Phil Kessel

[Daisy Jane]

why does the MLB keep AVG when OBP is far superior? because people cant let go of the past.

Plus minus is not relative. You could be in the middle of a line switch, a bad giveaway and someone scores and you get a -.

People like you, whos opinions should be taken with a grain of salt, obsess over meaningless stats just to strengthen your consistently weak argument.

i think the only time plus/minus should be relevant is when it is incredibly high (so it's a good thing, if everything else surrounding it makes sense) or if it's incredibly low.

 

[MrLegend28*]

i think the only time plus/minus should be relevant is when it is incredibly high (so it's a good thing, if everything else surrounding it makes sense) or if it's incredibly low.

but even then, Ovi was a -30 last yr and pocketed, 50 goals? (i have him in fantasy but i forget lol). Would you turn down those 50 goals? +/- doesnt take PP's into account and a powerplay goal is just as valuable as even strength. Its a dumb stat when stats were basic back in the day. Like avg in baseball, people don't wanna let it go. Fear of change. Its also why analytical data is frowned upon because people hate change.

 

[achtungbaby]

but even then, Ovi was a -30 last yr and pocketed, 50 goals? (i have him in fantasy but i forget lol). Would you turn down those 50 goals? +/- doesnt take PP's into account and a powerplay goal is just as valuable as even strength. Its a dumb stat when stats were basic back in the day. Like avg in baseball, people don't wanna let it go. Fear of change. Its also why analytical data is frowned upon because people hate change.

Depends on the price and you have to take it with everything else. Having an explosive goal scoring winger does a lot of things for your team, but if you don't have the proper pieces to surround him with it's useless.

 

[King85Kong]

Jesus how many times does +- have to be shown to be a flawed stat by itself?
How anyone can defend our first line when it comes to defense is beyond me. They gave up the most goals of any line in the NHL. Something needs to change if it continues this way.

 

[Bullseye]

Jesus how many times does +- have to be shown to be a flawed stat by itself?
How anyone can defend our first line when it comes to defense is beyond me. They gave up the most goals of any line in the NHL. Something needs to change if it continues this way.

Ya, how in the world did Kadri and Fraser both lead the Leafs in +/- the year before?

 

[King85Kong]

Ya, how in the world did Kadri and Fraser both lead the Leafs in +/- the year before?

Fraser the all-world defenseman with his +- numbers.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Can't believe I still have to say this, plus minus when combined with QOC paints a powerful picture.

When it came to Fraser's +15, I agree, all stats in that shortened season should be views with an asterisk, and to add to it he also achieved it against low QOC that year.

Is this the context you were referring to? Did I really need to explain this?

Actually, I've read that tests of the QoC stat has shown that it's not a good stat to draw any kind of conclusions from as the differences are just too small over the course of a season.

I used to rely heavily on QoC, but according to those that really know these numbers that might have been a mistake.

 

[Jeebs]

QoC is a flawed stat.

+/- is a flawed stat.

Combining the two does not create a strong argument.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Actually, I've read that tests of the QoC stat has shown that it's not a good stat to draw any kind of conclusions from as the differences are just too small over the course of a season.

I used to rely heavily on QoC, but according to those that really know these numbers that might have been a mistake.

Not sure why they would be incorrect, maybe it is to fit a narrative one wants to push.

On the Leafs it is quite accurate. Dion and Gunnarson last year faced the toughest assignments nightly on this Defence pair, it was accurately reflected in their QOC. No one would disagree with this.

There is no use discussing anything with anyone, if one wants to pick and choose what to dismiss, QOC, plus-minus, or even QOT.

I see all as part of the picture. The more information, the more accurate a picture it paints.

 

[ULF_55]

I like Phil, and I like that he showed some fire this year with regards to losing. I thought he stepped up and I liked that he was lipping off some more. I actually thought his lumberjack was great. I'm not a huge proponent of fighting, and personally I'd rather not get into a fight, but if I did and it was against someone overwhelmingly superior to me I'd use a axe to even the playing field if one was handy (if the fight was not endorsed, initiated, or welcomed by me).

