Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think most people here know I'm a huge Zucker fan, but I am concerned that people have seemingly forgotten about how he played in the 2 seasons before this year.

It wasn't even just the injuries, either. He was extremely underwhelming when healthy.

I know it's like... borderline sacrilege to say this but even this past year he went through long droughts of general ham-fisted non-production. I appreciated his raw effort throughout but with a guy as beat down as he is year to year the last half decade that kind of effort is a double edged sword moving forward.

 

[Peat]

I think most people here know I'm a huge Zucker fan, but I am concerned that people have seemingly forgotten about how he played in the 2 seasons before this year.

Either he was injured or his C was injured. The few times he was fit with a fit C, he did good work.

I am concerned about him getting injured again but I'm going to be concerned about any guy playing a physical committed style. His issues don't appear to be chronic and he played through them pretty well at times.

I am concerned about Malkin getting injured again but if we're looking to find players that insulate that, it's not about Bunting or Barbashev or Garland or who ever either. That comes down to going big and getting Elias Lindholm or Clayton Keller. Which I'm down with.

But then you need to squeeze your assets elsewhere.

At which point asking yourself who's going to give you better bang for your buck next year than Zucker at 4.8m seems even more pressing.

Also in the 2 years before last year:

-Rust: 100 points in 116 games
-Zucker: 35 points in 79 games

Even if Rust's NMC wasn't an issue, trading Rust to keep Zucker seems like an absolutely bizarre decision to make. They should get a good offensive winger that meshes with Rust's skillset to play opposite of Malkin. The issue with the 2nd line from last year was that Zucker and Rust don't offer enough offensive creativity to support Malkin.

The only spot that moving Rust to makes sense right now is if you want to move him to L3 to be the line driver for that line. But even then, I'm probably looking for 2 new wingers for Malkin over re-signing Zucker.

Rust was on PP1, Zucker wasn't. Rust doesn't seem likely to go back on PP1 (and Zucker would be a better fit for the net front/bumper role that Rust is best at anyway) so Rust's PP ability is irrelevant.

Take it down to 5v5 and Rust has 50 in 116 and Zucker 27 in 79. Which still skews Rust's way, but then it should, because Rust had Crosby and Zucker had Malkin on one leg and Carter.

As such, I suspect that individual production wise, they're the same guy. Give Zucker Rust's usage and the numbers will swap.

At which point I have to side with Zucker, who has consistently shown high energy, over Rust, who seems to more and more think he's Kessel-lite.

I don't have a problem with Rust staying but he guy he has been the last few seasons isn't worth 5m if he's not on PP1.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Rust was on PP1, Zucker wasn't. Rust doesn't seem likely to go back on PP1 (and Zucker would be a better fit for the net front/bumper role that Rust is best at anyway) so Rust's PP ability is irrelevant.

Take it down to 5v5 and Rust has 50 in 116 and Zucker 27 in 79. Which still skews Rust's way, but then it should, because Rust had Crosby and Zucker had Malkin on one leg and Carter.

As such, I suspect that individual production wise, they're the same guy. Give Zucker Rust's usage and the numbers will swap.

At which point I have to side with Zucker, who has consistently shown high energy, over Rust, who seems to more and more think he's Kessel-lite.

I don't have a problem with Rust staying but he guy he has been the last few seasons isn't worth 5m if he's not on PP1.

Idk, I understand what you're saying but that's just way too big of a gap in production for me to just hand-wave away like that. Both based on the production, eye test and analytics, Zucker was just miles worse than Rust was in the last 2 years and I think people aren't remembering that.

 

[SEALBound]

I think most people here know I'm a huge Zucker fan, but I am concerned that people have seemingly forgotten about how he played in the 2 seasons before this year.

Not that injuries, lack of off-season training, or the pandemic played a role in that. Nope. No other outside factors to consider there.

