Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salad Cap Thread: Craving Top 6 (Buffalo) Wings and More

[Empoleon8771]

These are all assumptions because we don't have the data to back any of it up. Don't get why you're being pissy about it?

Now, to the bolded. Please show recent work that affirms this, because, boy howdy, that one pretty good season is doing a lot of lifting for him here.

If the question is: has Pettersson recorded a better season before than those three, the answer is yes.

But, as you know and as you pointed out in the goaltending thread, players do have great seasons and then decline, often permanently. So, why is Pettersson guaranteed to do better there, especially since we have no recent evidence of him being superior? I mean, if it's fair to dog on Jarry for having only one previously good season and then having a slow start to this one, what do we do with Pettersson, who's playing awful while the rest of the team is coming together? My point is simply that, while Pettersson has had moments of better play in previous seasons, we're not seeing that now. So, why are we assuming that he's better at the moment?

I've always hated this argument because it's such an empty argument. The argument just stems down to "we haven't done exactly what I said, therefore what I said isn't wrong". It's a non-sequitor argument.

In terms of the underlined, it's not "one good season" for Pettersson. Pettersson gave perfectly strong results in that kind of usage last year as well. The sample size for Pettersson being at least a solid 2nd pair LD is a lot bigger of a sample size than Pettersson being terrible.

 

[molon labe]

And the team shouldn't be looking to trade already young players because of people overreacting to a bad 10 game sample size.

This team needs to continue adding young and talented players. Trading a young and talented player because people are overreacting isn't how you do that.

You overrate Pettersson the most on this board. Others underrate him, sure - but he's a 4M spare part right now.

Some folks obsess over getting younger - but that's not the only opinion around here to be taken as gospel. You can't say that by trading Pettersson we're getting away from what we're trying to do - when there hasn't been that emphasis since a few choice words from GMJR. A...and B shedding a single 24 year old bottom pairing (on this roster) defenseman doesn't mean you can't replace him with someone equally young, or younger. The bottom line is the kid makes more than he's worth. So yeah, maybe he grows into that contract - but we're not really in a position to sit on that. We have holes that need addressed and carrying a 4M insurance policy on LD is silly.

 

[HandshakeLine]

And if you wanna trade Pettersson, keeping him playing through his slump helps too. Right now he's not great, he's not bringing anything other players couldn't bring, but he's not killing the team - hasn't been on ice for a 5v5 goal in the last five - and every game gives him a chance to break through and find his higher standard of play.

In a merit based universe he maybe shouldn't be playing, but the NHL isn't just merit, it's asset value and all that stuff, and right now that's all pro-Pettersson.

edit: I'd add given the asset value Pettersson's going to be outta here before next season most times, and given how much people have soured on him going from easy use 3rd dman to actual challenges 2nd dman, the confidence in the other guys on the roster to replace what he has been to the org is a little high for me.



Last year he took a big step forwards in responsibilities and gave more or less the same numbers. For me, that's a win. The eyetest wasn't as kind to him, but that's maybe to be expected against better players. The results matter more.

And there's been a huge shift in those results. Which is the main issue.

To the bolded @Peat, I'm kind of hoping that's why he keeps getting put into the lineup, because putting Pettersson given how he's been playing lately is not doing this team any favors. And, to go back to our coaching thread, that's one of the things that I find frustrating about Sullivan. 24 year old players get healthy scratched all the time to get them playing better. We're not so comfortably in a playoff position that we can afford to ice experimental therapy groups for players.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So, this just a players you like thing, or what?

Pettersson was good in both 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Saying he sucks now and they should get rid of him is absolutely an overreaction to a small sample size.

 

[The Old Master]

Any sort of internal replacement for Pettersson on that 2nd pair role will very likely yield noticeably worse results than what Pettersson would normally be providing.
.

i would respectfully disagree.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I've always hated this argument because it's such an empty argument. The argument just stems down to "we haven't done exactly what I said, therefore what I said isn't wrong". It's a non-sequitor argument.

In terms of the underlined, it's not "one good season" for Pettersson. Pettersson gave perfectly strong results in that kind of usage last year as well. The sample size for Pettersson being at least a solid 2nd pair LD is a lot bigger of a sample size than Pettersson being terrible.

