Salary Cap: Pens trade talk Episode XXIV: Sleepy where are you?!?

[Zirakzigil]

Flames made a big trade today. Meanwhile, Sleepy is at his desk like:

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[Zirakzigil]

Yeah me either. Hopefully Desmith starts coming around. Allows us to invest more up front.

I feel like Zacha would be a good piece for us to add if we can. Him and Malkin seem like they’d work well.

Don’t you think that’s too much of a gamble though to not upgrade goaltending? You can’t piss away two consecutive years like this. You need some type of insurance. I hope two games against Ottawa and Detroit haven’t convinced people DeSmith is fine.

Don’t justify not making a move because that’s what you think Sleepy will do.

I don’t really see an improvement on Desmith available for cheap.

Zucker-Sid-Rust
Guentzel-Geno-Carter
McGinn-Blueger-Kap
Heinen-Erod-?

Thinking of the playoffs and how to balance our roster...I know GCR is life. But we won't win if they're the only cohesive line.

I go back to Sid/Zucker showing some chemistry. Think that line could work especially if Rust continues balling.
Geno would get two great shooters and Carter to help on draws.
The 3rd line could be a real b**** to play against. Mostly cause Blue/McGinn are real solid together.
Heinen/Erod could be a really nice start to a 4th line. Maybe we can get a heavy RW at the deadline to bolster that line.

We know Zucker-Geno-Kap isn't the answer. So why not get creative.

Extras: Boyle/Zohorna/DOC
Trade: ZAR
Waive: Simon

If nothing else I'd like:
-A heavy bottom 6 wing
-A heavy bottom pairing Dman

The next time a trade is made -- and actually works out -- based solely on "Player X will light it up playing next to Malkin!!!" will be the first one since February 21, 2011.

So I guess we're due.

Neal was traded to play with Crosby.

Only goalie move I could see them making is MAF due to the history/friendship he has with the core. Otherwise I agree, they will roll with what they got. CDS has really picked up his play of late, which I think made goaltending a nonissue in managements mind.

Everyone is mad at you guys for bumping this one and not posting in the new one.

I made that thread purely to discuss LD moving forward and poll it. It was not intended to become the main cap thread

They would be foolish to convince themselves based off two recent games against two non-playoff teams that DeSmith is fine, considering he’s played poorly for about 10 months.

It sucks that Halak might not want to be traded, but this should have been addressed this past off season. I don’t think management is that naive to believe DeSmith is good enough. If management fails to upgrade DeSmith, and our goaltending falters again, that would look awful for them.

They even commented on it with how the team was playing earlier this season giving him a pass.

I can see where adding a depth D-man comes into play, and that might be priority #1 for them. They don't have many sure fire guys they can trust if one of the D-men go down.

Not really. If Jarry implodes again come playoffs, Halak isnt going to save anything. Really there is only 1 goalie that is available and has the pedigree to carry a team in the playoffs, MAF. Halak is just another middling backup. Pens are riding or dying with Jarry.

Yeah.... And there are lots avaiable to add. Scoring is a different question. Depth defense are always needed for long runs. Just annoying they wont try out POJ/Spearman/Riiko first to see what they got.

That's the thing, those are all LD.

Don’t knock Sully’s lineup decisions around these parts.

When has that mattered to our coaches, ever?

Besides Petry, what RD are available? Petry is a pipedream and the last thing we need is to spend more cap space on a defenseman.

I'd try to shake Risto loose from the Flyers. But yeah, RD is a hard find. We are also targeting guys at the top of the list when the target could be further down considering it's the RD #6 spot.

I hate the Luke Schenn kind of target, but he'd be cheap.

 

[Zirakzigil]

I'd try to shake Risto loose from the Flyers. But yeah, RD is a hard find. We are also targeting guys at the top of the list when the target could be further down considering it's the RD #6 spot.

I hate the Luke Schenn kind of target, but he'd be cheap.

I really dont want to go after Risto. I think hes overrated, will be overpriced and doesnt add what we need. We dont need any more adventures in our defensive play. Klingberg is the same ilk. I dont see the Flyers giving up him to us for a reasonable cost either.

