Phoenix LXVIII - "Watch out for that Tree"

[Blue Warriors]

Maybe Mr. Jamison is saving the big announcement for the home opener...

 

[GuelphStormer]

could we make this team a success?

so im wondering if, given all of the real expertise here on these boards, whether we could pool our thoughts and abilities and hypothetically make this team successful in this market. i know we have a few lawyers, teachers, sales guys, market dudes, analysts, financiers, etc. ... and most of us are nutty hockey fans. im good with numbers, economics and analysis, so I will offer that up.

who else wants to play? silly exercise, i know. but a) do you think it's even possible to turn this thing around? (I think so), and b) do you think we could do it? (I think so)

let's assume for fun now that we get the $324M promised to jamison. which is a nice safety net. we'll need help from our phoenix members here to provide some on-the-ground specifics, of course.

so, to start off, what things would we need to do this year? need to do right now?

 

[Confucius]

Anyone else kind of bugged that in the end, if this sale does not go through, the NHL gets out of this mess with no loss because of expansion/relocation fees? I know it's their business but damn....

It's still a loss, they would have made a profit from expanding to Quebec, now after adding their losses to their purchase plus carrying costs they may break even if they're lucky.

 

[JMT21]

The COG AMF contract, put forth to JIG, is due to expire on the 31st of January. This deadline is much ado about nothing! With the season opener Saturday, that should have been the self imposed deadline that the fraudster Jamison should have been looking at! Once the team begins play and enacts a marketing scheme it puts Gramps on the outside looking in for the remainder of the year. Contracts are in place as are the few marketing and admin folks. His signature would need to wait until the season is over to have any effect. If he has investors, then he has proven himself to be completely incompetent by not closing prior to the opening of this season. To those who say he is waiting to learn the nuances of the new CBA, that is baloney! He has had access to the broader framework that makes up that deal for weeks, possibly months. This all goes to the point, that he will not be buying this franchise! Never intended to from the start, what a joke!

Couldn't agree more. As the former/current/future minority owner of the Sharks it's folly to think GJ didn't already have a decent understanding of how the former CBA worked. Not really rocket science to understand how the new CBA could potentially benefit the team via revenue sharing, lower salary cap etc. etc. etc.

Explaining the nuances to investors who might not know the difference between a hockey puck and a beach ball is an entirely different kettle of fish.

Investors : So Greg..... how does the new CBA look and much profit will be reap?

GJ : Well..... I'm pretty sure that we can be hopeful to possibly entertain the idea that maybe our losses and future cash calls might slightly diminish.

Investors : What about profits Greg....... the profits!

GJ : I stand behind my initial statement

Investors : OK... where do we sign.

 

[JMT21]

so im wondering if, given all of the real expertise here on these boards, whether we could pool our thoughts and abilities and hypothetically make this team successful in this market. i know we have a few lawyers, teachers, sales guys, market dudes, analysts, financiers, etc. ... and most of us are nutty hockey fans. im good with numbers, economics and analysis, so I will offer that up.

who else wants to play? silly exercise, i know. but a) do you think it's even possible to turn this thing around? (I think so), and b) do you think we could do it? (I think so)

let's assume for fun now that we get the $324M promised to jamison. which is a nice safety net. we'll need help from our phoenix members here to provide some on-the-ground specifics, of course.

so, to start off, what things would we need to do this year? need to do right now?

Instead of long drawn out attempt to answer.... I'll keep it simple.

Minimum of 15K fans at every game. Average ticket price $60.00 - $70.00.

 

[L4cer8]

so im wondering if, given all of the real expertise
so, to start off, what things would we need to do this year? need to do right now?

Move the arena to the East Valley. Franchise saved.

 

[GF]

so im wondering if, given all of the real expertise here on these boards, whether we could pool our thoughts and abilities and hypothetically make this team successful in this market. i know we have a few lawyers, teachers, sales guys, market dudes, analysts, financiers, etc. ... and most of us are nutty hockey fans. im good with numbers, economics and analysis, so I will offer that up.

who else wants to play? silly exercise, i know. but a) do you think it's even possible to turn this thing around? (I think so), and b) do you think we could do it? (I think so)

let's assume for fun now that we get the $324M promised to jamison. which is a nice safety net. we'll need help from our phoenix members here to provide some on-the-ground specifics, of course.

so, to start off, what things would we need to do this year? need to do right now?

Have you ever been to a Coyotes game? I did. You can't turn this thing around. Period.

