Post-Game Talk: Pens vs Bruins: Jekyll and Hyde win

[Icarium]

I still want Sully gone but the team hasn't been nearly as mentally fragile lately as it was in the last few seasons. When they fall behind, it's no longer basically an automatic loss and they have managed to protect leads better. I keep expecting the other shoe to drop and next week seems like a grand opportunity for that to happen. If it doesn't, maybe the miracle will last.

 

[Victor Z]

POJ actually looked solid. His play to get the puck in the zone and quick puck movement was instrumental and difficult and led to the Eller goal.

Here's POJ on the "great play" which led to the Eller goal.

If Graves made a pass that risky, people would be shitting all over him no matter how lucky the outcome was.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

We're .568. Last year the Isles got in as .567. Problem is that the Metro is deeper this year.
This 93 point pace probably isn't enough.
Still, we're certainly closing in. No one's ever missed with 97+ in this format

 

[orby]

It's hard to get a read on this team. Sometimes they look like an absolute juggernaut, and other times they look pathetic, just about in equal measure. I think that's typical of a bubble team, to be honest. C'est la vie.

 

[vodeni]

Count me in the group that wants DOC-Malkin-Rust.

I've talked plenty of shit about DOC, but there's no denying that the dude is a force right now. I'm not 100% convinced it will continue, but why not take advantage of it while you can? At the very least, he's big, fast, and willing to forecheck which is something that is severely missing on that line. The chemistry between Malkin-Smith was really promising at the start of the season, but it's just not there anymore.

Smith-Eller-Puusy is intriguing as well. I've seen 2 things talked about that seem to have some synergy. 1) Smith is better off the rush and 2) Eller has been great at getting it from the D zone to the O zone. Combined with that line starting so much in the D-zone, it gives them a few more chances a game to make something happen. Puusy seems to be handling the D-zone starts and gives them an extra offensive punch as well.

for as much as I think we all are right that DOC would be the best compliment to L2 along with a solid striker on the RW, I don't want to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, that being, DOC and Eller are playing great together, don't mess with that, find something else...I'd rather have Harkins on L2 as a LW and have him forecheck and have Geno and Rust play some hockeym than Smith doing absolutely nothing...=In any case, play Vinnie, Harkins, or whoever can forecheck and slowdown defense, get to the defensman before he can stretch pass or skate out of the d zone on that L2 with G and Rust, drop Smith to L4 with Acciari and Carter...I know won't happen but whats to lose...Its time to Go Bold

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's hard to get a read on this team. Sometimes they look like an absolute juggernaut, and other times they look pathetic, just about in equal measure. I think that's typical of a bubble team, to be honest. C'est la vie.

Yeah. Last year's team had much the same sorta streaky results as this year's. I think we probably see the same sorta result; barely in or barely out.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

DOC is a dawg

 

[Richard]

Wait until Karlsson gets comfortable in this system around Februaryish and we add one more quality depth player (though drew O"conner is looking like an absolute stud).

The consistency has been there people -- arent we like 8-2 in the last ten games?

Powerplay starts clicking (its looking better) this team will go on a major run in February and March.

The weakest link is the goaltending. If we get hot Jarry in April we can beat anyone. Maybe with John Malkovich as the backup (and if Sullivan uses his good sense) we can survive a crashing Jarry this year.

 

[Turin]

Wait until Karlsson gets comfortable in this system around Februaryish and we add one more quality depth player (though drew O"conner is looking like an absolute stud).

The consistency has been there people -- arent we like 8-2 in the last ten games?

Powerplay starts clicking (its looking better) this team will go on a major run in February and March.

The weakest link is the goaltending. If we get hot Jarry in April we can beat anyone. Maybe with John Malkovich as the backup (and if Sullivan uses his good sense) we can survive a crashing Jarry this year.

How is goaltending the weakest link when both goalies are top 20 in the league?

 

[Richard]

How is goaltending the weakest link when both goalies are top 20 in the league?

Because you can have a bad game once every two weeks in January, February, and March, but if you have a bad game in game 5 of the playoffs thats a ballgame. Consistency is king (which is why MAF was NOT a hall of fame goalie, especially in the playoffs). I know you will argue larger sample size but larger sample size just means a bad game returns to the mean ( ask the Seattle Mariners of the early 2000's or the Oakland A's of Billy Bean). You need to be great when its time to be great.

A guy who stops all the shots he should in the playoffs is king. Do you ever trust Jarry even with a bad angle shot from the corner in the playoffs? Do you?

Stats aren't everything.