Schenn I could get behind for depth. Solid all round player. Wont wow you, physical, wouldnt cost much to acquire.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

@ronduguayshair I just want to quickly say that Joe Thornton was the 14th best scorer for forwards which puts him behind the 10th 11th and 12th forward.

Just saying other teams 4th liners have people who score.

I get impressed by are 4th line time to time however they leave stuff to be desired.

 

[Andy99]

Before making any trades, L1 needs to be broken up, as I’ve said before…here’s a poster on another site who broke down some numbers and looked at some other teams, and agrees:

“Without breaking up Guentzel and Rust, things are bound to be difficult. Naturalstattrick.com crashed on me, so I cannot see if this is high or not, but Crosby, Malkin, Carter, Rust, and Guentzel are making up around 53% of the even strength goals since the start of 2022, and Dumo, Letang, and Matheson contributed 17% of total even strength goals in 2022. The entire rest of the team (Rodrigues, Zucker, Kapanen, Heinen, McGinn, Zohorna, Boyle, Bjorkqvist, ZAR (0), Simon, Blueger, Marino(0), Pettersson(0),Ruhwedel(0), DOC(0),Angello(0) has scored 30% of the remaining goals. Out of that "entire rest of the team," Heinen, Kapanen, and Rodrigues have scored 7 goals.

OK stats site back up. In 2022, Florida is in 1st place (Penguins 3rd) with 58 even strength goals, but in 3 less games than the Penguins. Barkov, Huberdeau, Bennett, Lundell, and Reinhart would be considered equivalent of 87,71,77,59,17 (in terms of top 3 center, and top 2 wingers). Those 5 for Florida have 25 of their 58 even strength goals, 43%. They've gotten 6 goals from defensemen during that time, 10%. Mason Marchment, Anthony Duclair, and Carter Verhaghe have added 19 goals, 33%. The rest of the players...Tippett, Hornqvist, Lomberg, Vatrano and Mamim have added another 8 goals 14%

The difference in "secondary scoring" between Pittsburgh and Florida is quite staggering. The 2nd level for Florida, has almost tripled the output of the Penguins "secondary scoring" wingers. Carolina is 4th in even strength goal scoring in 2022 (FLA 1st, COL 2nd, PIT 3rd, CAR 4th). PIT and COL both have 19 games played, FLA and CAR both only 16. So CAR is 3 behind PIT with 3 less games played. Their breakdown:

Aho, Trocheck, Staal, Svechnikov would be their top 4. Debatable if Teravainen or Niederreiter is #5. Teravainen currently on top unit, but Nino has more overall goals so I'll go with Nino. That 5 (top 3 centers and top 2 wingers) has scored 21 of 50 even strength goals, 42%. Their next big 3, Teravainen, Necas, and Jarvis have 5 goals (3 for Jarvis, and both Necas and Teuvo have missed some games). But, Stepan has 4, Lorentz has 3. Those 2 players have almost equaled our next 3, and both of those guys are 4th liners for the Canes. Brady Skjei also has 5 ES goals in 2022, which helps distribute the load.

The Penguins need to balance out their lines, and somebody out of ERod, Heinen, Kapanen or eventually Zucker is going to need to pickup some consistency the rest of the way, or this team will be in trouble.”

 

[Gurglesons]

Before making any trades, L1 needs to be broken up, as I’ve said before…here’s a poster on another site who broke down some numbers and looked at some other teams, and agrees:

“Without breaking up Guentzel and Rust, things are bound to be difficult. Naturalstattrick.com crashed on me, so I cannot see if this is high or not, but Crosby, Malkin, Carter, Rust, and Guentzel are making up around 53% of the even strength goals since the start of 2022, and Dumo, Letang, and Matheson contributed 17% of total even strength goals in 2022. The entire rest of the team (Rodrigues, Zucker, Kapanen, Heinen, McGinn, Zohorna, Boyle, Bjorkqvist, ZAR (0), Simon, Blueger, Marino(0), Pettersson(0),Ruhwedel(0), DOC(0),Angello(0) has scored 30% of the remaining goals. Out of that "entire rest of the team," Heinen, Kapanen, and Rodrigues have scored 7 goals.

