Proposal: Pit - Wpg

[Keystone]

Just seems like a poor match. The Jets could possibly move a top 6 wing out to make room for some up and coming talent within the organization but that’s a discussion for the off season. The return would more likely target a C or RHD though.

 

[wetcoast]

Shit for the Jets

Guentzel isnt extending there.

Thry should give Ehlers 7.5M x 8 this summer

Ehlers is signed at 6 million for next season already and if I'm the Jets I wouldn't do that extension on him.

 

[Atoyot]

I think this is the issue with the discussion we are having. This is simply not true.

I think the main issue is your valuation of Guentzel as a rental. If you think that players like him on expiring contracts don't get traded at every deadline from non playoff teams then you're either not paying attention or you think way too highly of Guentzel.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think the main issue is your valuation of Guentzel as a rental. If you think that players like him on expiring contracts don't get traded at every deadline from non playoff teams then you're either not paying attention or you think way too highly of Guentzel.

I mean they don't. Horvat and Giroux are the closest. Giroux was extremely old compared to Jake and Horvat was kind of a one off compared to what Jake has done.

Give me another example.

 

[hamzarocks]

Ehlers is signed at 6 million for next season already and if I'm the Jets I wouldn't do that extension on him.

Why not hes a 60+ pt player despite weird usage.

I dont see why he cant be a 70 pt winger for most of that deal

 

[SEALBound]

I think the main issue is your valuation of Guentzel as a rental. If you think that players like him on expiring contracts don't get traded at every deadline from non playoff teams then you're either not paying attention or you think way too highly of Guentzel.

Yikes.

Not paying attention? You might wanna rethink that a bit. There are plenty of comparisons. An issue others may be having is coming to the realization that, while there are indeed several rentals traded each year, there aren't that many 40g, top-line wingers that are traded.

 

[Snowman]

Yikes.

Not paying attention? You might wanna rethink that a bit. There are plenty of comparisons. An issue others may be having is coming to the realization that, while there are indeed several rentals traded each year, there aren't that many 40g, top-line wingers that are traded.

How many times has Guentzel hit 40 goals? Looks like twice if you look at the NHL site and the last time was 3 seasons back. Are goals counted differently in Pittsburgh?

 

[wetcoast]

Why not hes a 60+ pt player despite weird usage.

I dont see why he cant be a 70 pt winger for most of that deal

I wouldn't give him that deal, his goal scoring has dried up a bit and he might reach 70 points one day but health is a concern as is his production in the playoffs.

 

[Gurglesons]

How many times has Guentzel hit 40 goals? Looks like twice if you look at the NHL site and the last time was 3 seasons back. Are goals counted differently in Pittsburgh?

I'm not going to defend the 40 goal thing because I didn't argue it.

But if we use the last 3 seasons as a barometer for production Jake is 24th in points in the league amongst that time. 6 players above him have moved teams (in their career).

Panarin
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Reinhart
Gaudreau
Miller

None of them were traded during the season.

Players like Jake are simply not moved in season. It's an extreme rarity for a player that produces like him to be available at a deadline especially when they are still in the age range where they are an effective player.

Using this math. Giroux was 48th in production the three years prior to being traded and finished 66th in scoring the year he was traded.

Jake is currently 29th in production in the league.

You can use Horvat, but he had nowhere near the history of production that Guentzel did.

We simply do not see talent like Guetnzel moved at the deadline at the age he is.

 

[Snowman]

I'm not going to defend the 40 goal thing because I didn't argue it.

But if we use the last 3 seasons as a barometer for production Jake is 24th in points in the league amongst that time. 6 players above him have moved teams (in their career).

Panarin
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Reinhart
Gaudreau
Miller

None of them were traded during the season.

Players like Jake are simply not moved in season. It's an extreme rarity for a player that produces like him to be available at a deadline especially when they are still in the age range where they are an effective player.

That's cool and all, but how many of them were traded as 3 or 4 month rentals?

You can't really extrapolate any information from those players that justify your ask.

If you're trying to trade him at the TDL to a playoff team you'll have to settle for futures most likely. Playoff teams don't trade comparable players with more term for a rental.

They add to their depth, they don't trade out key players.

 

[Gurglesons]

That's cool and all, but how many of them were traded as 3 or 4 month rentals?

You can't really extrapolate any information from those players that justify your ask.

If you're trying to trade him at the TDL to a playoff team you'll have to settle for futures most likely. Playoff teams don't trade comparable players with more term for a rental.

They add to their depth, they don't trade out key players.

You are missing the point.

Players like Jake aren't moved as rental. You are trying to extrapolate a return based on an asset we haven't seen moved in recent years.

We saw Florida move Owen Tippett. Ehlers is obviously a much better player, but that's why the Penguins aren't getting anything else in return in the proposed deal. I'm not sure the trade makes sense, but my point is more so that Guentzel is a unicorn in terms of his availability at the deadline.

Obviously Ehlers made his way back up to L1 on Saturday day night. That probably complicates this deal because it was made under the assumption that Bowness was going to continue to play the guy minimal minutes in comparison to a player like Jake.

