Pre-Game Talk: Pens vs Ducks: I'll believe it when I see it

[Dipsy Doodle]

DJ discussion belongs in the DJ thread. (I have a post there too)

KMN dominated the shots while they were iced for that season. Best line in the NHL goal AND shot wise. This tells me it should be a very consistent line that is tough to shut down because they don't rely on high shooting % that can negated or influenced by luck/hot goaltenders.

(we all know it basically was dominant outside of a brief playoff series where it was shut down, and I kinda remember split up early). That really isn't enough data to state it shouldn't be our first "plan B". I'd always fall back to a season's worth of success over a playoff series worth of failure.

KCD is a line that generally dominated in goals (for/against), but they did that by having a very high shooting %. See Kunitz/Duppers shooting %s last year (19.5% and 14.3%). Both of these are well above their career averages and that tells me they are unsustainable (even before looking at this year's results). Now that K&D aren't shooting at insane levels, this line is "struggling" (more like not as dominant) because they don't dominate in shots for/against.

I just don't get why this isn't the defacto, no brainer answer and why it is avoided so much by Bylsma as his plan B. It worked before, and it worked great. It won a scoring title for your center. The probability of any other line combination being "better" is very low IMO. At least "try" it. If it doesn't work, then try something else after 5-10 games. "Trying" is not 1 shift, 1 game, or even 1 week.

Alright, so for you it boils down to shots for/against, because really, the "short term lack of success in the playoffs" applies to both the KMN and KCD lines. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for the shots, because I don't have the resources or inclination to look them up, but there are other factors in play.

I actually agree with IcedCapp's breakdown. Kunitz and Neal are obviously our two best established scoring wings. We all love Bennett, but he's yet to show he can produce in a top 6 role even if we believe he will. Keeping one on Sid's line and one on Geno's balances the scoring lines a lot better than saddling Crosby with a clearly struggling Dupes and a skilled rookie still learning the ropes.

If Bennett thrives and/or DMN struggles, I could see things being changed up.

 

[cheesedanish87]

DJ discussion belongs in the DJ thread. (I have a post there too)

KMN dominated the shots while they were iced for that season. Best line in the NHL goal AND shot wise. This tells me it should be a very consistent line that is tough to shut down because they don't rely on high shooting % that can negated or influenced by luck/hot goaltenders.

(we all know it basically was dominant outside of a brief playoff series where it was shut down, and I kinda remember split up early). That really isn't enough data to state it shouldn't be our first "plan B". I'd always fall back to a season's worth of success over a playoff series worth of failure.

KCD is a line that generally dominated in goals (for/against), but they did that by having a very high shooting %. See Kunitz/Duppers shooting %s last year (19.5% and 14.3%). Both of these are well above their career averages and that tells me they are unsustainable (even before looking at this year's results). Now that K&D aren't shooting at insane levels, this line is "struggling" (more like not as dominant) because they don't dominate in shots for/against.

I just don't get why this isn't the defacto, no brainer answer and why it is avoided so much by Bylsma as his plan B. It worked before, and it worked great. It won a scoring title for your center. The probability of any other line combination being "better" is very low IMO. At least "try" it. If it doesn't work, then try something else after 5-10 games. "Trying" is not 1 shift, 1 game, or even 1 week.

I agree with you, its about doing whats best for the team, Geno hasn't been able to produce without having Kunitz and Neal as his linemates for a long time, Sid has shown he can produce with almost anyone, he made TK and Cooke look good.

 

[switch23]

Yay, KCD is broken.

But DB system need a change tho.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Dan can't put Kunitz on malkins line as that would ruin Kunitz's chance of being Sid's wing in the big O. Now being a players coach you know he is thinking that.

All this talk of Kunitz being anchored to Crosby at the Olympics makes me ill, and mad as hell, all at the same time. There are at LEAST five better options for Team Canada, and at least five better options for Crosby's left wing.


Now, the thing about Dupuis. I actually dislike him as a player and I really,really, really wish we could trade him. BUT, I've always liked his game more as a left-winger. On that side of the ice, he can simplify his game even more and play more to his strengths.

It doesn't make ANY sense whatsoever to play a guy who cannot one-time a pass, who OFTEN swings and misses completely, on his off-wing! That's like using a pitcher to pinch-hit late in a tie ball game. Square peg, round hole.

