Confirmed with Link: Per Friedman, Leafs and Zaitsev have agreed to move on, will find trade for him

[Kiwi]

Usually, d'men will pass the puck back and forth, etc and move out of the d'zone... It doesn't work that way with Jake, once the puck is on his stick, Zaitsev/Leafs forwards have no idea what he is going to do with it and often causes Zaitsev to panic and get caught out of position , Dermott found out what its like in the playoffs...imo

The cold hard fact of the matter was the only person that could move the puck efficiently on that pair was Gardiner
Gardiner can be a flighty bugger but at least he can get the puck on his stick and make a pass out of his own zone

Zaitsev can't, he feels pressure even when there isn't any and can't make a pass to save his life

I don't hate Zaitsev, I thought he provided good value to the team when he was paired with Muzzin but he's a flawed player and shifting the blame to Gardiner is disingenuous

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

IMO Zaitsev is OK value at 4.5m. It's getting some team to agree to take five years left on his contract. All or most teams would certainly like cap flexibility instead of acquiring Zaitsev.
So while the Leafs would love to accommodate Zaitsev and his trade request, finding a trading partner is difficult.
Leafs shouldn't expect anything back in return, it's how much they to retain. So if the Leafs might trade Zaitsev with a 1.5m retention, the Leafs would have to find 3m replacement just to come out even cap wise.

So the Leafs/Zaitsev might have a situation come September...Zaitsev is still a Leaf. Be interesting if Zaitsev is true to his word and won't play for the Leafs again. Does he retire from the NHL? That would be best cap scenario for the Leafs, but would Zaitsev leave his 20m NHL contract

 

[Joey Hoser]

I don't hate Zaitsev, I thought he provided good value to the team when he was paired with Muzzin but he's a flawed player and shifting the blame to Gardiner is disingenuous

Guy was used entirely wrong here. He's a middle-pairing puck mover and 2nd PP guy based on his skills and ability. At least, that's what he looked like before Babcock did his best to turn him into Roman Polak, and I think he might be broken now.

 

[Kiwi]

Guy was used entirely wrong here. He's a middle-pairing puck mover and 2nd PP guy based on his skills and ability. At least, that's what he looked like before Babcock did his best to turn him into Roman Polak, and I think he might be broken now.

He's never shown the ability to pass the puck consistently at the NHL level, we can argue system but everybody else can move the puck so why can't Zaitsev? He also isn't a better PP QB that either Rielly or Gardiner

 

[Guided by Veseys]

Pair him with another Russian who is a solid player and I think he will be dynamite. If he was paired with somebody like Zadorov where the offence against him would be a bit more fearful of being crushed I bet he would be a really effective player. There’s not many Russian defence in the league though so that’s not an easy match.

 

[Joey Hoser]

He's never shown the ability to pass the puck consistently at the NHL level, we can argue system but everybody else can move the puck so why can't Zaitsev? He also isn't a better PP QB that either Rielly or Gardiner

Yes he did. He was a perfectly capable puck moving defenseman in his first year, putting up 36 points as a rookie and things were lookin' up for him. Most people were even fine with him making 4 million, and it was just the term that was scary. Then he turned to garbage and couldn't get 15 points and handles the puck like badger with rabies.

And of course he isn't a better PP guy than Rielly or Gardiner. WTF? Why did you even say that?

 

[Menzinger]

Dont have the numbers in front of me, but weren't a fair margin of those 36 points during his rookie season secondary assists?

 

[Kiwi]

Yes he did. He was a perfectly capable puck moving defenseman in his first year, putting up 36 points as a rookie and things were lookin' up for him. Most people were even fine with him making 4 million, and it was just the term that was scary. Then he turned to garbage and couldn't get 15 points and handles the puck like badger with rabies.

And of course he isn't a better PP guy than Rielly or Gardiner. WTF? Why did you even say that?

Because for him to QB the 2nd PP unit he's got to be better than the guys in front of him so you can't argue usage and include him getting PP time if he's not good enough to warrant it

He was feed PP time he didn't deserve his first season and it infatuated his numbers but his 5v5 production and shot metrics have never been particularly good, some people myself included thought he'd be worth his contract once his QOC dropped

We were wrong, unfortunately it turns out if you handle the puck like a grenade and have no feel for pressure bad **** happens

 

[Joey Hoser]

Dont have the numbers in front of me, but weren't a fair margin of those 36 points during his rookie season secondary assists?

