I wouldn't make the claim that Matthews is battling for number 2 in the league out loud, on the TV or radio, but I don't think that it is a completely crazy thing to say.
I am not a "Leafs fan". Buffalo is my local team (although over my life I have lived in a half dozen different NHL cities across the US and Canada), but I consider myself a free agent who has no team, and simply appreciates great hockey players no matter where they play. I wanted Toronto to win the McDavid lottery because the franchise has had such a crap history over the last many decades. Having watched McDavid last year and this year, I think he is incredible. That speed with the puck, unreal. Before the season started I was saddened that the Leafs 1OA was someone like Matthews instead of someone like McDavid, the former whom I considered likely to be a career weak first line 60 point/season centre and the latter whom I considered likely to be a 100 point/season centre in the top 2 or 3 in the league for 15 years, winning a lot of hardware. Why the huge difference between the two? Perhaps it is because McDavid posted huge numbers in the OHL, whereas I couldn't really assess Matthews time Switzerland the same way. Perhaps it was simply because I felt it extremely unlikely for two draft years in a row to have such an incredible talent.
The roughly 12 games I have watched both play this year has completely changed my mind about Matthews (and a little about McDavid). I posted elsewhere that if I was a coach I would take Matthews over McDavid and I mean that. I think that Matthews is becoming (or rather has become) a complete player (I still think that he may never be great at faceoffs, but I don't consider that a big deal, and McDavid is worse in that department) I still think that McDavid will probably score more points over the next couple years, but even there I wonder if part of that is bias from over-rating how truly beneficial McDavid's raw speed actually is.
Over the last 20 games that each player has played:
Matthews is tied for fourth (as far as I can tell - I might be missing someone): Malkin (27), Crosby (26), Burns!!! (24), Matthews and Kane (22), Tarasenko and Panarin (21), Kessel (20), McDavid and Laine (19).
And is first in goals: Matthews (15), Crosby Atkinson and Carter (12), Tarasenko (11) with Laine and Ovechkin scoring 9 and McDavid 3.
And that is playing a line with Brown and Hyman (although I am a big fan of both and want the line kept together), and while in general playing about 2 - 4 minutes less a game than most of the other big producers I have mentioned. Matthews average time on ice is also slowly increasing.
I think that Crosby will finish the season with 44 goals (due to his s% returning towards his normal range in the second half). I expect Ovechkin to have a stronger second half and finish with 46 or 47. I think that Matthews has a decent shot at mid to high 40s in terms of goals and therefore might be fighting it out for the Rocket first year. I predicted 50 (+/- 5) points for Matthews before the start of the year. I now think that 80 is likely. If it doesn't happen...if he ends up with 60 points and 35 goals, I will still be extremely impressed with the way he has played.
I am not a "Leafs fan". Buffalo is my local team (although over my life I have lived in a half dozen different NHL cities across the US and Canada), but I consider myself a free agent who has no team, and simply appreciates great hockey players no matter where they play. I wanted Toronto to win the McDavid lottery because the franchise has had such a crap history over the last many decades. Having watched McDavid last year and this year, I think he is incredible. That speed with the puck, unreal. Before the season started I was saddened that the Leafs 1OA was someone like Matthews instead of someone like McDavid, the former whom I considered likely to be a career weak first line 60 point/season centre and the latter whom I considered likely to be a 100 point/season centre in the top 2 or 3 in the league for 15 years, winning a lot of hardware. Why the huge difference between the two? Perhaps it is because McDavid posted huge numbers in the OHL, whereas I couldn't really assess Matthews time Switzerland the same way. Perhaps it was simply because I felt it extremely unlikely for two draft years in a row to have such an incredible talent.
The roughly 12 games I have watched both play this year has completely changed my mind about Matthews (and a little about McDavid). I posted elsewhere that if I was a coach I would take Matthews over McDavid and I mean that. I think that Matthews is becoming (or rather has become) a complete player (I still think that he may never be great at faceoffs, but I don't consider that a big deal, and McDavid is worse in that department) I still think that McDavid will probably score more points over the next couple years, but even there I wonder if part of that is bias from over-rating how truly beneficial McDavid's raw speed actually is.
Over the last 20 games that each player has played:
Matthews is tied for fourth (as far as I can tell - I might be missing someone): Malkin (27), Crosby (26), Burns!!! (24), Matthews and Kane (22), Tarasenko and Panarin (21), Kessel (20), McDavid and Laine (19).
And is first in goals: Matthews (15), Crosby Atkinson and Carter (12), Tarasenko (11) with Laine and Ovechkin scoring 9 and McDavid 3.
And that is playing a line with Brown and Hyman (although I am a big fan of both and want the line kept together), and while in general playing about 2 - 4 minutes less a game than most of the other big producers I have mentioned. Matthews average time on ice is also slowly increasing.
I think that Crosby will finish the season with 44 goals (due to his s% returning towards his normal range in the second half). I expect Ovechkin to have a stronger second half and finish with 46 or 47. I think that Matthews has a decent shot at mid to high 40s in terms of goals and therefore might be fighting it out for the Rocket first year. I predicted 50 (+/- 5) points for Matthews before the start of the year. I now think that 80 is likely. If it doesn't happen...if he ends up with 60 points and 35 goals, I will still be extremely impressed with the way he has played.
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