Phoenix CXVII: Waiting to Exhale (or see shovels in the ground)

[Tom ServoMST3K]

My understanding is they may have fluked their way into another sweethart deal situation.

 

[Slashers98]

My understanding is they may have fluked their way into another sweethart deal situation.

What would be that deal?

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

What would be that deal?

Working with a university that just decuded to enter the top flight of american college hockey. At least thats the only way forward I see, unless they can hold out until the Suns build a new arena and can jump on that wagon for the cheap.

Edit: this is wild speculation, but if the team is to survive, its the only way.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

TFP, use your own intuition and look at what the rest of the league is showing with respect to overall revenues, expenses etc.

When I said, "Show your work," I was serious... just as serious as every higher math teacher I ever had was when I showed a solution to a problem that short-circuited the proof required. It didn't matter that my answer was right - I had to show the steps to how I got it.

Sure, the Coyotes are losing money. But I'm over the whole "intuit your way to the answer!" methodology, particularly here. Show me your work. If I want unsubstantiated claims pulled out of thin air, I'll watch tonight's debate.

In the larger scheme of things, Reinsdorf's cameo was without consequence and he was never a serious bidder. I dont think Reinsdorf was any more than wishful thinking by the league, Bettman dragged him in out of desperation. He didn't have the money nor the interest in this franchise. Indeed, he wanted to hand if off to his son, Michael.

This is pretty much how I interpreted it, too. I think he had the money, but not the interest. It was a "rabbit out of the hat" by Bettman that got wiped out by Balsillie.

Working with a university that just decuded to enter the top flight of american college hockey. At least thats the only way forward I see, unless they can hold out until the Suns build a new arena and can jump on that wagon for the cheap.

Edit: this is wild speculation, but if the team is to survive, its the only way.

I don't think it's going to happen - an arena with ASU, that is. The Coyotes definitely are hitching their wagon to ASU's D1 star, but I think the only credible - and indeed, workable - arena option for them on the east side is a deal with one of the handful of tribal groups who are still in play at the moment.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

When I said, "Show your work," I was serious... just as serious as every higher math teacher I ever had was when I showed a solution to a problem that short-circuited the proof required. It didn't matter that my answer was right - I had to show the steps to how I got it.

Sure, the Coyotes are losing money. But I'm over the whole "intuit your way to the answer!" methodology, particularly here. Show me your work. If I want unsubstantiated claims pulled out of thin air, I'll watch tonight's debate.



This is pretty much how I interpreted it, too. I think he had the money, but not the interest. It was a "rabbit out of the hat" by Bettman that got wiped out by Balsillie.



I don't think it's going to happen - an arena with ASU, that is. The Coyotes definitely are hitching their wagon to ASU's D1 star, but I think the only credible - and indeed, workable - arena option for them on the east side is a deal with one of the handful of tribal groups who are still in play at the moment.

The tribal deal is a bandwagon ive been on for a very long time. It makes too much sense to actually happen. The asu deal is just dumb enough to become part of the saga

My non facesious point being that the ideal time for a tribal deal has long sinse passed.

 

[TheLegend]

So Reinsdorf was going to get the lease reworked anyways. Or at least he was not going to buy the team as is.

My understanding is an offer along these lines was not going to be offered to Moyes, hence he reached out to Balsillie and Rodier and here we are in part CXVII today.

At the end of the day, it showed that even with an arena paid by Glendale was not enough on it's own to keep the team viable. So how can anyone realistically think that a new arena somewhere else in the valley will solve their problems.

Hence why I think this new arena talk is just a dangling carrot. Where it leads the mule to remains to be seen.

My understanding is Rodier came to Moyes after it became apparent Moyes was wanting to walk away from the team.

Beasley was willing to talk to Shumway (nee Moyes) about a CFD or some other form of revenue stream if Moyes was willing to show the need for it by opening the team's books. But Moyes walked away from that. He'd already taken out the $80 million loan using the Coyotes as collateral and that would have been exposed (even though it came out in the BK anyway).

But even that was considered a token offer in many circles because Beasley was considered to favor Reinsdorf (and Kaites) no matter what.