With that blurb out of the way, I do think it is important to look beyond mere points unless we believe the following is a true reflection, in order, of the 20 best defensemen in the NHL.

Rank|Player|Team|Pos|Games|Goals|Assists|Points
1|Erik Karlsson|OTT|D|82|20|54|74
2|Duncan Keith|CHI|D|79|6|55|61
3|Shea Weber|NSH|D|79|23|33|56
4|Victor Hedman|TBL|D|75|13|42|55
5|P.K. Subban|MTL|D|82|10|43|53
6|Keith Yandle|PHX|D|82|8|45|53
7|Alex Pietrangelo|STL|D|81|8|43|51
8|James Wisniewski|CBJ|D|75|7|44|51
9|Niklas Kronwall|DET|D|79|8|41|49
10|Brent Burns|SJS|D|69|22|26|48
11|Mark Giordano|CGY|D|64|14|33|47
12|Matt Niskanen|PIT|D|81|10|36|46
13|Kevin Shattenkirk|STL|D|81|10|35|45
14|Oliver Ekman-Larsson|PHX|D|80|15|29|44
15|Andrej Sekera|CAR|D|74|11|33|44
16|Mark Streit|PHI|D|82|10|34|44
17|Ryan McDonagh|NYR|D|77|14|29|43
18|Ryan Suter|MIN|D|82|8|35|43
19|Andrei Markov|MTL|D|81|7|36|43
20|Marek Zidlicky|NJD|D|81|12|30|42

Some might want to argue defense and forward are two different things, but then we'd have to venture into roles played by defensemen and forwards. What if the forward was used in a defensive role or the defenseman used in an offensive role?

What if the forward was used to blunt the attack of the best forwards and defensemen in the league, maybe then he should be rated higher than a forward that scores more points than he does? What if a line allows no goals against, while another line gives up as many goals as it produces?

If we are saying Kessel is a great player because of where he ends up in the scoring race, regardless of other parts of his game, we can do the same with any other skater in the NHL.

I maintain Kessel has not peaked as a player, even if he's peaked offensively.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I like Phil, and I like that he showed some fire this year with regards to losing. I thought he stepped up and I liked that he was lipping off some more. I actually thought his lumberjack was great. I'm not a huge proponent of fighting, and personally I'd rather not get into a fight, but if I did and it was against someone overwhelmingly superior to me I'd use a axe to even the playing field if one was handy (if the fight was not endorsed, initiated, or welcomed by me).

With that blurb out of the way, I do think it is important to look beyond mere points unless we believe the following is a true reflection, in order, of the 20 best defensemen in the NHL.

Rank|Player|Team|Pos|Games|Goals|Assists|Points
1|Erik Karlsson|OTT|D|82|20|54|74
2|Duncan Keith|CHI|D|79|6|55|61
3|Shea Weber|NSH|D|79|23|33|56
4|Victor Hedman|TBL|D|75|13|42|55
5|P.K. Subban|MTL|D|82|10|43|53
6|Keith Yandle|PHX|D|82|8|45|53
7|Alex Pietrangelo|STL|D|81|8|43|51
8|James Wisniewski|CBJ|D|75|7|44|51
9|Niklas Kronwall|DET|D|79|8|41|49
10|Brent Burns|SJS|D|69|22|26|48
11|Mark Giordano|CGY|D|64|14|33|47
12|Matt Niskanen|PIT|D|81|10|36|46
13|Kevin Shattenkirk|STL|D|81|10|35|45
14|Oliver Ekman-Larsson|PHX|D|80|15|29|44
15|Andrej Sekera|CAR|D|74|11|33|44
16|Mark Streit|PHI|D|82|10|34|44
17|Ryan McDonagh|NYR|D|77|14|29|43
18|Ryan Suter|MIN|D|82|8|35|43
19|Andrei Markov|MTL|D|81|7|36|43
20|Marek Zidlicky|NJD|D|81|12|30|42

Some might want to argue defense and forward are two different things, but then we'd have to venture into roles played by defensemen and forwards. What if the forward was used in a defensive role or the defenseman used in an offensive role?

