Phoenix CXVII: Waiting to Exhale (or see shovels in the ground)

[Llama19]

Maybe because debating mostly fictional numbers is pointless? IA has not shared their books with the OP so it's more out-of-backside than back-of-napkin.

Season is almost here, glad the Megathread is open for business. I don't want to get into the Reinsdorf chronology thing but I do want to mock Goldwater just a bit: My understanding is that Sitren is now a cut-rate attorney at her own practice doing FOIA and public interest litigation...

Hope everyone is doing well

Carrie Ann Sitren is now Carrie Ann Donnell...

And, according to her profile, has not worked for Goldwater for seven years...

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sitren

Doing well, thank you, and welcome back to the thread...

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Maybe because debating mostly fictional numbers is pointless? IA has not shared their books with the OP so it's more out-of-backside than back-of-napkin.

I'm glad you're back.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Any buzz for the season/team in Glendale/Phoenix yet?

I'd imagine the fanbase is still burned out.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

My heart really goes out to the fans of the coyotes.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Any buzz for the season/team in Glendale/Phoenix yet?

I'd imagine the fanbase is still burned out.

There's been some buzz (whenever people can stop talking about the Cardinals) about the large number of hot prospects in the system. In a sense, Coyotes fans are venturing into uncharted territory with a team that has an actual future on the ice, even if it may not have one off the ice in Arizona by next summer.

The die-hards are all waiting to see whether Chayka's "good moves on paper" translate to improvement on the ice this year. I think we've all liked the way he's gone about his job but there are no guarantees with anything, and he's taken flyers on more than a few "project players" - Luke Schenn, Lawson Crouse, Tony DeAngelo, etc. So I'd judge the mood among the faithful as "cautiously optimistic."

As for the hoi polloi, it's been four extremely long years since the Western Conference Final appearance and whatever market momentum we had from it has long since been squandered. The incremental performance gain we had last year over the previous season wasn't enough to move the needle. That said, we have an opportunity to make inroads, what with the Diamondbacks and Suns being train wrecks on and off the ice and the Cardinals playing like monkeys humping a football right now. We'll have to see how the season goes.

As for being "burned out," I think most in AZ are just bone-weary of the whole off-ice saga. We just want it over, one way or the other, for longer than a fortnight.

 

[TheLegend]

Any buzz for the season/team in Glendale/Phoenix yet?

I'd imagine the fanbase is still burned out.

There's been some buzz (whenever people can stop talking about the Cardinals) about the large number of hot prospects in the system. In a sense, Coyotes fans are venturing into uncharted territory with a team that has an actual future on the ice, even if it may not have one off the ice in Arizona by next summer.

The die-hards are all waiting to see whether Chayka's "good moves on paper" translate to improvement on the ice this year. I think we've all liked the way he's gone about his job but there are no guarantees with anything, and he's taken flyers on more than a few "project players" - Luke Schenn, Lawson Crouse, Tony DeAngelo, etc. So I'd judge the mood among the faithful as "cautiously optimistic."

As for the hoi polloi, it's been four extremely long years since the Western Conference Final appearance and whatever market momentum we had from it has long since been squandered. The incremental performance gain we had last year over the previous season wasn't enough to move the needle. That said, we have an opportunity to make inroads, what with the Diamondbacks and Suns being train wrecks on and off the icle and the Cardinals playing like monkeys humping a football right now. We'll have to see how the season goes.

As for being "burned out," I think most in AZ are just bone-weary of the whole off-ice saga. We just want it over, one way or the other, for longer than a fortnight.

Feckless pretty much summed up my feelings about it.

And he's correct about the mood in general around here. Cardinals have everyone scratching their heads right now like ("These guys were supposed to be Super Bowl material??".) Suns are coming off from another soap opera season of their own and the DBacks..... well.... they could be another example of "throwing gobs of money out to build a team doesn't always work."

I was entrenched in the Don Maloney camp until I saw what Chayka and the front office did over the summer. Understanding that there's going to be at least a couple more years before these kids will be able to produce at the NHL level it's actually fun watching how they perform now. Driving the 2 1/2 hours to Tucson to watch the Roadrunners sometime this coming season is something I'm seriously considering, even though they will play one weekend series at GRA and I'm considering that too.

The arena side of it for me now is one of if they get it off the ground, then I want to see the details in how they expect to make it work. Other than that.... I'll go watch the games.

 

[mesamonster]

Feckless pretty much summed up my feelings about it.

