Confirmed with Link: Penguins Re-Sign Forward Brandon Sutter to a Two-Year Contract (3.3 AAV)

[AjaxTelamon]

Sutter's low fenwick/corsi/etc has a pretty obvious explanation (career, I'm talking...his possession numbers were trash with Cooke and Kennedy as well as just about everyone on Carolina)--weak players get knocked off the puck easily, don't win 50/50 pucks and aren't very good on the boards.

This is why Eric Staal can come to camp with a potbelly, sleepwalk through a season and still have decent possession numbers. If you're big and strong, reasonably coordinated and can cover good ground, your possession numbers will be positive, even if you're out of shape and don't give a crap. A smaller guy like Johnny Oduya just isn't going to be capable of winning any ice against him.

I agree about these deficiencies in both zones, but this seems compounded by his defensive game, which is really about keeping the puck to the outside, and yielding low probability shots. He rarely challenges players on the walls, either by design or because it's not his strength. His opposing shooting percentage over his entire career moves between 5.4-7.1%, while the league as a whole has moved between 8.9-9.4%. That's a pretty big difference. You could consider this a product of his low QoC, but it hasn't always been low, and he also tends to give up a much lower OppSh% on the PK as well.

So his style of defensive play gives up shots, but those shots don't tend to go in. And his durability has largely been a product of this style of play. Or he may just be afraid to get in the way of a shot, who knows.

In any case, no, he won't ever drive possession like J.Staal. Nor will he ever get paid like J.Staal either.

 

[billybudd]

I agree about these deficiencies in both zones, but this seems compounded by his defensive game, which is really about keeping the puck to the outside, and yielding low probability shots. He rarely challenges players on the walls, either by design or because it's not his strength. His opposing shooting percentage over his entire career moves between 5.4-7.1%, while the league as a whole has moved between 8.9-9.4%. That's a pretty big difference. You could consider this a product of his low QoC, but it hasn't always been low, and he also tends to give up a much lower OppSh% on the PK as well.

So his style of defensive play gives up shots, but those shots don't tend to go in. And his durability has largely been a product of this style of play. Or he may just be afraid to get in the way of a shot, who knows.

In any case, no, he won't ever drive possession like J.Staal. Nor will he ever get paid like J.Staal either.

That's probably fair.

 

[mpp9]

Bolland seems to be the guy brought up when giving an example of an ideal 3C. And he's hardly been a possession monster over the last few years. He raises his game in the playoffs, when he's healthy. But in 1 of Sutter's first 2 postseasons, he's shown he does that as well.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Bolland seems to be the guy brought up when giving an example of an ideal 3C. And he's hardly been a possession monster over the last few years. He raises his game in the playoffs, when he's healthy. But in 1 of Sutter's first 2 postseasons, he's shown he does that as well.

The deeper you look into Bolland's numbers, the more puzzling it is as to why everyone values him so much. The eye test, at least for me, is a every bit as much of a mixed bag as well. A couple of good playoffs with an excellent team made that guy about 30 mil. Just like Glass, Engo, Orpik and Nisky. Errr, yeah.

 

[billybudd]

I don't think you'll find anyone who thinks Bolland's worth that contract other than Bolland, Tallon and Bolland's agent.

Still, he's a 50% career possession player. For a 3C, that's about the best it's reasonable to expect (to expect a performance like Jordan Staal's is unreasonable).

 

[mpp9]

I don't think you'll find anyone who thinks Bolland's worth that contract other than Bolland, Tallon and Bolland's agent.

Still, he's a 50% career possession player. For a 3C, that's about the best it's reasonable to expect (to expect a performance like Jordan Staal's is unreasonable).

He hasn't been that the last few years. Routinely outshot and outscored.

 

[billybudd]

He hasn't been that the last few years. Routinely outshot and outscored.

Has there been anyone on the Carlyle Leafs besides Kessel for whom that is not true? I honestly don't know the answer.

 

[mpp9]

Has there been anyone on the Carlyle Leafs besides Kessel for whom that is not true? I honestly don't know the answer.

He didn't break the 50% shots for/against barrier going back to 10-11. And he's had a worse goals for/against ratio in all but one season than Sutter.

This is what I mean when I say what Sutter does on the ice may not be as pretty. But he's had similar or better results than Bolland defensively.