What if the forward was used to blunt the attack of the best forwards and defensemen in the league, maybe then he should be rated higher than a forward that scores more points than he does? What if a line allows no goals against, while another line gives up as many goals as it produces?

If we are saying Kessel is a great player because of where he ends up in the scoring race, regardless of other parts of his game, we can do the same with any other skater in the NHL.

I maintain Kessel has not peaked as a player, even if he's peaked offensively.

Well said!

I don't have anything to add to this post.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I like Phil, and I like that he showed some fire this year with regards to losing. I thought he stepped up and I liked that he was lipping off some more. I actually thought his lumberjack was great. I'm not a huge proponent of fighting, and personally I'd rather not get into a fight, but if I did and it was against someone overwhelmingly superior to me I'd use a axe to even the playing field if one was handy (if the fight was not endorsed, initiated, or welcomed by me).

With that blurb out of the way, I do think it is important to look beyond mere points unless we believe the following is a true reflection, in order, of the 20 best defensemen in the NHL.

Rank|Player|Team|Pos|Games|Goals|Assists|Points
1|Erik Karlsson|OTT|D|82|20|54|74
2|Duncan Keith|CHI|D|79|6|55|61
3|Shea Weber|NSH|D|79|23|33|56
4|Victor Hedman|TBL|D|75|13|42|55
5|P.K. Subban|MTL|D|82|10|43|53
6|Keith Yandle|PHX|D|82|8|45|53
7|Alex Pietrangelo|STL|D|81|8|43|51
8|James Wisniewski|CBJ|D|75|7|44|51
9|Niklas Kronwall|DET|D|79|8|41|49
10|Brent Burns|SJS|D|69|22|26|48
11|Mark Giordano|CGY|D|64|14|33|47
12|Matt Niskanen|PIT|D|81|10|36|46
13|Kevin Shattenkirk|STL|D|81|10|35|45
14|Oliver Ekman-Larsson|PHX|D|80|15|29|44
15|Andrej Sekera|CAR|D|74|11|33|44
16|Mark Streit|PHI|D|82|10|34|44
17|Ryan McDonagh|NYR|D|77|14|29|43
18|Ryan Suter|MIN|D|82|8|35|43
19|Andrei Markov|MTL|D|81|7|36|43
20|Marek Zidlicky|NJD|D|81|12|30|42

Some might want to argue defense and forward are two different things, but then we'd have to venture into roles played by defensemen and forwards. What if the forward was used in a defensive role or the defenseman used in an offensive role?

What if the forward was used to blunt the attack of the best forwards and defensemen in the league, maybe then he should be rated higher than a forward that scores more points than he does? What if a line allows no goals against, while another line gives up as many goals as it produces?

If we are saying Kessel is a great player because of where he ends up in the scoring race, regardless of other parts of his game, we can do the same with any other skater in the NHL.

I maintain Kessel has not peaked as a player, even if he's peaked offensively.

Yeah of course. I'm not sure if there's anyone who thinks you can just sort by points produced to determine value whether it's for forwards of defencemen. Obviously there's a lot more to it than that. Same goes for any single statistic like plus-minus for example which seems to be the latest rage for some.

I'm not sure if Kessel has peaked or not. I would think he can be better both offensively and defensively. That said, he's awfully good as it is and I maintain he is well down on the list of players to worry about. He earns his pay, if everyone else did we'd be a top contender considering our payroll is as high as it can be.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Mark Fraser - I'm genuinely curious - I wasn't around to watch the games when he put up that ridiculous plus-minus number. Can anyone offer an explanation of how he did it? Unless there is reasonable explanation that season stands as an excellent example of how useless plus-minus numbers can be.

 

[Menzinger]

Mark Fraser - I'm genuinely curious - I wasn't around to watch the games when he put up that ridiculous plus-minus number. Can anyone offer an explanation of how he did it? Unless there is reasonable explanation that season stands as an excellent example of how useless plus-minus numbers can be.