OK stats site back up. In 2022, Florida is in 1st place (Penguins 3rd) with 58 even strength goals, but in 3 less games than the Penguins. Barkov, Huberdeau, Bennett, Lundell, and Reinhart would be considered equivalent of 87,71,77,59,17 (in terms of top 3 center, and top 2 wingers). Those 5 for Florida have 25 of their 58 even strength goals, 43%. They've gotten 6 goals from defensemen during that time, 10%. Mason Marchment, Anthony Duclair, and Carter Verhaghe have added 19 goals, 33%. The rest of the players...Tippett, Hornqvist, Lomberg, Vatrano and Mamim have added another 8 goals 14%

The difference in "secondary scoring" between Pittsburgh and Florida is quite staggering. The 2nd level for Florida, has almost tripled the output of the Penguins "secondary scoring" wingers. Carolina is 4th in even strength goal scoring in 2022 (FLA 1st, COL 2nd, PIT 3rd, CAR 4th). PIT and COL both have 19 games played, FLA and CAR both only 16. So CAR is 3 behind PIT with 3 less games played. Their breakdown:

Aho, Trocheck, Staal, Svechnikov would be their top 4. Debatable if Teravainen or Niederreiter is #5. Teravainen currently on top unit, but Nino has more overall goals so I'll go with Nino. That 5 (top 3 centers and top 2 wingers) has scored 21 of 50 even strength goals, 42%. Their next big 3, Teravainen, Necas, and Jarvis have 5 goals (3 for Jarvis, and both Necas and Teuvo have missed some games). But, Stepan has 4, Lorentz has 3. Those 2 players have almost equaled our next 3, and both of those guys are 4th liners for the Canes. Brady Skjei also has 5 ES goals in 2022, which helps distribute the load.

The Penguins need to balance out their lines, and somebody out of ERod, Heinen, Kapanen or eventually Zucker is going to need to pickup some consistency the rest of the way, or this team will be in trouble.”

Why are we only using January 2022 until now numbers? We've played 19 games.

The entire rest of the team (Rodrigues, Zucker, Kapanen, Heinen, McGinn, Zohorna, Boyle, Bjorkqvist, ZAR (0), Simon, Blueger, Marino(0), Pettersson(0),Ruhwedel(0), DOC(0),Angello(0)

The combined in bold have played less games than we've played entirely in the time span.

Florida's roster is unbelievable this year offensively. If you want to look at what is causing us to look less great in comparison to the "contenders" at 5v5. It isn't our depth. It is our top two centers.

 

[Gurglesons]