There are some fans, it sucks for them. They support their team. They pay their season tickets. They buy Doan jerseys and whatnot. There are just not enough of them to make this work. When people in charge will realize this(GJ, GB, BoG), this circus will end once and for all.

Think about it for a second, 16years of losing money! 16 years of losing millions of dollars! That's beyond crazy stupid. That's straightjacket stupid. No sane person in the world would touch this with a ten foot pole.

 

[Edgar Halliwax]

Based on their actions it would seem that the people running the NHL disagree.

True dat. It's a great place for meetings in the middle of winter.

 

[GuelphStormer]

Have you ever been to a Coyotes game? I did. You can't turn this thing around. Period.

There are some fans, it sucks for them. They support their team. They pay their season tickets. They buy Doan jerseys and whatnot. There are just not enough of them to make this work. When people in charge will realize this(GJ, GB, BoG), this circus will end once and for all.

Think about it for a second, 16years of losing money! 16 years of losing millions of dollars! That's beyond crazy stupid. That's straightjacket stupid. No sane person in the world would touch this with a ten foot pole.

ok, so you are out.

ok, so far we have "can't be done"; "move the arena" (which I don't think is likely) and an end goal of increasing sales and prices (which is good, so let's flush that out with some how-to's).

anyone else?

 

[sipowicz]

BREAKING NEWS, next time on Oprah, Jamison admit that he dont have the money....

You got it, actually took me a second after looking back to see what I posted last night , coulda been the goose...

Looks like we've come up on the EVE of the final two weeks where gramps Jamison may finally have to "show me the money" or he may just walk.

You would have thought a guy that is serious about buying the team would have done so after the lockout as a sign to fans who may think of purchasing tickets, merchandise, etc. that the team might be around for awhile.

 

[cbcwpg]

ok, so you are out.

ok, so far we have "can't be done"; "move the arena" (which I don't think is likely) and an end goal of increasing sales and prices (which is good, so let's flush that out with some how-to's).

anyone else?

Be careful.. Jamison might be reading these forums. We don't want to give him any ideas. I want to see if he can turn it around without our help.

 

[Major4Boarding]

Instead of long drawn out attempt to answer.... I'll keep it simple.

Minimum of 15K fans at every game. Average ticket price $60.00 - $70.00.

ok, so you are out.

ok, so far we have "can't be done"; "move the arena" (which I don't think is likely) and an end goal of increasing sales and prices (which is good, so let's flush that out with some how-to's).

anyone else?

Agree with JMT... ticket price increase + more game-nite attendance... as a start

Just simplistic, "fun-with-numbers" calculations

Several months ago, Sunnucks wrote an article where the avg ticket price for the 'Yotes was $36.15. I took a reserved approach to coming up with avg attendance numbers per game (did not look up ESPN - and going with just a simple ballpark actual number vs. "announced" attendance) and went with 12K per game @ $36.15. AGAIN, just simplistic, "fun-with-numbers" calculations:


$36.15 @ 12K

$433,800 per game x 41 games = $17,785,800

$36.15 @ 17K

$614,550 per game x 41 games = $25,196,550

Increase of $7,410,750



$43.65 @ 12K

$523,800 per game x 41 games = $21,475,800

$43.65 @ 17K

$742,050 per game x 41 games = $30,424,050

@12K - Increase of $3,690,000

@17K - Increase of $12,638,250


You get the idea... there's a full 2hrs worth of research and ideas beyond this very generic portion here that I could come up with. Too busy at work to do so.

 

[aj8000]

Because it's in an unhealthy location and there is no benefit whatsoever to the NHL. If no one is watching or attending games in Glendale the team should not be in that market. It's a dead market and there is no growth potential. The situation is embarrassing and frankly it makes the NHL look like a bush league.

Unhealthy location based on your opinion? No doubt they have problems, but problems do not = unhealthy location.

I have to disagree with you regarding the benefit to the NHL. There is lots of upside to the Arizona market, that in its self is a big benefit to the NHL; however, whether they can leverage that is another question.

"It is a dead market without any growth potential" is very subjective, many of the teams that are current sellouts have very little growth potential so are they dead markets as well? Actually Arizona has one of the largest growth potentials in the league. getting to the growth is the hard part.

