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GDT: Pens Playoff Push: Hold on to your butts!

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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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Will Hunting said:
It wasn´t them winning all 3 of their games. It was ONE OF THEM them getting 2-0-1 in case we go 1-1-1. Just one of them. When Detroit plays MTL twice too.

To me, that´s not something "highly unlikely".
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But it was, though. The Capitals played the Lightning and Bruins while the Wings played the Leafs. Both were the underdogs in all of those matchups.

Let's look at it based on bet lines. The Wings were given a +150 odds against Toronto, -215 against the Habs today and are currently -160 on FanDuel for the Habs tomorrow. Parlaying all 3 of those into wins results in a +495 line, which corresponds to a 17% likelihood. The Capitals are at even less than that because they were huge underdogs against Boston and Tampa.

If you could replay the last 3 games of the season an infinite amount of times, probably about 65%-70% of the simulations have the Penguins making the playoffs while going 1-1-1 in their last 3 games. But because things only happen once, that can lead to unlikely things (like both the Wings and Capitals winning out) happening.
 

Hockey4Lyfe

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I can’t physically do another playoff series against the Rangers. I still have PTSD from the last one.
 
66-30-33

66-30-33

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Hockey4Lyfe said:
I can’t physically do another playoff series against the Rangers. I still have PTSD from the last one.
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NYR are cheaters, they would just target Crosbys head again and we would have no chance. After that lose to any other team because they are overrated in the playoffs.
 
Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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After the games today, MoneyPuck has the Capitals at a 50% chance at making the playoffs, Detroit at a 35% chance at making the playoffs and the Penguins at a 15% chance at making the playoffs. The Capitals have the tiebreaker on the Wings and that's why they have a big advantage on them, despite the Capitals being notable underdogs to the Flyers tomorrow.

MoneyPuck has it at a 26.4% that both the Capitals and Red Wings lose tomorrow, and then it has the Penguins at basically 50/50 with the Islanders for Wednesday. Their odds are a bit better than 50% of 26.4% because of the ability for them to make it with an OT loss, but it's not much better than that.

The odds I can see are:

-Both Caps and Wings lose in regulation tomorrow: 65% chance at making the playoffs
-Both Caps and Wings lose but either one or both in OT: 50% chance at making the playoffs
-Either Caps or Wings win: season is over
 
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Turin

Turin

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Like just don't lose a dozen overtimes. Even just lose 9, which still stinks, and you're good.
 
Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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Although looking at these MoneyPuck odds, I'm not sure where their numbers are being calculated from. It gives the Capitals a 0% chance at making the playoffs if they lose to the Flyers, but that's just an untrue statement. They make the playoffs if all 3 teams lose their last game, which is unlikely but not impossible.

Either way, it just is a wait and see at this point. The Penguins need help regardless and there's only a bit better than a quarter chance that they get that help.
 
Luigi Lemieux

Luigi Lemieux

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Empoleon8771 said:
After the games today, MoneyPuck has the Capitals at a 50% chance at making the playoffs, Detroit at a 35% chance at making the playoffs and the Penguins at a 15% chance at making the playoffs. The Capitals have the tiebreaker on the Wings and that's why they have a big advantage on them, despite the Capitals being notable underdogs to the Flyers tomorrow.

MoneyPuck has it at a 26.4% that both the Capitals and Red Wings lose tomorrow, and then it has the Penguins at basically 50/50 with the Islanders for Wednesday. Their odds are a bit better than 50% of 26.4% because of the ability for them to make it with an OT loss, but it's not much better than that.

The odds I can see are:

-Both Caps and Habs lose in regulation tomorrow: 65% chance at making the playoffs
-Both Caps and Habs lose but either one or both in OT: 50% chance at making the playoffs
-Either Caps or Habs win: season is over
Click to expand...
You mean caps and wings right. The good news is despite their wins against Tampa and Boston, caps are still only 3-5-2 over their last ten. And Detroit has been horrific overall the second half of the season. These are not good teams.
 
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66-30-33

66-30-33

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Gurglesons said:
Penguins suck. That isn't that bizarre.
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Like I said, Bruins beat us because they wanted us to not make it and tank to Caps so we wont make it. I mean maybe also to not play TB, but if that was true they would have tanked against us too. it was a personal mission to beat us and show their middle finger to us.
 
Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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Luigi Lemieux said:
You mean caps and wings right. The good news is despite their wins against Tampa and Boston, caps are still only 3-5-2 over their last ten. And Detroit has been horrific overall the second half of the season. These are not good teams.
Click to expand...

Yeah corrected to the Wings.

Either way, the most Penguins situation to occur is both the Wings and Capitals lose tomorrow but then the Penguins lose in regulation to the Islanders on Wednesday.
 
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Will Hunting

Will Hunting

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Gurglesons said:
Penguins suck. That isn't that bizarre.
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Penguins don´t suck tho. We were all claiming 7 games ago after beating the Caps that going 5-1-1 with beating Wings and Isles absolutely gets us in. The Pens might just do that and they will still not get in.

It´s kinda crazy also looking at Islanders going 7-0-1 the rest of the way, so we don´t even have a chance to use that last game against them. Also Washington and Detroit possibly going 3-0-0 the rest of the way.

I mean, the Penguins lost one game to super motivated Boston team, that clearly wanted to eliminate us. The Pens might go 10-1-3 to finish the season and miss by one point.

They deserved at least the chance to play for something in that game 82. But Boston had different ideas clearly.

Washington sucks so much more than the Pens and they are probably gonna make it.
 
JRS91

JRS91

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Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Boston played awful so the Penguins wouldn't get in.

Let's be honest, out of the Penguins, Red Wings and Capitals, neither are very good but the Penguins are probably the most dangerous. They have the potential to really disrupt things more than the others.
 
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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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Honestly the Penguins do suck and don't deserve to make the playoffs, it's just that the league has really bad parity right now and a 90 point team can actually make the playoffs this year. You have to go back to 2018-2019 with the Avs to find another team that made the playoffs with 90 points. Before that, it was 2015-2016 with the Wild finishing with 87 points and making the playoffs.

In a normal year, the WC2 team is sitting with 95-98 points or so and the Penguins would have been eliminated for weeks.
 
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Turin

Turin

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The west is seriously overrated. Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago are all easy points every time.
 
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