Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[Empoleon8771]

I get that perspective, but I go back to this:



There is a strong desire for NHL teams to make improvements this year despite the constraints of the cap and a weak UFA class. If Bryan Rust is available to a team, they're going to pursue him. Because while he may not be available to everyone, the teams he is available to will know that their competition is improving with other players.

Again, that's not the driving factor here. Rust's NMC is the driving factor here.

I really don't understand how people can't understand this. Rust has a full NMC that would either kill any trade or only allow trades to certain destinations. We have seen time and time again how that kind of power destroys the value for a player. And with Rust, we're talking about a guy who people in here keep saying had a bad year last year.

You'd have to jump through hoops to even come up with a trade that is possible that Rust would approve of, and then you're trying to trade away a 31 year old player signed long term at $5 million coming off a bad year. Oh yeah, he also has that NMC.

There is no situation where the Penguins can trade Rust and get good value back for him, just like there is no situation where the Penguins can trade Malkin and get good value back for him. They only leave if they're okay with leaving, and then they can hand pick any location they could want to go to. What sort of leverage do the Penguins have there to get anything of note back for them? Calling Rust untradeable is much more realistic than any other idea.

The only way the Penguins would get good value for Rust is if he wants to leave and is super willing to work with the Penguins to waive to whoever can give the Penguins the best return. But why would Rust do that? He took less money to get the NMC, why would he suddenly invalidate the NMC just to get traded? Even guys who wanted to be traded in the past with those kind of trade restrictions (such as Nash and Kesler) still hand-picked their location they were willing to go to.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Again, that's not the driving factor here. Rust's NMC is the driving factor here.

I really don't understand how people can't understand this. Rust has a full NMC that would either kill any trade or only allow trades to certain destinations. We have seen time and time again how that kind of power destroys the value for a player. And with Rust, we're talking about a guy who people in here keep saying had a bad year last year.

You'd have to jump through hoops to even come up with a trade that is possible that Rust would approve of, and then you're trying to trade away a 31 year old player signed long term at $5 million coming off a bad year. Oh yeah, he also has that NMC.

There is no situation where the Penguins can trade Rust and get good value back for him, just like there is no situation where the Penguins can trade Malkin and get good value back for him. They only leave if they're okay with leaving, and then they can hand pick any location they could want to go to. What sort of leverage do the Penguins have there to get anything of note back for them? Calling Rust untradeable is much more realistic than any other idea.

In a normal year, I think you'd be right.

I think there is immense pressure on teams to become competitive and Cup contenders. There is no prohibitive favorite for the Cup next year because of the cap and because of age. Tampa, Boston and the Penguins are older. Colorado is figuring itself out after all of its injuries. Vegas has to shed salary. Even Florida will have to do some pruning, and they barely made the dance in the first place.

There are lots of promising teams, but none have proven themselves.

The door is open. And the cap will start to rise significantly a year from now.

Rust had a bad year and still scored 20 goals. There will be a belief he will bounce back.

And where in a normal year the exclusivity of being able to acquire him would drive down the market, I think the handful of teams that may be in the mix in a hypothetical trade would still pay a valuable price because they believe they would be improving their teams and keeping pace with other contenders trying to get better.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I know people are dunking on Rust's season but he took a major discount to stay. He still has plenty value (the Athletic puts him at $6.5M) and that's after a bad year. I expect him to bounce back next season.

I have no issues with Rust as I think he still has play left in him, on a "bad year" Rust still put up 20 goals and just short of 50.

I also think because of the discount it would be great if we could bring in another top 6 that could surpass him and utilize him in a middle 6 role which would be great for out depth

 

[Empoleon8771]

In a normal year, I think you'd be right.

I think there is immense pressure on teams to become competitive and Cup contenders. There is no prohibitive favorite for the Cup next year because of the cap and because of age. Tampa, Boston and the Penguins are older. Colorado is figuring itself out after all of its injuries. Vegas has to shed salary. Even Florida will have to do some pruning, and they barely made the dance in the first place.

There are lots of promising teams, but none have proven themselves.

The door is open. And the cap will start to rise significantly a year from now.