Your last sentence explains it. The Fraser stat that year was pure luck/randomness

 

[Gary Nylund]

Your last sentence explains it. The Fraser stat that year was pure luck/randomness

Yeah pure luck was my best guess also. I just wondered it anyone had another theory. But if it was just luck, then LOL at anyone using plus-minus numbers to prove anything.

 

[DopeyFish]

Mark Fraser - I'm genuinely curious - I wasn't around to watch the games when he put up that ridiculous plus-minus number. Can anyone offer an explanation of how he did it? Unless there is reasonable explanation that season stands as an excellent example of how useless plus-minus numbers can be.

The answer is simply Nazem Kadri

 

[leafstilldeath*]

Actually, I've read that tests of the QoC stat has shown that it's not a good stat to draw any kind of conclusions from as the differences are just too small over the course of a season.

I used to rely heavily on QoC, but according to those that really know these numbers that might have been a mistake.

QoC is a a very weak statistic. If one really wants to look at a statistic that measures forwards then one should look at QoT.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

The answer is simply Nazem Kadri

Yup. Fraser and Franson both played on a third pairing with Naz absolutely making a killing that season.

If it wasn't for Naz Leafs would not have made the playoffs that season.

 

[ULF_55]

Mark Fraser - I'm genuinely curious - I wasn't around to watch the games when he put up that ridiculous plus-minus number. Can anyone offer an explanation of how he did it? Unless there is reasonable explanation that season stands as an excellent example of how useless plus-minus numbers can be.

IIRC, he played with Franson and they played 3rd. pairing. Same year Kadri played 3rd. line center.

It would be interesting to see how many of their minutes they played together.

However, this isn't a Fraser or Kadri thread so I don't want to go too far OT.

Kessel doesn't face the bottom of other team's rosters as often, so his line is often facing better players. Plus minus can't be used in isolation, but you can use it within a team environment.

Is Hossa a better defensive player than Kane on the Hawks?

Hossa 60 points in 72 games
Kane 69 points in 69 games

Hossa +28 (+211 career)
Kane +7 (+41 career)

And yet, Kane gets all the hype because of his offense, and if you asked around I bet most would say Kane is the better player. Is he or is he just an elite offensive player?


Kessel isn't why the Leafs continue to be a failure (standings aren't subjective).

Kessel was a minus player, Bozak was a plus player. Considering Bozak plays mostly with Kessel, except when he's sent out to take defensive zone face-offs (which means starting in a zone where it is easier to get a minus) how did Kessel pick up his minuses?

van Riemsdyk was a minus player, again playing mostly with Bozak and Kessel.

What contributes to the situation where Bozak is scored upon less than his linemates?

Was there a period of time where Kessel and van Riemsdyk earned those minuses that Bozak did not?

You can't just say Bozak is a better defensive forward than Kessel because of +/-, without understanding how both players achieved that +/-?

 

[Faltorvo]

IIRC, he played with Franson and they played 3rd. pairing. Same year Kadri played 3rd. line center.

It would be interesting to see how many of their minutes they played together.

However, this isn't a Fraser or Kadri thread so I don't want to go too far OT.

Kessel doesn't face the bottom of other team's rosters as often, so his line is often facing better players. Plus minus can't be used in isolation, but you can use it within a team environment.

Is Hossa a better defensive player than Kane on the Hawks?

Hossa 60 points in 72 games
Kane 69 points in 69 games

Hossa +28 (+211 career)
Kane +7 (+41 career)

And yet, Kane gets all the hype because of his offense, and if you asked around I bet most would say Kane is the better player. Is he or is he just an elite offensive player?


Kessel isn't why the Leafs continue to be a failure (standings aren't subjective).

Kessel was a minus player, Bozak was a plus player. Considering Bozak plays mostly with Kessel, except when he's sent out to take defensive zone face-offs (which means starting in a zone where it is easier to get a minus) how did Kessel pick up his minuses?

van Riemsdyk was a minus player, again playing mostly with Bozak and Kessel.

What contributes to the situation where Bozak is scored upon less than his linemates?

Was there a period of time where Kessel and van Riemsdyk earned those minuses that Bozak did not?

