Seravalli: Pettersson extension could be finalized in the next few days

[Bourne Endeavor]

Because teams don't win with inflated cap hits.

9 years ago the first 8 figure AAV contracts were signed. Last year was the first time a team won the cup with one

Except with the cap going up you can exact these types of deals for every superstar player. Say Byfield explodes into a PPG player as he develops. When he's in Pettersson's position, you're paying him double digits. Same with McTavish in Anaheim if he becomes their superstar.

For all the flack Toronto gets for their contract, nobody bothers to look that Matthews takes up only 1% more of their cap percentage than Crosby did when he signed his 12 year deal. Malkin cost roughly the same.

10-15 years ago the notion of anyone barring a mega star status making over 8M was considered ridiculous. Times change and players are demanding more money as the cap goes up.

 

[Darren McCord]

I wonder if this is holding up the canucks trading for a winger. Rutherford doesnt really do rentals and they need to know how much cap they will have next year too

 

[POVERTY]

Seems very promising, around 12.5x8 is exactly what i was thinking, would be a solid deal

I'd be pretty thrilled if I were a Nucks fan to lock him down for 8 years at $12.5m. Not a steal right now but fair value, and will be looked back on favourably.

Seeing people say he's not worth $10m+ is laughable, EP is so good and still just 25.

 

[Drew Doubty]

It's amazing how people struggle with elementary math.

Still would be about 12 million today - so I think that would still be a modest paycut. Matthews got 13.25.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What this tells me is that the media can bully teams into doing things

I think Pettersson was very clear up front about not wanting to negotiate in season, but the media kept making a circus about it that both sides basically said "let's just get this done now to shut the media up".

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

12 is reasonable. It's not a discount, and with 8 years he isn't going to either leave or jack the rates up again in 4 years.

His jersey will be retired one day if he maintains this level of play.

What this tells me is that the media can bully teams into doing things

I think Pettersson was very clear up front about not wanting to negotiate in season, but the media kept making a circus about it that both sides basically said "let's just get this done now to shut the media up".

I think when you have seen teams get f***ed by players who have hemmed and hawed all year about if they're staying or going, only to walk and have secretly planned on leaving for months, people have a right to question why things aren't happening.

 

[Drew Doubty]

I wonder if this is holding up the canucks trading for a winger. Rutherford doesnt really do rentals and they need to know how much cap they will have next year too

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Canucks do this and a couple more resignings before the deadline. Heard they want Joshua and Blueger done and probably also want to lock down Hronek.

Assuming Petey is 12, Hronek 8, and Blueger and Joshua come in around 5 total, they'd have roughly 13 million to play with to sign 3d, 1 decent middle/top six forward, and a backup G.

5 mill for top six forward
4 mill for a second pair d-man
2 mill for a third pair guy
800K for a depth D
1.5 mill for backup G

 

[Peter Griffin]

What this tells me is that the media can bully teams into doing things

I think Pettersson was very clear up front about not wanting to negotiate in season, but the media kept making a circus about it that both sides basically said "let's just get this done now to shut the media up".

I think a big part of it is JR wanting to make additions and needs Pettersson’s long term commitment to justify them. I wouldn’t be surprised if Guentzel was traded to Vancouver before the trade deadline.

 

[Sideline]

Except with the cap going up you can exact these types of deals for every superstar player. Say Byfield explodes into a PPG player as he develops. When he's in Pettersson's position, you're paying him double digits. Same with McTavish in Anaheim if he becomes their superstar.

For all the flack Toronto gets for their contract, nobody bothers to look that Matthews takes up only 1% more of their cap percentage than Crosby did when he signed his 12 year deal. Malkin cost roughly the same.

10-15 years ago the notion of anyone barring a mega star status making over 8M was considered ridiculous. Times change and players are demanding more money as the cap goes up.

Toronto also got screwed by COVID coming out of nowhere and leading to years of a flat cap.

Malkin is a great case study in what an elite player is worth. He never signed one of those 15 year Kovalchuk style cheater contracts. He had two significant paydays prior to his current deal. His first contact out of ELC was 15.34% of the cap. His second was 14.77%.

Next year's cap will be 87.7 million. Prime Malkin would be getting between 12.95MM and 13.4MM.

EP at 12MM is pretty reasonable based on that comparison.

 

[Canucks LB]

One of the things that lots of people are not talking about is now the Canucks know exactly how much cap they have, which significantly increases the odds of the making a trade for a player they could have not just this year for the next few years at the deadline.

Know what kind of cap you have is pretty important

 

[Hodge]

There's no AAV legally allowed under the CBA that would be an overpayment for Pettersson on an 8-year contract. You're literally buying the entire prime of one of the best centers in the league.

 

[Slats432]

Players don't leave Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver. These three cities transcend Canada.

 

[Cancuks]

What this tells me is that the media can bully teams into doing things

I think Pettersson was very clear up front about not wanting to negotiate in season, but the media kept making a circus about it that both sides basically said "let's just get this done now to shut the media up".

More like the Canucks got frustrated with Pettersson as he is handcuffing them with potential moves with his contract so they leaked the $12 million offer to the media which they knew would run with it.

 

[Darren McCord]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Canucks do this and a couple more resignings before the deadline. Heard they want Joshua and Blueger done and probably also want to lock down Hronek.

Assuming Petey is 12, Hronek 8, and Blueger and Joshua come in around 5 total, they'd have roughly 13 million to play with to sign 3d, 1 decent middle/top six forward, and a backup G.

5 mill for top six forward
4 mill for a second pair d-man
2 mill for a third pair guy
800K for a depth D
1.5 mill for backup G

What are their prospects like? Why spend 5 million ont those guys instead of trading for and signing a top 6 forward?

