Pens have a firepower advantage up front, but the Wings team have ample firepower as well, and they are much more balanced and have shutdown forwards that Pens just don’t have.
On defense, the Red Wings have a huge advantage in terms of two-way and defensive prowess. They have ample offense and physicality on the back end as well. The Pens just have a bunch of OFD/PMDs with the exception of guys like Orpik (lol). Big mismatch.
Goaltending is another big mismatch favouring the Red Wings.
As for coaching, the Red Wings have a big advantage, yet again.
The Pens are essentially all offense. I think the Wings shutdown guys would be able to stifle the Pens’ firepower enough for the Wings to take over the games and return fire with their own potent offense.
Not sure what you are getting at here .81 career in the Playoffs, nothing wrong with that.
Look at what your top guys are around,, He isn't even in our top 5 players. Just another stud
.96 Federov
.87 Zetterburg
.72 Datysuk
The talent upfront that the Pens would bring would be unstoppable IMO, of course I am biased but I think the talent speaks for itself. Detroit has some but the top tier and the depth on the Pens end would be too much.
I know you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about here because unfortunately for you I actually DID the research on this exact topic. In a thread I posted on last year I specifically analyzed how Lemieux performed against both the best and worst defensive teams in the league in 1992-93(yeah, I'm thorough).
In 1992-93 the top 12 best defensive teams in the league allowed 3281 goals against while the 12 worst defensive teams allowed 4030 Goals against. Players scored 44.9% of their goals against the best defensive teams and 55.1% against the worst. This means a player should be expected to score at a rate of 89.8% of their average scoring rate against the best and 110.2% against the worst.
Now take another guess how Mario faired, I hope you got it right this time because you guessed wrong the first time around;
Lemieux 92-93
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
1.04
2.48
90.4%
92.9%
89.8%
Vs Bottom half
1.24
2.82
107.8%
105.6%
110.2%
Mario scored goals and gathered points at a rate higher than the league norm against the best defensive teams in the league.
For the record here's how Gretzky's 83-84 season compares;
Gretzky 83-84
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
0.77
2.23
65.0%
80.6%
88.9%
Vs Bottom half
1.45
3.14
123.3%
113.2%
111.1%
Gretzky heavily beat up on the weaker defensive teams in the league that season. Though interestingly enough that still doesn't stop most people from ranking it as the greatest offensive season of all time.
Here are their splits if there's any doubt, by all means do the math yourself.
The head to head games argument is the weakest one anyone could make in a discussion about which team would beat the other head to head. Repeat that to yourself a couple times.
I'm not sure how you don't understand how meaningless these games are as a predictive value. First off your using games outside of Mario's peak which is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Secondly and even more relevantly you're placing a ridiculously exaggerated value on essentially 4 or 6 comparatively meaningless regular season gamesspread out over several years and trying to suggest that this somehow is an accurate predictor of how these two teams and two players would perform if they met in a best on best series while they were at the peak of their abilities. It's a laughable argument and one easily proven to be false, case in point;
Your Red Wings beat the Avs 3 times in 4 games over the course of the 1995-96 regular season; In games 1, 44 , 65 and 71. Sakic had but 2 points in those 4 games, a goal and a assist while Forsberg was held to a single goal.
Now tell everyone what happened when these two teams met again that same season in a best of 7 playoff series. Actually allow me; The Avs handily beat the Wings 4 games to 2. With Sakic absolutely annihilating the best Wings team of all time to the toon of 4 goals and 10 points with Forsberg chipping in a pair of goals and assists, both FAR surpassing their regular season numbers.
Regular Season
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
4
1
1
2
0.50
Forsberg
4
0
1
1
0.25
Totals
8
1
2
3
0.38
Playoff best of 7
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
6
4
6
10
1.67
Forsberg
6
2
2
4
0.67
Totals
12
6
8
14
1.17
So precisely what predictive value did the regular season results between these two teams and two players have in their performance in the best-of-7 playoff series which occurred between them in the exact same season? Zip, Zero, Zilch, Nada, Nothing, Absolutely Worthless.
