...snip...
I have to say...the strategy for this particular situation is really pretty solid.
I would not be surprised if IA doesn't come to the table with something, or at least engage in informal settlement discussions before July 31st. If IA is not able to get an injunction, or if the court raises the bond substantially to cover the next year's worth of payments made by the City while under injunction, then I could see IA entering into serious talks to settle with the City.
As I see it, if the City was prepared to pay up to $6M for an arena manager, and right now the City is effectively paying out $8M, that is a $2M float. If something could be worked out such that IA nets $5M or so, with reasonable benchmarks for performance as arena manager, I can't see a $3M difference as something to relocate over.
Frankly, what other play does the City have? I see their true downside as minimal unless IA intends to take this to the wall and seek damages. Given Glendale's poor financial condition, collecting damages in the range IA was throwing around is highly unlikely. Glendale would more likely declare bankruptcy and get out from under any judgment, plus it may be able to extricate itself from Camelback Ranch which is an even bigger financial disaster than GRA and the Coyotes (although for some reason that has stayed out of the press for the most part).
I think i partially agree with this. The city's offer to negotiate anew won't look bad in the eyes of the public when more information gets into the public's hands.
I could do the math again and show you that the city actually is getting about 5M or less from the actual parameters of the AMF, which are not separated out on Glendale's website in a way that makes it easy to see that. So, if Glendale actually budgeted 6M (still too high, IMO), they are really down 4M/yr. Or, put another way, IA has only brought back about 60% of their claims.
But I digress. The reality for COG, as you said, is that there is no down side to this case. Think of the options...
1- Coyotes negotiate a deal with better terms to COG...COG wins.
2- Coyotes can't afford to do that, team leaves. Now SMG runs the arena. Better for COG again. (Truth be told, this is probably best for COG, unless they can get IA to agree to something like 4M/yr with performance clauses.)
3- Case goes to trial, Coyotes win. COG out little.
And again, goyotes, the carrot for coming to the table before the hearings is that whatever emails can be brought into the focus of the case, and thus be made public on trial, might be incredibly bad publicity for IA and/or NHL. Of course, we don't know what they might be. But IA should. In other words, it's the potential PR hit that might bring that to happen.
And, I might add....
Many of us remain convinced that the league has more skin n this game than they are letting on.