I don't know if I should be the one to break it to you then, that what you said there is not the definition of a non-sequitor fallacy.

I get the sample sizes are bigger, Emp. But stats don't predict the future, just the probability. And when evidence contradicts your predictions... well... But hey, go off and misread my point if it makes you feel better.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You overrate Pettersson the most on this board. Others underrate him, sure - but he's a 4M spare part right now.

Some folks obsess over getting younger - but that's not the only opinion around here to be taken as gospel. You can't say that by trading Pettersson we're getting away from what we're trying to do - when there hasn't been that emphasis since a few choice words from GMJR. A...and B shedding a single 24 year old bottom pairing (on this roster) defenseman doesn't mean you can't replace him with someone equally young, or younger. The bottom line is the kid makes more than he's worth. So yeah, maybe he grows into that contract - but we're not really in a position to sit on that. We have holes that need addressed and carrying a 4M insurance policy on LD is silly.

I literally called him "Olli Maatta who can skate" yesterday. I'm not overrating him, this board is just collectively braindead when it comes to Pettersson.

It's completely because people put huge expectations on him after his great 2018-2019 season, and when he didn't hit those (despite still being good), people over-corrected and decided he sucked.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Also, you never answered my question why having a young blue line is a A Good Thing. I'm honestly curious about that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't know if I should be the one to break it to you then, that what you said there is not the definition of a non-sequitor fallacy.

I get the sample sizes are bigger, Emp. But stats don't predict the future, just the probability. And when evidence contradicts your predictions... well... But hey, go off and misread my point if it makes you feel better.

Would you rather me call it an "appeal to ignorance"? Because it is absolutely a fallacy regardless of what kind of fallacy you want to attribute to it.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Would you rather me call it an "appeal to ignorance"? Because it is absolutely a fallacy regardless of what kind of fallacy you want to attribute to it.

I mean, if you want to be a pedant, you gotta get your terms right.

Moreover, it'd help if you address things in good faith instead of just pouting. I'm not trying to trick you like some GRE or LSAT logic problem-- I'm just trying to discuss this with you.

 

[molon labe]

I literally called him "Olli Maatta who can skate" yesterday. I'm not overrating him, this board is just collectively braindead when it comes to Pettersson.

It's completely because people put huge expectations on him after his great 2018-2019 season, and when he didn't hit those (despite still being good), people over-corrected and decided he sucked.

Money comes with criticism. People say it with goalies all the time... Gardiner was recently waived - we're headed in that direction on our blueline. There's a significant log jam.

3.2M dead cap for Bjugs and JJ. 5.5M to an injured Zucker who was....average. 3M to McCann who was...less than average. and over a mil on a terrible 4C. We shouldn't carry 4M price tags on all 3 LD - we have a mundane Power Play with no net front (which hurts beyond the power play), no grit/physicality outside of Tanev who's the same size as Sheary albeit much tougher- and very, very spotty scoring outside of the top 6 (though they've been quite great recently). I can say it's unfair to say MP is [insert insult], but he's absolutely a detriment to the team at 4M. At this point I'd rather have Matheson as at least he's somewhat physical and can skate/score. Dumo is without question 8 full steps ahead of MP on both ends of the ice...so yeah - maybe POJ isn't as good but on the bottom pair who cares. He costs less than a fourth.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, if you want to be a pedant, you gotta get your terms right.

Moreover, it'd help if you address things in good faith instead of just pouting. I'm not trying to trick you like some GRE or LSAT logic problem-- I'm just trying to discuss this with you.

The issue is that the discussion is impossible to do because we can't tell the future. All we can do is evaluate what Pettersson has done so far, which was 1 great season, 1 good season and a current 15 or so bad game run. No one can tell the future with what he's going to do, but I put a lot more faith in a ~130 game sample size than I put in a ~15 game sample size. This isn't a situation like Jarry, where he's been so hot and cold over his career that there were legitimate reasons to question who the real Jarry was. Pettersson has been good for far longer than he hasn't been good.

