Confirmed Signing with Link: [PHI] Sean Couturier signs extension with the Flyers (8 years, $7.75M AAV)

[Chayos]

This is the modern Bergeron contract. It’s undervalued and about the same cap % or lower. Similar style of player that doesn’t get the recognition as an elite player.

 

[bauer]

okay. He's a more dynamic player. You can think his 2019-2020 season was just a hot streak or his multiple 6 pointers vsPhilly or his 5 goal game were all flukes. Couts isn't capable of producing like that. He's superior in other areas. I'm just saying goal scorers get paid more.

Couts is more than capable of having big point games. most memorable was a 5 point game vs. PIT in the 2018 playoffs while he was playing on a torn MCL.

 

[Rich Nixon]

okay. He's a more dynamic player. You can think his 2019-2020 season was just a hot streak or his multiple 6 pointers vsPhilly or his 5 goal game were all flukes. Couts isn't capable of producing like that. He's superior in other areas. I'm just saying goal scorers get paid more.

I don't know what to make of Zib's 2020 campaign, 41 goals in 57 games is some wild shit. The funny thing to me is, with the exception of that season, the two score goals at essentially the same rate, and Couturier has more points. Let's look at the last 5 seasons, with and without Mika's insane 2019-20 run:

2016-2021:

Couturier: 342 GP, 118G, 286P (.345 goals per game/.836 points per game)
Zibanejad: 323 GP, 136G, 283P (.420 goals per game/.876 points per game)

2016-2021, excluding 2019-20 for both players:

Couturier: 273 GP, 96G, 227P (.352 goals per game/.831 points per game)
Zibanejad: 266 GP, 95G, 208P (.357 goals per game/.782 points per game)

Their goal output throughout the rest of their careers is really similar. Both have broken 30 goals the same number of times (twice). Couturier is a remarkably consistent 25-30g/40-45a type player at this point of his career. I just want to see if Zibanejad's 2019-20 was indeed a fluke or if he can reproduce anything close to that in the next few years. I mean, we've seen Giroux fluctuate from 58 points to 102 points between two years--some guys just do stuff like that. One season does not define a player's abilities or expectations.

I think you're basing a whole lot of this conversation—that Zibanejad is a BIG GOAL SCORER and Couturier isn't—around one year that, as it stands, is a crazy outlier. Oh, and some random games where he popped off for big points against an awful Flyers defense that was puking all over itself. Whatever, Couturier once had a 3G 2A game in the playoffs with a torn MCL (and they still lost!), and a hat trick in his second career playoff game, too. Who cares?

A lot riding on this season for Mika's contract. If he turns in another season par for his career—say, 29 or 31 goals over 82 games—I'm not sure the fact that he shot 20% playing 22 minutes a night over 57 games three years prior is gonna have much impact.

 

[wpgallday1960]

Solid contract. I don't think it is quite the steal some think it is. Fair value for both sides, IMO.

 

[rajuabju]

The AAV is very good. The term is the issue. The flyers bought down the AAV with Term. Will be good for them for the first 5 years, and will start to suck hard last 2 or 3. Its exactly the model of almost every other team.

 

[Fogelhund]

Well, to start, PPG players who are good defensively are pretty rare at 25 let alone 35. But to answer the question, yes there have been plenty. Guys like Thornton, Datsyuk, Sakic, Brindamour, Pavelski, Elias, and Modano come to mind and I'm sure there's a lot more. THe cap is going to start going up again soon so Couts making $7.75m in 8 years from now will probably eat up the same amount of cap space as $6m today. Nobody thinks he's going to be worth all $7.75m when he's 35-36 but he's worth way more now and for the next few years. If he can put up 50 points as a 2C and play a good defensive game for the last 2-3 years of that deal, I'm sure the Flyers can live with that.

I apologize if you missed the context of my post. I was responding to a Bruins fan, and found it to be quite ridiculous that they would propose that no C could be that good in their thirties… given Bergeron and all.

 

[Sasso09]

I don't know what to make of Zib's 2020 campaign, 41 goals in 57 games is some wild shit. The funny thing to me is, with the exception of that season, the two score goals at essentially the same rate, and Couturier has more points. Let's look at the last 5 seasons, with and without Mika's insane 2019-20 run:

2016-2021:

Couturier: 342 GP, 118G, 286P (.345 goals per game/.836 points per game)
Zibanejad: 323 GP, 136G, 283P (.420 goals per game/.876 points per game)

2016-2021, excluding 2019-20 for both players:

Couturier: 273 GP, 96G, 227P (.352 goals per game/.831 points per game)
Zibanejad: 266 GP, 95G, 208P (.357 goals per game/.782 points per game)

Their goal output throughout the rest of their careers is really similar. Both have broken 30 goals the same number of times (twice). Couturier is a remarkably consistent 25-30g/40-45a type player at this point of his career. I just want to see if Zibanejad's 2019-20 was indeed a fluke or if he can reproduce anything close to that in the next few years. I mean, we've seen Giroux fluctuate from 58 points to 102 points between two years--some guys just do stuff like that. One season does not define a player's abilities or expectations.