 

[wgknestrick]

I'll take a stab at it (I'm not Bylsma and it's clear we never think alike, so whatever):

Kunitz isn't the problem on the Crosby line (2nd line, as you call it, because Malkin), Dupuis was.

With James Neal's improved play this year, there are two legitimate, top-6 power forward wingers on this team: Kunitz and Neal.

Moving Kunitz from Crosby's line (the second line, as you put it, because Malkin) does more damage to the second line than it does good to the Malkin line.

As others have pointed out in the past, Dupuis and Kunitz are very similar. If you remove the offensive skill from Kunitz, you get Pascal Dupuis, in a lot of ways.

So perhaps they are trying to add some of what Kunitz brings to the table without totally neutering the highest scoring 2nd liner.

In other words: maybe they are trying to balance the lineup, rather than stack Malkin's line and telling Crosby to *puts on glasses* Deal with it.

I absolutely think that the #1 priority would be to "kickstart" Malkin. He is playing well below where he is capable so far this year. Crosby (while also in a mini slump of his own) is not playing near as poorly as Malkin has.

The delta is larger IMO to get Malkin playing well than it is to get Crosby "maximized". I also point to the past where Crosby has played well with many different (and low quality for top 6) linemates like Billy G, Cooke, and Armstrong. He also maintained his productivity while playing with these players.

I think maximizing the "sum" of Malkin and Crosby's production is the important thing here. Malkin is much more broken than Crosby at the moment. Malkin isn't even scoring 5v5 points at a top 6 level (<1.5/60min). Tyler Kennedy is scoring more 5v5 points / min than Malkin

Does anyone think this is just Malkin's new talent level and he should be ignored in preference of Crosby? If you fix Malkin, you could easily double his current production. You aren't going to double Crosby's.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I absolutely think that the #1 priority would be to "kickstart" Malkin. He is playing well below where he is capable so far this year. Crosby (while also in a mini slump of his own) is not playing near as poorly as Malkin has.

The delta is larger IMO to get Malkin playing well than it is to get Crosby "maximized". I also point to the past where Crosby has played well with many different (and low quality for top 6) linemates like Billy G, Cooke, and Armstrong. He also maintained his productivity while playing with these players.

I think maximizing the "sum" of Malkin and Crosby's production is the important thing here. Malkin is much more broken than Crosby at the moment. Malkin isn't even scoring 5v5 points at a top 6 level (<1.5/60min). Tyler Kennedy is scoring more 5v5 points / min than Malkin

Does anyone think this is just Malkin's new talent level and he should be ignored in preference of Crosby? If you fix Malkin, you could easily double his current production. You aren't going to double Crosby's.

I think the key here is that neither Crosby nor Malkin has been producing at ES for several games, in spite of Crosby having shown he's capable of doing more with less in the past.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

There are two ways to look at this:

1) Malkin's numbers are nowhere near where they need to be, Crosby is still among the league leaders in points. Malkin needs to be fixed first.

or...

2) Crosby's the meal ticket, and the engine that makes this team purr. When he was going, even if Malkin was subpar, we were winning. Crosby needs to be fixed first.


Personally, I don't care. We need BOTH going to contend.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I think the key here is that neither Crosby nor Malkin has been producing at ES for several games, in spite of Crosby having shown he's capable of doing more with less in the past.

The main reason Sid hasn't produced lately is because hes not finishing his chances, he could easily have another 5 to 8 goals this year.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

There are two ways to look at this:

1) Malkin's numbers are nowhere near where they need to be, Crosby is still among the league leaders in points. Malkin needs to be fixed first.

or...

2) Crosby's the meal ticket, and the engine that makes this team purr. When he was going, even if Malkin was subpar, we were winning. Crosby needs to be fixed first.


Personally, I don't care. We need BOTH going to contend.

If we are to get a shot at winning a Cup, both have to play at their absolute best, indeed.

Moving Bennett up to the first line is a step in the right direction. I would have moved Dupuis down to the third line though and went with: Jokinen - Crosby - Bennett, Kunitz - Malkin - Neal, Dupuis - Sutter - whoeverByslmacallsupthisweek, Glass - Vitale - Adams

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The main reason Sid hasn't produced lately is because hes not finishing his chances, he could easily have another 5 to 8 goals this year.

I disagree. I really don't think Sid's looked good at all over this last stretch.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

It's one practice so I'm not gonna get my hopes up too high.

I just have visions of BB not scoring on his first shift and being put on the 3rd line about 10 min in.