Not sure what you are getting at here .81 career in the Playoffs, nothing wrong with that.
Look at what your top guys are around,, He isn't even in our top 5 players. Just another stud
.96 Federov
.87 Zetterburg
.72 Datysuk
The talent upfront that the Pens would bring would be unstoppable IMO, of course I am biased but I think the talent speaks for itself. Detroit has some but the top tier and the depth on the Pens end would be too much.
I know you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about here because unfortunately for you I actually DID the research on this exact topic. In a thread I posted on last year I specifically analyzed how Lemieux performed against both the best and worst defensive teams in the league in 1992-93(yeah, I'm thorough).
In 1992-93 the top 12 best defensive teams in the league allowed 3281 goals against while the 12 worst defensive teams allowed 4030 Goals against. Players scored 44.9% of their goals against the best defensive teams and 55.1% against the worst. This means a player should be expected to score at a rate of 89.8% of their average scoring rate against the best and 110.2% against the worst.
Now take another guess how Mario faired, I hope you got it right this time because you guessed wrong the first time around;
Lemieux 92-93
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
1.04
2.48
90.4%
92.9%
89.8%
Vs Bottom half
1.24
2.82
107.8%
105.6%
110.2%
Mario scored goals and gathered points at a rate higher than the league norm against the best defensive teams in the league.
For the record here's how Gretzky's 83-84 season compares;
Gretzky 83-84
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
0.77
2.23
65.0%
80.6%
88.9%
Vs Bottom half
1.45
3.14
123.3%
113.2%
111.1%
Gretzky heavily beat up on the weaker defensive teams in the league that season. Though interestingly enough that still doesn't stop most people from ranking it as the greatest offensive season of all time.
Here are their splits if there's any doubt, by all means do the math yourself.
Do you have any other uneducated guesses you want to throw out there?
I'm not sure how you don't understand how meaningless these games are as a predictive value. First off your using games outside of Mario's peak which is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Secondly and even more relevantly you're placing a ridiculously exaggerated value on essentially 4 or 6 comparatively meaningless regular season gamesspread out over several years and trying to suggest that this somehow is an accurate predictor of how these two teams and two players would perform if they met in a best on best series while they were at the peak of their abilities. It's a laughable argument and one easily proven to be false, case in point;
Your Red Wings beat the Avs 3 times in 4 games over the course of the 1995-96 regular season; In games 1, 44 , 65 and 71. Sakic had but 2 points in those 4 games, a goal and a assist while Forsberg was held to a single assist.
Now tell everyone what happened when these two teams met again that same season in a best of 7 playoff series. Actually allow me; The Avs handily beat the Wings 4 games to 2. With Sakic absolutely annihilating the best Wings team of all time to the toon of 4 goals and 10 points with Forsberg chipping in a pair of goals and assists, both FAR surpassing their regular season numbers.
Regular Season
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
4
1
1
2
0.50
Forsberg
4
0
1
1
0.25
Totals
8
1
2
3
0.38
Playoff best of 7
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
6
4
6
10
1.67
Forsberg
6
2
2
4
0.67
Totals
12
6
8
14
1.17
So precisely what predictive value did the regular season results between these two teams and two players have in their performance in the best-of-7 playoff series which occurred between them in the exact same season? Zip, Zero, Zilch, Nada, Nothing, Absolutely Worthless.
I know you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about here because unfortunately for you I actually DID the research on this exact topic. In a thread I posted on last year I specifically analyzed how Lemieux performed against both the best and worst defensive teams in the league in 1992-93(yeah, I'm thorough).
In 1992-93 the top 12 best defensive teams in the league allowed 3281 goals against while the 12 worst defensive teams allowed 4030 Goals against. Players scored 44.9% of their goals against the best defensive teams and 55.1% against the worst. This means a player should be expected to score at a rate of 89.8% of their average scoring rate against the best and 110.2% against the worst.
