Series Talk: Pens vs. Habs --- THIS IS IT!!

[Peat]

You're right I'm mixing some stuff up, I'm getting Bjugstad and Brassard mixed up. The Penguins ran a lot with Sheary-Brassard-Hornqvist in 2018, and you're also right with Sheary-Sheahan-Hornqvist.

That's fair to question Sheary in that way, but Sheary has looked great since coming back to the Penguins. Whether Sheary stays depends on how he does in the playoffs, so if he does well, I think you have to find a way to make it work. Especially if he's willing to re-sign at a good price.

NST is telling me Sheary-Brassard-Hornqvist only saw 1:25 together. Iirc, Sheary-Brassard was mainly with Kessel, which must be the most offensive minded third line Sully's ever put out.

Sheary's definitely been the best sniping, buzzing, passes through the dangerous areas version of himself so far since the resumption of play this season.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Apparently there were worse looking power plays out there.

 

[Empoleon8771]

NST is telling me Sheary-Brassard-Hornqvist only saw 1:25 together. Iirc, Sheary-Brassard was mainly with Kessel, which must be the most offensive minded third line Sully's ever put out.

Sheary's definitely been the best sniping, buzzing, passes through the dangerous areas version of himself so far since the resumption of play this season.

Are those just looking at regular season numbers or playoff numbers too?

I'm trying to remember specifics, but I do remember Sheary and Brassard playing a good amount together. I didn't think it was with Kessel though, because I remember the Sheary-Brassard combination being on the 4th line in the playoffs. I do specifically remember that Rust was on Crosby's line, and I think Kessel was on L2 and Hornqvist was on L3 for the most part.

Edit: looking at the playoff numbers, Sheary and Brassard did play a ton together. The RW on that line was Rust about 50% of the time and a mixture of guys like Kuhnhackl (which was great in the playoffs), Kessel (which was absolutely heinously bad in the playoffs), ZAR and such. No Hornqvist, though. Sheary and Brassard without Kessel was pretty damn good in the playoffs I'd say.

 

[Peat]

Are those just looking at regular season numbers or playoff numbers too?

I'm trying to remember specifics, but I do remember Sheary and Brassard playing a good amount together. I didn't think it was with Kessel though, because I remember the Sheary-Brassard combination being on the 4th line in the playoffs. I do specifically remember that Rust was on Crosby's line, and I think Kessel was on L2 and Hornqvist was on L3 for the most part.

Regular season, but 19 seconds in the playoffs.

RS, Sheary-Brassard-Kessel was his most regular line according to Dobber, with Sheahan as the LW followed by Rust and Simon next. POs, Brassard was with Rust and Sheary for 38% of the time, then Kuhnhackl and Sheary and Kessel and Sheary for about 10% each, then a bunch of other stuff.

 

[vikingGoalie]

i know none of the players would want that or try to lose..same with management...I’m just saying, as a fan, I don’t see the Pens as good enough to win the Cup and I’d like them to have a better chance at Lafreniere

I disagree. The key(s), imo, Sid playing near 100% and goal tending not crapping the bed. Of course no more suicide passes like Geno did yesterday.

This roster when healthy and clicking is arguably better then any team in league, we proved that and then injuries caught up with us. I for one am hopeful that we can go far in the playoffs. Of course you need a few breaks along the way to win a cup. But we have just as much chance to win this as Boston imo. Boston being the team we have to make it through to come out of the east most likely.

Out west, if vegas starts clicking and the goaltending is solid (do not start a fleury thread here) i see them coming out of the west. I would be WILDLY entertained by a vegas/pittsburgh final but quite a bit of hockey to play and we must remember there is a bit of luck that goes your way usually when you win a cup.

 

[Andy99]

The Penguins are inarguably good enough to win a cup, though. If they maintain their 5v5 play to the level it can be and have a functional powerplay and goaltending, this team is definitely going deep and can win a cup.

ok, well now you’re changing things up because you previously stated that their game was good enough to get to the 2nd or 3rd round, which is not the Cup...if the Pens have a 5% chance of winning the Cup (they now have to go 5 rounds) but a 12.5% chance at the first overall pick, it’s very sound logic to say they’re better off losing to MTL...