 

[pistolpete11]

for as much as I think we all are right that DOC would be the best compliment to L2 along with a solid striker on the RW, I don't want to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, that being, DOC and Eller are playing great together, don't mess with that, find something else...I'd rather have Harkins on L2 as a LW and have him forecheck and have Geno and Rust play some hockeym than Smith doing absolutely nothing...=In any case, play Vinnie, Harkins, or whoever can forecheck and slowdown defense, get to the defensman before he can stretch pass or skate out of the d zone on that L2 with G and Rust, drop Smith to L4 with Acciari and Carter...I know won't happen but whats to lose...Its time to Go Bold

OK. Now you've gone too far

I think Eller and DOC have been playing great independent of each other. In the game before Rust came back, Eller scored assisted by Harkins and Puusy (and picked up an EN) while DOC was on L2. The game before that O'Connor scored assisted by Malkin and Smith. I don't think they need each other to play well.

Besides, a) getting more out of Malkin and Rust is far more important and b) it's not like Eller would be getting stuck with some bum. Smith has historically been a very solid player and was a very good player as recently as earlier this year.

I disagree it's time to go bold. Despite some duds, this team is winning games right now. It's time for tweaks to see if you can get certain guys going (in particular Malkin, Smith, and Rust).

 

[MrBrightside]

The division is freaking loaded. Good thing the Caps will fall off a cliff. Should help us.

We'll finish ahead of the Caps and Flyers. Will come down to the same 9 teams as last year battling for the same 8 spots and the question this year is if we can catch one of the Islanders, Devils, or Lightning.

 

[pistolpete11]

The Isles have a -6 goal differential, Lightning -5, and Devils -1. Pens are +14.

None of the teams that made the playoffs last year had a negative differential.
*None of the teams that missed the playoffs last year had a positive goal differential.

I know in a world where xG stats are all the rage, actual goal differential is a crude way to look at things, but maybe teams that score more than they give up are better teams



*Edit: Correction. I was only looking at the East. The Flames missed the playoffs at +8....by 2 points....to a team with a +22 (Jets),

 

[AuroraBorealis]

How is goaltending the weakest link when both goalies are top 20 in the league?

The tandem was #2 in the league prior to the Wash game. Not sure about now though.

 

[Andy99]

OK. Now you've gone too far

I think Eller and DOC have been playing great independent of each other. In the game before Rust came back, Eller scored assisted by Harkins and Puusy (and picked up an EN) while DOC was on L2. The game before that O'Connor scored assisted by Malkin and Smith. I don't think they need each other to play well.

Besides, a) getting more out of Malkin and Rust is far more important and b) it's not like Eller would be getting stuck with some bum. Smith has historically been a very solid player and was a very good player as recently as earlier this year.

I disagree it's time to go bold. Despite some duds, this team is winning games right now. It's time for tweaks to see if you can get certain guys going (in particular Malkin, Smith, and Rust).

Yeah, I’m not a big fan of putting three guys who are really inconsistent in all phases of the game together and calling it your second line lol…but that’s very Mike Sullivan

 

[Fordy]

for as much as I think we all are right that DOC would be the best compliment to L2 along with a solid striker on the RW, I don't want to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, that being, DOC and Eller are playing great together, don't mess with that, find something else...I'd rather have Harkins on L2 as a LW and have him forecheck and have Geno and Rust play some hockeym than Smith doing absolutely nothing...=In any case, play Vinnie, Harkins, or whoever can forecheck and slowdown defense, get to the defensman before he can stretch pass or skate out of the d zone on that L2 with G and Rust, drop Smith to L4 with Acciari and Carter...I know won't happen but whats to lose...Its time to Go Bold

we just saw doc and geno make a full line of themselves with the ghost smith on their wibg so that won’t be an issue, and as long as he’s playing like this doc needs more minutes above all else

 

[Andy99]

The Isles have a -6 goal differential, Lightning -5, and Devils -1. Pens are +14.

None of the teams that made the playoffs last year had a negative differential.
*None of the teams that missed the playoffs last year had a positive goal differential.

I know in a world where xG stats are all the rage, actual goal differential is a crude way to look at things, but maybe teams that score more than they give up are better teams



*Edit: Correction. I was only looking at the East. The Flames missed the playoffs at +8....by 2 points....to a team with a +22 (Jets),

The problem with point differential is that there are cases where teams lose by only 1-2 goals but have a few wins by 5+ goals…and that skews anything meaningful to take from point differential…the Pens have had three outlier games: one they won against the Isles 7-0 and one they lost against the Leafs 7-0, so those cancel themselves out…and then you have the 10-2 win against the Sharks… if you take out those +8 goals then the Pens really have a +6 goal differential, which is better than the teams you mentioned but it’s not as meaningful of anything than a+14 would be

 

[pistolpete11]

The problem with point differential is that there are cases where teams lose by only 1-2 goals but have a few wins by 5+ goals…and that skews anything meaningful to take from point differential…the Pens have had three outlier games: one they won against the Isles 7-0 and one they lost against the Leafs 7-0, so those cancel themselves out…and then you have the 10-2 win against the Sharks… if you take out those +8 goals then the Pens really have a +6 goal differential, which is better than the teams you mentioned but it’s not as meaningful of anything than a+14 would be

The problem with this is that you're taking out the Pens best win without doing the same to the others.