 

[wgknestrick]

Alright, so for you it boils down to shots for/against, because really, the "short term lack of success in the playoffs" applies to both the KMN and KCD lines. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for the shots, because I don't have the resources or inclination to look them up, but there are other factors in play.

I actually agree with IcedCapp's breakdown. Kunitz and Neal are obviously our two best established scoring wings. We all love Bennett, but he's yet to show he can produce in a top 6 role even if we believe he will. Keeping one on Sid's line and one on Geno's balances the scoring lines a lot better than saddling Crosby with a clearly struggling Dupes and a skilled rookie still learning the ropes.

If Bennett thrives and/or DMN struggles, I could see things being changed up.

Nothing wrong with anyone's breakdown. Neal and Kunitz ARE our 2 best wings. Malkin has been shown to either be an elite center, or just a fringe all star center in this league (depending on who he plays with).

I don't really care if it makes logical sense to split (or not split) our 2 best wingers along 2 lines. There isn't much of a difference in our top 6 wingers. There is a HUGE difference in Malkin with /without Kunitz. Your priority is to have 2 ELITE centers, not 1 elite center, and 1 that shouldn't make the all star team. This gives you 2 balanced lines, even though the wings may not be "balanced". I am concerned about PRODUCTION, and end result. You can have the most logical team makeup, but that doesn't guarantee results. I'll try to show results below.



5v5 points / min

Malkin with Kunitz
2012: 3.46

Malkin without Kunitz
2014: 1.27
2013: 1.75

2011: 2.11


Crosby with Kunitz
2014: 2.24
2013: 4.19

2011: 3.38

Crosby without Kunitz
2012: 4.65 (short season, though)

The winger's production will fall into place from there. You aren't losing much because our wingers don't have insane ceilings like Malkin and Crosby do. I don't expect Crosby's production to jump by taking Kunitz off his line, but the past showing his production not taking a hit is at least a promising piece of data. If Malkin and Crosby are both around 3 pts/60min, you have fixed the team and ALL top 6 wingers have increased their production. Those points are coming from wings.

Pens do not solve anything by "balancing" the top 6 if the production does not follow it. I think giving our 2nd best center the 2 best wings, and our best center the 3rd and 4th best wings, is kind of "balancing" the top 6 anyway.

 

[radapex]

I disagree. I really don't think Sid's looked good at all over this last stretch.

I've had the privilege of watching Crosby play hockey for 10 years, and I can't recall him ever looking as poor as he has lately. There's absolutely no jump in his step.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

I disagree. I really don't think Sid's looked good at all over this last stretch.

He hasn't looked good but he has missed on something like 4 or 5 breakaways this year. IDK about 8 more goals, but 3-5 isn't too big of a stretch to say.

 

[Mordax]

Computer rendering of Dupuis 20 games into the future:

woah. such a creepy movie that I haven't thought about in years...

 

[cheesedanish87]

I disagree. I really don't think Sid's looked good at all over this last stretch.

I would say the last 2 games Sid hasn't looked good, but he was great against the flyers, had a million chances that game.

 

[IcedCapp]

Nothing wrong with anyone's breakdown. Neal and Kunitz ARE our 2 best wings. Malkin has been shown to either be an elite center, or just a fringe all star center in this league (depending on who he plays with).

I don't really care if it makes logical sense to split our 2 best wingers along 2 lines. There isn't much of a difference in our top 6 wingers. There is a HUGE difference in Malkin with /without Kunitz. Your priority is to have 2 ELITE centers, not 1 elite center, and 1 that shouldn't make the all star team. This gives you 2 balanced lines, even though the wings may not be "balanced".



5v5 points / min

Malkin with Kunitz
2012: 3.46

Malkin without Kunitz
2014: 1.27
2013: 1.75

2011: 2.11


Crosby with Kunitz
2014: 2.24
2013: 4.19

2011: 3.38

Crosby without Kunitz
2012: 4.65 (short season, though)

The winger's production will fall into place from there. You aren't losing much because our wingers don't have insane ceilings like Malkin and Crosby do.

these stats aren't accurate/indicative of anything...

Crosby played 22 games in 2012 and some of those games (the first time he came back) were with Kunitz

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Nothing wrong with anyone's breakdown. Neal and Kunitz ARE our 2 best wings. Malkin has been shown to either be an elite center, or just a fringe all star center in this league (depending on who he plays with).