 

[Rowlet]

What are their prospects like? Why spend 5 million ont those guys instead of trading for and signing a top 6 forward?

Bleuger and Joshua have been excellent and the team's prospects are... lacklustre, there's some real high end talent but a lack of skilled grit guys at fwd with the exception of Podkolzin. For what it's worth, I think 5 is far too high between them, but I think Joshua is going to get a large contract offer from a team that he can't turn down, it may be his one shot at a big payday.

More importantly, the jury is out as to whether or not the kids are ready to take the next step, with the exception of maybe Lekkerimaki.

 

[Curufinwe]

Because teams don't win with inflated cap hits.

The Pens won the Cup in 2009 with Crosby's $8,700,000 AAV taking up 15.34% of the $56,700,000 cap.

That works out to an AAV of $12,812,169 under the current cap of $83,500,000. Which is more than McDavid and MacKinnon make.

NHL Salary Cap History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

NHL salary cap history and projections including floor, cap, upper limit, lower limit, minimum salary and the date the season was confirmed

www.capfriendly.com

 

[JKG33]

The Pens won the Cup in 2009 with Crosby's $8,700,000 AAV taking up 15.34% of the $56,700,000 cap.

That works out to an AAV of $12,812,169 under the current cap of $83,500,000. Which is more than McDavid and MacKinnon make.

NHL Salary Cap History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

NHL salary cap history and projections including floor, cap, upper limit, lower limit, minimum salary and the date the season was confirmed

www.capfriendly.com

It's funny that the one example is from 15 years ago with the best player in the world, and another top 5 player as well.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

There's no AAV legally allowed under the CBA that would be an overpayment for Pettersson on an 8-year contract. You're literally buying the entire prime of one of the best centers in the league.

It's either you do this now, or you risk him either walking in 3-4 years or his AAV going up to $15 million per.

 

[Curufinwe]

That's just the most obvious example of your entire point being wrong. Just four years into the cap era, a team won the Cup with one player making over 15% of the total cap.

When the Bruins won the Cup in 2011, Chara made $7,500,000 AAV - 12.62% of the $59,400,000 cap.

Under the current cap of $83,500,000, that would be $10,542,929. Over the arbitrary ten million dollar mark that people were throwing around until Eichel and Vegas won last year.

 

[Artemi Panarin]

Edmonton paid him more than Toronto because he had to live in Edmonton if he went with their offer. Perfectly understandable.

 

[kvladimir]

Bleuger and Joshua have been excellent and the team's prospects are... lacklustre, there's some real high end talent but a lack of skilled grit guys at fwd with the exception of Podkolzin. For what it's worth, I think 5 is far too high between them, but I think Joshua is going to get a large contract offer from a team that he can't turn down, it may be his one shot at a big payday.

More importantly, the jury is out as to whether or not the kids are ready to take the next step, with the exception of maybe Lekkerimaki.

I feel like Joshua, Blueger, Lafferty, and at least one of Cole/Myers/Zadorov will have to be cap casualties this offseason, because depending on the deal, it would be smarter to extend Lindholm (and EP40 + Hronek, obviously), especially if his performance this year lowers his demands to <8M AAV and/or <7 years. A right-shot top 6 all situations C with recent 70-80+ point seasons is more important than any if not all of the players listed above. There should be organizational depth and / or smart external signings able to fill the gap with minimal dropoff next year, something like, say:

Hoglander-Miller-Boeser
Pettersson-Lindholm-Lekkerimaki
Bains-Suter-Garland
Podkolzin-Raty-Aman/Karlsson/Di Guiseppe

Hughes-Hronek
Soucy-UFA RD
Zadorov-Juulsen/Woo

Maybe they would have room to keep Joshua or Myers at a lower cap. I wonder if they could add a puck moving low-cap RD with potential to break out in a middle pairing role, a Boqvist/Jokiharju/Nils Lundkvist type?

 

[Slats432]

Edmonton paid him more than Toronto because he had to live in Edmonton if he went with their offer. Perfectly understandable.

And interestingly enough the best contract in the league right now.

 

[oceanchild]

I think a big part of it is JR wanting to make additions and needs Pettersson’s long term commitment to justify them. I wouldn’t be surprised if Guentzel was traded to Vancouver before the trade deadline.

I wonder if a deal is jn the hoper and they want a commitment before they invest the assets.

 

[Rowlet]

I feel like Joshua, Blueger, Lafferty, and at least one of Cole/Myers/Zadorov will have to be cap casualties this offseason, because depending on the deal, it would be smarter to extend Lindholm (and EP40 + Hronek, obviously), especially if his performance this year lowers his demands to <8M AAV and/or <7 years. A right-shot top 6 all situations C with recent 70-80+ point seasons is more important than any if not all of the players listed above. There should be organizational depth and / or smart external signings able to fill the gap with minimal dropoff next year, something like, say:

Hoglander-Miller-Boeser
Pettersson-Lindholm-Lekkerimaki
Bains-Suter-Garland
Podkolzin-Raty-Aman/Karlsson/Di Guiseppe

Hughes-Hronek
Soucy-UFA RD
Zadorov-Juulsen/Woo

Maybe they would have room to keep Joshua or Myers at a lower cap. I wonder if they could add a puck moving low-cap RD with potential to break out in a middle pairing role, a Boqvist/Jokiharju/Nils Lundkvist type?

I think Myers is gone, just like Gudbranson before him, someone is going to offer 4x4 or higher and he will take it. Zadorov will be tricky but he's keepable, I think the team lets Joshua go as well if the decision is between him and Bleuger. Podkolzin could fit in with that third line taking Joshua's spot.