Player	GP	5v5 Points	Per Game
Jonathan Huberdeau	47	34	0.723404255319149
Carter Verhaeghe	46	31	0.673913043478261
Sam Reinhart	44	27	0.613636363636364
Anthony Duclair	39	24	0.615384615384615
Anton Lundell	43	23	0.534883720930233
Mason Marchment	22	20	0.909090909090909
Aleksander Barkov	34	19	0.558823529411765
Sam Bennett	37	19	0.513513513513513
Eetu Luostarinen	43	13	0.302325581395349
Frank Vatrano	40	12	0.3
Patric Hornqvist	37	12	0.324324324324324
Owen Tippett	41	12	0.292682926829268
Ryan Lomberg	35	10	0.285714285714286
Maxim Mamin	23	7	0.304347826086957
Joe Thornton	24	3	0.125
Zac Dalpe	1	0	0
Aleksi Heponiemi	4	0	0
Grigori Denisenko	1	0	0
Cole Schwindt	1	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	GP	5v5 Points	Per Game
Andrei Svechnikov	43	26	0.604651162790698
Sebastian Aho	43	24	0.558139534883721
Martin Necas	42	19	0.452380952380952
Nino Niederreiter	40	19	0.475
Vincent Trocheck	46	19	0.41304347826087
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	43	17	0.395348837209302
Jesper Fast	46	15	0.326086956521739
Seth Jarvis	37	15	0.405405405405405
Derek Stepan	38	14	0.368421052631579
Jordan Staal	44	12	0.272727272727273
Teuvo Teravainen	41	11	0.268292682926829
Steven Lorentz	41	10	0.24390243902439
Jordan Martinook	30	8	0.266666666666667
Josh Leivo	7	3	0.428571428571429
Jack Drury	2	2	1
Stefan Noesen	2	0	0
Andrew Poturalski	2	0	0
C.J. Smith	1	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	GP	5v5 Points	Per Game
Nazem Kadri	43	34	0.790697674418605
Mikko Rantanen	43	28	0.651162790697674
Andre Burakovsky	44	28	0.636363636363636
Gabriel Landeskog	38	24	0.631578947368421
Nathan MacKinnon	32	22	0.6875
Valeri Nichushkin	30	17	0.566666666666667
Nicolas Aube-Kubel	34	14	0.411764705882353
Alex Newhook	36	12	0.333333333333333
Logan O'Connor	46	12	0.260869565217391
Tyson Jost	46	10	0.217391304347826
J.T. Compher	34	6	0.176470588235294
Darren Helm	34	4	0.117647058823529
Jayson Megna	20	3	0.15
Kiefer Sherwood	11	2	0.181818181818182
Dylan Sikura	5	1	0.2
Mikhail Maltsev	18	0	0
Martin Kaut	6	0	0
Sampo Ranta	10	0	0
Stefan Matteau	1	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	GP	5v5 Points	Per Game
Jake Guentzel	43	28	0.651162790697674
Evan Rodrigues	49	22	0.448979591836735
Danton Heinen	43	18	0.418604651162791
Sidney Crosby	37	18	0.486486486486487
Kasperi Kapanen	48	16	0.333333333333333
Brock McGinn	46	15	0.326086956521739
Jeff Carter	43	15	0.348837209302326
Bryan Rust	27	15	0.555555555555556
Teddy Blueger	40	14	0.35
Jason Zucker	31	10	0.32258064516129
Zach Aston-Reese	41	10	0.24390243902439
Brian Boyle	36	7	0.194444444444444
Dominik Simon	43	7	0.162790697674419
Drew O'Connor	22	5	0.227272727272727
Evgeni Malkin	13	5	0.384615384615385
Radim Zohorna	8	2	0.25
Sam Lafferty	10	2	0.2
Kasper Bjorkqvist	6	1	0.166666666666667
Anthony Angello	1	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Gurglesons]

As you can see above the big issue isn't our depth scoring.

Players like ZAR, Blueger, Carter, Rodrigues, Heinen and McGinn are scoring at similar rates to their comparable on Colorado, Florida and Carolina. (In the case of Carolina and Colorado they are actually outproducing them)

The big issue is Sid and Geno being pretty damn pedestrian at 5v5.

For reference..

Marchment .90 PPG - Lundell .53 PPG- Reinhart .61 PPG
Lomberg .29 PPG - Luostarien .30 PPG - Hornqvist .32 PPG

Neiderreiter .48 PPG - Staal .27 PPG - Fast .33 PPG
Martinook .26 PPG - Kotkaniemi .40 PPG- Stepan .37 PPG

Compher .18 PPG- Newhook .33 PPG - LOC .26 PPG
Helm .12 PPG - Jost .22 PPG - NAK .41 PPG

Heinen .42 PPG - Carter .35 PPG- Rodrigues .45 PPG
ZAR .24 PPG - Blueger .35 PPG - McGinn .33 PPG

The numbers for Heinen and Rodrigues are somewhat deceiving, but so are the numbers for NAK, Kotkaaniemi, and Nino.

Florida is a powerhouse like I've said before the season although I know Reinhart has played in the top six. Lundell is just unbelievable and someone I wanted us to draft.

 

[ColePens]

Trade Matheson for Hornqvist and this team wins a Cup with ease.

 

[Ugene Magic]

As you can see above the big issue isn't our depth scoring.

Players like ZAR, Blueger, Carter, Rodrigues, Heinen and McGinn are scoring at similar rates to their comparable on Colorado, Florida and Carolina. (In the case of Carolina and Colorado they are actually outproducing them)

The big issue is Sid and Geno being pretty damn pedestrian at 5v5.