Now take another guess how Mario faired, I hope you got it right this time because you guessed wrong the first time around;
Lemieux 92-93
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
1.04
2.48
90.4%
92.9%
89.8%
Vs Bottom half
1.24
2.82
107.8%
105.6%
110.2%
Mario scored goals and gathered points at a rate higher than the league norm against the best defensive teams in the league.
For the record here's how Gretzky's 83-84 season compares;
Gretzky 83-84
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
0.77
2.23
65.0%
80.6%
88.9%
Vs Bottom half
1.45
3.14
123.3%
113.2%
111.1%
Gretzky heavily beat up on the weaker defensive teams in the league that season. Though interestingly enough that still doesn't stop most people from ranking it as the greatest offensive season of all time.
Here are their splits if there's any doubt, by all means do the math yourself.
Do you have any other uneducated guesses you want to throw out there?
I'm not sure how you don't understand how meaningless these games are as a predictive value. First off your using games outside of Mario's peak which is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Secondly and even more relevantly you're placing a ridiculously exaggerated value on essentially 4 or 6 comparatively meaningless regular season gamesspread out over several years and trying to suggest that this somehow is an accurate predictor of how these two teams and two players would perform if they met in a best on best series while they were at the peak of their abilities. It's a laughable argument and one easily proven to be false, case in point;
Your Red Wings beat the Avs 3 times in 4 games over the course of the 1995-96 regular season; In games 1, 44 , 65 and 71. Sakic had but 2 points in those 4 games, a goal and a assist while Forsberg was held to a single goal.
Now tell everyone what happened when these two teams met again that same season in a best of 7 playoff series. Actually allow me; The Avs handily beat the Wings 4 games to 2. With Sakic absolutely annihilating the best Wings team of all time to the toon of 4 goals and 10 points with Forsberg chipping in a pair of goals and assists, both FAR surpassing their regular season numbers.
Regular Season
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
4
1
1
2
0.50
Forsberg
4
0
1
1
0.25
Totals
8
1
2
3
0.38
Playoff best of 7
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
6
4
6
10
1.67
Forsberg
6
2
2
4
0.67
Totals
12
6
8
14
1.17
So precisely what predictive value did the regular season results between these two teams and two players have in their performance in the best-of-7 playoff series which occurred between them in the exact same season? Zip, Zero, Zilch, Nada, Nothing, Absolutely Worthless.
Feds is a great player. Versatile, can play any situation. But one player alone even Gretzky or Lemieux doesn’t tilt the ice in most cases. If that were the case they would have 8 cups each. With that said, the offence of the pens would eat up the redwings. Jag, Crosby and Lemieux some of the best puck possession players in the last 40 years. The amount of penalties they would draw in todays No Hit League would sink any team.
The deal is, Pittsburgh defense ISN'T that bad -- top four of Gonchar, Coffey, Carlyle, and Murphy are good defensively and are probably the most offensive group of 4 dman ever assembled. Add in the BEST group of forwards of all time and the issue comes down to decent goaltending -- Barrasso circa 91-92 should be good enough that these penguins take the series.
I don't see how the penguins dont score 4+ goals a game.
I know you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about here because unfortunately for you I actually DID the research on this exact topic. In a thread I posted on last year I specifically analyzed how Lemieux performed against both the best and worst defensive teams in the league in 1992-93(yeah, I'm thorough).
In 1992-93 the top 12 best defensive teams in the league allowed 3281 goals against while the 12 worst defensive teams allowed 4030 Goals against. Players scored 44.9% of their goals against the best defensive teams and 55.1% against the worst. This means a player should be expected to score at a rate of 89.8% of their average scoring rate against the best and 110.2% against the worst.
Now take another guess how Mario faired, I hope you got it right this time because you guessed wrong the first time around;
Lemieux 92-93
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
1.04
2.48
90.4%
92.9%
89.8%
Vs Bottom half
1.24
2.82
107.8%
105.6%
110.2%
Mario scored goals and gathered points at a rate higher than the league norm against the best defensive teams in the league.