Rust had a bad year and still scored 20 goals. There will be a belief he will bounce back.

And where in a normal year the exclusivity of being able to acquire him would drive down the market, I think the handful of teams that may be in the mix in a hypothetical trade would still pay a valuable price because they believe they would be improving their teams and keeping pace with other contenders trying to get better.

Why did you respond to my post and then entirely ignore why Rust's NMC is the driving factor here?

What other teams are willing to pay for Rust literally means nothing if Rust isn't willing to do there. Rust can kill any sort of transaction the Penguins try to do with him outside of buying him out. If he consents to a trade, it has to be somewhere he approves of. The fact that the free agent market is bad is not relevant to the conversation, you have to jump through numerous hoops to even get to that point.

To find a trade for Rust that would actually give the Penguins value back, all of these would be required:

1. Rust wants to be traded.
2. Rust will allow a trade to a team who wants him.
3. That team would rather trade for Rust over signing a UFA
4. That team would be willing to pay the price for Rust, while the Penguins don't have many (if any) other viable alternatives due to points 1 and 2.

It doesn't matter if a team is willing to trade assets for Rust if Rust won't allow a trade to that team. Pretty much every player who has ever gotten a NMC will use that NMC to their benefit. The only scenario where the Penguins can drum up a market for Rust is if he's this unicorn who somehow doesn't want to use the NMC that he got in his contract a year ago.

The status of the market influences points 3 and 4. A Bryan Rust trade doesn't even get to point 3 without points 1 and 2 being true.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I really hope you're not a manager of any people

Yeah, I lack the alcoholism to do it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It’s a moot point because it would obviously never get to this point, but I would argue that the bad UFA market would likely make Rust even less likely to play ball with the Penguins regarding a trade. I’d bet he’d be more likely to push for a buyout and then be able to pick his location as a UFA as one of the top UFAs in the market. He’d get something like 2/3 of his deal with the Penguins and then also likely get a similar contract to what he has now in UFA.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Why did you respond to my post and then entirely ignore why Rust's NMC is the driving factor here?

What other teams are willing to pay for Rust literally means nothing if Rust isn't willing to do there. Rust can kill any sort of transaction the Penguins try to do with him outside of buying him out. If he consents to a trade, it has to be somewhere he approves of. The fact that the free agent market is bad is not relevant to the conversation, you have to jump through numerous hoops to even get to that point.

To find a trade for Rust that would actually give the Penguins value back, all of these would be required:

1. Rust wants to be traded.
2. Rust will allow a trade to a team who wants him.
3. That team would rather trade for Rust over signing a UFA
4. That team would be willing to pay the price for Rust, while the Penguins don't have many (if any) other viable alternatives due to points 1 and 2.

It doesn't matter if a team is willing to trade assets for Rust if Rust won't allow a trade to that team. Pretty much every player who has ever gotten a NMC will use that NMC to their benefit. The only scenario where the Penguins can drum up a market for Rust is if he's this unicorn who somehow doesn't want to use the NMC that he got in his contract a year ago.

The status of the market influences points 3 and 4. A Bryan Rust trade doesn't even get to point 3 without points 1 and 2 being true.

Because that's not the only way things have to go down.

1. Pens ask Rust if he's willing to waive anywhere. He hypothetically says yes, but only teams A, B and C. Obviously, if he says no, it all stops here.
2. Dubas approaches Teams A, B and C. "We're exploring options. Bryan Rust is willing to waive his NMC to come to your team. What's your interest?"
3. Teams A, B and C now have to assess the market. How confident are they that they are the only suitor for Rust, or one of only three teams? Do they want to overpay in free agency? Or would they rather make a trade for a known quantity?
4. You can always pull Rust back. You're not forced to make a trade. That's another difference between a guy making a request to go to a contender or refusing to re-sign, and what the Pens would face with Rust.

In my scenario, you're specifically targeting teams with the knowledge that Rust is willing to go there. You're not blindly putting feelers out there and teams being unsure if Rust is willing. You'd be able to specifically go to a team and say, "Bryan Rust is willing to come be part of your franchise. What'll you offer?"