Every team has big wins and big losses throughout a season. It evens out over time.

 

[Ulf5]

DOC is a dawg

Yes. But there's a slim chance he's figured things out. With points in 7 of his last 17 games and points in 6 of his last 11 games, a lil production to go with his forecheck might make him a servicable, cheap contract for the top 6. He's not totally a lost cause. Yet.

 

[Andy99]

The problem with this is that you're taking out the Pens best win without doing the same to the others.

Every team has big wins and big losses throughout a season. It evens out over time.

Not always…how many +5 goal wins do the Isles have? None….and they only have one loss by more than +5 goals, the one against the Pens…most of their games are within a couple goals…so it’s no wonder their goal differential is in the negative…

 

[pistolpete11]

Not always…how many +5 goal wins do the Isles have? None….and they only have one loss by more than +5 goals, the one against the Pens…most of their games are within a couple goals…so it’s no wonder their goal differential is in the negative…

And that's probably why they have less wins than the Pens and are living off OTL.

 

[molon labe]

The Isles have a -6 goal differential, Lightning -5, and Devils -1. Pens are +14.

None of the teams that made the playoffs last year had a negative differential.
*None of the teams that missed the playoffs last year had a positive goal differential.

I know in a world where xG stats are all the rage, actual goal differential is a crude way to look at things, but maybe teams that score more than they give up are better teams



*Edit: Correction. I was only looking at the East. The Flames missed the playoffs at +8....by 2 points....to a team with a +22 (Jets),

I've thought of this too - but I see it skewed simply based on these two things:

- Offense is up for the past few seasons, while goaltending is in a super-funk league wide.
- While offense is up, not every coach has a system like Sully where it's all or nothing. Many teams play for 3-1 or 3-2 victories wherein the Pens for the past few years seem like it's either a 5-2 win or a loss.

So we may win big, but lose often - therefore it takes like 7 losses to account for the plusses we get in the 2 wins both line 1 and 2 light em up.

 

[IcedCapp]

The problem with point differential is that there are cases where teams lose by only 1-2 goals but have a few wins by 5+ goals…and that skews anything meaningful to take from point differential…the Pens have had three outlier games: one they won against the Isles 7-0 and one they lost against the Leafs 7-0, so those cancel themselves out…and then you have the 10-2 win against the Sharks… if you take out those +8 goals then the Pens really have a +6 goal differential, which is better than the teams you mentioned but it’s not as meaningful of anything than a+14 would be

If I take out all the good all that’s left is bad

 

[TNT87]

Heck of a game. The offense picked up the shaky goaltending. Sid was amazing. Such an important win. Relieved they didn't blow the 3 goal lead and lose.

 

[Peat]

I really don't get the downplaying of this streak they are on. I mean, sure, there are still flaws and I think there are legitimate reasons to be skeptical still, but as far as the standings go, they are picking up points on everyone in front of them. It hasn't resulted in being in a playoff spot, yet, but they are getting closer and closer.



Last 10 games:

Islanders : 4-3-3
Flyers : 4-3-3
Lightning : 6-4-0
Devils : 6-3-1
Capitals : 4-4-2
Red Wings : 4-6-0

Pens : 7-2-1



Did people really think a good streak was going to see them instantly jump over 6 teams?

This.

I get the negativity because they're still in trouble.

And I get the negativity because there's flaws on the team.

But the results are currently inarguable. Hell, you can go back to the start of November and find the Pens are 16-8-4, 7th best in the league in that time. They had an appallingly slow start that's put them in real danger but ever since, they've responded like a playoff team.

It sucks that the division is super tight and that has only got them back in the conversation and they're going to have to keep doing it to make it... but then, maybe that's a good thing. Maybe Pens teams of years gone by have believed their own press about the depth too much. Maybe a bit more regular season angst might be the sharpener we need.

In any case... yeah. I don't want to sign up for believing in the team as I've been hurt before, but this streak is legit. The process might be whacky but the results are everything we asked for.

edit:

Oh and also

The Isles have a -6 goal differential, Lightning -5, and Devils -1. Pens are +14.

None of the teams that made the playoffs last year had a negative differential.
*None of the teams that missed the playoffs last year had a positive goal differential.

I know in a world where xG stats are all the rage, actual goal differential is a crude way to look at things, but maybe teams that score more than they give up are better teams

*Edit: Correction. I was only looking at the East. The Flames missed the playoffs at +8....by 2 points....to a team with a +22 (Jets),

The xGF% is in their favour as well anyway. 7th in the league.

Also re Andy's point about the biggest outlier games...

+6 vs their negative records is still a notable looking edge.