Holy cow.... talk about a deja vu week this week.

 

[mesamonster]

When I said, "Show your work," I was serious... just as serious as every higher math teacher I ever had was when I showed a solution to a problem that short-circuited the proof required. It didn't matter that my answer was right - I had to show the steps to how I got it.

Sure, the Coyotes are losing money. But I'm over the whole "intuit your way to the answer!" methodology, particularly here. Show me your work. If I want unsubstantiated claims pulled out of thin air, I'll watch tonight's debate.



This is pretty much how I interpreted it, too. I think he had the money, but not the interest. It was a "rabbit out of the hat" by Bettman that got wiped out by Balsillie.



I don't think it's going to happen - an arena with ASU, that is. The Coyotes definitely are hitching their wagon to ASU's D1 star, but I think the only credible - and indeed, workable - arena option for them on the east side is a deal with one of the handful of tribal groups who are still in play at the moment.

I have repeatedly shown my numbers in many previous threads, go back and look! As for you, I haven`t seen your numbers that would suggest something different than what I have said! Oh , I forgot, you are relying on Tony the mouthpiece who claims something else. Lets see your numbers TFP? What I do know is that this team is a money loser year in year out, I say it is north of $15MM every year, that is not a sustainable model particularly in a b building that even Tony says is inadequate for their future! Just saying!

 

[Glacial]

Unfortunately, Phoenix is none of those...

Phoenix ranks #3 as being a city that almost never wins a sports Championship...

Suns (close two times, no championship) and Diamondbacks (World Series 2001), Cardinals (1947 Championship, Conference Champion/Super Bowl appearance 2008, Conference Champion 2015) and not much else...

Source: http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/8-...he-most-miserable-sports-fans.html/?a=viewall

Phoenix doesn't have too much to show for it, but that 2001 World Series is regarded as one of the best (usually mentioned alongside 1960, 1991).

Cleveland was long-suffering til the Cavaliers won it all this year. The Browns are the perennial doormat of the NFL and the Indians were like the Cubs Jr. in their championship & playoff drought. They're 2nd in MLB for longest time since their last championship (that's why some are hoping for a Cubs-Indians World Series), were out for a while of contention for a while before getting to 2 World Series in 3 years in the '90s and their next chance was Game 7 of the ALCS in 2007. Cleveland has had their teams since 1901, 1946 (actually 1999 with the records going back to 1946), 1970. Phoenix is a relatively young market (among those with all 4 big leagues): 1968, 1988, 1996, 1998.

^^^ ... not so fast Llama... the areas very 1st Pro Sports Team (formed in 1967) was none other than the Phoenix Roadrunners who won back-back WHL Championships in 1973 & 1974. Lester Patrick Trophy. Joined the WHA the following season, roster pretty much intact & highly competitive for their first 2
seasons. Money problems however. Gone after the 3rd.

I wonder, if the Jets came to Phoenix and were named the Roadrunners, if they would've ended up on the same exact path with the same woes as the Coyotes. It's the Southwest and they went with being wily Coyotes rather than teflon Roadrunners, thus all the boulders that fall on them and ACME schemes that blow up in their face.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

As for you, I haven`t seen your numbers that would suggest something different than what I have said!

I don't have any numbers. And I'd gladly believe yours... if you had any methodology beyond intuition or guesstimation to back them up.

Oh , I forgot, you are relying on Tony the mouthpiece who claims something else.

Save the strawman for someone else. I'm trying to mine information out of this thread, not spew or read talking points. I'm looking for context, not trying to win debate points.

 

[mouser]

I have put my back of the envelope numbers out repeatedly in many previous posts! While I may be missing a few figures I am certain that the annual losses fall solidly in the loss category. Those who dispute my figures have only pointed to the quotes of management that state the losses are not what you think, with no corroborating evidence to support such a claim. When pressed on the details that show minimal losses they have failed to show how the numbers add up to their supposed small loss figure. Show the numbers on that side, I have shown mine.

Well, then it should be easy for you to copy/paste one of those previous posts with numbers.