 

[Empoleon8771]

ok, well now you’re changing things up because you previously stated that their game was good enough to get to the 2nd or 3rd round, which is not the Cup...if the Pens have a 5% chance of winning the Cup (they now have to go 5 rounds) but a 12.5% chance at the first overall pick, it’s very sound logic to say they’re better off losing to MTL...

I said that their game with a completely dysfunctional PP was good enough to get to the 2nd or 3rd round. If they play every game like last night, which included that horrible powerplay, they're making it to the 2nd or 3rd round. They need the powerplay going to go deeper than that.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

 

[Peat]

ok, well now you’re changing things up because you previously stated that their game was good enough to get to the 2nd or 3rd round, which is not the Cup...if the Pens have a 5% chance of winning the Cup (they now have to go 5 rounds) but a 12.5% chance at the first overall pick, it’s very sound logic to say they’re better off losing to MTL...

I said that their game with a completely dysfunctional PP was good enough to get to the 2nd or 3rd round. If they play every game like last night, which included that horrible powerplay, they're making it to the 2nd or 3rd round. They need the powerplay going to go deeper than that.

I also took it to mean the game they played against Phillie in the first competitive game, not their overall game. Realistically this post-season is an arms race to see who can hit peak performance first.

Honestly, odds wise, we probably are better going for it vs Montreal. The Athletic's odds suggest Lafreniere on a contender would add about 4.4% to the chances of winning a Cup over the first 7 years (which they put as a jump from 6 to 10) for us. Since that only happens 12.5% of the time, I think losing to Montreal only increases our odds of winning in the next 7 years by 3.25% (12.5% of the cumulative 28.1%, right?). Athletic gives us a 5% chance of winning it all if we beat Montreal.

 

[Andy99]

I said that their game with a completely dysfunctional PP was good enough to get to the 2nd or 3rd round. If they play every game like last night, which included that horrible powerplay, they're making it to the 2nd or 3rd round. They need the powerplay going to go deeper than that.

I’m not saying things won’t get better than the exhibition game with their play, especially on the PP, but the team last night looked a lot like the team that lost to the Isles and the team that played in Feb-March this year when they went 3-7 or something...the PP was bad all year...that game was not a one off....people here are jumping hoops, based on how the team looks on paper, to get them to have a great chance at the Cup...but maybe they’re showing us what they really are...if the well structured defensive team from December (which btw scored a ton with Jake-G-Rust too) showed up, I’d like our chances a lot...but the team from March will not win the Cup...sure we can get lucky and play out of our minds but the chances of that are looking pretty slim, and that’s not to say we couldn’t beat MTL...but frankly, I’d rather lose the play-in ... like people, teams show you what they are...you can choose to ignore it and hope the person/team will change but that only gets you into relationship trouble..lol

 

[Gurglesons]

@ColePens full quote from ZAR about Montreal L1

“Any team, (when) you go against their superstars, it’s going to be the same thing,” Aston-Reese said. “They’re all skilled players. You have to play a gritty game and a hard game. Make it tough for them. It’s little details. Finishing every check. Get in their way. Slow them down.”

Sounds better.

 

[RSPens]

How does the round robin even work I'm totally confused by it...act like you're telling it to a child because apparently I'm drawing a blank here

The top 4 teams in each conference will play a round robin to determine the 1-4 seeds in the conference. The next 8 teams in the conference are playing in the qualifying round. I'm not exactly sure how the teams winning the qualifying round will be seeded.

