Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc. [mid-March 2021 edition]

[GKJ]

Halifax’s season ended the other day. Desnoyers finished with 49 points (21G & 28A) in 37 games.

Let’s get him on an ATO to the phantoms

 

[Fight4yourRight]

What’s the scoop on JOB? Has he got his groove back?

 

[Fight4yourRight]

2019: York (14), Brink (34), Attard (72), Millman (103) are all hits, still a question if they can sign Attard. Serdyk (165), Ross (169) struggling, Brodzinski (196) has an outside shot at a 4th line role somewhere

2020: Foerster (23), Andrae (54), Wisdom (94), Desnoyers (135), McClennon (178)
Targets the primary need of this team, scorers with grit, Andrae we'll see, not a bad start in the SHL. McClennon a good late round gamble, we knew he could score, but enough to compensate for his size?

It is hard to find players who end up playing 400 games, my standard for a "hit" in the NHL, that's five full seasons, which usually means 2-3 good seasons and a half dozen bouncing around at the bottom of the roster at a minimum.

Since 2000 - Flyer draft picks with 400+ games:
2000: J Williams (28)
2001: P Sharp (95)
2002: Pitakenen (4)
2003: Carter (11), Richards (24)
2004:
2005: Downie (29)
2006: Giroux (22)
2007: JVR (2), Maroon (161)
2008: Sbisa (19)
2009, 2010:
2011: Couts (8), Cousins (68) [369g]
2012: Laughton (20) [362], Ghost (78) [374]
Projections
2013: Hagg (41) [228]
2014: Sanheim (17) [243], Lindblom (138) [172]
2015: Provorov (7), TK (24)
2016: Hart (48), Allison (52)
2017: Patrick (2), Frost (27)
2018: Farabee (14)
1st rd misses: 2001: Wywitka (27), 2013: Morin (11), 2016: Rubtsov (22)

2006 draft:
1st rd: (18), misses 8, 9, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, 24, 26, 27, 29, 30
2nd rd: (6), 3rd rd: (3), 4th rd (1), 6th rd (4), 7th rd (1)
2007 draft:
1st rd: (19), misses 8, 10, 15, 17, 19, 20, 23, 25, 28, 29, 30
2nd rd (3), 3rd rd (3), 4th rd (2), 5th rd (2), 6th rd (4), 7th rd (2)
2008 draft:
1st rd: (17), misses 6, 10, 13, 14, 16, 18, 21, 23, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
2nd rd (5), 3rd rd (3), 4th rd (4), 5th rd (2), 6th rd (3), 7th rd (1)
2009 draft:
1st rd: (17), misses 8, 9, 15, 17, 18, 20, 22, 23, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30
2nd rd (7), 3rd rd (5), 4th rd (7), 5th rd (4), 6th rd (1), 7th rd (1)
2010 draft:
1st rd: (18), misses 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18, 20, 22, 25, 27, 29
2nd rd (5), 3rd rd (2), 4th rd (2), 5th rd (5), 6th rd (2), 7th rd (1)

5 year summary:
1st rd chance of success 59.3% - 1-5: 100%, 6-15: 64%, 16-25: 46%, 26-30: 36%
this is why good teams that will draft late should trade their 1st rd picks to win now
2nd rd (10.2%), 3rd rd (10.7%), 4th rd (10.7%), 5th rd (8.7%), 6th rd (9.3%), 7th (4%)
trade picks for players without hesitation if the player is above replacement.

Expected "hits" per draft: 1.1. So any drafter who hits on more than 1 solid starter per draft is doing a great job.

Also shows why the worst thing a franchise can do is barely miss or make the playoffs but not be good enough to advance, picking inside the top 15 has real value, along with a shot at the top 5. Flyers got Farabee and York at #14, good shot at another key building block this summer.

Probably one of the better posts I’ve ever seen on HF. Nice to see something well and coldly analyzed but also optimistically geared on this place for once.

 

[TheKingPin]

Probably one of the better posts I’ve ever seen on HF. Nice to see something well and coldly analyzed but also optimistically geared on this place for once.

I hear you, but I think people are tired of being optimistic about prospects while literally one of the best Flyers of all time plus a Selke winner years have been and are being wasted. It’s a Travesty.

 

[Rebels57]

I hear you, but I think people are tired of being optimistic about prospects while literally one of the best Flyers of all time plus a Selke winner years have been and are being wasted. It’s a Travesty.

Yeah I couldnt care less anymore.

Prospects arent saving this team. They'll just keep them mediocre instead of bottoming out entirely.

 

[deadhead]

It's not a travesty, it's just bad timing. The problem goes back to 2012, and it was primarily due to Snider's reluctance to blow it up, suck for 2-3 years and be back on top by 2015. It takes a long time to build from the draft, but if you do it right, you should be competitive for a decade, and if you continue to draft well, indefinitely.