Also in the 2 years before last year:

-Rust: 100 points in 116 games
-Zucker: 35 points in 79 games

Even if Rust's NMC wasn't an issue, trading Rust to keep Zucker seems like an absolutely bizarre decision to make. They should get a good offensive winger that meshes with Rust's skillset to play opposite of Malkin. The issue with the 2nd line from last year was that Zucker and Rust don't offer enough offensive creativity to support Malkin.

The only spot that moving Rust to makes sense right now is if you want to move him to L3 to be the line driver for that line. But even then, I'm probably looking for 2 new wingers for Malkin over re-signing Zucker.

I don't think those of us discussing that are saying to trade Rust to Zucker though. I think most of us are saying keep Zucker because he provided exactly what we needed and trade Rust out for someone different. As is, we can keep Rust and Zucker both without much worry (money-wise). I think the discussion is more centered around moving Rust to open up the possibility of a different player. Rust pulled this before when he got his new deal last time. His next season he went to absolute shit. Then he picked it back up.

Zucker doesn't have chronic health issues?

This is the issue. I'm fine with signing Bertuzzi over Zucker. It is the smarter signing IMO.

But, Bertuzzi has chronic upper body injuries and missed a season due to a back situation.

Zucker had a core muscle issue and broke his leg. That's about all he has in his history.

When looking at Zucker, he looked like all of his injuries were acute injuries that he recovered from. I don't recall any "oh, my knee has been bothering me for years" type of injuries.

As I've said, I don't think Zucker is at any higher risk for any particular injury than any other player that plays his style of game. Yes, as you age it adds up I think any player is at risk of any major injury really. Again, without the existence of known nagging injuries that keeps him out for a game or two here and there, I'm not sure he's in the same discussion as a guy like Bertuzzi.,

 

[AuroraBorealis]

He is also predominantly a right wing rather than a left, and more importantly, he doesn't have Zucker's ability to play like Hornqvist. He'd a be a great replacement to what Rust is being if you could somehow move Rust for value (and he'd let you) and then pick up Garland for some extra picks, but as a replacement for Zucker, that makes the top six really congested with the same type of tiny player and righties.

Rust is probably gonna bounce back and be one of our best shooters again, while also being one of our best PKers and ES defenders. Not ready to give up on him yet, just because he was a few points shy of what he should have had.

Idk Garland's LW history but I doubt it'd be an issue. Didn't seem to be when he tore us apart up the LW 30 seconds into our matchup. Most wingers now are expected to be able to do both.
But even if it is a problem, you can just do this:

Rakell - Sid - Garland
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust

Or swap the RW'ers. Everyone plays their natural positions.

Garland is similar to Zucker in that he's an excellent forechecker and skates his ass off every night. Despite the lack of size, he'll come out with the puck a lot because of that will power.
Yeah, he's not gonna be as good of a net-front, but he's a much better passer and creates chances better with lateral skating and patience.
He'd also gonna skate us out of our zone and make effective zone entries a lot.

We don't have a player like him, outside of stature. He's a play driver. A non-slacker. He'll be similar to Hornqvist in that he'll be one of the only guys giving 100% on those sleepy nights for the rest of the team.

 

[SEALBound]

Idk, I understand what you're saying but that's just way too big of a gap in production for me to just hand-wave away like that. Both based on the production, eye test and analytics, Zucker was just miles worse than Rust was in the last 2 years and I think people aren't remembering that.

No that's totally fair. Over a three year period, it's clearly Rust. But season by season, it's Rust, Rust, Zucker. Rust was not great this past season while Zucker provided literally everything that we could have asked and played like the player we thought we were getting. Sure some contract year effort may have been in there but he largely showed the same level of play that he did for years in Minny and his brief stint in 19-20 here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No that's totally fair. Over a three year period, it's clearly Rust. But season by season, it's Rust, Rust, Zucker. Rust was not great this past season while Zucker provided literally everything that we could have asked and played like the player we thought we were getting. Sure some contract year effort may have been in there but he largely showed the same level of play that he did for years in Minny and his brief stint in 19-20 here.