I think you're basing a whole lot of this conversation—that Zibanejad is a BIG GOAL SCORER and Couturier isn't—around one year that, as it stands, is a crazy outlier. Oh, and some random games where he popped off for big points against an awful Flyers defense that was puking all over itself. Whatever, Couturier once had a 3G 2A game in the playoffs with a torn MCL (and they still lost!), and a hat trick in his second career playoff game, too. Who cares?

A lot riding on this season for Mika's contract. If he turns in another season par for his career—say, 29 or 31 goals over 82 games—I'm not sure the fact that he shot 20% playing 22 minutes a night over 57 games three years prior is gonna have much impact.

This, I'm not at all convinced Zibby is the better goal scorer given equal circumstances, usage and linemates. 5on5 Coots is the better goal scorer and offensive player, Zibby has him in the PP by a wide margin, defensively it doesn't have to be discussed much.

 

[Sasso09]

Solid contract. I don't think it is quite the steal some think it is. Fair value for both sides, IMO.

Imagine schiefele signing this contract RN, you'd consider it a steel right?

Now, imagine a better player than that signing this contract? Not a steal?

 

[Sasso09]

He's an elite scorer and Couts isn't. Elite scorers get paid.

The score goals at the same pace. Coots higher 5on5

 

[wpgallday1960]

Imagine schiefele signing this contract RN, you'd consider it a steel right?

Now, imagine a better player than that signing this contract? Not a steal?

Don’t agree.
Questionable about Couts being a better player. Schiefele is a more productive scorer and over less games. Couts is a better defensive player but Jets need Schiefele’s offence (see Habs series) more.

If Schiefele signed now I would expect $8.5 AAV to be a fair deal.

 

[ponder]

The AAV is nice, the term is not. This contract STARTS in a year, when he’s 29, and he’ll turn 30 just a few months in. He’ll be 37 when this contract ends. Lots of players drop off in their early 30s, there’s a good chance the second half, or even second two-thirds of this deal are bad.

 

[Tripod]

The AAV is nice, the term is not. This contract STARTS in a year, when he’s 29, and he’ll turn 30 just a few months in. He’ll be 37 when this contract ends. Lots of players drop off in their early 30s, there’s a good chance the second half, or even second two-thirds of this deal are bad.

Will it though?

In 3-5 years, the cap will be ion the climb again and teams will ne paying guys like Hayes 7+, Duchene 8 million, Skinner 9+.

 

[pooch]

The AAV is nice, the term is not. This contract STARTS in a year, when he’s 29, and he’ll turn 30 just a few months in. He’ll be 37 when this contract ends. Lots of players drop off in their early 30s, there’s a good chance the second half, or even second two-thirds of this deal are bad.

I dont think so. His game does not rely on speed and quickness and should age fairly well. We'll see.

 

[ponder]

Will it though?

In 3-5 years, the cap will be ion the climb again and teams will ne paying guys like Hayes 7+, Duchene 8 million, Skinner 9+.

I mean, those are all examples of deals that teams very quickly regretted, very strongly. Especially the Skinner deal. IMO those are good examples of “be careful with long term for UFAs, because their game can fall off a cliff in a hurry.”

Also, while the cap was rising very rapidly for awhile after it was first introduced, it had already slowed down pre-COVID. In the 5 years before COVID, it went from $69 mil (in 2014-15) to $81.5 mil (in 2019/20). Up 18.1% over 5 years, or about 3.6% per year. If a guy’s game starts declining with age, his value can start dropping more like 30% per year than 3.6%.

I dont think so. His game does not rely on speed and quickness and should age fairly well. We'll see.

Agreed, I could certainly be wrong. There are players who continue to be high end contributors through their mid and even late 30s. They’re the exception, not the rule, though. At the very least, signing a guy for 8 years, with a deal that kicks in just a few months before he turns 30, is risky.

With that being said, that’s why the AAV is so good. I’m sure the Flyers would have preferred 4-5 years, but that would’ve cost them a much higher AAV.