he's either going to set it up so he can keep both of them or he'll move one of them. I think it's possible to keep both goalies, but it would just be really dumb to do so. I think there is an argument there for them trading either Murray (higher return, higher cap hit) or Jarry (less proven, teams usually trade him in this kind of situation), but the negatives of keeping both outweigh the positives fairly clearly.

Based on past trades, I think you'd get back either a borderline mid/high 1st (Schneider trade) or a late 1st and 2nd (Andersen trade) for Murray, while you're probably only getting a late 1st (Jones trade) or 2 2nds (Bernier trade, but a young NHLer instead of a 2nd) for Jarry. Either one would help restock the pool and set them up to add again in 2021 extremely well.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

No, that would be a situation like Hamilton where Murray gets traded at the 2020 draft.

Yep, missed that part of your post. I'd rather have 2020 draft picks as opposed to 2021 ones.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Man I would hate that asset management. Bleeds value and doesn't really move the needle much in terms of pursuing a cup next season.

Not really. You get a first for McCann and that player/pick becomes currency down the line. Like Addison was.

Instead of giving him 4/$16M.

It's not ideal asset management on the goalies but I am leaning towards keeping both. There's a lot of volatility in the position and so having 2 is better than having one. But obviously the expansion draft looms in 2021.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Man, I’d love to keep both goalies.