You can actually control the market better that way, because there is a possibility that the market for Rust will still be an unknown since he's not openly being shopped.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't think Dubas will have any interest in moving Rust. As Emp said the nmc kills his value and gives him all the power. And Mike Sullivan likes him anyways, as does Crosby.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Because that's not the only way things have to go down.

1. Pens ask Rust if he's willing to waive anywhere. He hypothetically says yes, but only teams A, B and C. Obviously, if he says no, it all stops here.
2. Dubas approaches Teams A, B and C. "We're exploring options. Bryan Rust is willing to waive his NMC to come to your team. What's your interest?"
3. Teams A, B and C now have to assess the market. How confident are they that they are the only suitor for Rust, or one of only three teams? Do they want to overpay in free agency? Or would they rather make a trade for a known quantity?
4. You can always pull Rust back. You're not forced to make a trade. That's another difference between a guy making a request to go to a contender or refusing to re-sign, and what the Pens would face with Rust.

In my scenario, you're specifically targeting teams with the knowledge that Rust is willing to go there. You're not blindly putting feelers out there and teams being unsure if Rust is willing. You'd be able to specifically go to a team and say, "Bryan Rust is willing to come be part of your franchise. What'll you offer?"

You can actually control the market better that way, because there is a possibility that the market for Rust will still be an unknown since he's not openly being shopped.

Why would Rust want to waive his NMC a year after agreeing to a new contract where he specifically took less money than he could have gotten in UFA in exchange for the NMC?

Like I said, you're glossing over points 1 (whether Rust wants to be traded) and 2 (whether Rust wants to be traded to a team that would want him) to act like he could bring back serious value in a trade, when it's most likely that points 1 and 2 kill any sort of trade. Even if you assume that he would be willing to waive, it's pretty unlikely that he'd only pick teams that would be interested in trading for him. After that point, then you consider the UFA market vs trading for Rust for the other teams.

It's the same exact situation as Malkin. The Penguins would go to him and ask him if he's willing to be traded, and he'd either say no (by far most likely) or he'd give like very few locations he'd be willing to go to. Then they'd have to discuss Malkin with the other team, where the other teams might not even be interested or be able to afford him. If you can get past that hurdle, then you'll have to negotiate with the other team, when the other team knows that they're in the drivers seat with negotiation.

With Rust, I think those negotiations would be even tougher because Rust is an exceptionally pedestrian player when it comes to players with NMCs. You might get a team who would give you good value for Malkin that Malkin would be willing to go play for, because Malkin is a special player. But Rust? There are usually like 2-4 guys on par with Rust available every year in free agency. Which, as an aside, made it questionable to be giving Rust a NMC in the first place.

 

[66-30-33]

Sharks and Karlsson looking to trade...cue back the 14th, Granlund, Petry, Pickering talk.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Why would Rust want to waive his NMC a year after agreeing to a new contract where he specifically took less money than he could have gotten in UFA in exchange for the NMC?

Like I said, you're glossing over points 1 (whether Rust wants to be traded) and 2 (whether Rust wants to be traded to a team that would want him) to act like he could bring back serious value in a trade, when it's most likely that points 1 and 2 kill any sort of trade. Even if you assume that he would be willing to waive, it's pretty unlikely that he'd only pick teams that would be interested in trading for him. After that point, then you consider the UFA market vs trading for Rust.

I've already said it's unlikely he'll be traded because of the NMC. There is a reason he had it as part of his contract.

So, I don't think Rust wants to be traded. He seems like a guy who likes stability.

However, people do change their minds, and it can happen faster than you think. Perhaps missing the playoffs and seeing the difficulty the team had last year put doubt in Rust's mind about the direction of the franchise. Maybe something personal has come up - as you noted, he did just have his second kid - and being even closer to extended family has appeal.

There are a number of hypothetical reasons why someone would change their mind after signing a contract.

 

[Peat]

Players waive NTCs.

Next you're gonna tell me that the core is going to have a hissyfit if Dumo isn't resigned. It's a business.