Probably. Im not trying to say was great or anything, just that he was much better in his first year when he wasn't relied upon as a shutdown guy, and I really don't think I'm going out on a limb saying that. It's pretty evident in the stats and simply remembering how he played.

I'm not even saying the Leafs did it wrong. They kind of had to move him there because all the offensive situations were going to go Rielly, Gardiner, or Dermott. He just sucked at that role and it even seemed to mess with his head, so thankfully they have the opportunity to move on from him.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Because for him to QB the 2nd PP unit he's got to be better than the guys in front of him so you can't argue usage and include him getting PP time if he's not good enough to warrant it

He was feed PP time he didn't deserve his first season and it infatuated his numbers but his 5v5 production and shot metrics have never been particularly good, some people myself included thought he'd be worth his contract once his QOC dropped

We were wrong, unfortunately it turns out if you handle the puck like a grenade and have no feel for pressure bad **** happens

I didn't mean that he should have played on the PP instead of Rielly or Gardiner. I meant that that's the type of player he is, generally speaking. Or at least, the type of player he looked like coming off his first season, before they turned him into a shutdown/pk guy, which was a failed experiment.

I'm not saying he should have played higher, I'm saying they don't have a place for him.

 

[Kiwi]

I didn't mean that he should have played on the PP instead of Rielly or Gardiner. I meant that that's the type of player he is, generally speaking. Or at least, the type of player he looked like coming off his first season, before they turned him into a shutdown/pk guy, which was a failed experiment.

I'm not saying he should have played higher, I'm saying they don't have a place for him.

The problem is his puck moving is so poor your almost forced to use him in a shutdown PK role, feeding a guy that can't move the puck plenty of offensive opportunities isn't really helping the team either

 

[Joey Hoser]

The problem is his puck moving is so poor your almost forced to use him in a shutdown PK role, feeding a guy that can't move the puck plenty of offensive opportunities isn't really helping the team either

Puck moving so poor he got 36 points as a rookie? Huh?

He was forced to be a shutdown guy because Babcock finally put Rielly on the PP and paired him with Hainsey, and later lost Polak.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Dont have the numbers in front of me, but weren't a fair margin of those 36 points during his rookie season secondary assists?

Is that sarcasm? I've never really looked at the stat but I am guessing most d-men would have a majority of their assists as secondary?

 

[Prominence]

I'm going to try to be objective in my ramble despite my anti-zaitsev bias.

His straight-line skating is not bad. I cannot comment on his puck moving ability due to the fact that I rarely see him skate the puck out as he usually banks a pass off the boards or creates a 50/50 situation. I have a problem with this as I have seen opposing forwards capitalize on this by poaching the boards and waiting for that pass. 36 points as a 24 year old rookie is not that impressive considering he got 2nd pp time (2nd on leafs with 164 minutes). He's basically a 24 point player without pp time. Still, Zaitsev would probably top out as a 40 point player if given pp time on this team, but can perhaps break that on another team. He did do quite well in iihf tourney once...

He's more of a shooter on the pp, not necessarily a puck mover. I would argue the rielly/gardiner option is better than the gardiner/zaitsev on the pp. Rielly and gardiner have better mobility allowing them to hold the line and prolong possession on the pp. The leafs pp seems to be predicated on shots from the slot and not the point. Therefore a puck mover is more necessary for the leafs D.

Interestingly, he had 17 primary points out of his 36. 25% of his pp points were primary.
IcyData » Player Stats » Primary and Secondary Assists for 2016-2017 Regular Season.

Using a random player...Rielly is like 90% in the same year, but this past year, rielly was 60%. His pp primary points dips down to 55. Gardiner was 28% in the season (for primary powerplay points) where zaitsev had 36 points. Gardiner had 67% of his points were primary. Gardiner is 40% this year for primary power play stats.

 

[LaPlante94]

I'm going to try to be objective in my ramble despite my anti-zaitsev bias.