 

[Slot]

I have repeatedly shown my numbers in many previous threads, go back and look! As for you, I haven`t seen your numbers that would suggest something different than what I have said! Oh , I forgot, you are relying on Tony the mouthpiece who claims something else. Lets see your numbers TFP? What I do know is that this team is a money loser year in year out, I say it is north of $15MM every year, that is not a sustainable model particularly in a b building that even Tony says is inadequate for their future! Just saying!

Just to add, no one has seen the actual numbers but a lot of inferences have been made from multiple sources including the BK, the then new arena lease with its healthy subsidy, the FIG and later on the NHL loan numbers and the numbers that IA was required to give to the city.

None of those numbers have given the impression that the team is in good financial shape.

$62,803,078 Total Player Salary 16-17

13350 Average Attendance 15-16
$45 Average Ticket Price 14-15
= Ticket Revenue ~$25MM

Already a deficit of $38MM

How much does the coaching staff, practice facility, advertising and front office staff cost?

I figure you've got about $45-50MM to make up to cover all of that (minimum). How much do they get in revenue sharing, merchandising and TV deal money? The loss of the $15MM AMF has got to be hurting.

 

[Glacial]

Yes, understood. The articles ambiguous, equivocal. He's telling everyone or anyone who's interested not to draw any negative conclusions & to essentially just forget about what LeBlanc & others have said in the past with respect to Deadlines. He's walking it all back for them under the guise of objective journalism & reporting. That things are in flux. All generalizations. A lightweight's attempt at a cosmetic job. No question in my mind after all Ive seen written by him that this guy is in IceArizonas pocket. That far from objective reporting, this is IA messaging, framing yet another new strategy, a sales job. Cryptic talking points which we'll be reading~hearing for some time to come absent any real reportage from a real journalist who goes on the hunt looking to verify that which to date has been impossible to verify.

Respect as a journalist isn't a word that comes to mind when I read a Craig Morgan article. His articles come across as falling into a range spanning useful idiot to outright shill. He feels like an undercover publicist more than anything.

For our AZ residents, how is the journalism towards the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Suns? Is it as absent, as vapid as Coyotes coverage or can it at least pass for journalism (even if C- journalism)?

It's been a while so it's difficult to keep the details in chronological order.

If I had to characterize Reinsdorf, he seems like the kind of person who deals on a one on one basis and doesn't go into playing games with negotiating. He had his MLB franchise playing their spring training in Glendale and owned a home there. His son Michael had owned an turned around an ECHL franchise in Stockton and it all looked as if Michael would be the one taking control had he ended up buying the franchise.

It's hard to say because nothing in MLB since he bought the White Sox in 1981 has been anything approaching a circus like the Coyotes have been. He was a hardliner in the 1994-95 labor dispute (which wrecked the Expos and blew what could've been a good playoff run for the White Sox), likewise with the 1998-99 NBA labor dispute, though in the 21st Century, he's been more quiet, less of an active force (and seems to have recognised the fallout his stance caused for the sport and they were fortunate the PED-fueled home run races a few years later attracted so much interest). It's unclear who the contraction schemers were around the turn of the century (it was a strongarm negotiation tactic for the first labor agreement since the rancorous 1995 one). I believe Steinbrenner was one. The only thing I can remember giving insight into how he navigates scenes with many moving parts was the MLB commissioner succession. IIRC, he was basically part of the NHL BoG vis-a-vis owners with the most sway with Selig and he wanted someone else in there, not Manfred, but lost out and just backed down, consigning he will lost his influence as he didn't have that standing with Manfred as he had with Selig. In terms of how he runs the Sox & Bulls, he is loyal to a fault and while he is frequently described as someone who really wants the team to win (the Sox going for it year after year every year this century speaks to that), based on his actions, loyalty > desire to win. Just look at any Bulls fan forum and read their grievances against the organization for proof of this.