Also, the reason why the Pens were 5 on 5 machines while both were out leading up to Geno's return, letting said players have upper/bigger roles and cashing in on them.

So, that's not the same because, those teams were not missing their top players. The Pens depth scoring dried up upon their return. Then the PP kicked in for the stars.

I know that was a lot of work, Gurgs. I give you an A+++ for effort.

 

[Gurglesons]

Also, the reason why the Pens were 5 on 5 machines while both were out leading up to Geno's return, letting said players have upper/bigger roles and cashing in on them.

So, that's not the same because, those teams were not missing their top players. The Pens depth scoring dried up upon their return. Then the PP kicked in for the stars.

I know that was a lot of work, Gurgs. I give you an A+++ for effort.

MacKinnon has played less games than Crosby.
Barkov has played less games than Crosby.
Carolina has largely been healthy.

Not sure, I buy that excuse.

The difference between "the contenders" in the league and us is that Crosby and Malkin are not 5v5 monsters like the other elite talent on Florida and Colorado. Carolina's talent is comparable to ours.

Florida and Colorado have the best top sixes in hockey and they are largely driven by two players in Huberdeau / Barkov and Kadri / MacKinnon.

The issue with our top six right now is Sullivan assumes our line 1 is driven by Crosby where as to me when I watch the games Guentzel and Rust are the ones doing the scoring. It's why it is so infuriating that a coach that preaches depth won't split them up.

And the depth scoring hasn't really "dried up" so much as in it has been had two of its main catalysts injured in Zucker and Blueger. Losing Zucker forces us to remove a player from the bottom six.

 

[Gurglesons]

For reference this group since January.

Heinen .46 PPG - Carter .44 PPG- Rodrigues .32 PPG
ZAR .18 PPG - Blueger .5PPG - McGinn .25 PPG

If you want to go with what we've seen somewhat since January, which seems weird considering Teddy played 10 games.

Big Z .25 PPG - Carter .44 PPG - Rodrigues .32 PPG
ZAR .18 PPG - Boyle .24 PPG - Simon .16 PPG

But that seems kind of stupid given the fact that isn't our realistic bottom six heading into the playoffs unless things are really bad.

 

[Gurglesons]

Overall, I think it is stupid to compare this team to Florida, Colorado or Tampa. This team is never going to be a favorite against those three teams. I take us against every other playoff team though. Maybe not Calgary.

 

[66-30-33]

I don't care about other teams, I just want this team to finally make it out of the 1st round.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't care about other teams, I just want this team to finally make it out of the 1st round.

Probably going to be tough especially considering NYR and Carolina probably add.

 

[66-30-33]

Probably going to be tough especially considering NYR and Carolina probably add.

No excuse to lose in round 1 every single year.

 

[Gurglesons]

No excuse to lose in round 1 every single year.

I mean I can think of a couple that are 30+.

 

[Peat]

I mean it's fair to say that if our 5v5 scoring lags this year it's because of Sid and Geno having rough seasons, but Sid's been going like a train after those initial nine games or so when his skating wasn't up to snuff, and I think Geno is well capable of getting into a similar groove. Projecting forwards, that doesn't look like it will be the problem, the problem looks like an imploded middle six. And I think we might see it get better as the team's intensity level picks up - they lost it when Geno came back, but seem to be building again after the All Star game - but if it doesn't, the coaching and front office will need to do something.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

5v5 P/P60 2021-22:
Guentzel: 2.67
Crosby: 2.01
Rust: 2.37

5v5 P/P60 2020-21:
Guentzel: 1.92
Crosby: 1.83
Rust: 1.51

It's working. After all the bitching about them last year, it's working now. Scoring like a decent L1.
I don't want them broken up. They are also securing points for us lately with ENG's to seal games, which doesn't show in 5v5 scoring. My philosophy has always been if a line is producing then don't touch it.

You make adjustments with the other 9 Forwards. There should be enough depth there to squeeze out more. If too many have regressed and they can no longer do it at a good level, then you get serious and acquire someone to help. Like JT Miller for example. Sacrifice what you need to to get a winger that can be a difference maker with Malkin. Kapanen has fallen pretty hard this year and he doesn't look to be that guy. Zucker isn't going to be either. Heinen and McGinn are showing a disturbing lack of chemistry with Malkin as well.