His straight-line skating is not bad. I cannot comment on his puck moving ability due to the fact that I rarely see him skate the puck out as he usually banks a pass off the boards or creates a 50/50 situation. I have a problem with this as I have seen opposing forwards capitalize on this by poaching the boards and waiting for that pass. 36 points as a 24 year old rookie is not that impressive considering he got 2nd pp time (2nd on leafs with 164 minutes). He's basically a 24 point player without pp time. Still, Zaitsev would probably top out as a 40 point player if given pp time on this team, but can perhaps break that on another team. He did do quite well in iihf tourney once...

He's more of a shooter on the pp, not necessarily a puck mover. I would argue the rielly/gardiner option is better than the gardiner/zaitsev on the pp. Rielly and gardiner have better mobility allowing them to hold the line and prolong possession on the pp. The leafs pp seems to be predicated on shots from the slot and not the point. Therefore a puck mover is more necessary for the leafs D.

Interestingly, he had 17 primary points out of his 36. 25% of his pp points were primary.
IcyData » Player Stats » Primary and Secondary Assists for 2016-2017 Regular Season.

Using a random player...Rielly is like 90% in the same year, but this past year, rielly was 60%. His pp primary points dips down to 55. Gardiner was 28% in the season (for primary powerplay points) where zaitsev had 36 points. Gardiner had 67% of his points were primary. Gardiner is 40% this year for primary power play stats.

Our d man rarely does anything on the PP. It's literally pass it over to Marner and once in a while try and get a shot through.

 

[Prominence]

Our d man rarely does anything on the PP. It's literally pass it over to Marner and once in a while try and get a shot through.

The defensemen's job in the leafs pp scheme is also to "hold the line" and create a bail option for marner. Teams have adjusted to our pp by pressuring marner and to partially compensate for this, rielly has to be open in order to pass it to marner and if the pass is not there, swing it to matthews. In terms of holding the line, rielly and gardiner (and even dermott) are better options than zaitsev because when a play breaks down and the puck rolls next the boards (or is heading to centre ice) the point man has to prevent it from rolling outside the blue line (forcing an offside). Rielly is a fast skater with great mobility and also great vision as he often anticipates this to keep the puck in. Gardiner's vision is not as good but his mobility helps him accomplish this job. I do not know how good zaitsev's vision is, but his mobility is average at best. Either the puck tends to roll past him on the blue line or he does not have the same anticipation as someone like rielly.

On one hand, I do agree that the defenseman does not do much in the leafs' pp scheme, but on the other, I dislike shots from the point as they have a low conversion rate (as compared to the slot).

 

[Zybalto]

First off, I don't really buy the whole "no one in the media wants you to see this"-angle. Just as a suggestion, I think arguments like that undermines your case.

Regarding the stat itself, I'm curious where you get it? Because it doesn't seem to correlate with any other stats I've seen. It's hard to counter your argument before I know that. My preliminary retort would be that outside individual micro stats, the best way we can judge would be to use adjusted RelTM numbers. That would give us a look at how his teammates do offensively when he's on the ice, even after taking contextual factors into account. And Zaitsev has an substantial negative effect on the offense his teammates produce when on the ice with him. That goes well in hand with more advanced models like RAPM and the likes, that try to isolate individual impact as much as possible, and that paints a grim picture of Zaitsev's offensive impact.

As for zone exits, it's been shown that uncontrolled exits barely has a noticeable effect on chances against immediately after. The puck gets out but generally only results in a controlled entry coming back the other way, with offense created as a result. As such, they don't have a significant value. What you want is controlled exits by passing or skating, and Zaitsev does really bad there. That was what I was alluding to.

Heh, the swipe at the media is maybe my own problem I guess.....but the overall media has gotten so bad the last few years I cant help myself sometimes.

Its kind of funny I even decided to watch this Zaitsev cat. He was brutal the first half of last year but I guess I saw something in him the latter half of the year and especially the playoffs that told me he shouldnt be written off quite yet.