For the record here's how Gretzky's 83-84 season compares;
Gretzky 83-84
GPG
PPG
rate vs seasonal GPG
rate vs seasonal PPG
Expected %
Vs Top half
0.77
2.23
65.0%
80.6%
88.9%
Vs Bottom half
1.45
3.14
123.3%
113.2%
111.1%
Gretzky heavily beat up on the weaker defensive teams in the league that season. Though interestingly enough that still doesn't stop most people from ranking it as the greatest offensive season of all time.
Here are their splits if there's any doubt, by all means do the math yourself.
Do you have any other uneducated guesses you want to throw out there?
I'm not sure how you don't understand how meaningless these games are as a predictive value. First off your using games outside of Mario's peak which is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Secondly and even more relevantly you're placing a ridiculously exaggerated value on essentially 4 or 6 comparatively meaningless regular season gamesspread out over several years and trying to suggest that this somehow is an accurate predictor of how these two teams and two players would perform if they met in a best on best series while they were at the peak of their abilities. It's a laughable argument and one easily proven to be false, case in point;
Your Red Wings beat the Avs 3 times in 4 games over the course of the 1995-96 regular season; In games 1, 44 , 65 and 71. Sakic had but 2 points in those 4 games, a goal and a assist while Forsberg was held to a single goal.
Now tell everyone what happened when these two teams met again that same season in a best of 7 playoff series. Actually allow me; The Avs handily beat the Wings 4 games to 2. With Sakic absolutely annihilating the best Wings team of all time to the toon of 4 goals and 10 points with Forsberg chipping in a pair of goals and assists, both FAR surpassing their regular season numbers.
Regular Season
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
4
1
1
2
0.50
Forsberg
4
0
1
1
0.25
Totals
8
1
2
3
0.38
Playoff best of 7
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
6
4
6
10
1.67
Forsberg
6
2
2
4
0.67
Totals
12
6
8
14
1.17
So precisely what predictive value did the regular season results between these two teams and two players have in their performance in the best-of-7 playoff series which occurred between them in the exact same season? Zip, Zero, Zilch, Nada, Nothing, Absolutely Worthless.
Here's what the same seasons look like if you include ES points, and divide the league into thirds based on Team GA. For 1993, I further separated the 3 expansion teams.
Gretzky 83-84
GP
PTS
ESP
PPG
ESP/G
Top 7
17
37
24
2.18
1.41
Mid 7
21
58
41
2.76
1.95
Bot 7
36
110
70
3.06
1.94
Lemieux 92-93
GP
PTS
ESP
PPG
ESP/G
Top 7
12
27
17
2.25
1.42
Mid 7
23
61
38
2.65
1.65
Bot 7
20
54
30
2.70
1.50
Exp 3
5
18
11
3.60
2.20
Lemieux is potentially the most dangerous man in this matchup, but you might be overstating even his scoring abilities.
Lemieux was more reliant on the powerplay and less consistent of an even strength scorer than suggested.
Lemieux obviously didn't hold back against the Sens and Sharks - he just didn't manage to score against some of the other low end teams at even strength, although the high PP environment let him smooth out his overall PPG. 84 Gretzky had 1 ESP over 4 games against the Isles and Bruins, putting him over 1.9 ESPPG over 70 games vs the other 18 teams. Beating the bottom half in your data may have something to do with the Norris teams being among the few that gave the Oilers a high number of PP chances.
Even if we stick to the 1988-93 version of Lemieux, he's still a hit or miss player. Lemieux had a magnificent day in 1989 scoring 8 points in Game 5 against the Flyers - and then over his next ten playoff games he's a -11 while scoring 0 goals and 2 assists at even strength. That extends into the first round of his first Conn Smythe playoff run - which started with 2 ES points and a -3 over 7 games against the 1991 Devils. The Penguins wouldn't have made it out of the first round if they relied on Lemieux's ES scoring.