For all the whining about Fletcher, his first two drafts look like they're likely to produce at least 4-5 "hits."
York, Brink, Foerster, Wisdom all have a good shot, Attard, Millman, Desnoyers, Andrae have a decent shot, McClennon an outside shot.
If you can consistently produce 1.5 to 2 hits a year, that gives you the ammunition to chase big fish and the leeway to survive a Rubtsov, Laberge and Ginning - because mistakes at the top of the draft are inevitable.

 

[FLYguy3911]

 

[DancingPanther]

Good to be one of the Millmen™. Great work kid.

Pittsburgh is gonna love Attard.

 

[deadhead]

Yeah I couldnt care less anymore.

Prospects arent saving this team. They'll just keep them mediocre instead of bottoming out entirely.

Of course they're going to save this team, sure Couts (8), Voracek (7) were top of the draft, but Giroux (22) has had a lot better career than JVR (2).

Yes, it would have helped if we had a core like Barkov (2), Huberdeau (3), but their third scorer is Verhaeghe (82) who they picked up from the Islanders for Gudlevskis G, after he was packaged by Toronto in a trade for Grabner. Top D-man, Ekblad (1), 2nd, Weegar (206), who spent half a season in the ECHL and 2 1/2 seasons in the AHL.

Top 3 scorers/top 2 D-men by TOI
Carolina: Aho (36), Trocheck (64), Necas (12), Slavin (12), Pesce (66)
TB: Point (79), Palat (208), Stamkos (1)/Guorde (UDFA), Hedman (2), Sergachev (9) [T w/2nd for Drouin]
Caps: Backstrom (4), Ovechkin (1), Oshie (24) [T, 3rd rd & Brouwer], Carlsson (27), Orlov (55)
NYI: Barzal (16), Eberle (22) [T R Strome], Nelson (30)/Lee (152), Puloch (15), Leddy (16)[T Polla. Nilsson, Brennan]
Tor: Matthews (1), Marner (4), JT (1)[FA}, Rielly (5), Brodie (114)(FA)
VGK: Stone (178)[T 2nd, Brannstrom, Lindberg], Pacioretty (22)[T 2nd, Suzuki, Tatar], Marchessault (UDFA), Karlsson (53)
Col: MacKinnon (1), Rantanen (10), Landeskog (2), Girard (47),[T Duchense deal, basically for Turris], Makar (4)

Yes, it helps to have top picks, but Toronto still hasn't won anything.
Most trades, other than the Piacoretty trade, didn't require a lot of assets, it's a matter of identifying the right player to obtain.
A lot of top talent can be found in the 10-25 pick range, after that you have to be both good and lucky.

Above average drafting will pay off, but some astute moves are needed, if Patrick doesn't get it together, a young center would fill out a young group of forwards built around Farabee, Frost, Allison, Foerster, Lindblom, TK, Brink, JOB, Wisdom. A young RHD would complement Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, York, Zamula. Basically, give me 6 forwards and 4 D-men as the core, and I can fill around the bottom six and 3rd pair.

If we pick #12-15, we can get a building block player.

The one thing Fletcher shouldn't do is spend real assets (top prospects, 1st rd picks) on players over 30, bring them in as short-term patches while you find/develop long-term solutions. But history shows you can pick up solid veterans with a couple years left relatively cheaply if you have the cap room to accommodate veteran contracts.

The other thing they need to do is marinate a lot of prospects in the AHL for 2-3 years instead of bringing in too many AHL level players, while these guys are long-shots, guys like Weegar show that these lottery tickets occasionally pay off.

 

[TB87]

Good to be one of the Millmen™. Great work kid.

Pittsburgh is gonna love Attard.

Millman has been scratched in favor of Bigras of late. Gordon doesn’t have a good excuse now, “well he’s going back to his OHL team so scratching him is fine.” He better get playing time for the remainder of the season.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yeah I know guys wanted to see the Junior players in the AHL but this really hurts a guy like Millman. He’s only a two year Junior player. This was a big year for him as he would have been Saginaw’s #1 and would have gotten a chance to play on PP1 with Perfetti and Suzuki.

Wisdom hasn’t been able to sustain his start (understandably).

 

[DancingPanther]

Millman has been scratched in favor of Bigras of late. Gordon doesn’t have a good excuse now, “well he’s going back to his OHL team so scratching him is fine.” He better get playing time for the remainder of the season.

Yeah I know guys wanted to see the Junior players in the AHL but this really hurts a guy like Millman. He’s only a two year Junior player. This was a big year for him as he would have been Saginaw’s #1 and would have gotten a chance to play on PP1 with Perfetti and Suzuki.

Wisdom hasn’t been able to sustain his start (understandably).

In other words, life is terrible

 

[Psuhockey]

Yeah I couldnt care less anymore.

Prospects arent saving this team. They'll just keep them mediocre instead of bottoming out entirely.

Without Giroux and Couturier, this team would be bottomed out.

Unfortunately the only way out of this mess is the draft.

 

[Larry44]

But history shows you can pick up solid veterans with a couple years left relatively cheaply if you have the cap room to accommodate veteran contracts.

