GDT: Pens at Wings

[Old Gregg]

I thought Fleury looked solid. I know it was against a mostly AHL roster but he was sharp. Had that one gaff but if he gets there first people would have said it was a great play. Did anyone else notice that he stayed in his butterfly when tight against the post and didn't do the one pad up and one down thing he had been doing for years?

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Jokinen earned that second line spot.

That is B.S. Bennett has been basically cementing a top-six winger role ever since the lockout ended, and yet here we are on the eve of the new regular season and he's still fighting for his ice time. This is beyond tough-love treatment. It's borderline psychotic behavior. Perhaps we'll find out one day that the Shero-Bylsma bromance involves betting on hockey games, and they're betting on us to lose.

That at least would make some sense.

I'd like to see Sill make the team, not only to make the 4th line harder to play against, but to add someone that's strong on face offs to the PK.

Wasn't Vitale supposed to be a key face-off man/PKer by now? Is he still in his developmental stage at age 28? I realize Sill has some added toughness that we need but this organization doesn't want that. They prefer uselessness to usefulness. Go figure.

Very good post. This is very sensible. The KCD hate is absurd. The line has never failed, it has been a system smothered or mental breakdowns.

It is not that Jokinen is a better fit than Bennett, it is the fact that Jokinen will be a much more effective player on Malkins line. Bennett will have a similar effect on either line.

As for the Adams/Glass hate. #1 it is the 4th line folks. #2 Craig Adams still plays a very important role on this team. #3 Yes Glass was bad last year, but has been effective in the past. I willing to give the guy a shot, but with a very short rope.

On your first point, KCD was completely shut down in the series against Boston. I mean it wasn't even close. It was man's against boyz. Perhaps you were vacationing under a rock and missed it.

On your second point, those are just more excuses to try to justify something that is completely unjustifiable. Oh let's use Bennett on the third line because he won't suck there but Jokinen will. That's basically what you're saying. Or Jokinen won't be able to mooch off Sutter, but he sure can do that with Malkin. Either way, I actually don't hate Jokinen but Disco is forcing me to because he's completely out to lunch on Beau Bennett.

The kid has played an ideal complementary role since he arrived and would have been penciled in on Line 2 (or Line 1 if you prefer, semantics) with virtually every other coach in the NHL after what he has shown in his brief NHL career. Yet we're supposed to accept his most recent demotion because the guy who replaced him next to Malkin is putting up points? No *****, really? I would have never guessed that you can put up more points next to Geno than next to Sutter.

It's a complete joke.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I know.

 

[wgknestrick]

Very good post. This is very sensible. The KCD hate is absurd. The line has never failed, it has been a system smothered or mental breakdowns.

I agree that Borts looks much improved and yes, I would play him over Simon.

It is not that Jokinen is a better fit than Bennett, it is the fact that Jokinen will be a much more effective player on Malkins line. Bennett will have a similar effect on either line.

As for the Adams/Glass hate. #1 it is the 4th line folks. #2 Craig Adams still plays a very important role on this team. #3 Yes Glass was bad last year, but has been effective in the past. I willing to give the guy a shot, but with a very short rope.

The "it is only the 4th line" BS has to stop. What standards are these guys held to? I refuse to keep giving them a get out of jail card on the excuse they are 4th liners. They usually skate against other 3rd/4th lines AND still consistently get outscored. You cannot spend $5 at even strength to save $3 on the PK. Each and every player has to be a net positive to the team in goal differential when they are on the ice. If they are not, then they are hurting the team. You play your best net positive players = best chance for winning. By all advanced stats metrics, Adams and Glass are severely hurting the team in shot differential and subsequently goal differential. This has been the case since each of these players have been on the roster.

Playing these players chips away at the large + goal differential the Pens usually get from Malkin's and Crosby's lines. Just being a "net 0" would be an improvement and basically what most 4th lines provide.

+- is a flawed stat at the league level, but still has value when comparing players on the same team. All you need for a quick indicator is to compare Adams and Glass's +- to the rest of the team to see where the "leaks" are in the dam.

Why not fix the "leaks"?