And he's correct about the mood in general around here. Cardinals have everyone scratching their heads right now like ("These guys were supposed to be Super Bowl material??".) Suns are coming off from another soap opera season of their own and the DBacks..... well.... they could be another example of "throwing gobs of money out to build a team doesn't always work."

I was entrenched in the Don Maloney camp until I saw what Chayka and the front office did over the summer. Understanding that there's going to be at least a couple more years before these kids will be able to produce at the NHL level it's actually fun watching how they perform now. Driving the 2 1/2 hours to Tucson to watch the Roadrunners sometime this coming season is something I'm seriously considering, even though they will play one weekend series at GRA and I'm considering that too.

The arena side of it for me now is one of if they get it off the ground, then I want to see the details in how they expect to make it work. Other than that.... I'll go watch the games.

I like your attitude, What else do we have to go with? Seems the on ice faction has been doing their jobs, it is the ownership side that has continuously let everyone down with their inability to establish a comprehensive plan for the future.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Carrie Ann Sitren is now Carrie Ann Donnell...

And, according to her profile, has not worked for Goldwater for seven years...

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sitren

Doing well, thank you, and welcome back to the thread...

Not to split hairs, but if you read further down the page it says she left Goldwater in November 2012. Looks like she was double dipping for a few years. Probably doing some Pro-Bono work to fill up her good karma supply.

IIRC, she was still arguing against the Coyotes potential sale in the spring of 2012.

 

[Slot]

Maybe because debating mostly fictional numbers is pointless? IA has not shared their books with the OP so it's more out-of-backside than back-of-napkin.

Season is almost here, glad the Megathread is open for business. I don't want to get into the Reinsdorf chronology thing but I do want to mock Goldwater just a bit: My understanding is that Sitren is now a cut-rate attorney at her own practice doing FOIA and public interest litigation...

Hope everyone is doing well

I just find it funny that other posters who are "willing to discuss if you lay out the numbers" and screaming about "Show your work!" seem to have shrunk back into the woodwork when a series of numbers which are historically correct (Gate numbers, average attendance, loan status, player salaries) and pretty good guesstimates of expenses is listed.

 

[mesamonster]

I just find it funny that other posters who are "willing to discuss if you lay out the numbers" and screaming about "Show your work!" seem to have shrunk back into the woodwork when a series of numbers which are historically correct (Gate numbers, average attendance, loan status, player salaries) and pretty good guesstimates of expenses is listed.

Not that unusual, most of the fans and those who have been proponents of keeping the team are aware that the financials are not very good. However, as long as the outline of those numbers remains relatively contained they can continue to push the idea that all is well with IA and their leader GB! I don`t blame any of them for wanting to keep the faith, why would you you want to lay bare the facts if you don`t need to? I fault the complicit Valley media corp who have failed miserably in asking the tough questions of management, like Coyote Morgan who would never dare to delve into what is REALLY going on inside IA and their obvious desire to obfuscate the actual facts! The mere fact that there has not been a second party to verify arena options should be a red flag to all. Tony told all of us it was just a matter of legal details before they could announce their prospective pile of super progressed dirt.


Numbers rarely lie, simple logic with regard to revenues and expenses exposes the lie that this team`s losses are being financed internally by a group who has gone out of their way to reduce expenses, per GB`s orders! Irregardless of their financial machinations the red ink continues to spill, it is just a fact.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I just find it funny that other posters who are "willing to discuss if you lay out the numbers" and screaming about "Show your work!" seem to have shrunk back into the woodwork when a series of numbers which are historically correct (Gate numbers, average attendance, loan status, player salaries) and pretty good guesstimates of expenses is listed.

At least tag my name if you're going to crap on me, friend. Also, if I'm going to "scream" when I type I generally use all caps and exclamation points.

I'd be interested in seeing the source for the numbers mesamonster posted, and I'd also ask whether or not he bothered to factor in current corporate sponsorship revenues into the "Income" segment, unless he decided to bundle them into suite revenues.

I still stand by my position that "pretty good guesstimates" and "historically correct" numbers is not good enough if one is going to be hitting the team so hard in public so consistently. It's obvious the team's financial situation remains bad - and the fact that IceArizona resists showing their financials is as much of a red flag as Donald Trump not releasing his tax returns. But I want information, not talking points. And certainly not schadenfreude.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

At least tag my name if you're going to crap on me, friend. Also, if I'm going to "scream" when I type I generally use all caps and exclamation points.

I'd be interested in seeing the source for the numbers mesamonster posted, and I'd also ask whether or not he bothered to factor in current corporate sponsorship revenues into the "Income" segment, unless he decided to bundle them into suite revenues.