Could Pettersson just suck now? Yeah, but based on how many times players that sucked suddenly didn't suck anymore, I'm willing to bet that Pettersson will be the same. Look at how Dumoulin was treated on here, people were ready to Old Yeller him at the start of the year and now people are saying he's awesome again.

Also, you never answered my question why having a young blue line is a A Good Thing. I'm honestly curious about that.

For the same reason it's better to have a young forward group: young players are (in general) in better shape than old players. I don't see why that would apply to forwards but not apply to defenseman, teams should be prioritizing young players of all positions.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Been a while since the Pens were in basically zero trade rumors - TDL or not.

Has been a boring year for hockey moves.

Also feels good knowing that now the GM won't do anything stupid!!

 

[Empoleon8771]

Money comes with criticism. People say it with goalies all the time... Gardiner was recently waived - we're headed in that direction on our blueline. There's a significant log jam.

3.2M dead cap for Bjugs and JJ. 5.5M to an injured Zucker who was....average. 3M to McCann who was...less than average. and over a mil on a terrible 4C. We shouldn't carry 4M price tags on all 3 LD - we have a mundane Power Play with no net front (which hurts beyond the power play), no grit/physicality outside of Tanev who's the same size as Sheary albeit much tougher- and very, very spotty scoring outside of the top 6 (though they've been quite great recently). I can say it's unfair to say MP is [insert insult], but he's absolutely a detriment to the team at 4M. At this point I'd rather have Matheson as at least he's somewhat physical and can skate/score. Dumo is without question 8 full steps ahead of MP on both ends of the ice...so yeah - maybe POJ isn't as good but on the bottom pair who cares. He costs less than a fourth.

Saying "there's a significant log jam, so we're going to have to move Pettersson" is a lot different than saying "Pettersson sucks ass and he doesn't offer anything good" like people in here are saying. I don't have a problem with saying they'll have to trade Pettersson because most people can look at this roster and reasonably conclude that. That's JR's fault for bringing in Matheson.

Pettersson likely has to be the casualty on defense, because Dumoulin is too good to trade (unless you've decided you're rebuilding instead of contending), Matheson is untradeable and you need to clear out an expensive LD contract. But that doesn't mean Pettersson sucks or he can be replaced with a waiver caliber guy like Friedman.

 

[SEALBound]

He just didn't work out there. Hell, subtract that blatant mismatch and its 8 points in 14 on a fairly ordinary playoff team... which you'd kinda feel okay about, right? Particularly with the most recent sample being 5 in 4. It's not like Staal can't play post-season, just he hasn't recently, so the most recent sample being the best should erase a lot of that.

I don't particularly want him, but the post-season record doesn't look too scary to me.

Maybe. It's a still a concern. Tough to judge playoff performance when he spent 21 to 31 not in the playoffs. My HOPE would be you pair him with Zucker and ERod/Someone and he and Zucker click from their old Minnesota days.

I'm going to post this here...

I still haven't seen a consistent defensive effort by this team, even during a win streak, that defensive game is such a joke. Today was a good example of it, I still think I would move Pettersson if not for a top 9 winger, maybe a physical LD. Maybe we see if Billy G has another favour he owes us.

I'd happily do Ian Cole + Ryan Hartman for Marcus Pettersson and then see how that shakes out.

Hartman isn't a "sexy" name to a lot of wankers here, but he has what this team is severely lacking, heart. Cole does too, no not the tight jeans, leopard loafer wearing @ColePens , Ian Cole the shot blocking machine that likes to clear the crease and use his size that isn't a plug. I'd happily add both names to this team to dump Marcus Bland AF Pettersson.

I'd hopefully want to get the Wild's 2nd or at least the Penguins 3rd back.

Edit: Hartman would slot in fine on the 3rd line and also be a thorn on the forecheck with decent hands with Geno and Kapanen. But he's a bloke that has gone after Reaves for nailing Koivu and has gone after Dillon and actually held his own very well. He's tough as nails and lacks just the right amount of hockey IQ to be fearless with protecting his mates.

