OT: Philadelphia 76ers: Taking Our Talents To The Offseason

[Jack Straw]

Also...

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don’t get Insider so I can’t see his rankings but from what I can see it seems that he ranks Doncic #1 in the draft?

Doncic is naturally No. 1, and his 5.8 projected wins above replacement player (WARP) -- what we'd expect him to average over his first five seasons, discounting more distant ones to reward immediate returns -- are in fact the most for any of the 800-plus players I've projected dating back to 2003. Doncic tops Anthony Davis (5.5) for that honor, though it's worth noting that I don't have a projection for LeBron James out of St. Vincent-St. Mary High School or Dwight Howard the following year.

Source:
www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23796252/2018-nba-draft-projections-kevin-pelton-luka-doncic-marvin-bagley-deandre-ayton

Ayton is second at 3.2 WARP. The other outlier vs expectations is Musa at 8 with 2.4 WARP.

 

[Jtown]

Celtics should draft Dragan Bender at No. 3?

pelton needs a new model to predict success. Bender is trending towards one of the worst careers ever.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don’t particularly like Pelton’s projections, but pointing to one thing he got wrong as defining a model’s uselessness is weak or trolling. Your choice.

 

[Jtown]

I don’t particularly like Pelton’s projections, but pointing to one thing he got wrong as defining a model’s uselessness is weak or trolling. Your choice.

I guess you were not paying attention to that year's draft then. Defending a prognosticator when you yourself lack the context is just as weak or trolling as you put it.

 

[Lotusflower]

Bender was a horrible pick on draft day, so was Alex Len tbh, no doubt but there can be a middle ground.

Comparing Doncic to Bender isnt really fruitful as Doncic has polished skills at 19 that Bender didnt have then and doesnt have now.
Different tier of prospect completely.

The Great White Hype factor with Doncic is real but thats not his fault.
Americans and Euros are hungry for that kind of player to come in and impact.

Having watched a lot of his games in Europe I dont see how he doesnt at least make a couple All-star teams.
Goran Dragic is a quality NBA starter and Doncic plays EXACTLY the same style but at a more advanced level at a younger age.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I guess you were not paying attention to that year's draft then. Defending a prognosticator when you yourself lack the context is just as weak or trolling as you put it.

Completely missing the point. Bender is irrelevant. You cannot judge the worth of an entire model that tries to project players of every archetype from a dozen leagues by one prediction. At absolute best, it’s lazy. You’re going full Bayless here.

 

[Jack Straw]

I watched some Real Madrid games and Doncic is extremely impressive. I’d say his all around offensive skills are above any other player in the draft at this point in time. The biggest question I would have would be his defense against NBA players. But he’s such a smart player, and in a switching system like the Sixers, I think he’d be ok.

 

[Jack Straw]

I would also say that it’s wrong to say that Doncic lacks athleticism. What he lacks is explosive quickness, not the same thing.

 

[Jtown]

Top 30 NBA draft prospects by stats, scouting



Pelton: Statistical Big Board 2.0
deangeslow number 1 warp


Pelton: Projecting top 30 NBA prospects

marcus smart number 1 in warp.

Pelton: Wins above replacement ratings for draft candidates

this is just terrible.


Safe to say his warp model is terrible. I use to buy pro basketball Prospectus and it was great , he did a great job of just showing how valuable certain players are. But in terms of predictive analytics he may the worst.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Source:
www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23796252/2018-nba-draft-projections-kevin-pelton-luka-doncic-marvin-bagley-deandre-ayton

Ayton is second at 3.2 WARP. The other outlier vs expectations is Musa at 8 with 2.4 WARP.

What’s your opinion on including AAU stats?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

What’s your opinion on including AAU stats?

I don’t know enough about AAU to pick apart the methods they use to incorporate this specific data and I strongly prefer saying that than talking out of my ass. For example, I know of one major model that uses Opposition-Adjusted Rate Stats as part of their AAU factors. There are probably 10 (or less) people in the world that can tell you if those make sense. What I can say is that I think trying is a necessary evil.

The way the college game is going, I trust the info that we’re gathering less and less without even getting into the sample size restrictions, even tossing out injuries like MPJ. Take Simmons for example. I remember we had a discussion about his defense and how it would translate. There’s no way to accurately quantify the effect of Johnny Jones going full Boeheim. Even if you thought you had one, you couldn’t get enough data for athletes of Simmons’ caliber and size to check correlation.

What makes the most sense to me as a complete outsider is checking to see whether specific Strengths/Weaknesses that you believe may be Swing Skills in the pros translate through every level you can find.

 

[FLYguy3911]

What makes the most sense to me as a complete outsider is checking to see whether specific Strengths/Weaknesses that you believe may be Swing Skills in the pros translate through every level you can find.

Yeah. I wish Pelton published the breakdown of the stats he used to get his projected WARP. He explains some in the write ups but not in the others. Like Tatum graded out like shit last year. Could we have seen this coming?

On another note I haven’t seen a model that grades Lonnie Walker anywhere near a lottery pick. I want to like him but he’s all projection at this point.

 

[Rebels57]

Bender was a horrible pick on draft day, so was Alex Len tbh, no doubt but there can be a middle ground.

Comparing Doncic to Bender isnt really fruitful as Doncic has polished skills at 19 that Bender didnt have then and doesnt have now.
Different tier of prospect completely.

The Great White Hype factor with Doncic is real but thats not his fault.
Americans and Euros are hungry for that kind of player to come in and impact.