Here are some calculations I did last year to quantify what the 4th line "cost" the Pens

Stats on the Pens 4th line (most of these stats are averages of Glass/Vitale/Adams):
I'm just putting this together to try to quantify what the 4th line does for the Pens "bottom line" in goal differential.


On ice for 1 goal for ...On ice for 9 goals against at 5v5.

If 4th line could play an entire 60min game of 5v5 hockey, Pens would probably lose games by an average of 2 goals / game. This 4th line Pens team would average only .3 goals for / game. It would also be out-shot by an average of 13 shots / game.

We all know the 4th doesn't (thankfully) play an entire game. How much do they cost the Pens / game currently? Assuming an average of 7 min / game of 5v5 ice time, the Pens are giving up about .23 goals/game in goal differential just due to their 4th line. That .2 goal diff is what separates the LAK from NYR currently in the goal diff standings and is also about 5 pts. Don't forget this happens in just 7 minutes.

About 4% of the 4th line's shot go in the net. Even TK laughs at this.

Pen's goalies only save 89% of the even strength shots against when the 4th line it out. League average 5v5 SV% is around 91.8. I thought these guys are supposed to be defensive "specialists". I accept they don't score, but maybe they could at least limit the shot quality against. In case you forgot, re-read how much they get outshot above. Now combine the 2. It's OK to punch something. I suggest a pillow.

 

[BHD]

I'd like to see Sill make the team, not only to make the 4th line harder to play against, but to add someone that's strong on face offs to the PK.

Sill and Vitale on the same line would be a pain in the ass for other teams.

 

[wgknestrick]

Sill and Vitale on the same line would be a pain in the ass for other teams.

If "pain in the ass" = outscoring the other team, then for sure.

If a line just hits players and pisses them off with "grit", but still gets outscored = no problem for opposing team. Reference 2012 PHI-PIT series

I have a hard time seeing Vitale being part of any line that is a true "pain in the ass" though. I am willing to "try" something else though. We all know how Adams-Glass-X is going to end.

 

[UnrealMachine]

The "it is only the 4th line" BS has to stop. What standards are these guys held to? I refuse to keep giving them a get out of jail card on the excuse they are 4th liners. They usually skate against other 3rd/4th lines AND still consistently get outscored. You cannot spend $5 at even strength to save $3 on the PK. Each and every player has to be a net positive to the team in goal differential when they are on the ice. If they are not, then they are hurting the team. You play your best net positive players = best chance for winning. By all advanced stats metrics, Adams and Glass are severely hurting the team in shot differential and subsequently goal differential. This has been the case since each of these players have been on the roster.

Playing these players chips away at the large + goal differential the Pens usually get from Malkin's and Crosby's lines. Just being a "net 0" would be an improvement and basically what most 4th lines provide.

+- is a flawed stat at the league level, but still has value when comparing players on the same team. All you need for a quick indicator is to compare Adams and Glass's +- to the rest of the team to see where the "leaks" are in the dam.

Why not fix the "leaks"?

Here are some calculations I did last year to quantify what the 4th line "cost" the Pens

Great post (especially the quoted part which won't carryover to this one). Hockey is still a game of inches and average margin of goals for/against is still generally less than 1. A team can't afford to handicap itself at EV for 10-20% of the game and expect to be successful deep into the playoffs. That always catches up to a team at some point.

 

[Shady Machine]

Very good post. This is very sensible. The KCD hate is absurd. The line has never failed, it has been a system smothered or mental breakdowns.

I agree that Borts looks much improved and yes, I would play him over Simon.

It is not that Jokinen is a better fit than Bennett, it is the fact that Jokinen will be a much more effective player on Malkins line. Bennett will have a similar effect on either line.

As for the Adams/Glass hate. #1 it is the 4th line folks. #2 Craig Adams still plays a very important role on this team. #3 Yes Glass was bad last year, but has been effective in the past. I willing to give the guy a shot, but with a very short rope.

I guess you didn't watch the Boston series.

Also, the 4th line IS important. They can change the momentum of a game, score a big goal here and there, and actually play hockey. Tanner Glass just isn't good at hockey. I don't see why he should get the benefit of a second chance when we have other guys that are hungrier to play and are better players. It's not like Glass' resume is good enough to justify it. And Adams, well his "very important role" can be easily replaced.