Reinsdorf wanted one of his sons to continue running the Bulls after he passes and to sell the Sox (Bulls seem to be the more profitable one). Reinsdorf is more of a baseball fan than basketball fan though (thus his quote about that 1 World Series championship meaning more to him than the 6 NBA championships combined). His other son suddenly passed last year. It's hard to say how much interest, how long Reinsdorf might've been a theoretical Coyotes owner. Maybe he would've run away when he saw the team's debt and the NHL controlling whether the team stays or goes anywhere (even to places like Seattle), which would take the option of flipping the team (relocate and sell) off the table. He does strike me as someone who wouldn't want to participate in a circus, especially when the team's value makes it not remotely worth the hassle. I can't picture Reinsdorf-run Coyotes having the same path, the same interactions as it has with the clown show. His son? I don't know anything about him other than in the early 2000s, IIRC he was involved in some questionable venture, I think in DC (enough to make me relieved he would be running the Bulls and not the Sox).

 

[Glacial]

This is pretty much how I interpreted it, too. I think he had the money, but not the interest. It was a "rabbit out of the hat" by Bettman that got wiped out by Balsillie.

Reinsdorf owns the Bulls & White Sox. Money to buy and run the Coyotes was never in question. His tolerance of a money sinkhole, to wallpaper that abyss with Benjamins, was the question, not to mention all the drama around it. He seems to run teams, funding them on their own revenue streams, not putting too much of his own money in unless he really believes they can go far in the playoffs that year (as much as he wants to win, he's not like Illitch with the Tigers, putting his money where his desire is).

 

[The Feckless Puck]

For our AZ residents, how is the journalism towards the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Suns? Is it as absent, as vapid as Coyotes coverage or can it at least pass for journalism (even if C- journalism)?

It's definitely as vapid, but there's a whole lot more volume for the Cardinals, especially these days as it seems (or seemed, up until last night) that it is the only franchise that appears to have a clue about what it's doing.

But if you're looking for Pulitzer-quality work, Arizona is not the place you should be looking.

 

[XX]

For our AZ residents, how is the journalism towards the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Suns? Is it as absent, as vapid as Coyotes coverage or can it at least pass for journalism (even if C- journalism)?

Local coverage is terrible. If there's anything well written or remotely critical, it's usually from someone on the national stage. I consider both Coyotes beat writers to be unprofessional and overly soft, even by valley standards.

 

[mesamonster]

Well, then it should be easy for you to copy/paste one of those previous posts with numbers.

Ok, here is a snapshot of the Income statement:

REVENUES:
Ticket revenues $20MM
Concessions and merchandise $2.5MM
Suite/premium revenues $10.2MM
Local broadcast revenues $4.5MM
NHL broadcast &enterprises $25MM
NHL Revenue sharing $20MM
Ticket taxes ($2.2MM)

Total Revenues $80MM

EXPENSES (hockey)

Player salaries $63MM
Coaching salaries $7.0MM
Scouting operations $2.5MM
Farm team operations $4.5MM
Media Relations $0.8MM
Travel expense $7.5MM
Equipment/training $1.4MM


Total Hockey expenses $78.48MM


Business Expense:


Finance and Admin. $3.1MM
Ticket sales $2.4MM
Fan development $0.38M
Advertising and promotion $3.6MM
Suite Sale dep. $0.75M
Corporate sales rep. $0.80M
Sales servicing Dep. $1.3MM
Community Relations $0.30M
Broadcast department $2.3MM
Business operations $.050M


Total Business Expense $12.97MM


Other:

Ownership expense $2.5MM
League expenses $3.9MM
Other management expense $4.2MM


Total other $10.6MM

Total Expenses $102.05MM

Operating profit/loss ( $22.5MM)


AEG lease expense $.050M
Interest expense $12MM
Depreciation and amort, $17MM

Net operating profit/loss ($51.55MM)


--I have omitted all Arena operating expenses AEG will be assuming those.
--ticket revenues are assuming ATP of $60 per seat at an average attendance of 13,433.

This back of the envelope Income statement suggests an operating loss of $22.5MM and a net loss of substantially more!

 

[Llama19]

It's definitely as vapid, but there's a whole lot more volume for the Cardinals, especially these days as it seems (or seemed, up until last night) that it is the only franchise that appears to have a clue about what it's doing.

But if you're looking for Pulitzer-quality work, Arizona is not the place you should be looking.