It's a business built around telling a bunch of people with more power than the managers what to do. The star players are less replaceable so the moment they start throwing their weight around, the manager is in trouble. Even if they win the power battle, it's usually on terms that mean they lose anyway.

Which means there's a fine line on when to put the foot down and when not to do. My gut is that publicly criticising players as an opening gambit feels like a lot of risk for not a lot of reward for Dubas. He can let Dumo walk no worries, but publicly criticising guys is another story.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I've already said it's unlikely he'll be traded because of the NMC. There is a reason he had it as part of his contract.

So, I don't think Rust wants to be traded. He seems like a guy who likes stability.

However, people do change their minds, and it can happen faster than you think. Perhaps missing the playoffs and seeing the difficulty the team had last year put doubt in Rust's mind about the direction of the franchise. Maybe something personal has come up - as you noted, he did just have his second kid - and being even closer to extended family has appeal.

There are a number of hypothetical reasons why someone would change their mind after signing a contract.

Okay, here's the last thing I'm going to say on all of this. Your scenario regarding Rust is possible, all it would require is him being willing to waive his NMC to go to specific teams that would want him and be willing to trade value for him. But I would easily argue it is such an unlikely scenario that it's not even worth discussing.

It is more likely to find another GM that would value Granlund like Hextall did than for all of the marbles to fall exactly right into a scenario where the Penguins trade Rust for good value. I don't even think that is hyperbolic either, you'd have an easier time getting a 2nd back for Granlund than to trade Rust in that kind of scenario.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't think Dubas will have any interest in moving Rust. As Emp said the nmc kills his value and gives him all the power. And Mike Sullivan likes him anyways, as does Crosby.

Let’s be honest. This is the real reason Rust isn’t moved.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Keeping both Zucker and Rust is untenable next year because it cements a top 6 that needs a change for the remainder of Crosby's career. Guentzel (goal scoring) and Rakell (finesse) bring different valuable offensive elements.

One of em's gotta go. Don't see them selling low on Rust and that leaves Zucker as the odd man out.

 

[farscape1]

The first buyout window officially begins tomorrow Friday June 16th and ends on June 30th. So any noise about Granlund being bought out or will he just replace Zucker next to Geno this coming season?

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Keeping both Zucker and Rust is untenable next year because it cements a top 6 that needs a change for the remainder of Crosby's career. Guentzel (goal scoring) and Rakell (finesse) bring different valuable offensive elements.

One of em's gotta go. Don't see them selling low on Rust and that leaves Zucker as the odd man out.

Dubas said he thought the top 6 was very, very good.
I'm leaning towards Zucker returning, considering his willingness to make it happen. He strongly reiterated that desire in a recent interview with NHL network.
But if it's not him then Bunting looks like the most realistic option B.

I think Justin Holl being available this summer means he might be a Penguin too....

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's a business built around telling a bunch of people with more power than the managers what to do. The star players are less replaceable so the moment they start throwing their weight around, the manager is in trouble. Even if they win the power battle, it's usually on terms that mean they lose anyway.

Which means there's a fine line on when to put the foot down and when not to do. My gut is that publicly criticising players as an opening gambit feels like a lot of risk for not a lot of reward for Dubas. He can let Dumo walk no worries, but publicly criticising guys is another story.

Are 87/71 happy with how Rust played last year?

I dunno. Trying to shake things up to win seems incompatible with 13 guys feeling completely secure in their spots next year. 1 LD, 1 Center, 1 bottom 6 winger and 1 goalie + last year's cast doesn't seem like an honest effort.

That said, I'm okay gambling on Rust to bounce back. The lack of accountability and the comfort, the country club atmosphere - that's what I dislike.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Keeping both Zucker and Rust is untenable next year because it cements a top 6 that needs a change for the remainder of Crosby's career. Guentzel (goal scoring) and Rakell (finesse) bring different valuable offensive elements.

One of em's gotta go. Don't see them selling low on Rust and that leaves Zucker as the odd man out.

Its not the top 6 you worry about its the bottom group that needs upgrades

 

[Jacob]

I’ll bet anyone that Granlund is on the opening night lineup.

 

[Peat]

Are 87/71 happy with how Rust played last year?