I don't really care if it makes logical sense to split our 2 best wingers along 2 lines. There isn't much of a difference in our top 6 wingers. There is a HUGE difference in Malkin with /without Kunitz. Your priority is to have 2 ELITE centers, not 1 elite center, and 1 that shouldn't make the all star team. This gives you 2 balanced lines, even though the wings may not be "balanced".

That's really where we part ways.

5v5 points / min

Malkin with Kunitz
2012: 3.46

Malkin without Kunitz
2014: 1.27
2013: 1.75

2011: 2.11


Crosby with Kunitz
2014: 2.24
2013: 4.19

2011: 3.38

Crosby without Kunitz
2012: 4.65 (short season, though)

The winger's production will fall into place from there. You aren't losing much because our wingers don't have insane ceilings like Malkin and Crosby do.

So...the sample size of Crosby w/o Kunitz is extraordinarily small, and the sample size of Malkin w/o Kunitz is weighted by both he spent w/o Neal in '10-'11, and an injury-hampered season in '12-'13.

I think when we put the advanced stats into context, they're hardly definitive. There's an argument for reuniting KMN, but I'd say there's a more compelling argument for trying to get both stars going by splitting up our best established wingers.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

He hasn't looked good but he has missed on something like 4 or 5 breakaways this year. IDK about 8 more goals, but 3-5 isn't too big of a stretch to say.

Possible. The guy hasn't been near as clinical as usual. He's usually automatic in breakaway situations.

I've had the privilege of watching Crosby play hockey for 10 years, and I can't recall him ever looking as poor as he has lately. There's absolutely no jump in his step.

Definitely missing some jump after his torrid start. Reminds me of '09-'10 Sid.

I would say the last 2 games Sid hasn't looked good, but he was great against the flyers, had a million chances that game.

I'll defer to you there...missed that game for a family birthday.

 

[Fordy]

Beau's gotta score. If he can get one in the first KCD may be dealt a deadly blow.

 

[wgknestrick]

these stats aren't accurate/indicative of anything...

Crosby played 22 games in 2012 and some of those games (the first time he came back) were with Kunitz

It is the best I can do with limited stat resources. It certainly shows the huge difference in Malkin, and that was my primary focus. It also shows that Crosby is slightly more consistent and not influenced by his linemates as much as Malkin may be.

It's also very common to discredit data when it doesn't agree with your own opinion. The only piece of data there that can be discredited is the 2012 Crosby piece and I noted it on first post. There is a legitimate argument over Malkin's good 2012 season and what caused it, though. Was it Kunitz, or Malkin's focus on training? Pen's are in trouble however, and I'm offering a solution. I don't know if it's perfect, but there is some indication and data showing that it could work.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Ogre will be happy. I am happy too, Malkin has needed a Dupuis for a while to cause some havoc and fetch him the puck.

 

[PensBandwagonerNo272*]

line changes should last for about 8 mins into the first

also - i expect to get relatively demolished by the ducks

 

[radapex]

It is the best I can do with limited resources. It certainly shows the huge difference in Malkin, and that was my primary focus.

It's entirely possible that these lines won't work anyway. Dupuis, Malkin, and Neal have a combined 7 goals in 45 games this season.

Meanwhile, the only non-callups to score less than Bennett (0G 2A in 9 GP) are D'Agostini (0G 1A in 6 GP), Scuderi (0G 1A in 11 GP) and Bortuzzo (0G 0A in 14 GP).

 

[IcedCapp]

It is the best I can do with limited stat resources. It certainly shows the huge difference in Malkin, and that was my primary focus. It also shows that Crosby is slightly more consistent and not influenced by his linemates as much as Malkin may be.

It's also very common to discredit data when it doesn't agree with your own opinion. The only piece of data there that can be discredited is the 2012 Crosby piece and I noted it on first post. There is a legitimate argument over Malkin's good 2012 season and what caused it, though. Was it Kunitz, or Malkin's focus on training? Pen's are in trouble however, and I'm offering a solution. I don't know if it's perfect, but there is some indication and data showing that it could work.

22 games doesn't show enough of anything (and it wasn't even 22 games). That's a ridiculously small sample size. I'm not discrediting it because it doesn't align with my opinion. I'm discrediting it because it's NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT.

I also have different priorities than you. I want to see the team win. You want to see Malkin do well. I'm not interested in Malkin doing poorly or well or whatever. That's not my concern. The Penguins are.