Guentzel, Crosby, Rust
O'Connor, Malkin, Kapanen
Hartman, Blueger, Tanev
Aston-Reese, Cousins, Sceviour - It needs to happen already damn it.
Rodrigues

Dumoulin, Letang
Matheson, Marino
Cole, Ceci

Hartman and Cole would be strong additions, and yeah I still want Cousins on that 4th line. Hartman & Cousins are familiar to Hextall. But Hartman is just the SOB type that this team lacks and same for Cousins and his ability to just be a shift disturber. Cole is just stability, in a lower role at this stage in his career, he's exactly what you want on the 3rd pairing.

I am on board in some of those things but not all. Last year they brought in 3 new guys and it changed a lot of chemistry. It was too much. I think adding ONE person to bolster the bottom 6 is sufficient. This is a "it is what it is, its up to you guys" playoff roster this year. They have to make due with what they have and quite honestly, if everyone plays like they are capable of, the talent is there. So I'm not sure I support bringing in 3 guys. A straight swap of Petts and Cole, sure. Petts for Hartman? Yes. Cousins+ for Petts/Scev/etc, sure. All three, no.

Been a while since the Pens were in basically zero trade rumors - TDL or not.

Has been a boring year for hockey moves.

Just remember, a lot of posters here wanted that. They didn't like JR's trade happy styles.

To be the devil's advocate here, what exactly is Pettersson bringing to the roster since he came back?

I don't think we should trade him, necessarily, but I do think they should sit his ass in the press box until he remembers what his job is.

He hasn't brought much since coming back. This is has happened to several Penguin players over the years where they come back from injury and they stink. It happens. We are just light on whipping boys for there's laser focus on him. It's not hard to understand why he's here though. Coaches and GMs have a memory longer than a goldfish.

I'd also pretty heavily contest the idea that POJ can replace Pettersson as well. POJ had an insane start in the NHL, but his on ice results quickly went to shit and he was getting absolutely overworked by the end of his time in the NHL. He's someone that is still a very raw talent and needs to be eased into the NHL in a bottom pair role, ideally with someone like Ceci. He's not a guy that can replace Pettersson today, and unless Matheson magically starts being a capable LD for Marino, they're not going to have a legitimate 2nd pair LD for Marino.

Pettersson may not be an ideal partner for Marino and they may have to trade him just because they can't trade Matheson, but trading him is most likely not going to yield pretty results for the Penguins on defense. Either Matheson will get exposed while being misused with Marino (most likely outcome) or you're going to be throwing a raw POJ into the fire with Marino.

I think I've liked Petts-Marino, Matheson-Ceci pairings the best recently out of all the combos we can make. Matheson is certainly a wildcard for us at the moment. You can stick him on the 2nd pair with Marino and I think there would be decent justification for doing so. We know the downfalls though but I think it's a risk-benefit analysis where you hope that the positives will outweigh the negatives. I don't see capable pairings that reduce "risk" to zero and quite frankly, that's not what we need. We need offensive support from the blue line so I think I'd rather see Matheson try to rock and roll with the top 6 lines over being a defensive stalwart pairing that we know they are not. I want Daley from 2016, not Cole from 2016 for Matheson. And quite frankly, I think it depends more on Marino picking up his game than anything. I think we are getting what we get with Matheson at the moment. I don't see another level. He's risen to the level I hoped he would (and that was reasonably expectable). Marino has more to give, we all know that.

Remember last year when the Pens were sitting pretty, made some unnecessary trades at the deadline, then went 3-7-0 in their last 10 before the break, and then had one of the more embarrassing playoff exits in the Crosby-Malkin era? Let's try to avoid making drastic changes that force the coaching staff and players to figure it out in 14 games before the playoffs. I have low enough expectations for the coaching staff. We don't need to add more to their plate.

Petts for a bottom 6 LW or C and a pick is what I'd be looking for. I'll throw this out there again. Petts for Ryan/Glendening and 3rd/2nd.