 

[Atoyot]

I mean they don't. Horvat and Giroux are the closest. Giroux was extremely old compared to Jake and Horvat was kind of a one off compared to what Jake has done.

Give me another example.

St Louis, Iginla, Hall multiple times, Gaborik, Hossa. Age is irrelevant, he's a rental, being effective as a 29 year old for 3 months isn't somehow better than being as effective for 3 months as a 33 year old.

Ignoring any of that, a 3 month marginal at best upgrade on Ehlers isn't worth the big step back next season.

 

[Hunter368]

You are missing the point.

Players like Jake aren't moved as rental. You are trying to extrapolate a return based on an asset we haven't seen moved in recent years.

We saw Florida move Owen Tippett. Ehlers is obviously a much better player, but that's why the Penguins aren't getting anything else in return in the proposed deal. I'm not sure the trade makes sense, but my point is more so that Guentzel is a unicorn in terms of his availability at the deadline.

Obviously Ehlers made his way back up to L1 on Saturday day night. That probably complicates this deal because it was made under the assumption that Bowness was going to continue to play the guy minimal minutes in comparison to a player like Jake.

I would call Jake a very good winger who turns 30 years old before next season starts and is a UFA looking for a big retirement raise taking him well into his 30's.......not sure if I would call him a unicorn. I would say if Jake was 5 years younger then I would say he's more of a unicorn, but if he was 5 years younger the Pens likely wouldn't be trading him.

Again the point is, the Jets want to add to the CURRENT roster not take away from it while also adding (& adding huge risk of Jake bolting to UFA or giving his agent further leverage to get max level deal from the Jets). If Jake can't be had (not even sure the Jets have interest, seen no rumors on it) for futures, then he likely isn't a option this TDL and the Jets might kick his tires this summer if he's unsigned.

 

[Gurglesons]

St Louis, Iginla, Hall multiple times, Gaborik, Hossa. Age is irrelevant, he's a rental, being effective as a 29 year old for 3 months isn't somehow better than being as effective for 3 months as a 33 year old.

Ignoring any of that, a 3 month marginal at best upgrade on Ehlers isn't worth the big step back next season.

Hossa is probably the closet comparable.

He returned multiple roster players in Armstrong and Christensen, a 1st and the team’s top prospect.

St Louis returned multiple 1sts and the Rangers captain.

Iginla, Hall and Gaborik were not having good seasons when moved.

 

[Gurglesons]

I would call Jake a very good winger who turns 30 years old before next season starts and is a UFA looking for a big retirement raise taking him well into his 30's.......not sure if I would call him a unicorn. I would say if Jake was 5 years younger then I would say he's more of a unicorn, but if he was 5 years younger the Pens likely wouldn't be trading him.

Again the point is, the Jets want to add to the CURRENT roster not take away from it while also adding (& adding huge risk of Jake bolting to UFA or giving his agent further leverage to get max level deal from the Jets). If Jake can't be had (not even sure the Jets have interest, seen no rumors on it) for futures, then he likely isn't a option this TDL and the Jets might kick his tires this summer if he's unsigned.

the trade is made with the understanding that Ehlers for some reason is not viewed as a viable top line player by Jets coaching and management.

It gives them Connor, Guentzel, Iafallo down the left side for a cup run.

 

[Snowman]

You are missing the point.

Players like Jake aren't moved as rental. You are trying to extrapolate a return based on an asset we haven't seen moved in recent years.

We saw Florida move Owen Tippett. Ehlers is obviously a much better player, but that's why the Penguins aren't getting anything else in return in the proposed deal. I'm not sure the trade makes sense, but my point is more so that Guentzel is a unicorn in terms of his availability at the deadline.

Obviously Ehlers made his way back up to L1 on Saturday day night. That probably complicates this deal because it was made under the assumption that Bowness was going to continue to play the guy minimal minutes in comparison to a player like Jake.

Actually you're missing the point. Guentzel is a rental. He's good, but he's just a rental.

He's not some unicorn, he's a winger that produces well when he has one of the best centers to ever play the game making plays for him. Without that he's probably still a good player, but still just a winger and not some unicorn. Does he drive the play on his line? No, Crosby does.

So while he'll get a nice return, he won't likely set a record for a rental return as you are asking for here.

Especially if you're basing that return on the premise that Guentzel wants to sign in Winnipeg. If that is true, as discussed earlier, the Jets have no incentive to pay that record amount. They can just wait.

 

[Gurglesons]

Actually you're missing the point. Guentzel is a rental. He's good, but he's just a rental.

He's not some unicorn, he's a winger that produces well when he has one of the best centers to ever play the game making plays for him. Without that he's probably still a good player, but still just a winger and not some unicorn. Does he drive the play on his line? No, Crosby does.

So while he'll get a nice return, he won't likely set a record for a rental return as you are asking for here.

Especially if you're basing that return on the premise that Guentzel wants to sign in Winnipeg. If that is true, as discussed earlier, the Jets have no incentive to party that record amount. They can just wait.

I don’t think it is a record amount. But YMMV.

He’s a winger that since he entered the league produces at a goal per game in the playoffs like McDavid.