I still stand by my position that "pretty good guesstimates" and "historically correct" numbers is not good enough if one is going to be hitting the team so hard in public so consistently. It's obvious the team's financial situation remains bad - and the fact that IceArizona resists showing their financials is as much of a red flag as Donald Trump not releasing his tax returns. But I want information, not talking points. And certainly not schadenfreude.

Yeah, we can safely assume the numbers are bad, and will continue to be bad if the team plays in Glendale under their current situation.

The discussion now is about possible landing sites in the Phoenix area, and if the team is just blowing smoke up everybody's butts.

 

[mesamonster]

At least tag my name if you're going to crap on me, friend. Also, if I'm going to "scream" when I type I generally use all caps and exclamation points.

I'd be interested in seeing the source for the numbers mesamonster posted, and I'd also ask whether or not he bothered to factor in current corporate sponsorship revenues into the "Income" segment, unless he decided to bundle them into suite revenues.

I still stand by my position that "pretty good guesstimates" and "historically correct" numbers is not good enough if one is going to be hitting the team so hard in public so consistently. It's obvious the team's financial situation remains bad - and the fact that IceArizona resists showing their financials is as much of a red flag as Donald Trump not releasing his tax returns. But I want information, not talking points. And certainly not schadenfreude.

Corporate sponsorships have been difficult to chase down this year, they will be added once i have determined their size. Once they have been integrated they will help the bottom line, I did, however, pad some of the suite/premium with what I anticipate to be a portion of the corporate support. A few of last years corporate sponsors have been slower to re-up for 16-17, though that is not unusual in any given year. Some corporate support does not come on board until after the 1st of the year. Should new arena options not be available by that time ,many may opt out for the games in 2017.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Corporate sponsorships have been difficult to chase down this year, they will be added once i have determined their size. Once they have been integrated they will help the bottom line, I did, however, pad some of the suite/premium with what I anticipate to be a portion of the corporate support. A few of last years corporate sponsors have been slower to re-up for 16-17, though that is not unusual in any given year. Some corporate support does not come on board until after the 1st of the year. Should new arena options not be available by that time ,many may opt out for the games in 2017.

Now, see, this is much better dialogue. We could probably pursue this line by questioning how much of the corporate representation at the arena is B2B rather than true sponsorship revenue - I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case with at least two of the prominently-featured sponsors on the dasher boards at GRA.

As for the numbers themselves, I still question how recent the guesstimates are and whether the numbers have significantly changed with Gary Drummond's ascendancy in the ownership group. I'm almost positive the "Expenses" line would look significantly different than that of even a couple of years ago; the question is whether "Incomes" is also significantly different.

The bottom line on the numbers, for me anyway, is that using numbers from past years (or even past ownership groups) isn't going to work. It could very well be that the current actual numbers are even worse than historical ones; but we can't know until they've been published by the ownership. And since IIRC one of the conditions of the settlement with Glendale was the withholding of the total audit results, it doesn't look like we're going to have the hard data anytime soon.

 

[mesamonster]

The one thing we can be sure of is that expenses have gone up! Revenues, not as much as expenses! Seat and suite revenues have remained static the last three years. Corporate revenues and sponsorship dollars are hard to gage exactly. Does anyone know how the GRA naming rights revenues will be apportioned now that AEG is involved?

 

[The Feckless Puck]

The one thing we can be sure of is that expenses have gone up!

Well, factor into it the fact that IA cancelled or declined to make some of their scheduled GRA upgrades, and also the "real numbers" payroll versus the "cap payroll," and there might be a decline in expenses over time. Like I said, recent developments might have changed the numbers significantly from past numbers. We also don't know when or how their piece of the Vegas expansion pie is going to become part of the story (hell, they could be spending that on credit right now for all we know).

 

[mesamonster]

Good point on expansion funds, would not surprise me if that money has already been spent?

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Good point on expansion funds, would not surprise me if that money has already been spent?

Personally, I don't think it has been; it's almost certainly earmarked for the East Valley arena if they can somehow pull a deal off.

 

[Mightygoose]

Personally, I don't think it has been; it's almost certainly earmarked for the East Valley arena if they can somehow pull a deal off.

My understanding the expansion fee gets paid over time and is scheduled to be paid off by the end of April.

If it's ear marked towards the new arena and nothing materializes, then where does it go. Back to the league's LOC would be my guess.

 

[Llama19]

My understanding the expansion fee gets paid over time and is scheduled to be paid off by the end of April.

If it's ear marked towards the new arena and nothing materializes, then where does it go. Back to the league's LOC would be my guess.