This is why I am advocating for a single bottom 6 pickup. Ideally a middle 6 guy. We need to bolster the 4th line. It's been decent and not a sore point lately but I think we all know we can roll to the Finals with that as a 4th line. We need help to transform that into a 3B line. McCann and Zucker coming back will go a long way to be honest but we need an additional 4C to push Jankowski out. I would be good with the Petts for Ryan and a 3rd. I don't thin Glendening moves the needle enough to justify the trade. Maybe after the season or maybe we use the 2nd on something else or it's a 3 way or...I would be underwhelmed if Glendening+2nd is our deadline move.

So you're really going to argue that the Penguins do not need to become younger? Fascinating.

This board has had an issue with Pettersson for years. Pettersson being traded may make some sense, but the amount of shit he gets from fans here is comical. It's nothing but fans on here over-correcting to the asinine expectations they put on him after his great 2018-2019 season.

No whipping boy. Someone had to fill the hole. Once a player has a iffy game, it's a group think mentality until...well...forever. Most posters here wait for the more knowledgable posters to post their +/- after a game and then go "Hey, yeah! THAT!" or in the absence of that, they reguritate the latest flavor of the week post. I bet most can't tell you why they don't like Pettersson outside of what they read other posters post.

That said, Pettersson makes the most sense to trade at the moment from a cap standpoint. Given Rudwedel, Riikola, Freidman, POJ, and Ceci...we can afford to trade Pettersson to bolster other positions. I was for keeping Petts over Dumo because Dumo's injury history and play had me concerned and I wanted to Whitney him before it was too late. Now that is shifting as Dumo looks like he's back to normal and that is a tremendous help for us. So look at our $4mil dmen...yeah, Petts is the odd man out for a variety of reasons. Towards the bottom of my list is current play though.

As far as age, I think we've done a tremendous job at getting younger. I gotta tip my hat to JR, he accomplished exactly what we needed to do - get younger, faster, and more skilled. He did that. Adding Freidman helps as well. That said, I think we could accommodate an older player just fine. I loathed Marleau last year and that's not what I want this year but I don't think I would argue if they went after a 36yo Staal for example. I think we can take on a 30+ yo player if he can help the lineup. I think a guy like Staal, Ryan, Perreault, etc could work well here.

One name that "may" be out there that I've always liked is Lehkonen. Not an old guy but currently 4th line wing for Montreal and with Chabot out, they could use a dman. Petts for Lehkonen could be the type of swap that really bolsters the lineup. Would set up the defense to be a bit better. And I think Lehkonen could play on the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th line.

Jake-Sid-Rust
Lehkonen-Malkin-Kapanen
BART
Scev-ERod-Angello

Or when healthy:

Jake-Sid-Rust
Zucker-Malkin-Kapanen
BART
Lehkonen-McCann-XXX

I think he offers a lot of speed and skill that we are missing in the bottom 6.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The issue is that the discussion is impossible to do because we can't tell the future. All we can do is evaluate what Pettersson has done so far, which was 1 great season, 1 good season and a current 15 or so bad game run. No one can tell the future with what he's going to do, but I put a lot more faith in a ~130 game sample size than I put in a ~15 game sample size. This isn't a situation like Jarry, where he's been so hot and cold over his career that there were legitimate reasons to question who the real Jarry was. Pettersson has been good for far longer than he hasn't been good.

Which would be fine if my point was "Will Pettersson suck" but it wasn't. You're reading someone else's post, I think. My question was simply "why keep Pettersson in the lineup at the moment because he's playing badly?" And you said, (I'm paraphrasing, so let me know if you'd like to correct the record): "Pettersson is better than all of those players we haven't tried there", which appears close, but isn't all that germane to the question I asked.

Could Pettersson just suck now? Yeah, but based on how many times players that sucked suddenly didn't suck anymore, I'm willing to bet that Pettersson will be the same. Look at how Dumoulin was treated on here, people were ready to Old Yeller him at the start of the year and now people are saying he's awesome again.

I mean, didn't he just suck last night? For what it's worth, I'm not talking about future career evaluations, I'm talking about who sits when the blueline is healthy. Is Pettersson playing well enough right now to justify a roster spot? Yes or no?

For the same reason it's better to have a young forward group: young players are (in general) in better shape than old players. I don't see why that would apply to forwards but not apply to defenseman, teams should be prioritizing young players of all positions.