Most of the great Wings of the last 40 years have been good at staying out of the penalty box. If they managed to do that in this matchup, there is a fair chance Lemieux could be held to a reasonable point total at even strength - and he might end up as a minus player to boot.
Btw did you really think we wouldn't delve more into this for increased context?
Lemeiux vs Fedorov head to head;
Date
Lemieux
Fedorov
1991-92
Jan 16
0-1-1 0
0-1-1 -2
Mar 24
1-2-3 +2
1-1-2 -1
1992-93
Oct 22
3-2-5 +1
1-1-2 -1
Nov 13
0-0-0 -1
1-1-2 +2
1995-96
Jan 5
1-2-3 +1
1-1-2 0
Feb 3
0-0-0 -2
1-2-3 +3
1996-97
Feb 8
2-0-2 -1
0-1-1 0
Feb 27
0-0-0 0
1-0-1 0
2002-03
Oct 25
0-2-2 -2
3-0-3 +3
Mar 18
0-0-0 -3
2-1-3 +2
The argument that norrisnick is trying to present is that Fedorov was "better than" and "could contain Lemieux" thanks in large part to ranking up 5 goals and 6 point in 2002-03 while the 110 point Wings beat up on the 65 point Pens. Bravo on Fedorov for out scoring a well past his prime age 37 Lemieux playing on the second worst team in the league
In the games that actually matter for the purpose of this conversation while Lemieux was at his absolute peak, Feds "contained" him to just 4 goals and 9 points in 4 games; all 4 of those goals and 8 points of which came in 3 games(2.67ppg) while Stevens and Tocchet were his line mates.
And No, Mario was no longer at his physical peak by 1995-96.
That conversation has already been had on this site here;
I'm working on a long thread and I had a question that needs to be answered before I can move forward. I'm sure there will never be an absolute consensus but I would at least like to know the majority thinks. The problem I've run into is determining if certain seasons were still part of the...
The funny thing about the games you selected as actually mattering is that the Wings are 2-1-1 over the Penguins in four Barrasso vs. Cheveldae games. Lemieux having 9 points is nice, but that means less when Fedorov had 7. Sure Lemieux gets a lot of mileage out of the 5 point game, but none of those points helped in the 8-0 loss a month later. And if you're saying Fedorov can't stop Lemieux because of the 5 point game (which was immediately followed by a 0-point game) we should note that Fedorov was never held to 0 points, and that is part of the bargain with Lemieux too.
Pitt is stacked up front maybe more than Detroit. Detroit probably has it on d and goaltending. It also depends on what era we are playing in. Is it a best of 7 series or just one game like the regular season?
Kevin Stevens is garbage. He's the Rob Brown of his time with the Pens.
Now that I have that out of my system. Even as a Wings fan it's hard to bet against Lemieux. We saw Crosby get his lunch fed to him by Zetterberg in 09 playoffs. Could a healthy Datsuk have shut down Malkin? I think so. Can the best Federov shut down the best Lemieux? Damn that's a tall order.
Pens have a firepower advantage up front, but the Wings team have ample firepower as well, and they are much more balanced and have shutdown forwards that Pens just don’t have.
On defense, the Red Wings have a huge advantage in terms of two-way and defensive prowess. They have ample offense and physicality on the back end as well. The Pens just have a bunch of OFD/PMDs with the exception of guys like Orpik (lol). Big mismatch.
Goaltending is another big mismatch favouring the Red Wings.
As for coaching, the Red Wings have a big advantage, yet again.
The Pens are essentially all offense. I think the Wings shutdown guys would be able to stifle the Pens’ firepower enough for the Wings to take over the games and return fire with their own potent offense.
Here's what the same seasons look like if you include ES points, and divide the league into thirds based on Team GA. For 1993, I further separated the 3 expansion teams.
Ok, I guess that's another way of doing it. Although I'm not sure exactly what purpose it serves to split the categories up into three groups rather than two. There were 21 teams in the league in 1983-84, considering the Oilers were the exact middle team defensively logically it makes sense to split the teams into two categories - those better than them defensively and those worse.