"The situation is embarrassing and frankly it makes the NHL look like a bush league." embarrassing to whom? the NHL , the Fans or just you? Keep in mind most hockey fans do not pay attention to the attendance records or ticket prices like the posters on this forum. In a nutshell most people do not care one way or other. The Yotes are the Pacific Division Champions that is hardly bush league and that is what will be remembered.

If the city and a bunch of investors decide to support the team (personally I think it is a bad idea from a financial point of view) then they are fully in their right to do so. I am sorry you are embarrassed maybe you should not tell people you like the NHL and become a closet NHL fan and then at least people will not laugh and smirk at you making you embarrassed anymore that you are an NHL fan because of the Yotes

 

[aj8000]

Never intended to from the start, what a joke!

I have to disagree, his intention was to try to get a ownership group together to purchase the team. Likely by request of the NHL; however, he has not been able to get all the pieces of the puzzle together and the current deal will fall through.

 

[Killion]

Anyone else kind of bugged that in the end, if this sale does not go through, the NHL gets out of this mess with no loss because of expansion/relocation fees? I know it's their business but damn....

Its really quite the paradox. Despite themselves, the league has been, is & will be tremendously successful. Really, the only loss per se' from a strictly here & now perspective, dollars & common sense is as Stix&Stones states...

It's still a loss, they would have made a profit from expanding to Quebec, now after adding their losses to their purchase plus carrying costs they may break even if they're lucky.

... which is precisely the point. Once youve' been forced into a retreat & relocation, that market's off the charts & off the radar in terms of realizing and receiving unencumbered Expansion Fee's forever. In relocating the Thrashers to Winnipeg, the league received $60M (app $2.2M X's 29 Teams) however, had they instead awarded TNSE an Expansion Franchise, they probably couldve received as much as $250M free & clear.

Now that that precedents been set, and due to the heavy baggage Phoenix carries in accumulated losses including the $140M purchase price the league paid, Quebec, a similar sized market to Winnipeg cant reasonably be expected to pay much more all-in, meaning the NHL breaks even, is made whole again. Sure, they could tack on a $50M "relo fee", and who knows, maybe PKP just bites the bullet and forks over, but Id rather doubt that, the man is no fool, and the NHL's options are seriously limited.

At this time, with the exception of maybe Hamilton (though there no owner we know of, at least $150M required to update Copps, along with indemnification for MLSE & the Sabres) there is no where else to go. Seattle could I suppose provide a landing spot, but you'd be looking at serious losses playing out of a refurbished temporary home in Key Arena for several years, not to mention not really having a handle on a lease agreement with Hansen & his new building, some obstacles still remaining. So yes, bottom line, the NHL does in fact find itself paying a price through relocation, and a rather heavy one at that.

 

[aj8000]

At this time, with the exception of maybe Hamilton (though there no owner we know of, at least $150M required to update Copps, along with indemnification for MLSE & the Sabres) there is no where else to go. Seattle could I suppose provide a landing spot, but you'd be looking at serious losses playing out of a refurbished temporary home in Key Arena for several years, not to mention not really having a handle on a lease agreement with Hansen & his new building, some obstacles still remaining. So yes, bottom line, the NHL does in fact find itself paying a price through relocation, and a rather heavy one at that.

Now that the leafs will be paying more into revenue sharing, after a cost benefit analysis, the team would be better off letting Hamilton join the league for no indemnification so they can reduce the revenue sharing payment in perpetuity.

 

[CasualFan]

so im wondering if, given all of the real expertise here on these boards, whether we could pool our thoughts and abilities and hypothetically make this team successful in this market. i know we have a few lawyers, teachers, sales guys, market dudes, analysts, financiers, etc. ... and most of us are nutty hockey fans. im good with numbers, economics and analysis, so I will offer that up.

who else wants to play? silly exercise, i know. but a) do you think it's even possible to turn this thing around? (I think so), and b) do you think we could do it? (I think so)

let's assume for fun now that we get the $324M promised to jamison. which is a nice safety net. we'll need help from our phoenix members here to provide some on-the-ground specifics, of course.

so, to start off, what things would we need to do this year? need to do right now?

For reference, here's what was estimated in BK as full potential of revenues.

Tickets $35MM
Sponsorship $25MM
Suites $10MM
Concession/Merch $3MM
Local TV $5MM
Revenue Share $14MM
League Revenue $10MM
Other $2.5MM
TOTAL: $104.5MM

 

[Killion]

Now that the leafs will be paying more into revenue sharing, after a cost benefit analysis, the team would be better off letting Hamilton join the league for no indemnification so they can reduce the revenue sharing payment in perpetuity.