But conditioning isn't all of what makes a defenseman good, no? Otherwise we'd be seeing Norris winners as predominantly younger players, like we see with scoring. The positional and situational smarts that are the hallmark of good defensemen aren't really present when they're young unless they're elite freaks of nature.

 

[Tender Rip]

And the team shouldn't be looking to trade already young players because of people overreacting to a bad 10 game sample size.

Well, I never thought much of Petts. At his best he was a product of Schultz and a Marino.
The good thing about him - when good - is his Dumo-lite solidity on a team that needs some dependable defense first.
It stops being funny when a player who cannot create by himself stops being cheap and then stops being dependable.

But he is 24 and should rebound, so should have value whereas Matheson is probably untradeable and in any case brings a dimension this team doesn’t otherwise have (an LD that is dynamic).

What you seemingly fail to grasp is that we are win now, and being young and competent is not a qualification, as competence is non-negotiable. It’s being CHEAP and competent that brings the rewards. Competent youth is essential because usually it means you aren’t being paid yet.

Blue is awesome for us because he is among the best bottom 6 shutdown C’s in the league, but enormously more so because he is so at close to league minimum. At 3.5 million next year or something... there will be different requirements/expectations.

 

[Peat]

To the bolded @Peat, I'm kind of hoping that's why he keeps getting put into the lineup, because putting Pettersson given how he's been playing lately is not doing this team any favors. And, to go back to our coaching thread, that's one of the things that I find frustrating about Sullivan. 24 year old players get healthy scratched all the time to get them playing better. We're not so comfortably in a playoff position that we can afford to ice experimental therapy groups for players.

Not when they start making 4m they don't. That's just how the NHL works, insofar as I've noticed, with Sully being no different and sometimes a little better as well as maybe sometimes being a little worse. It looks like coaches who scratch players who make lots of money aren't being applauded for their moral bravery, they're being asked why are they tanking asset value.

The amount Pettersson would have to suck for that to change is huge. And when you're on ice for 7-2 over your last 10 games, then, even with a few bad penalties and some noticeable bad play, you're not sucking that much.

 

[pistolpete11]

The more I think about it, the more I want Petts for Glendening+2nd.

Turning a 31-year-0ld UFA 4C and a 2nd (which they have 3 of BTW) into a 24-year-old middle pair defenseman who's locked up would be quite the haul for the Wings IMO. They have the cap space, roster space, and ED space to protect him. He's young enough and signed for long enough for their prospects that are about to hit and also experienced enough to be leaned on for 18-20 min a night. Other than being overly negative about Petts because you think he's soff, I don't know why the Wings turn that down.

Glendening had a terrible year last year, but he's bounced back nicely this year, on pace for 27 points over 82 games. He eats dZS to the tune of 70% which is what Sully asks of his bottom 6. He's somehow only a -2 on that shit team despite the tough dZS. He's relatively physical, a decent skater, and is a good RH faceoff guy. His role is clear so there's no worry whether Sullivan would figure it out. He walks at the end of the year if it doesn't work out and the Pens have a bunch of cap space freed up. Getting a 2nd also helps restock the futures, although admittedly, barely puts a dent into it with how bare things are.

Guentzel - Crosby - Rust
Zucker/McCann - Malkin - Kap
McCann/Zucker - Blueger - Tanev
ZAR - Glendening - Erod/Sceviour/Angello/whoever

Dumo - Letang
Matheson - Marino
Riikola - Ceci
Freidman - Ruh

Is it "Lookout NHL"? Maybe not, but when the biggest question marks you have are 3LD and 4RW, I think you're doing pretty well.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Not when they start making 4m they don't. That's just how the NHL works, insofar as I've noticed, with Sully being no different and sometimes a little better as well as maybe sometimes being a little worse. It looks like coaches who scratch players who make lots of money aren't being applauded for their moral bravery, they're being asked why are they tanking asset value.

The amount Pettersson would have to suck for that to change is huge. And when you're on ice for 7-2 over your last 10 games, then, even with a few bad penalties and some noticeable bad play, you're not sucking that much.