I will gladly pay you Tuesday, for a hamburger today!
- J. Wellington Wimpy

NALA +8

 

[Slot]

Well, factor into it the fact that IA cancelled or declined to make some of their scheduled GRA upgrades, and also the "real numbers" payroll versus the "cap payroll," and there might be a decline in expenses over time. Like I said, recent developments might have changed the numbers significantly from past numbers. We also don't know when or how their piece of the Vegas expansion pie is going to become part of the story (hell, they could be spending that on credit right now for all we know).

Real hockey payroll is at $62MM (and some change) whereas Cap Payroll is $70MM according to general fanager. What recent developments would change the numbers significantly for 16-17 and beyond to the point of offsetting even the loss of the $15MM AMF not including the one time expansion windfall? What expenses would go down except for a nominal amount?

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Real hockey payroll is at $62MM (and some change) whereas Cap Payroll is $70MM according to general fanager. What recent developments would change the numbers significantly for 16-17 and beyond to the point of offsetting even the loss of the $15MM AMF not including the one time expansion windfall? What expenses would go down except for a nominal amount?

I don't really care, because I'm not talking about whether the franchise is profitable or not (it isn't). I'm talking about arriving at something resembling a set of accurate numbers so that we have a better information base from which to operate.

 

[Mightygoose]

I will gladly pay you Tuesday, for a hamburger today!
- J. Wellington Wimpy

NALA +8

Well if they earmark their share of the expansion fee (500.00 mil / 30) 16,666.667.00 raised so far and they we're going to pay more than half. Let's say their share is 200 million.

Amount left to raise 183,333,333.00 Left to go. I'm sure they can find creative ways...the (pre) season is young

 

[mesamonster]

The presumed expansion credit will allow this group to have leeway for one year. Beyond that the old financial metrics kick back in with no new arena in the foreseeable future and the prospect of having to play in a venue that will not be kind to them financially. I think we can all agree that this ownership group has chosen to keep payroll and expenses as low as possible for a reason. They do not possess the vast wealth necessary to sustain multiple year over year losses forever. Thus the insane behavior by Tony when he single handedly destroyed their sweetheart deal with the COG! He knew right then that the franchise had little hope financially even with RS, low expense levels, and relatively flexible finance terms with the league. What is a man to do? Well if it is Tony you begin to spin the yarn hoping on hope that the public does not discover his deception. The yarn, with the latest non disclosures is getting awfully thin, even the STH`s are going to begin to notice the lack of creature comforts at GRA, as IA squanders their maintenance allowance on operating expenses!

AEG continues to bang on the door about extending their lease, however, even Tony knows that extending the lease is an admittance of failure and lays bare the fact that the losses will continue to mount as the Coyotes struggle financially in a building that is known loser.


My question for anyone willing to wade in on the business angle presented to IA is what is our long term objective with this team? Do we hang on at GRA for ever presuming a new building is not going to be built? Do we hang on for three years and at the same time commit our $200MM to anew building and hope we can make it in another part of town? Do we wave the white flag at GB and ask him to find a relocation site sooner than later and hope to recapture some of the money they have all lost in this ill fated venture? Or are we all being deceived by this group, they have never had a dime in this debacle, Gary has paid the bills and they are just having fun spending the leagues largesse? Has to be some part of one of these scenarios, which one is it? Certainly the situation needs to be changed one or the other, either for IA GB and/or both this IS NOT a sustainable business model despite the entitlements! HBS, how about a case study in how not to run an organization whose clients are the public!

 

[Llama19]

City makes final payment to NHL

To quote:

"Three years after agreeing to pay the National Hockey League $50 million in order for the team to remain in Glendale while the league ran the team, the city deposited $5 million deposit into an escrow account as the final payment was made Sept. 20.

“Per the agreement dated Sept. 20, 2013, the final $5 million payment from the city into the escrow account occurred yesterday, Sept. 20, 2016 (defined in the agreement as the third anniversary date),†said Assistant City Manager Tom Duensing. “The NHL can withdraw the final $5 million payment from the escrow account on or after Sept. 20, 2017 (defined in the agreement as the fourth anniversary date).â€

Council held a special meeting Sept. 20, but went directly into executive session for, “consideration and possible action regarding final escrow payment to the (NHL).â€

“This final payment satisfies the original agreement between the City and the NHL,†Duensing said. “No additional city payments are due under this agreement.â€"

Source: http://www.glendalestar.com/news/article_f765d102-8430-11e6-91e9-07bcaa2a7f04.html

NALA +9