 

[Darth Vitale]

Next person to post that creeper eating Gerber Gelato off his own head is going to get a different kind of frozen treat.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Next person to post that creeper eating Gerber Gelato off his own head is going to get a different kind of frozen treat.

That's censorship you dirty Nazi.

Some people enjoy it and look fwd to me posting it.

PS - it's a woman and she's a smoke show.

PPS - I hate you because I hate Nazis.

 

[IcedCapp]

I guess you didn't watch the Boston series.

NO READ THE ENTIRE SENTENCE!

He basically says 'It has failed, but those failures weren't their faults"!!!!!!YHUJIT%HHGFHGHGMFGBhS~!!Kfdjkgdjfng


OSWORY I JUST HDAG A STROKRE

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I guess you didn't watch the Boston series.

Also, the 4th line IS important. They can change the momentum of a game, score a big goal here and there, and actually play hockey. Tanner Glass just isn't good at hockey. I don't see why he should get the benefit of a second chance when we have other guys that are hungrier to play and are better players. It's not like Glass' resume is good enough to justify it. And Adams, well his "very important role" can be easily replaced.

It's funny, both the advanced metrics AND the eyeball test confirm that our fourth line sucks the big one. Sometimes it's hard for those two separate ways of viewing the game to come together, but in this case it's a pure slam dunk. And yet...


You know what else is sad? John Scott of the Sabres has already made more of an impact for his team than our fourth line will do for all 82 regular-season games (plus playoffs).

 

[Fordy]

This whole team has actually never failed. They've just been system smothered or had mental breakdowns. In fact, they've never really lost a game, they've just not scored as much as they other team.

 

[Candyman]

NO READ THE ENTIRE SENTENCE!

He basically says 'It has failed, but those failures weren't their faults"!!!!!!YHUJIT%HHGFHGHGMFGBhS~!!Kfdjkgdjfng


OSWORY I JUST HDAG A STROKRE

I laughed, in the university Library... People are staring. Still laughing.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

But what options do we have to even get rid of Glass? If we send him to the AHL, does his cap hit come off our cap?

 

[Shady Machine]

It's funny, both the advanced metrics AND the eyeball test confirm that our fourth line sucks the big one. Sometimes it's hard for those two separate ways of viewing the game to come together, but in this case it's a pure slam dunk. And yet...


You know what else is sad? John Scott of the Sabres has already made more of an impact for his team than our fourth line will do for all 82 regular-season games (plus playoffs).

Well said. I agree. I know we don't agree on the role of enforcers, but I would take an enforcer that can play hockey a bit like over Glass anyday. At least with the enforcer, you know they won't get a ton of ice time and we will double shift Sid and Geno with the 4th line. With Glass, he gets put in important roles and given 12+ minutes a night. What a joke.

 

[MrBurghundy]

But what options do we have to even get rid of Glass? If we send him to the AHL, does his cap hit come off our cap?

Partly

 

[Shady Machine]

But what options do we have to even get rid of Glass? If we send him to the AHL, does his cap hit come off our cap?

I believe 925k will come off. That's more than sending Despres to the AHL.

 

[LetangInTheSO]

Fun game to watch last night, even if we were playing the Grand Rapids Griffins.

Crosby and Kunitz looked great all night, although I thought Dupuis was a little out of sync (despite his goal).

Malkin was his usual enigmatic self: the most naturally gifted guy on the ice, flying around but sometimes trying to do too much, taking penalties, etc.

Neal impressed the hell out of me, guy was giving it his all in a preseason game (he dove at a rebound like it was a playoff game) and was finding ways to get looks at the net often.

Jokinen also looked very good. I am 100% on board the Bennett bandwagon, but I have to at least concede that Jokinen has earned the opportunity to play on that line to start the season.

As for the bottom 6, Bennett is a treat to watch, but I have to say that it was Jeffrey who impressed me the most last night. This guy has the potential to be an above-average third liner in the NHL and our organization is suffocating him. We should either find a role for him or trade him somewhere where he gets the opportunity to play. That was my first game watching Kobasew and I was not impressed. Glass has the worst offensive instincts of any NHL forward who isn't a designated goon, IMO. I have to confess that I didn't notice too much of Sutter or Adams (despite his tip in) last night.