 

[Peat]

I’m not saying things won’t get better than the exhibition game with their play, especially on the PP, but the team last night looked a lot like the team that lost to the Isles and the team that played in Feb-March this year when they went 3-7 or something...the PP was bad all year...that game was not a one off....people here are jumping hoops, based on how the team looks on paper, to get them to have a great chance at the Cup...but maybe they’re showing us what they really are...if the well structured defensive team from December (which btw scored a ton with Jake-G-Rust too) showed up, I’d like our chances a lot...but the team from March will not win the Cup...sure we can get lucky and play out of our minds but the chances of that are looking pretty slim, and that’s not to say we couldn’t beat MTL...but frankly, I’d rather lose the play-in ... like people, teams show what they are...you can choose to ignore it and hope the person/team will change but that only gets you into relationship trouble..lol

I just don't think it was as bad as you. I think not only did we get better every period, I think we saw good stuff every period. And while I'm happy to explain why I think what I think, I don't see any hoops to jump about 2-2 with a good Flyers team after 60 where we edged the 5v5 chances. It's not like we got shelled by the Red Wings.

Defensive structure is one of the big starting points - well, we kept the Flyers to the lowest xGF out of any team playing last night at 5v5, and the Flyers were a long way from the worst team playing. Their 16 shots was 2nd lowest, their 4 high danger chances was 2nd lowest. Yes, we had some breakdowns, but every team's going to have some and by the numbers, we didn't have that many. Which honestly matched my eye-test. I thought we got back quick, I thought we were good about getting low and forcing them back up to the points, we were aggressive pressuring them... if the starting point of a cup run for us if team defence, Geno and Sid, I thought we ticked at least one. By the numbers, we saw December's team, not the vs Islanders team.

Did we struggle a bit with Philadelphia's defensive structure, both in terms of avoiding the forecheck and beating the trap? Sure, a bit, and we looked better when the team said "screw this, we'll just dump and chase" (this team is statistically a very good dump and chase team which I don't think should surprise anyone, it shouldn't be afraid of that). But that's the sort of execution thing that I think is always going to be hard on bad ice with rusty hands. Not like Philadelphia didn't struggle a bit at times either. I think this part will come. And if it takes a while, then the defensive game we saw last night, the effort we saw in the third, and our ability to create chances and chaos around the net just from good old dump and chase should give us a while.

 

[Empoleon8771]

@ColePens full quote from ZAR about Montreal L1

“Any team, (when) you go against their superstars, it’s going to be the same thing,” Aston-Reese said. “They’re all skilled players. You have to play a gritty game and a hard game. Make it tough for them. It’s little details. Finishing every check. Get in their way. Slow them down.”

Sounds better.

So basically it was just a bullshit quote from a Montreal reporter to try and stir up drama.

 

[Andy99]

The top 4 teams in each conference will play a round robin to determine the 1-4 seeds in the conference. The next 8 teams in the conference are playing in the qualifying round. I'm not exactly sure how the teams winning the qualifying round will be seeded.

teams winning the qualifying round will be seeded as they are seeded now, that is, higher seeds like the Pens will face the #4 in the round robin....the lowest seed, let’s say MTL wins, would face the #1 seed coming out of the round robin

 

[Jaded-Fan]

The top 4 teams in each conference will play a round robin to determine the 1-4 seeds in the conference. The next 8 teams in the conference are playing in the qualifying round. I'm not exactly sure how the teams winning the qualifying round will be seeded.

I believe that the seeding for the play in rounds is based on power play proficiency.

 

[EightyOne]

Part of the f*** the Habs, their media, and their fans mentality lol

 

[Gurglesons]

So basically it was just a bullshit quote from a Montreal reporter to try and stir up drama.

Surprise surprise lol

 

[Khelandros]

I wonder if playing a hand full of games before the next round will be a good thing for us. We will have some games to work out some kinks. Where as whokev we play next will have only had one game to get the Ball rollin'

There is also a round robin seeding for the other teams. So including the one exhibition game that each team plays, the other teams play 4 games. At worst this is 2 games less than the 6 a team playing in the qualifying round may have to play or is equal to the 4 if they sweep their opponent.

You two should really do some reading.
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-restart-storylines-1.5665102

 

[Andy99]

I just don't think it was as bad as you. I think not only did we get better every period, I think we saw good stuff every period. And while I'm happy to explain why I think what I think, I don't see any hoops to jump about 2-2 with a good Flyers team after 60 where we edged the 5v5 chances. It's not like we got shelled by the Red Wings.