Why are you assuming that Zucker will maintain that level going forward?

This just seems to be massive recency bias to me. Zucker had a great year last year, but I'm not going to assume he's going to continue to be that player going forward after how much worse he was in the 2 seasons prior. Let someone else take that massive risk on him.

Moving Rust to keep Zucker is the literal definition of buying high and selling low.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Zucker doesn't have chronic health issues?

This is the issue. I'm fine with signing Bertuzzi over Zucker. It is the smarter signing IMO.

But, Bertuzzi has chronic upper body injuries and missed a season due to a back situation.

Zucker had a core muscle issue and broke his leg. That's about all he has in his history.

Is this referring to getting hit in the hand with a shot? AFAIK, Bertuzzi's back hasn't been an issue since his lost season. He also lost games due to his vaccination status.

Zucker lost time due to a wonky right knee on 3 separate occasions that we know of - 2/25/21, 12/27/21, and 3/31/22 - and his core muscle issues may well have been on account of compensating for his leg.

 

[SEALBound]

Why are you assuming that Zucker will maintain that level going forward?

This just seems to be massive recency bias to me. Zucker had a great year last year, but I'm not going to assume he's going to continue to be that player going forward after how much worse he was in the 2 seasons prior. Let someone else take that massive risk on him.

Moving Rust to keep Zucker is the literal definition of buying high and selling low.

1. Because I long believed the poor play from Zucker was due to injuries, lack of recovery and training time, and the general hardships endured through the pandemic. Once he had a full off-season to properly recover and train properly, he was back to the player we originally traded for. So do I think he has a good chance of continuing that level of play? Sure. As much as any other player. Rust got paid and stunk and he's got 5 more years left. I would suggest that if you signed Zucker for 5yrs, you would have a comparable level of concern about each of them maintaining a certain level of play. Do I know for sure? Of course not. No one does. There's no guarantee that Malkin will be PPG next year either. It's the world we live in.

2. I addressed in 1. I believe there were more compounding factors at play. 3 seasons prior, when we got him, he did provide the level of play we expected. He did 12 (6-6) in 15GP which is about what we expected. Then injuries hit. Now, that was obviously 3 years+ ago but if you're talking recency bias and calling into question up to two seasons ago, you need to include that 19-20 season, otherwise you're just cherry-picking whats good for a particular argument. It's like saying "Since 2018, Crosby has won zero cups, does that hurt his legacy?"

3. Again, as I said, that's not what I'm saying. At all.

 

[Peat]

Idk, I understand what you're saying but that's just way too big of a gap in production for me to just hand-wave away like that. Both based on the production, eye test and analytics, Zucker was just miles worse than Rust was in the last 2 years and I think people aren't remembering that.

And this year Zucker was miles better. Over the last three years, Zucker has been a more productive player per 60 and has a better relative expected goals share.

I can point to good reasons why Zucker's numbers suffered in 20-22. I can't point to good reasons why Rust comes up as a worse statistical player than Zucker over the last three seasons.

Let's hive these discussion points off.

Zucker has had a lot of consistency issues and I get why people are scared of them, even if I think there's a lot of reason to think those are behind him. I also think there's stuff he does really well that brings value beyond production and that his skill set is fairly uncommon.

Rust has had a lot of consistency issues and on top of that, has become a great example of the grinder who relaxes the moment they get their money, isn't doing anything beyond production, and whose production falls into the bucket of a lot of players could do that if given the chance. He doesn't even seem to bring any special ingredient qualities any more.

I get not being up for Zucker. But Rust, Rust deserves a ton of flak. If we can move him, do so.



I'd also point out that Zucker-Malkin-Rust was a plus line who scored freely. They scored at a higher rate than Sid and Jake. As such, I don't get saying they don't offer enough to support Geno.