Republic named Pulitzer finalist for Yarnell [wildfire] coverage

Source: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news...d-pulitzer-finalist-yarnell-coverage/7726419/

However, The Boston Globe won the category on their coverage of the Boston Marathon bombing...

 

[Llama19]

Previously, she was the local 3TV AM reporter...

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Republic named Pulitzer finalist for Yarnell [wildfire] coverage

Source: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news...d-pulitzer-finalist-yarnell-coverage/7726419/

However, The Boston Globe won the category on their coverage of the Boston Marathon bombing...

I don't think Craig Morgan, Sarah McLellan, or any other Valley sportswriter worked the Yarnell story, but this is a nice surprise.

 

[TheLegend]

Republic named Pulitzer finalist for Yarnell [wildfire] coverage

Source: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news...d-pulitzer-finalist-yarnell-coverage/7726419/

However, The Boston Globe won the category on their coverage of the Boston Marathon bombing...

Wildfires and sports are definitely related subject fields.

 

[MaskedSonja]

As a person who has seriously thought about this, I might take a shot this year

I and a couple of others taking a shot at it in the past.....for me I actually had an outline planned when I.....naively.....thought things were coming to an end....until they weren't

There's a lot of material to wade through....just remember to give BoH a kudos in your forward



Might I suggest the title Frozen Coyote?

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

I and a couple of others taking a shot at it in the past.....for me I actually had an outline planned when I.....naively.....thought things were coming to an end....until they weren't

There's a lot of material to wade through....just remember to give BoH a kudos in your forward



Might I suggest the title Frozen Coyote?

If I wrote it, the dedication would go to the BOH board.

The problem I have is that I can't figure out the overarching narrative with the ending still up in the air.

 

[MaskedSonja]

If I wrote it, the dedication would go to the BOH board.

The problem I have is that I can't figure out the overarching narrative with the ending still up in the air.

Yep that was my problem....every time I thought I had it that the end was near.....nope!

Hopefully this resolves itself soon....mind you we've been saying that for two weeks......er never mind......

 

[Slot]

Ok, here is a snapshot of the Income statement:

REVENUES:
Ticket revenues $20MM
Concessions and merchandise $2.5MM
Suite/premium revenues $10.2MM
Local broadcast revenues $4.5MM
NHL broadcast &enterprises $25MM
NHL Revenue sharing $20MM
Ticket taxes ($2.2MM)

Total Revenues $80MM

EXPENSES (hockey)

Player salaries $63MM
Coaching salaries $7.0MM
Scouting operations $2.5MM
Farm team operations $4.5MM
Media Relations $0.8MM
Travel expense $7.5MM
Equipment/training $1.4MM


Total Hockey expenses $78.48MM


Business Expense:


Finance and Admin. $3.1MM
Ticket sales $2.4MM
Fan development $0.38M
Advertising and promotion $3.6MM
Suite Sale dep. $0.75M
Corporate sales rep. $0.80M
Sales servicing Dep. $1.3MM
Community Relations $0.30M
Broadcast department $2.3MM
Business operations $.050M


Total Business Expense $12.97MM


Other:

Ownership expense $2.5MM
League expenses $3.9MM
Other management expense $4.2MM


Total other $10.6MM

Total Expenses $102.05MM

Operating profit/loss ( $22.5MM)


AEG lease expense $.050M
Interest expense $12MM
Depreciation and amort, $17MM

Net operating profit/loss ($51.55MM)


--I have omitted all Arena operating expenses AEG will be assuming those.
--ticket revenues are assuming ATP of $60 per seat at an average attendance of 13,433.

This back of the envelope Income statement suggests an operating loss of $22.5MM and a net loss of substantially more!

Things suddenly got... quiet.

 

[CasualFan]

Things suddenly got... quiet.

Maybe because debating mostly fictional numbers is pointless? IA has not shared their books with the OP so it's more out-of-backside than back-of-napkin.

Season is almost here, glad the Megathread is open for business. I don't want to get into the Reinsdorf chronology thing but I do want to mock Goldwater just a bit: My understanding is that Sitren is now a cut-rate attorney at her own practice doing FOIA and public interest litigation...

Hope everyone is doing well