This is like the deepest playoff pool ever in the East so if you're Hextall and you're not taking a big swing...what are you doing?
f*** keeping that 25th overall pick or w/e. He would probably just be another disappointment.
You can land a beast winger instead for this year and next.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Trade Matheson for Hornqvist and this team wins a Cup with ease.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Overall, I think it is stupid to compare this team to Florida, Colorado or Tampa. This team is never going to be a favorite against those three teams. I take us against every other playoff team though. Maybe not Calgary.

Minnesota also frightens me, but otherwise I agree with this.

 

[Pens x]

Probably going to be tough especially considering NYR and Carolina probably add.

Then maybe we should add too? Oh yea, I forgot we are now supporting the whole let the chips fall narrative, trying to defend Hextall in case he doesn’t do anything.

Halak is off the market = DeSmith is suddenly fine after two games against non-playoff teams.

What’s the point of keeping Sid, Geno, and Tang if we aren’t even going to try to pretend to compete? This whole notion of refusing to trade picks or prospects is crazy when you fail to address the team’s needs in the off season.

If we aren’t going to break up line one, sleepy has to get a winger for Geno, sorry.

I’m preparing myself for the “I’m so glad Hextall didn’t make a major move at those prices” argument.

The guy is immune from criticism around here. We are fully entrenched in the In Shero We Trust days here circa 2012.

 

[Flying Dego]

MacKinnon has played less games than Crosby.
Barkov has played less games than Crosby.
Carolina has largely been healthy.

Not sure, I buy that excuse.

The difference between "the contenders" in the league and us is that Crosby and Malkin are not 5v5 monsters like the other elite talent on Florida and Colorado. Carolina's talent is comparable to ours.

Florida and Colorado have the best top sixes in hockey and they are largely driven by two players in Huberdeau / Barkov and Kadri / MacKinnon.

The issue with our top six right now is Sullivan assumes our line 1 is driven by Crosby where as to me when I watch the games Guentzel and Rust are the ones doing the scoring. It's why it is so infuriating that a coach that preaches depth won't split them up.

And the depth scoring hasn't really "dried up" so much as in it has been had two of its main catalysts injured in Zucker and Blueger. Losing Zucker forces us to remove a player from the bottom six.

I'm fixated on the same thing. Line 1 is stacked and clearly right now both Guentzel and Rust are drivers. If we want success we should give Geno one of them.

The issues is GCR isn't a big line and if it's the only line, teams have shut them down the past few playoffs. I like the idea of Zucker tried in Guentzels spot bc he plays a more gritty style fits playoff hockey.

Guentzel with say Geno and Carter who are bigger style players also makes sense to me.

We can't afford to just role GCR and a disjointed 2nd line. We won't win round 1.

 

[Peat]

For those considering potential trades and values, The Athletic's trade talk article says Arizona have been offering around Kessel at 50% for a 3rd with no biters. That there seems to point at a buyer's market even if Calgary went and paid normal value for Toffoli.

 

[Pens x]

I'm fixated on the same thing. Line 1 is stacked and clearly right now both Guentzel and Rust are drivers. If we want success we should give Geno one of them.

The issues is GCR isn't a big line and if it's the only line, teams have shut them down the past few playoffs. I like the idea of Zucker tried in Guentzels spot bc he plays a more gritty style fits playoff hockey.

Guentzel with say Geno and Carter who are bigger style players also makes sense to me.

We can't afford to just role GCR and a disjointed 2nd line. We won't win round 1.

How does he not see that this line has largely been ineffective for three straight playoffs? Why will it suddenly play well in these upcoming playoffs? Because no neck Trotz won’t be there?

Please come back to us pre 2017 Sully.

Again, if you are going to refuse to adjust line one, sleepy has to find Geno a winger. But that will be tricky when he seems to refuse to trade prospects or draft picks, which is pretty comical since this team doesn’t give our young guys any opportunity to play.