Oh, I'm cynical enough about how coaches work to get that, my man. I mean, we did survive the JJ experiment. But that's also why I find it difficult to buy these absolutes about players on the roster who don't get played-- we simply don't know if Friedman or Riikola or whoever is a decent 3rd pairing guy because Sully's not going to bench the 4+ million cap hit to find out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Which would be fine if my point was "Will Pettersson suck" but it wasn't. You're reading someone else's post, I think. My question was simply "why keep Pettersson in the lineup at the moment because he's playing badly?" And you said, (I'm paraphrasing, so let me know if you'd like to correct the record): "Pettersson is better than all of those players we haven't tried there", which is not at all germane to the question I asked.

I mean, didn't he just suck last night? For what it's worth, I'm not talking about future career evaluations, I'm talking about who sits when the blueline is healthy. Is Pettersson playing well enough right now to justify a roster spot? Yes or no?

The issue is I'd rather play a struggling good player over a known mediocre player in hopes that the struggling good player stops struggling. It's not like Riikola or Friedman have these massive track records that suggest they'd be effective NHLers. It's the same reason I wouldn't scratch McCann for Lafferty if McCann was playing badly. I bring up that example because Sullivan did exactly that last year.

But conditioning isn't all of what makes a defenseman good, no? Otherwise we'd be seeing Norris winners as predominantly younger players, like we see with scoring. The positional and situational smarts that are the hallmark of good defensemen aren't really present when they're young unless they're elite freaks of nature.

Idk it can certainly make defensemen bad. Look at what happened to guys like Scuderi, Orpik, Staal and whatnot. If you can't skate at a NHL level today, it doesn't matter how much positional smarts and situation smarts you have.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Well, I never thought much of Petts. At his best he was a product of Schultz and a Marino.
The good thing about him - when good - is his Dumo-lite solidity on a team that needs some dependable defense first.
It stops being funny when a player who cannot create by himself stops being cheap and then stops being dependable.

But he is 24 and should rebound, so should have value whereas Matheson is probably untradeable and in any case brings a dimension this team doesn’t otherwise have (an LD that is dynamic).

What you seemingly fail to grasp is that we are win now, and being young and competent is not a qualification, as competence is non-negotiable. It’s being CHEAP and competent that brings the rewards. Competent youth is essential because usually it means you aren’t being paid yet.

Blue is awesome for us because he is among the best bottom 6 shutdown C’s in the league, but enormously more so because he is so at close to league minimum. At 3.5 million next year or something... there will be different requirements/expectations.

How was Pettersson ever a product of Schultz? Schultz was an absolute trainwreck in his last 2 years with the Penguins, and Pettersson didn't even play that much with him. Pettersson played pretty exclusively with Johnson and Gudbranson in 2018-2019 (and Schultz was out for a majority of that year and Marino was in college), which was his best year for the Penguins. He played with Schultz more in 2019-2020, but Schultz was heinously bad last year.

The "Pettersson was a product of Schultz and Marino" doesn't make sense when you consider how bad Schultz was and how Pettersson performed away from those two.

Yes, the Penguins are a win now team, but that doesn't mean they should scrap a good defenseman who's having a rough patch. Hell, that should go with any position. Unless you can make a clear upgrade by making a swap, making a swap doesn't make any sense. Dumping Pettersson so you can give POJ a spot is objectively a downgrade with where POJ is currently at. It could end up an upgrade, but it's not there yet.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The issue is I'd rather play a struggling good player over a known mediocre player in hopes that the struggling good player stops struggling. It's not like Riikola or Friedman have these massive track records that suggest they'd be effective NHLers. It's the same reason I wouldn't scratch McCann for Lafferty if McCann was playing badly. I bring up that example because Sullivan did exactly that last year.

But as @Peat and I are discussing, we don't have track records sometimes because the coaching staff has its biases and isn't always choosing the lineup based on merit. So, it's pretty hard to say what we have in Riikola or Freidman, except that they're relatively young, mobile, adequate for 3rd pairing or spot duty, and cheap.