 

[molon labe]

A Zucker shift is literally summed up in 3 actions: Skate like the wind, throw a medium check miles away from the play, receive grief from the other player.

A more noticeable Zucker shift includes 1 extra move: a slapper or wrist shot that fails more often than you'd like.

I think the biggest gripe has been price tag and health - but for me it's that he's the type of guy you'd have hoped was more like a Kunitz figure on Sid's line. It never shaped up that way. His style doesn't make a lot of sense for Geno...so we're kinda just....doing what exactly? I genuinely get that people liked his drive - but that's compared to a roster full of losers. I don't think Zucker stands out whatsoever in 2016 here. Any other reasons for the infatuation I just don't get.

 

[K Fleur]

Trade Rust as a sweetener to get rid of Jack Johnson.

Also this team is lame and shouldn’t resign any of it’s UFA dorks.

 

[SEALBound]

A Zucker shift is literally summed up in 3 actions: Skate like the wind, throw a medium check miles away from the play, receive grief from the other player.

A more noticeable Zucker shift includes 1 extra move: a slapper or wrist shot that fails more often than you'd like.

I think the biggest gripe has been price tag and health - but for me it's that he's the type of guy you'd have hoped was more like a Kunitz figure on Sid's line. It never shaped up that way. His style doesn't make a lot of sense for Geno...so we're kinda just....doing what exactly? I genuinely get that people liked his drive - but that's compared to a roster full of losers. I don't think Zucker stands out whatsoever in 2016 here. Any other reasons for the infatuation I just don't get.

Cool, now do literally anyone else on the team except maybe Crosby.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And this year Zucker was miles better. Over the last three years, Zucker has been a more productive player per 60 and has a better relative expected goals share.

But I personally see no reason to expect that their performances in 2022-2023 are going to be the norm going forward.

I think any talk about moving Rust is moot because he has a full NMC and wouldn't waive it. But even beyond that, I would absolutely not advocate moving Rust to keep Zucker just because of 1 season after how Zucker looked in the previous 2 seasons. The reasons for his struggles (mostly injury issues) are absolutely at risk of flaring up again.

Rust has had a history of having a mediocre season right after signing an extension, he did that in both 2017-2018 and 2022-2023. But he bounced back wildly in 2018-2019 and I expect Rust to have a similar bounceback next year. Zucker? If he starts having injury issues again, his next contract will immediately be an albatross.

I like Zucker but I just can't agree at all with the take to keep him to move Rust. Want to talk about moving Rust? I don't think he can be moved, but the discussion can at least be had. But moving Rust to keep Zucker is the literal definition of buying high and selling low.

 

[K Fleur]

I’d be down to bring back Jarry if we’re going full blown tank. He’d be team MVP tank commander.

 

[Peat]

Rust is probably gonna bounce back and be one of our best shooters again, while also being one of our best PKers and ES defenders. Not ready to give up on him yet, just because he was a few points shy of what he should have had.

Out of the 9 forwards who did 20 minutes of PKing last year for the Pens, Rust has the 4th worst xGA, 2nd worst GA, and was middle of the pack for xGF and GF. That's not one of our best PKers.

Out of the 10 forwards who played 500 minutes, Rust was 4th worst for xGA. Him being 2nd best for GA sounds like he owes the goalie a beer.

So... nah. Don't see Rust as one of our best defensive players.

We are also now three seasons removed from Rust substantially beating his expected individual goals so I'm not expecting him to be one of our best shooters.

I don't think he's a massive problem or anything. But he is absolutely just a guy at this point. More over, he has been just a guy for three seasons. Talk of him bouncing back is missing that. He can absolutely play better than he did last season and I wouldn't bet against it, but it's unlikely he's going to exceed just being a guy. It's unlikely he's going to bring a special ingredient to a line or propel the power play forwards.

And I am absolutely fine with him moving on as a result.

