Well, as long as some are making predictions....
My view has always been that I want the parties to make sound decisions. I don't really care what IA and NHL do, as long as their 'partner' does something that makes sense.... The reason I feel that way is that IA and NHL have been less-than-totally truthful and/or ethical in this deal for so long that, if they end up holding the bag, I don't really care.
So, with that in mind. Two different posters here have mentioned that they have a source (and I am assuming it is two different sources, but of course it could be the same source) who has told them that AEG/Glendale have offered a long-term deal with a 1-yr outclause to the Coyotes on relatively favorable terms. Apparently, the IA group would not even talk to them about it. And, in both cases, the word is that the team is not going to get the same offer if they come to the city again. I APPLAUD THIS. The Coyotes have not proven to be as much an asset to the city as hoped, and the only reason to keep them is so that GRA needn't be empty. It's not worth giving away large sums of $$ to accomplish that. So, if this rumor is true, I think it's a great step for Glendale. As far as the future of the franchise, this means that the only way there is a deal with Glendale is on short-term bases. I can't see a long-term arrangement there.
Next, Tempe and the State of Arizona. This all depends on the terms of the proposal IA brings to the table. If the proposal is that the IA group covers all cost overruns immediately, and the IA contribution is in actual immediate $$ (not a promise of naming rights), and there is no ongoing movement of cash to the team (nothing like an AMF, or a constant giving of what would be state taxes on the arena), and if the gov't portion is designed to be paid back over time, then it would be an OK investment. Of course, that won't be the proposal, so I am going to HATE whatever the proposal is. I sincerely hope that the state, the university, and the city don't make a deal with these guys, because I would not trust them to bury my dog.
As far as a prediction: IA has less than a 50% chance to get something through that they can use. They need a constant influx of cash from the gov't partner, and I don't think that AZ, et al have any appetite for that.
So, that leaves a better than 50% chance that there is no deal in Tempe, and no deal in Glendale. What next? Well, I suppose a short-term rent at GRA while they look for another site is possible, but the way the announcement came down this fall, I doubt it. I would say that another attempt is always possible, but I don't think it's too likely, because if a deal with a tribe were possible, I think that IA would have preferred that to working with a gov't agency, where transparency happens. So, the odds of another site coming up are very small to me.
I think, therefore, that there is a 40-50% chance of a relo this summer. Now, the question is, where?
I think Portland is out, because Allen isn't going to pay. So, that leaves, really, QC and Seattle. Interestingly, if the entire city of QC where located at Sault Ste. Marie, on the eastern point of Lake Superior, I don't think there would be any question. Only QC's location on the globe makes a problem. Given that alignment is a major issue, in my opinion, it bears that we look at Seattle first.
So, Seattle: Hansen still wants to build his SoDo arena, but he has a problem: The city isn't going to vote to vacate the street he needs vacated any time soon. There is an RFP going out next week for plans to renovate Key Arena to make it NHL and/or NBA friendly again. Responses are due in April. What that means is that it won't be know exactly what the city is going to do with that until well beyond the window necessary for a relo of the Coyotes this summer. And, THAT'S A BIG PROBLEM. Here is why.... In the event that the city would choose to renovate Key, the work can't start until this fall (2017) at earliest. Key is the temp arena in the region. If it's being renovated, there is no place to play during the renovation. Also, there is some question on the Seattle thread whether any such reno could be acceptable to the NHL. That further creates a problem. City renovates Key, no street vacation, and no place to play for the team. Of course, it's possible that the city does not vote to do that, but you won't know until it's too late to do something. And, even if the Key renovation doesn't happen, Hansen still has a problem with NHL in his building. I can't imagine him giving away the revenue streams in the building to an NHL owner, and the NHL says he is not interested in NHL ownership himself. That means that the economics of playing in SoDo really do not pencil out. So, Seattle seems a big boondoggle.
And, that leaves QC. In spite of alignment... There is one interpretation in QC's favor: The answer to the question "Why no expansion team in Quebec when there is one in Vegas?" Answer: Vegas had to get one NOW, because Foley wanted in right away. So, not knowing what would happen in the Valley of the Sun, the league had to give him his team, or miss the 500M. But, QC may have been denied under the idea that the Arizona franchise might need to relocate. And, thus.... Maybe??
But, the problems associated with both relo options bring me to circle back and say, "I still don't know. Maybe the league will step in again, in a silent fashion, and force the team to continue operating in the Phoenix metro. I just don't know....."
In short, since the league has prolonged any real action, instead choosing the money grab in Vegas, they are perhaps running themselves out of good options. And, if that's the case, it couldn't happen to a more worthy bunch....