The bigger problem for Pettersson, I think, is he's not really playing well enough to take that 2nd pairing away from Matheson long term, so that's the rub. Petts is probably going to be a better 2nd pairing guy than what we have below him on the chart the long run, sure. I'll buy that. But we're not talking about a 2nd pairing LD opening-- we're talking about the 3LD, which has different needs.

Idk it can certainly make defensemen bad. Look at what happened to guys like Scuderi, Orpik, Staal and whatnot. If you can't skate at a NHL level today, it doesn't matter how much positional smarts and situation smarts you have.

I mean, none of those guys were elite, or even from the contemporary NHL. I've always thought peak of most defensemen, especially guys who specialize in transition and skating, was 27 to say, 31-32, often into their mid-30s. Was Gonchar not elite when he was 31-35? I get that we can't let guys develop in the AHL until they're 26 now, but really, unless they're athletic freaks like Letang, it seems to take blueliners a few more years than other skaters to get to their peak.

 

[pistolpete11]

This is why I am advocating for a single bottom 6 pickup. Ideally a middle 6 guy. We need to bolster the 4th line. It's been decent and not a sore point lately but I think we all know we can roll to the Finals with that as a 4th line. We need help to transform that into a 3B line. McCann and Zucker coming back will go a long way to be honest but we need an additional 4C to push Jankowski out. I would be good with the Petts for Ryan and a 3rd. I don't thin Glendening moves the needle enough to justify the trade. Maybe after the season or maybe we use the 2nd on something else or it's a 3 way or...I would be underwhelmed if Glendening+2nd is our deadline move.

I think Glendening is exactly what they need for the reasons I posted above. If you want a 4C to replace Jank, just keep it simple and trade for a 4C. It's not the sexiest pickup, but it's realistic and fills a need without having to worry about whether the coach will figure it out or if he'd be fit and willing to play the role.

 

[Peat]

Oh, I'm cynical enough about how coaches work to get that, my man. I mean, we did survive the JJ experiment. But that's also why I find it difficult to buy these absolutes about players on the roster who don't get played-- we simply don't know if Friedman or Riikola or whoever is a decent 3rd pairing guy because Sully's not going to bench the 4+ million cap hit to find out.

Fair. Although I'd point out Pettersson's likely designation down the road is 2nd pairing dman - things are going strange and slightly bad if not most like - and I'd say the odds tilt towards Friedman and Riikola not being a guy who can do it. Could be wrong, but those are the odds. And...

I mean, didn't he just suck last night? For what it's worth, I'm not talking about future career evaluations, I'm talking about who sits when the blueline is healthy. Is Pettersson playing well enough right now to justify a roster spot? Yes or no?

... this sorta kinda looking down the road means I personally can't completely separate future evaluations from how I'd answer that question. I don't think you win cups by picking the guys solely to win today until you hit the playoffs. I think you need to build chemistry, build teams, which involves gambles on future evaluations.

The strongest version of this team involves a lot of Marino playing important minutes. Pettersson's shown the most ability to be the guy next to him. If I'm picking a team today, this is what I'm thinking about.

Maybe. It's a still a concern. Tough to judge playoff performance when he spent 21 to 31 not in the playoffs. My HOPE would be you pair him with Zucker and ERod/Someone and he and Zucker click from their old Minnesota days.

I am on board in some of those things but not all. Last year they brought in 3 new guys and it changed a lot of chemistry. It was too much. I think adding ONE person to bolster the bottom 6 is sufficient. This is a "it is what it is, its up to you guys" playoff roster this year. They have to make due with what they have and quite honestly, if everyone plays like they are capable of, the talent is there. So I'm not sure I support bringing in 3 guys. A straight swap of Petts and Cole, sure. Petts for Hartman? Yes. Cousins+ for Petts/Scev/etc, sure. All three, no.

I'd like to buy in one rival for McCann as Malkin's wing, and look at buying another guy for the 4th line if they can't sort it before the deadline. That's it. Agree that too much change is all too likely to backfire.

And while I do like the idea of having a guy Zucker's had past chemistry with, I think I'd look at Granlund instead, unless I'm very high on Staal as a potential Malkin wing.