Also why exactly are you suddenly changing the parameters and isolating the 3 expansion teams into their own category for 92-93? Were they not still NHL teams? Or do goals scored against them somehow go in their own special category, like a golden goal in soccer??
Secondly it's not just the players performance against specific teams that matters it's the quantity of games as well. It's not just that Gretz scored more against weaker teams, he also had the advantage of playing a higher percentage of his games against them. For instance he played 19 games against 3 cumulatively even worst defensive teams than the 3 expansion teams of 92-93 and racked up a staggering 57 points against them. (WIN, LA & PIT had 1140GA in 240gm vs the 3 expansion teams 1141GA in 252gm) Indeed the Oilers had a weak schedule in 83-84 by defensive metrics, notably worse than the Penguins of '93.
Totals isolated on the teams Lemieux & Gretzky specifically faced in their games;
League Average
WG/ML Opponents
Difference from the norm
GPG
PP/Gm
GPG allowed
PP/Gm allowed
GPG
PP/Gm
83-84 Oilers
3.94
0.89
4.09
0.94
+0.15
+0.05
92-93 Pens
3.63
1.03
3.63
1.00
=0.00
-0.03
Lemieux meanwhile played in a mere 5 games against those expansion teams, which was by far the fewest any of the top scorers had.
Player
Games
PT Totals
1
Yzerman
13
28
T2
Gilmour
16
27
-
Fleury
14
27
-
Lafontine
11
27
5
Selanne
14
24
T6
Bure
12
23
-
Oates
11
23
8
Francis
13
22
T9
Robitalle
12
20
-
Roenick
12
20
-
Sakic
12
20
T12
Andreychuk
12
19
-
Recchi
7
19
T14
Sundin
14
18
-
Janney
12
18
-
Hull
12
18
-
Mogilny
9
18
-
Lemieux
5
18
T19
Juneau
11
16
-
Stevens
8
16
-
Turgeon
7
15
-
Tocchet
8
10
Five games is a comparatively trivial sample size and carries little weight overall compared to a 20 or 30 game sample and would naturally be subject to a greater amount of variance.
Even if we stick to the 1988-93 version of Lemieux, he's still a hit or miss player. Lemieux had a magnificent day in 1989 scoring 8 points in Game 5 against the Flyers - and then over his next ten playoff games he's a -11 while scoring 0 goals and 2 assists at even strength. That extends into the first round of his first Conn Smythe playoff run - which started with 2 ES points and a -3 over 7 games against the 1991 Devils.
Um, that's a stretch two years apart... it's hardly consecutive in any sense of the word except perhaps in the playoff game logs of hockey reference. By the start of the Jersey series Lemieux had been back for just about 2 months after being off for nearly a year, I think it's safe to say he wasn't quite 100% at that point yet.
Yes hockey is a team sport after all. I don't think any team would ever completely rely on a single player alone, no matter if they were the best to ever lace up a pair of blades.
And did Gretzky never have any bad playoff series while at his peak?
- 1983 Stanley Cup Finals; 0 goals 4 assists -3
- 1987 Conference Finals; 0 goals 2 assists -2
In one 10-game stretch during that playoff run he had just 1 goal and 8 points. Even the greatest players of all time can have a poor stretch of playoff games.
Now what did Lemieux do after that? In the series that came after, far more important than the first round; 36 points in the final 3 series, the second most ever by anyone from round 2 to 4. 21 of those at ES in 16 games and he followed that up with 14 ES pts in 14 games during the next playoff season - and no I'm not counting that one game where he was axe-chopped by that douche Graves 5 minutes into a game. That's about as good as anyone has ever.