The scoring chance numbers are from a simple natural stat trick search with the parameters I mentioned. Here they are with TOI% QoT and TOI% QoC numbers listed too (which I lifted from corsica):

Most scoring chances created/60 while on the ice 5v5 dmen (score adjusted, 1200 minutes minimum, 90 dmen total), follow by Offensive zone faceoff%:

1. 34.85 - Morgan Rielly, 54.81% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 28.74, TOI% QoC: 29.48
2. 32.86 - Dougie Hamilton, 54.87% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 27.81, TOI% QoC: 28.85
3. 32.10 - Shea Theodore, 55.28% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 27.39, TOI% QoC: 28.7
4. 32.00 - Nikita Zaitsev, 41.92% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 28.39, TOI% QoC: 29.16
5. 31.96 - Kris Letang, 51.49% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 29.12, TOI% QoC: 29.67


I think its just a really strange anomaly Zaitsev is so high. He's much lower down when it comes to corsi for, HD chances for, shots for etc. I also think the Leafs as a whole were just a scoring chance machine this calendar year as literally 6 out of the top 10 were Leafs D....the same D we went into the playoffs with (god I wish they were healthy). Its just so damn odd that a guy as defensively deployed as Zaitsev if makes it to the top half the league, let alone 4th.

I also think the Leafs speed may have contributed to the scoring chance numbers as flipping the puck out or ringing it around had a chance to be picked up be a speedy winder and into a chance.

I also do agree with you that uncontrolled exits are not the way to go of course and it is Zaitsevs biggest liability.....but to make up for it he must be really good at other things. I never hear them being spoken of though. It kind of odd actually. I hear he cant play offense. cant pass, cant get out of his zone, is soft, etc... but Ive never seen the stats disagree with public opinion/media perception in quite this way.....even end results.

I mean, I kept hearing on broadcasts how the Leafs were the best team at holding a lead in the 3rd this year and never heard Hainsey/Zaitsev get mentioned at all....but you know they would get mentioned damn near every game it if it was the opposite. Maybe part of it is that the media is very favorable to Anderson? I dunno. I think the earlier poster had it nailed that he's sort of this teams Yushkevich and most fans will miss him when hes gone...bah, ill stop ranting now.


I guess just worry about what the hell the team is going to do with those minutes once hes gone. Easily our best RHD and one of our best playoff performers and I you have folks talking like Holl is going to replace him or something. Its gonna cost the team to just replace his value, nevermind upgrade. If Dubas manages to get Manson + Miller, Ill build a statue of him myself downtown though.

 

[Prominence]

Heh, the swipe at the media is maybe my own problem I guess.....but the overall media has gotten so bad the last few years I cant help myself sometimes.

Its kind of funny I even decided to watch this Zaitsev cat. He was brutal the first half of last year but I guess I saw something in him the latter half of the year and especially the playoffs that told me he shouldnt be written off quite yet.

The scoring chance numbers are from a simple natural stat trick search with the parameters I mentioned. Here they are with TOI% QoT and TOI% QoC numbers listed too (which I lifted from corsica):

Most scoring chances created/60 while on the ice 5v5 dmen (score adjusted, 1200 minutes minimum, 90 dmen total), follow by Offensive zone faceoff%:

1. 34.85 - Morgan Rielly, 54.81% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 28.74, TOI% QoC: 29.48
2. 32.86 - Dougie Hamilton, 54.87% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 27.81, TOI% QoC: 28.85
3. 32.10 - Shea Theodore, 55.28% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 27.39, TOI% QoC: 28.7
4. 32.00 - Nikita Zaitsev, 41.92% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 28.39, TOI% QoC: 29.16
5. 31.96 - Kris Letang, 51.49% offensive zone faceoffs, TOI% QoT: 29.12, TOI% QoC: 29.67


I think its just a really strange anomaly Zaitsev is so high. He's much lower down when it comes to corsi for, HD chances for, shots for etc. I also think the Leafs as a whole were just a scoring chance machine this calendar year as literally 6 out of the top 10 were Leafs D....the same D we went into the playoffs with (god I wish they were healthy). Its just so damn odd that a guy as defensively deployed as Zaitsev if makes it to the top half the league, let alone 4th.

I also think the Leafs speed may have contributed to the scoring chance numbers as flipping the puck out or ringing it around had a chance to be picked up be a speedy winder and into a chance.