 

[Snowman]

I don’t think it is a record amount. But YMMV.

He’s a winger that since he entered the league produces at a goal per game in the playoffs like McDavid.

you forgot to add "when he has one of the best centers to ever play setting him up."

Without him, who knows.

 

[Gurglesons]

you forgot to add "when he has one of the best centers to ever play setting him up."

Without him, who knows.

He had his best season point per game wise with Malkin and was ppg with Jeff Carter too.

Also just a very uneducated take. Jake does a ton for Sid.

 

[Hunter368]

the trade is made with the understanding that Ehlers for some reason is not viewed as a viable top line player by Jets coaching and management.

It gives them Connor, Guentzel, Iafallo down the left side for a cup run.

Ehlers has been a top 6 player for his entire career with the Jets outside of literally handful of games. So your whole trade idea seems very flawed logic. Plus you continue to ignore all my other points:

- Jets want/need to add to the CURRENT roster, not take away from it. Jets would offer futures potentially but not a top 6 winger+.
- Jake is a pure UFA rental
- 12 team NTC, if Jake wanted to waive it, likely would be to a bigger contender then the Jets
- Huge UFA bolt risk that Jake is
- Jake is not some kind of unicorn player, he's a very good aging winger about to sign his biggest and final contract of his career.........huge risk for any buyer to sign all players in that position, teams often do it yes but that's not my point my point is he isn't some unicorn 80 point (40g/40A) guy who's 23 years old and available while also making a very reasonable contract. He's going to be a 30 year aging winger starting next season, making a max market deal and the final 3-4 years of that deal will likely look ugly, just like all/most players do. AKA not a unicorn player

 

[Atoyot]

You are missing the point.

Players like Jake aren't moved as rental. You are trying to extrapolate a return based on an asset we haven't seen moved in recent years.

We saw Florida move Owen Tippett. Ehlers is obviously a much better player, but that's why the Penguins aren't getting anything else in return in the proposed deal. I'm not sure the trade makes sense, but my point is more so that Guentzel is a unicorn in terms of his availability at the deadline.

Obviously Ehlers made his way back up to L1 on Saturday day night. That probably complicates this deal because it was made under the assumption that Bowness was going to continue to play the guy minimal minutes in comparison to a player like Jake.

Guentzel is by definition a rental. I'm a big fan of his, but I just don't see the logic in the trade. Rentals don't always click on their new team and there's always risk with the Crosby effect. He's a very good player, but Scheifele is no Crosby. No sense subtracting a piece that we know works here for one that might.

 

[Gurglesons]

Ehlers has been a top 6 player for his entire career with the Jets outside of literally handful of games. So your whole trade idea seems very flawed logic. Plus you continue to ignore all my other points:

- Jets want/need to add to the CURRENT roster, not take away from it. Jets would offer futures potentially but not a top 6 winger+.
- Jake is a pure UFA rental
- 12 team NTC, if Jake wanted to waive it, likely would be to a bigger contender then the Jets
- Huge UFA bolt risk that Jake is
- Jake is not some kind of unicorn player, he's a very good aging winger about to sign his biggest and final contract of his career.........huge risk for any buyer to sign all players in that position, teams often do it yes but that's not my point my point is he isn't some unicorn 80 point (40g/40A) guy who's 23 years old and available while also making a very reasonable contract. He's going to be a 30 year aging winger starting next season, making a max market deal and the final 3-4 years of that deal will likely look ugly, just like all/most players do. AKA not a unicorn player

Any team adding Jake is likely sending back roster pieces.

Guentzel is by definition a rental. I'm a big fan of his, but I just don't see the logic in the trade. Rentals don't always click on their new team and there's always risk with the Crosby effect. He's a very good player, but Scheifele is no Crosby. No sense subtracting a piece that we know works here for one that might.

The premise of the trade is how management and coaching view Ehlers.

 

[Snowman]

He had his best season point per game wise with Malkin and was ppg with Jeff Carter too.

Also just a very uneducated take. Jake does a ton for Sid.

Oh, so he also produces well with another one of the top centers to ever play as well? Who would have thought that? And then he got lucky and produced when he and Carter were younger.

Just give up when you're behind instead of cherry picking things here and there that you think somehow prove your silly premise.

 

[Hunter368]

Any team adding Jake is likely sending back roster pieces.



The premise of the trade is how management and coaching view Ehlers.

Roster piece, aka bottom six forward + futures

or

bottom pairing D, + futures


No one giving up a top 6 proven forward

Ehlers mins are right in line with all the other wingers in the top 6, not including KC

 

[Gurglesons]

Oh, so he also produces well with another one of the top centers to ever play as well? Who would have thought that? And then he got lucky and produced when he and Carter were younger.

Just give up when you're behind instead of cherry picking things here and there that you think somehow prove your silly premise.

37 year old Carter.

Roster piece, aka bottom six forward + futures

or

bottom pairing D, + futures


No one giving up a top 6 proven forward

Ehlers mins are right in line with all the other wingers in the top 6, not including KC

So would you be open to Iafallo, 1st and a 3rd?