Defensive structure is one of the big starting points - well, we kept the Flyers to the lowest xGF out of any team playing last night at 5v5, and the Flyers were a long way from the worst team playing. Their 16 shots was 2nd lowest, their 4 high danger chances was 2nd lowest. Yes, we had some breakdowns, but every team's going to have some and by the numbers, we didn't have that many. Which honestly matched my eye-test. I thought we got back quick, I thought we were good about getting low and forcing them back up to the points, we were aggressive pressuring them... if the starting point of a cup run for us if team defence, Geno and Sid, I thought we ticked at least one. By the numbers, we saw December's team, not the vs Islanders team.

Did we struggle a bit with Philadelphia's defensive structure, both in terms of avoiding the forecheck and beating the trap? Sure, a bit, and we looked better when the team said "screw this, we'll just dump and chase" (this team is statistically a very good dump and chase team which I don't think should surprise anyone, it shouldn't be afraid of that). But that's the sort of execution thing that I think is always going to be hard on bad ice with rusty hands. Not like Philadelphia didn't struggle a bit at times either. I think this part will come. And if it takes a while, then the defensive game we saw last night, the effort we saw in the third, and our ability to create chances and chaos around the net just from good old dump and chase should give us a while.

I didn’t see a lot of dump and chase except from the 4th line until the third...and I thought our defensive coverage too was pretty good with some mistakes...it’s why most of the game looked like last year’s POs to me...Sid and G would rather score off the rush...we had this discussion in the previous incarnation of this thread...the guys must be invested in beating the trap with ugly hockey and hard hard work, and if they don’t get that by the MTL series, I’d rather they just lose it...

it’s funny...I watched parts of the other two games and I thought overall (2 out of 3 periods) that the Pens looked like worst of the supposed contending teams...I’m excluding MTL and Calgary which aren’t expected to do much...in other words, to my eye, the Leafs, Philly and EDM were much better than the Pens...

 

[Andy99]

So basically it was just a bullshit quote from a Montreal reporter to try and stir up drama.

It wasn’t a made up quote but it was taken out of context...

 

[Andy99]

Good breakdown...it shows that JJ needs to get the bleep outta here, which is a total surprise...

What To Expect When You're Expecting Penguins Hockey: The Forwards

 

[LOGiK]

Well... said it yesterday, slept on it, still feel the same way.

Flyers didn't look so hot either, but man... I wonder if any of the other teams , like the penguins, also play some of the most downright disgusting... ugliest forms of hockey and still manage to eek wins out.

They look so lost out there, yet again.... get rid of this system immediately... the guys are thinking way too much out there. Back to 2018. Can't pass 3 feet. Can't enter zones. Horrid PP. Can't stop stretch passes / breakaways .... that was very difficult and frustrating to watch yesterday.

 

[Ryder71]

If I had to rank my desired outcomes:

1) Win the Cup
2) Lose against the Habs and win the lottery
3) Win the conference, lose the SCF
4) Lose in the second round
5) Lose in the first round
6) Lose against the Habs and lose the lottery

If 6 happens, I am not keeping the pick unless I am convinced I can add a player that will help VERY soon.

Why would you not keep the pick if we're picking 15th? This is suppose to be a very deep draft. And if by chance we lose, the sooner we get a quality prospect in the fold, the better. If you wait to '21 to draft the pick, you're likely looking at a pick far later than number 15 and in a weaker draft class. Besides, you lose a year of development if you wait as well. No, if by some weird circumstance we lose to the Habs you keep the pick regardless if it's 1st or 15th.

For the record I'd rather win it all or lose now and get a high draft pick. So in your scenario I'd go 1,2,6,5,4,3.

 

[ColePens]

@ColePens full quote from ZAR about Montreal L1

“Any team, (when) you go against their superstars, it’s going to be the same thing,” Aston-Reese said. “They’re all skilled players. You have to play a gritty game and a hard game. Make it tough for them. It’s little details. Finishing every check. Get in their way. Slow them down.”

Sounds better.

I think I was the only guy defending him.