Just watched the bulk if the Pittsburgh game and was happy to see that Jeff Carter is still one of the best, fastest and biggest players on the ice, even at 35.

Remember suggestions a couple years ago that we sign Carter instead of Hayes, to fill the 2C gap? How smart would that have been, in retrospect? Carter would be the fastest player on the team, and light years better than Hayes at both ends of the ice. Oh well. Good move by Hexy to nab him for this year and next.

Bad signings can really hurt your team long term. $49M over 7 years for one good year of Hayes is proving to be not optimal.

 

[Larry44]

It's official, OHL is shut down.

 

[GKJ]

It's official, OHL is shut down.

This seemed like the only end possible for them. We’re mid-April and training camps usually open in August right? I don’t see how a 20-game season or whatever they were trying to do was ever going to work.

 

[Rebels57]

Without Giroux and Couturier, this team would be bottomed out.

Unfortunately the only way out of this mess is the draft.

The draft is important but it's not enough. What matters most is cleaning house, from the "senior advisors" on down. This management / coaching combination won't take us to the promised land. Ineffectual GM and incompetent coaching staff is a lot to overcome.

 

[deadhead]

Just watched the bulk if the Pittsburgh game and was happy to see that Jeff Carter is still one of the best, fastest and biggest players on the ice, even at 35.

Remember suggestions a couple years ago that we sign Carter instead of Hayes, to fill the 2C gap? How smart would that have been, in retrospect? Carter would be the fastest player on the team, and light years better than Hayes at both ends of the ice. Oh well. Good move by Hexy to nab him for this year and next.

Bad signings can really hurt your team long term. $49M over 7 years for one good year of Hayes is proving to be not optimal.

You couldn't sign him, you had to trade for him, and 3yr/$17M last year at 35. Wouldn't have cost a lot, maybe a 2nd or 3rd.

Carter last few seasons:
2017-18, 12 ES points in 27 games. 2.00 pp/60, xGFrel +0.39
2018-19, 18 in 76 games, 0.98 pp/60, xGFrel -4.43
2019-20, 22 in 60 games, 1.61 pp/60, xGFrel -6.05
2020-21, 16 in 43 games, 1.70 pp/60 xGFrel +1.95
$5.27M cap hit through next season
He doesn't PK. His PP production was 1st group through 2017-18, now 2nd group level.

Carter is a 3C at this point with durability issues.
He's not as good as Hayes, he's probably not as good as Laughton at this point in his career.
He'd have been expensive depth.

Patrick scored at ES, 1.80, 1.71 PP/60 his first two years, while he's down to 0.85 this year, that's probably a combination of rust and puck luck.

 

[Curufinwe]

Just watched the bulk if the Pittsburgh game and was happy to see that Jeff Carter is still one of the best, fastest and biggest players on the ice, even at 35.

Remember suggestions a couple years ago that we sign Carter instead of Hayes, to fill the 2C gap?

That suggestion wasn't very popular on here. Nor was trading for Kadri, who has been great for the Avs.

Per reports (1st post updated): Kevin Hayes close to signing 7 years, $50M

 

[Curufinwe]

 

[Curufinwe]

The draft is important but it's not enough. What matters most is cleaning house, from the "senior advisors" on down. This management / coaching combination won't take us to the promised land. Ineffectual GM and incompetent coaching staff is a lot to overcome.

Hextall and Hakstol getting fired and Holmgren retiring didn't change anything to your liking, but the inevitable next round of firings will surely solve everything.

 

[Psuhockey]

The draft is important but it's not enough. What matters most is cleaning house, from the "senior advisors" on down. This management / coaching combination won't take us to the promised land. Ineffectual GM and incompetent coaching staff is a lot to overcome.

This is true but the top 3 players on the team are still from the Holmgren era 8 years later. That’s a problem that the draft should of fixed and it hasn’t. Getting more from the 2017 #2 overall pick and anything from 3 other firsts round picks between 2016 and 2018 would have helped this season.

 

[TheKingPin]

Then I would think York is a no brainer.

 

[IronMarshal]

A promise of that was probably what he was promised to seal the signing.

 

[deadhead]

This is true but the top 3 players on the team are still from the Holmgren era 8 years later. That’s a problem that the draft should of fixed and it hasn’t. Getting more from the 2017 #2 overall pick and anything from 3 other firsts round picks between 2016 and 2018 would have helped this season.

Well, I hope #8 at 28 years old is your top player. Giroux is a borderline HOF player who is starting to fade.

Sanheim, Lindblom 2014, Provorov, Myers , TK 2015 are part of the new young core.
Hart, Allison and Laczynski may save 2016 where we whiffed on #22 and #36.
Patrick and Frost have taken longer than hoped out of 2017, where #35 seems to be another high whiff.
Farabee, JOB and Ersson could make 2018 another top draft year.

But when even good drafting only garners 2 players a year, you can see why NHL rebuilds can take 7-8 years.
But all these players are either on the roster or a good bet to be here next season other than JOB and Ersson.
But most players take 4-5 years.

"You can't hurry love . . . "