Having watched a lot of his games in Europe I dont see how he doesnt at least make a couple All-star teams.
Goran Dragic is a quality NBA starter and Doncic plays EXACTLY the same style but at a more advanced level at a younger age.

I was gonna say..Doncic is just a better Dragic.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yeah. I wish Pelton published the breakdown of the stats he used to get his projected WARP. He explains some in the write ups but not in the others. Like Tatum graded out like **** last year. Could we have seen this coming?

On another note I haven’t seen a model that grades Lonnie Walker anywhere near a lottery pick. I want to like him but he’s all projection at this point.

I missed so badly on Tatum that I went back and rewatched the same things I did before the draft and I still don't see it. I don't know if he wasn't comfortable in that system or hurt or what but he didn't have the explosion he had even in Summer League. O'Connor had him at 1 on his board, so it's not like no one saw it. I guess I'm just going to miss on those guys.

I haven't jumped too deeply into Walker because it feels like they have no real interest, but that's my impression as well. I want to, but the tea leaves seem to be saying 10+26 for Bridges or a move into the Top 5, assuming no Leonard trade.

 

[The Madrigal]

I missed so badly on Tatum that I went back and rewatched the same things I did before the draft and I still don't see it. I don't know if he wasn't comfortable in that system or hurt or what but he didn't have the explosion he had even in Summer League. O'Connor had him at 1 on his board, so it's not like no one saw it. I guess I'm just going to miss on those guys.

I haven't jumped too deeply into Walker because it feels like they have no real interest, but that's my impression as well. I want to, but the tea leaves seem to be saying 10+26 for Bridges or a move into the Top 5, assuming no Leonard trade.

I'm a Duke fan and Tatum looked better with Boston in the playoffs this year than he ever did with Duke. He just didn't show the same type the burst and high end athleticism at Duke where he was almost strictly a jump shooter.

 

[Embiid]

The workout that may transform the franchise

The Celtics were informed that Tatum was under the weather before he went through a second pre-draft workout for them last year. The Duke forward had already done one workout in Los Angeles in front of some of Boston's basketball staff

According to Gotham, Tatum put on a "clinic" in his second workout.
"Some of the best shooting I've ever seen," Gotham said.

The Celtics scouts had long liked Tatum — a star in his high-school class — but weren't sure of him during his lone season at Duke. The team had some doubts about his three-point shooting before the workout. He convinced them otherwise.

It's hard not to view Tatum as the focal point of the Celtics' rebuild. The then-19-year-old wowed in his rookie season with the utter ease with which he scored the ball. Some Celtics staffers have compared him to a young Pierce.

The Celtics have several intriguing young players. Rozier had a breakout playoff campaign and looked the part of a starting point guard. Brown may have All-Star potential. Tatum's ceiling is different — he may have MVP potential. It's not hard to imagine him slowly adding different skills to become a complete package.

Tatum showed it all in the postseason. In a 50-second span in the biggest game of his young career, Tatum crammed a dunk on LeBron James' head and then hit a step-back three
.
ESPN's Zach Lowe wrote that the Celtics value Tatum so highly that they may not trade him straight up for Kawhi Leonard. There are mitigating factors — injuries, contract situations — but it's nonetheless a hint at Tatum's worth to the Celtics

How the Celtics pulled off one of the greatest rebuilds ever to become the team that should terrify the NBA
​

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

For the weeks leading up to the draft, i've been convinced that it'd be these 9 players who would be off the board by the time the Sixers pick at 10:
-Ayton
-Doncic
-Bagley
-Porter Jr
-Bamba
-Jackson Jr
-Carter Jr
-Young
-Mikal Bridges

However i've been skimming NBA draft twitter pretty religiously over the last couple days and i've picked up on a recurring rumor that Kevin Knox could possibly go top 10... probably to the Knicks, it seems. And if that's the case, i think Mikal Bridges to the Sixers is all but a lock.

I don't see them trading up for Doncic, they don't need another ball-dominant guard. And Porter Jr isn't going to be falling as far as some people seem to think he will.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

In 5 years, people will look back at this draft and wonder what the f*** people were thinking.

 

[Ruck Over]

In 5 years, people will look back at this draft and wonder what the **** people were thinking.

It won't take people 5 years to be critical of the decisions made during this draft. E.g. - last year's draft.

 

[Jtown]

I'm a Duke fan and Tatum looked better with Boston in the playoffs this year than he ever did with Duke. He just didn't show the same type the burst and high end athleticism at Duke where he was almost strictly a jump shooter.

Duke guys are hard to evaluate much like Dean Smith UNC players. Tatum and Issac were the two acc players that really stood out to me and as the season went on looked more and more like legitimate nba prospects. They could create their own shot, finish at teh basket and had nba positions. Imo leading up to the draft I was fully confident that Boston was going to select Tatum at 1 if they could not trade the pick. Everyone knew they were not goinig to go for another PG so it was obvious TATum was the guy.

I will never forgive Colangelo for that stupid trade for as long as I live.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

This kid is going to be a complete stud. Don’t sell your Fultz stock.

 

[Jtown]

So sixers going into the draft without a GM. Can anyone recall this ever happening before?

 

[Lotusflower]

Sixers fans be like: "Fultz is a bust!" After like 15 games played....
but 2 yrs of Okafor stinking up the joint: "He deserves another chance! He's still got potential!!"

 

[Ruck Over]

Sixers fans be like: "Fultz is a bust!" After like 15 games played....
but 2 yrs of Okafor stinking up the joint: "He deserves another chance! He's still got potential!!"

Who else is going to average a 20/10 night rolling out of bed? Elite offense