I also do agree with you that uncontrolled exits are not the way to go of course and it is Zaitsevs biggest liability.....but to make up for it he must be really good at other things. I never hear them being spoken of though. It kind of odd actually. I hear he cant play offense. cant pass, cant get out of his zone, is soft, etc... but Ive never seen the stats disagree with public opinion/media perception in quite this way.....even end results.

I mean, I kept hearing on broadcasts how the Leafs were the best team at holding a lead in the 3rd this year and never heard Hainsey/Zaitsev get mentioned at all....but you know they would get mentioned damn near every game it if it was the opposite. Maybe part of it is that the media is very favorable to Anderson? I dunno. I think the earlier poster had it nailed that he's sort of this teams Yushkevich and most fans will miss him when hes gone...bah, ill stop ranting now.


I guess just worry about what the hell the team is going to do with those minutes once hes gone. Easily our best RHD and one of our best playoff performers and I you have folks talking like Holl is going to replace him or something. Its gonna cost the team to just replace his value, nevermind upgrade. If Dubas manages to get Manson + Miller, Ill build a statue of him myself downtown though.

I like whatever is bolded. He is still bad at getting out of his own zone however. His scoring chances are fascinating because he played the first half with gardiner who is ranked 39th, but muzzin is also ranked 10th.

Not trying to sound defensive, but what do you mean by "but to make up for it he must be really good at other things. I never hear them being spoken of though." He is definitely not soft, but what is he actually good at?

Note: He also has a good scf% similar to Rielly.

 

[Zybalto]

I like whatever is bolded. He is still bad at getting out of his own zone however. His scoring chances are fascinating because he played the first half with gardiner who is ranked 39th, but muzzin is also ranked 10th.

Not trying to sound defensive, but what do you mean by "but to make up for it he must be really good at other things. I never hear them being spoken of though." He is definitely not soft, but what is he actually good at?

1. He's a better penalty killer than given credit for. Solid during the regular season, hes been 3rd best in the NHL in goals against/60 REL over the last two playoffs and thats all against Boston's beast of a PP.
2. One of the better shot suppressors on the team. Part of the reason is that hes good at blocking shots as well as getting out of the way at the right times. Don Cherry must lov.....ahh nevermind.
3. While he gives up a fair amount of scoring chances, hes one of the better D at preventing high danger chances....probably due to his net and board presence.
4. He steps it up in the playoffs. For a team thats hungry for guys to push to the next level when it matters, all Zaitsevs underlying numbers skyrocket in important games.
5. He has good numbers for a guy who plays the hard minutes he does. QoC and zone starts are important factors.

Just off the top of my head. For a fanbase and media market crying out for RHD and ripping Torontos D, I figure they would like a RHD whos main strength is being good at D.

 

[Prominence]

I looked at his SA, CA, FA, HDSCA, SCA metrics and compared them to his minutes. They are actually not bad. Adjusted for time, they are eerily similar to gardiner's and muzzin's (although muzzin's corsi against is worse). His differentials are dragged down by his shots for metrics though (not always a bad thing).

 

[Maple Leaf]

Who cares about numbers
Watch this man play
I did

 

[Prominence]

Without numbers, you don't know what to look for. It's hard to encapsulate everything with the eye test.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Who cares about numbers
Watch this man play
I did

We all watched him, but if you want to have a conversation with another person, you have to talk about actual things.

 

[thewave]

I looked at his SA, CA, FA, HDSCA, SCA metrics and compared them to his minutes. They are actually not bad. Adjusted for time, they are eerily similar to gardiner's and muzzin's (although muzzin's corsi against is worse). His differentials are dragged down by his shots for metrics though (not always a bad thing).

Z is a fine defender at his contract in today's NHL. If he were a free agent he would get what he is paid today. That means he has value in trade. You could maybe squeeze an expected late 1st for him or couple 2nds.

 

[Shanty]

Z is a fine defender at his contract in today's NHL. If he were a free agent he would get what he is paid today. That means he has value in trade. You could maybe squeeze an expected late 1st for him or couple 2nds.

I agree that he still has positive value, but I'd be shocked if we got more than a B-C level prospect or a mid-round pick. Probably a conditional one.