At the risk of running slightly off-topic, I rather doubt Rogers-Bell & Tennebaum would be dropping those demands, leaving all that money on the table. Indeed, they might actually be more than amenable to cashing in for two reasons; 1) they can recoup a huge chunk of the change they put out last year in acquiring MLSE and; 2) Content. The broadcast rights for another team in S.O. are worth a fortune. Some combination of cash and the acquisition of those rights over the new teams first decade + of existence a license to print money, on top of the Leafs broadcasts of course, new media streams, app's, the whole shebang, affording control to a large extent, monopolization.

 

[TheLegend]

The COG AMF contract, put forth to JIG, is due to expire on the 31st of January. This deadline is much ado about nothing! With the season opener Saturday, that should have been the self imposed deadline that the fraudster Jamison should have been looking at! Once the team begins play and enacts a marketing scheme it puts Gramps on the outside looking in for the remainder of the year. Contracts are in place as are the few marketing and admin folks. His signature would need to wait until the season is over to have any effect. If he has investors, then he has proven himself to be completely incompetent by not closing prior to the opening of this season. To those who say he is waiting to learn the nuances of the new CBA, that is baloney! He has had access to the broader framework that makes up that deal for weeks, possibly months. This all goes to the point, that he will not be buying this franchise! Never intended to from the start, what a joke!

"Yadda.....yadda.....yadda....."

"And the beat goes on.............."

 

[TheLegend]

Move the arena to the East Valley. Franchise saved.

You had your chance..... blame your city council for not stepping up.

 

[epo]

For reference, here's what was estimated in BK as full potential of revenues.

Tickets $35MM
Sponsorship $25MM
Suites $10MM
Concession/Merch $3MM
Local TV $5MM
Revenue Share $14MM
League Revenue $10MM
Other $2.5MM
TOTAL: $104.5MM

Revenue sharing at $90MM+?

That sponsorship number seems way out there. Phoenix Coyotes presented by Glendale?

 

[Wheathead]

Is this deal pretty well fool proof that the JIG will be subsidized for any losses the franchise incurs with the AMF? Is there any chance that the JIG loses money on this?

 

[cbcwpg]

Is this deal pretty well fool proof that the JIG will be subsidized for any losses the franchise incurs with the AMF? Is there any chance that the JIG loses money on this?

There is potential for substantial losses for Jamison, at least in the first few years. The problem is nobody really knows the exact amount that the team is down each year, so when you add up what Jamison might get from the AMF and revenue sharing, it's not known if this is still leaving him short and by how much.

 

[AllByDesign]

so im wondering if, given all of the real expertise here on these boards, whether we could pool our thoughts and abilities and hypothetically make this team successful in this market. i know we have a few lawyers, teachers, sales guys, market dudes, analysts, financiers, etc. ... and most of us are nutty hockey fans. im good with numbers, economics and analysis, so I will offer that up.

who else wants to play? silly exercise, i know. but a) do you think it's even possible to turn this thing around? (I think so), and b) do you think we could do it? (I think so)

let's assume for fun now that we get the $324M promised to jamison. which is a nice safety net. we'll need help from our phoenix members here to provide some on-the-ground specifics, of course.

so, to start off, what things would we need to do this year? need to do right now?

Great topic.

It is posssible to execute a marketing and sales initiative to repair the damage to the Coyotes brand in the Valley. The oposing force is that it would take a large investment of cash over a period of 5-7 years. This would be in addition to the infusion provided by the municipal government.

This investment of cash to accomplish would never be recouped. You wouldn't be able to generate sufficient profit over a 20 year period. The 5-7 year plan would require an exit strategy by year 10. Depending on the actual cash purchase of the franchise, you would have a slim chance of being ahead of the game.

As someone in finance, I would advise an investor to pass on this as the odds of having a return are similar to playing roulette. The only way anyone would invest is if they were set in a position to lose a large sum of cash and net worth. There would have to be alterior motives... such as Status, tax shelter, combining other interests (you have a clothing manufaturing company or in food services), have a leg into the proposed gambling facility.

If you are looking for who Jamisons investors are, they would be souls that fall into the above category.

BREAKING NEWS, next time on Oprah, Jamison admit that he dont have the money....

... This is the funniest thing I have read in a very long time!

 

[Puckschmuck*]

Move the arena to the East Valley. Franchise saved.

Great. I'll get the magic wand, and...........................