 

[eXile3]

I think you could move Rust if you wanted to. Considering one of our biggest issues is forward depth I don’t know if it really helps us.

 

[PensandCaps]

I'd get rid of Rust, let Zucker walk.

Sign a younger Zucker replacement in Bunting, and replace Rust with a better player in Garland, Vancouver is basically giving him away.

There are some good players to trade for, futures don't matter, we want to be as bad as possible anyway when Sid retires. Trade Pickering, 14th, Poulin, whoever to maximize a cup chance with the core.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think you could move Rust if you wanted to. Considering one of our biggest issues is forward depth I don’t know if it really helps us.

Again, Rust has a NMC and I don't see a single reason why he'd waive it.

 

[mephisto1812]

Rust's NMC says no to that

You never know untiil you ask. And like @SEALBound said, worst case he says no.... but a fire is lit under him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You never know untiil you ask. And like @SEALBound said, worst case he says no.... but a fire is lit under him.

It wouldn't even light a fire under him. Why are you assuming that Dubas, who wasn't the Penguins GM last year, would have the opinion that Rust was bad last year and needs to be better?

If Dubas asked Rust that, Rust would almost assuredly interpret it as a new GM seeing how he can imprint his own ideas on the roster and seeing how the veteran players feel about their future with the team. There is no reason to believe that the Penguins front office is upset with Rust's performance last year and would ask him to waive his NMC based on it.

 

[vikingGoalie]

Zucker is most likely priced out of our line up, he had a good contract year performance. I *HATE* rewarding people for finally livnig up to what you expected all along only because they finally show it to you in a contract year. Yes in this case injuries had a huge role.
We want to do two things with this team as it pertains to skaters.
Get younger, Get faster. Zucker will want a contract that is gonna age like a forgotten piece of fish under the car seat in the hot sun. 31 isn't ancient but his physical style will wear him down faster, we saw it this season playing well then not for a span where he is recovering.

I do like Zucker, alot. Not sure how he fits here though if he's wanting 6M for 6 years which is probably what he can get elsewhere, someone will pay that and he'd be dumb to turn down the money if there is a big diff. some projections have him at 5.4M. that's probably ok the first 2 years but once again see fish analogy. meh in duba we trust here...

 

[eXile3]

Again, Rust has a NMC and I don't see a single reason why he'd waive it.

He might waive it be because the team is trying to trade him and he sees it as them not wanting him? Didn’t Hornqvist do that?

I don’t think NMC are the end all people think they are when the player still has value. Obviously a guy like Carter who has no value it’s a different story.

I feel like players with NMC get traded all the time.

 

[Empoleon8771]

He might waive it be because the team is trying to trade him and he sees it as them not wanting him? Didn’t Hornqvist do that?

I don’t think NMC are the end all people think they are when the player still has value. Obviously a guy like Carter who has no value it’s a different story.

I feel like players with NMC get traded all the time.

JR told Hornqvist that he'd waive Hornqvist if he didn't waive his NTC. Dubas doesn't have the power to do that to Rust because Rust has a NMC, not a NTC.

Also, it's false to say that players with NMCs get traded all of the time. The only players I can recall who have been traded with a full NMC in recent years were all rentals (Giroux, Kane and Iginla stand out). Players who demand NMCs pretty much only get traded if they want out or if they're rentals on bad teams.

 

[mephisto1812]

It wouldn't even light a fire under him. Why are you assuming that Dubas, who wasn't the Penguins GM last year, would have the opinion that Rust was bad last year and needs to be better?

If Dubas asked Rust that, Rust would almost assuredly interpret it as a new GM seeing how he can imprint his own ideas on the roster and seeing how the veteran players feel about their future with the team. There is no reason to believe that the Penguins front office is upset with Rust's performance last year and would ask him to waive his NMC based on it.

Unless you have a direct line to the FO, and know for certain what they think of Rust.... I'll agree to disagree here and stand by my thoughts.