The funny thing about the games you selected as actually mattering is that the Wings are 2-1-1 over the Penguins in four Barrasso vs. Cheveldae games. Lemieux having 9 points is nice, but that means less when Fedorov had 7. Sure Lemieux gets a lot of mileage out of the 5 point game, but none of those points helped in the 8-0 loss a month later. And if you're saying Fedorov can't stop Lemieux because of the 5 point game (which was immediately followed by a 0-point game) we should note that Fedorov was never held to 0 points, and that is part of the bargain with Lemieux too.
Secondly and even more relevantly you're placing a ridiculously exaggerated value on essentially 4 or 6 comparatively meaningless regular season gamesspread out over several years and trying to suggest that this somehow is an accurate predictor of how these two teams and two players would perform if they met in a best on best series while they were at the peak of their abilities. It's a laughable argument and one easily proven to be false, case in point;
Your Red Wings beat the Avs 3 times in 4 games over the course of the 1995-96 regular season; In games 1, 44 , 65 and 71. Sakic had but 2 points in those 4 games, a goal and a assist while Forsberg was held to a single goal.
Now tell everyone what happened when these two teams met again that same season in a best of 7 playoff series. Actually allow me; The Avs handily beat the Wings 4 games to 2. With Sakic absolutely annihilating the best Wings team of all time to the toon of 4 goals and 10 points with Forsberg chipping in a pair of goals and assists, both FAR surpassing their regular season numbers.
Regular Season
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
4
1
1
2
0.50
Forsberg
4
0
1
1
0.25
Totals
8
1
2
3
0.38
Playoff best of 7
Gm
G
A
PT
PPG
Sakic
6
4
6
10
1.67
Forsberg
6
2
2
4
0.67
Totals
12
6
8
14
1.17
So precisely what predictive value did the regular season results between these two teams and two players have in their performance in the best-of-7 playoff series which occurred between them in the exact same season? Zip, Zero, Zilch, Nada, Nothing, Absolutely Worthless.
Honestly when I read the poll I said "has to be the Pens because Mario, Sid, Jar and Malkin are just too good," but when I actually looked at the lineups (especially NorrisNick's Detroit Mod), I went with the Wings. I think that the wings have better depth, better D and better goaltending. Lemieux > Yzerman, Sid> Lidstrom, and Jagr > Fedorov. Datsyuk vs Malkin I think both teams take their guy. After that though, I feel like Detroit has a pretty consistent edge in player quality. Seems like a coin flip either way though.
Hossa from 08 and 09 should probably be on both teams as well haha. I like imagining him lining up against himself.
Kevin Stevens is garbage. He's the Rob Brown of his time with the Pens.
Now that I have that out of my system. Even as a Wings fan it's hard to bet against Lemieux. We saw Crosby get his lunch fed to him by Zetterberg in 09 playoffs. Could a healthy Datsuk have shut down Malkin? I think so. Can the best Federov shut down the best Lemieux? Damn that's a tall order.
Thanks for your insight. but to touch on your Federov comment, no player in the history of the NHL can contain Lemieux one on one. ive seen 3 different youtube clips of Lemieux owning Bourque, Lidstrom and a young Pronger on 3 different plays. Feds would have no shot and would need help from a second player. But once that happens Lemieux dishes it off to an open Jagr or Crosby, or Lemieux draws a penalty.
The vast majority of coaching is dependent on the players available. Being able to send Lidstrom or Fedorov or Chelios or Konstantinov or Zetterberg or whoever over the boards to counter what Pittsburgh is doing beats out the inverse. What's Pittsburgh Bowman going to do to counter Detroit? "Get out there and score" isn't really the trickiest strategy.
And surprisingly no mention of how the Wings lost the '09 Cup because of the unfair expectation that teams have to play their next playoff series regardless of how tired/injured they are.
I'm going to have to go ahead and sort of disagree with you on this. Think a better skating Cam Neely. Stevens was the real deal, but only for a short time. Huge but could move. Great nose for the net. Not just a product of Mario.
And surprisingly no mention of how the Wings lost the '09 Cup because of the unfair expectation that teams have to play their next playoff series regardless of how tired/injured they are.
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