I dunno. Trying to shake things up to win seems incompatible with 13 guys feeling completely secure in their spots next year. 1 LD, 1 Center, 1 bottom 6 winger and 1 goalie + last year's cast doesn't seem like an honest effort.

That said, I'm okay gambling on Rust to bounce back. The lack of accountability and the comfort, the country club atmosphere - that's what I dislike.

Nobody here knows how Sid and Geno feel about Rust. But, even if they wish he'd been better, that still leaves a lot of ground between "hey, we need him to be better" and "I'm okay with him being dragged in public". That sort of thing is why Tortorella is considered a dinosaur.

Similarly, there's a lot of ground between "it doesn't make sense to go after an eight year veteran with a full NMC" and "touch nobody who's in place". Nobody is going to bat an eyelid if they move Petry or Rutta. Ditto letting Dumo walk. Long term minor Penguins like DeSmith or Ruhwedel can be vanished without much more than a "that's business".

Dubas could move Guentzel if he really wanted and was really sure the move would work out right. It's not like the core are going to rebel at the drop of a hat and if Dubas makes risky moves, they'll want him to be right. Hell, they've been through moving MAF, they can go through anything as long as the GM doesn't lose their trust in doing so. If Rust didn't have a full NMC, it'd be a very different tale.

But Rust does so it's this story. He controls his destiny, there's no reason to think the established guys in the org intensely dislike him, it's not a good battle to pick in terms of getting buy in.



Also while I've said I don't think Rust is all that, and while I do think this org could use some shake up, he's far from a problem and there are plenty of positions in which Dubas can upgrade the roster and create a more competitive environment. That should be his focus. He can shout at the core when they start letting down the depth rather than the other way around.

 

[farscape1]

I’ll bet anyone that Granlund is on the opening night lineup.

Geno's winger

 

[ChaosAgent]

Nobody here knows how Sid and Geno feel about Rust. But, even if they wish he'd been better, that still leaves a lot of ground between "hey, we need him to be better" and "I'm okay with him being dragged in public". That sort of thing is why Tortorella is considered a dinosaur.

Similarly, there's a lot of ground between "it doesn't make sense to go after an eight year veteran with a full NMC" and "touch nobody who's in place". Nobody is going to bat an eyelid if they move Petry or Rutta. Ditto letting Dumo walk. Long term minor Penguins like DeSmith or Ruhwedel can be vanished without much more than a "that's business".

They aren't going to move Petry. Maybe Ruutta. And I highly doubt DeSmith.

It's going to be largely the same team with a different goalie and maybe different LW (likely not upgrading over the version of Zucker we got last year) and 3C.

The team can drag Rust in public or behind closed doors. He was fine last year but we need him to be better. These NTCs/NMCs make doing business very difficult. I would pay premiums to avoid them going forward.

 

[Peat]

They aren't going to move Petry. Maybe Ruutta. And I highly doubt DeSmith.

It's going to be largely the same team with a different goalie and maybe different LW (likely not upgrading over the version of Zucker we got last year) and 3C.

The team can drag Rust in public or behind closed doors. He was fine last year but we need him to be better. These NTCs/NMCs make doing business very difficult. I would pay premiums to avoid them going forward.

Well that's as may be. But that, insofar as other teams will play, is his choice. There's only 5 guys on the roster who can tell him to stick it if he wants to make a trade. There's 20m worth of cap and 8 picks in the first three rounds over the next three years, including all the 1sts. If Dubas opts to run back largely the same team, that's his call. He is not stuck.

Also they'd better have a different LD in the top 4.

 

[Pens x]

They aren't going to move Petry. Maybe Ruutta. And I highly doubt DeSmith.

It's going to be largely the same team with a different goalie and maybe different LW (likely not upgrading over the version of Zucker we got last year) and 3C.

The team can drag Rust in public or behind closed doors. He was fine last year but we need him to be better. These NTCs/NMCs make doing business very difficult. I would pay premiums to avoid them going forward.

It would be disappointing and unacceptable if the team is largely the same. Our top six was mostly healthy and productive, but we still couldn’t make the playoffs.