On D, Letang looked very good. I didn't notice Scuderi which means he was doing exactly what he should be doing. Niskanen made a few good heads up plays including the stretch pass on the Jokinen goal. Orpik was a little spastic. Didn't get a good look at Bort/Engo.

 

[mpp9]

I thought Jeffrey had a better camp than Sutter.

 

[LetangInTheSO]

I thought Jeffrey had a better camp than Sutter.

Last night's game was the only preseason activity I caught, but FWIW he was definitely the most impressive player in the bottom 6 last night.

 

[Crafton]

has Jeffrey seen any shifts on Sutter's LW?

Jeffrey-Sutter-Bennett
Adams/Kobasew-Vitale-Adams/Kobasew
D'Agostini

Adams and Kobaswe have played both sides in the past. two playmakers on his wing might get Sutter to use his underrated shot and raise his game. i think this line-up is possible with Vokoun on LITR. some will claim the team is wedded to Glass, i'm not to sure - guess we'll see what happens.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Well said. I agree. I know we don't agree on the role of enforcers, but I would take an enforcer that can play hockey a bit like over Glass anyday. At least with the enforcer, you know they won't get a ton of ice time and we will double shift Sid and Geno with the 4th line. With Glass, he gets put in important roles and given 12+ minutes a night. What a joke.

Yeah, we do disagree on the role of the enforcer SM. BUT, one of the BIGGEST benefits in my view of having a true enforcer (even a guy like Big Mac) is that he does only get 3-5 shifts per game. That's it. The rest goes to the stars. We definitely agree on that point.

Let's say for example that Glass, Vitale and Adams are all gone from this roster. And let's say we signed Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond for the fourth line. We could conceivably have a fourth line of:

Letourneau-Leblond--Jeffrey--D'Agostini

THEN, after a few shifts, it would turn into:

Jeffrey-Crosby/Malkin-D'Agostini

And then maybe:

Neal/Bennett-Jeffrey-D'Agostini

And Jeffrey could get all of Adams' PK time, and we could use a combination of Crosby, Malkin and Kunitz for the PK time left over that will go this year to Glass and Vitale.

In my view, this is SO MUCH better for this team. But I digress.

 

[LetangInTheSO]

has Jeffrey seen any shifts on Sutter's LW?

Jeffrey-Sutter-Bennett
Adams/Kobasew-Vitale-Adams/Kobasew
D'Agostini

Adams and Kobaswe have played both sides in the past. two playmakers on his wing might get Sutter to use his underrated shot and raise his game. i think this line-up is possible with Vokoun on LITR. some will claim the team is wedded to Glass, i'm not to sure - guess we'll see what happens.

Has anybody seen Kobasew play for an extended stretch (I admittedly have not). I thought he was the worst Penguin on the ice last night (including Glass). Appeared to be a step behind physically and mentally all night long. Seriously, virtually every time he was on the ice it got my attention. Maybe he's a better player than he was last night...he better be if we intend to give him a roster spot.

 

[LetangInTheSO]

Yeah, we do disagree on the role of the enforcer SM. BUT, one of the BIGGEST benefits in my view of having a true enforcer (even a guy like Big Mac) is that he does only get 3-5 shifts per game. That's it. The rest goes to the stars. We definitely agree on that point.

Let's say for example that Glass, Vitale and Adams are all gone from this roster. And let's say we signed Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond for the fourth line. We could conceivably have a fourth line of:

Letourneau-Leblond--Jeffrey--D'Agostini

THEN, after a few shifts, it would turn into:

Jeffrey-Crosby/Malkin-D'Agostini

And then maybe:

Neal/Bennett-Jeffrey-D'Agostini

And Jeffrey could get all of Adams' PK time, and we could use a combination of Crosby, Malkin and Kunitz for the PK time left over that will go this year to Glass and Vitale.

In my view, this is SO MUCH better for this team. But I digress.

Count me as a supporter of this theory (though personnel-wise, I'd prefer an enforcer with just a sliver more hockey-playing ability than I'm told Letourneau-Leblond has).