You can't just say Bozak is a better defensive forward than Kessel because of +/-, without understanding how both players achieved that +/-?

That line +/- imbalance is easily explained.

Just look at the lines +/- when Kadri and others Cd it.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

IIRC, he played with Franson and they played 3rd. pairing. Same year Kadri played 3rd. line center.

It would be interesting to see how many of their minutes they played together.

However, this isn't a Fraser or Kadri thread so I don't want to go too far OT.

Kessel doesn't face the bottom of other team's rosters as often, so his line is often facing better players. Plus minus can't be used in isolation, but you can use it within a team environment.

Is Hossa a better defensive player than Kane on the Hawks?

Hossa 60 points in 72 games
Kane 69 points in 69 games

Hossa +28 (+211 career)
Kane +7 (+41 career)

And yet, Kane gets all the hype because of his offense, and if you asked around I bet most would say Kane is the better player. Is he or is he just an elite offensive player?


Kessel isn't why the Leafs continue to be a failure (standings aren't subjective).

Kessel was a minus player, Bozak was a plus player. Considering Bozak plays mostly with Kessel, except when he's sent out to take defensive zone face-offs (which means starting in a zone where it is easier to get a minus) how did Kessel pick up his minuses?

van Riemsdyk was a minus player, again playing mostly with Bozak and Kessel.

What contributes to the situation where Bozak is scored upon less than his linemates?

Was there a period of time where Kessel and van Riemsdyk earned those minuses that Bozak did not?

You can't just say Bozak is a better defensive forward than Kessel because of +/-, without understanding how both players achieved that +/-?

From what I have seen, when the 1st line changes Bozak is always the first one to get off the ice leaving Kessel and JVR on ice; especially when that line takes ices the puck

Also, it is a flawed system when one is only looking at one season. That line combo of Bozak-Kessel has been one of the worst lines in NHL in the GA category season after season both with Ron Wilson run and gun hockey AND Carlyle's chasing in the defensive zone hockey.

 

[bunjay]

Kessel was a minus player, Bozak was a plus player. Considering Bozak plays mostly with Kessel, except when he's sent out to take defensive zone face-offs (which means starting in a zone where it is easier to get a minus) how did Kessel pick up his minuses?

van Riemsdyk was a minus player, again playing mostly with Bozak and Kessel.

What contributes to the situation where Bozak is scored upon less than his linemates?

Assuming you're talking about last season the discrepancy is very easy to explain. Bozak missed 20 games. During those 20 games it was almost exclusively Kadri playing on the first line. That line was outscored more while playing with Kadri than while playing with Bozak. Checking the game-by-game stats will support this.

Kadri is a very good young player but he doesn't have a clue how to play in his own zone, turns over the puck frequently, and just plain wasn't ready to face first line matchups.

 

[ULF_55]

From what I have seen, when the 1st line changes Bozak is always the first one to get off the ice leaving Kessel and JVR on ice; especially when that line takes ices the puck

Also, it is a flawed system when one is only looking at one season. That line combo of Bozak-Kessel has been one of the worst lines in NHL in the GA category season after season both with Ron Wilson run and gun hockey AND Carlyle's chasing in the defensive zone hockey.

Actually, the last season is the one I was looking at as things change year over year.

It has been said players improve.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

Actually, the last season is the one I was looking at as things change year over year.

It has been said players improve.

Things change but the marriage of Bozak-Kessel has been fairly consistent year over year.

This improvement in players; about how many years down the road do you expect to see that line not be among the worst lines in the NHL wrt to GA stat?

 

[Purity*]

Mark Fraser - I'm genuinely curious - I wasn't around to watch the games when he put up that ridiculous plus-minus number. Can anyone offer an explanation of how he did it? Unless there is reasonable explanation that season stands as an excellent example of how useless plus-minus numbers can be.

Lots of ice-time with a red-hot Nazem Kadri who was inflating everyone's +/-

He looked like a decent stay-at-home 3rd pairing defensemen. After that horrible head injury vs Boston in the playoffs, he was never the same.