 

[Freeptop]

From what I remember, there is almost zero correlation between zone start % and zone finish %. The advantage gained from an offensive zone start is gone after roughly 10 seconds.

If you're starting outside the offensive zone most of the time, but ending inside the offensive zone most of the time, simple geography dictates that the puck must have moved into the offensive zone, and the way that happens is generally via puck possession of some sort.

This is the problem with the currently available analytics. Fans are trying to deduce possession from stats like Corsi or Fenwick, because shot attempts are the only stats provided by the League. There is a strong correlation between Corsi and Fenwick and possession, but they aren't the sole indicator of possession. It's entirely possible for a team to have an extended period of puck possession without ever shooting the puck at the net. That can be a systems problem, but it also means that the entire time spent holding on to the puck without shooting it is a statistics hole.

For example, in this video, we see an extended period of time of puck possesion that resulted in exactly one shot on goal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJPjVZjjIt0

That's obviously an extreme example (that was easily findable as a result), but I think it illustrates my point that Corsi and Fenwick don't always tell the full story on possession.


On the flip-side, though, with Sutter, I think one of his problems is a tendency to come tearing into the zone and then just fire a shot on net that gets caught by the goaltender. This means he really doesn't get that much time of possession, and while he ends his shift in the offensive zone, it turns into a face-off, where possession is potentially given up. He probably would benefit greatly from using a bit more patience to allow a linemate to go to the net before firing a shot, or at least for a linemate to get into a good passing position, which would require him to spend a bit more time fending off opponents in order to maintain possession. Some of that is systems (and Carolina wasn't much better on that score than Bylsma's Penguins), and some of that is on Sutter himself.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

For Sutter, along with about a half dozen players, the question for me has always been the Disco factor. How much has Disco ****ed him up with misuse, how much has he just plain not developed? Until that question is answered all the analysis in the world is of limited value.

Canes fans always raved about him for one thing, he seems to have taken a step back here, as has a few other players, and you can not discount how the coaches have used some players as a possible factor in that.

A two year deal gives us a chance to possibly see, depending on what this great unknown of a coach we have hired does with him. Yes, he will cost more if he does thrive, but we couldn't have secured him on a longer deal cheap anyways.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

If you're starting outside the offensive zone most of the time, but ending inside the offensive zone most of the time, simple geography dictates that the puck must have moved into the offensive zone, and the way that happens is generally via puck possession of some sort.

This is the problem with the currently available analytics. Fans are trying to deduce possession from stats like Corsi or Fenwick, because shot attempts are the only stats provided by the League. There is a strong correlation between Corsi and Fenwick and possession, but they aren't the sole indicator of possession. It's entirely possible for a team to have an extended period of puck possession without ever shooting the puck at the net. That can be a systems problem, but it also means that the entire time spent holding on to the puck without shooting it is a statistics hole.

For example, in this video, we see an extended period of time of puck possesion that resulted in exactly one shot on goal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJPjVZjjIt0

That's obviously an extreme example (that was easily findable as a result), but I think it illustrates my point that Corsi and Fenwick don't always tell the full story on possession.


On the flip-side, though, with Sutter, I think one of his problems is a tendency to come tearing into the zone and then just fire a shot on net that gets caught by the goaltender. This means he really doesn't get that much time of possession, and while he ends his shift in the offensive zone, it turns into a face-off, where possession is potentially given up. He probably would benefit greatly from using a bit more patience to allow a linemate to go to the net before firing a shot, or at least for a linemate to get into a good passing position, which would require him to spend a bit more time fending off opponents in order to maintain possession. Some of that is systems (and Carolina wasn't much better on that score than Bylsma's Penguins), and some of that is on Sutter himself.

Last year at least in the regular season, Sutter's linemates were awful. Awful shooting percentage, awful Corsi/possession players, etc. The guy played like it was a successful shift to get it out of our zone, carry through the neutral zone and either score off the rush or get a faceoff for our top lines. His zone start and finish stats bear this out. And that made sense with his supporting cast. When he had Gibbons, JJ, or Dupuis he didn't play the same way.

 

[Riptide]

he said he has tried to put on weight and can't. I guess he could be a liar though. He's bigger than Kunitz and Hornqvist as is.

I doubt it. If he says he's tried (and he seriously did) then, it's more likely he just doesn't have the frame to bulk up. Not every tall player can put on muscle, and be 220+ lbs.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

I doubt it. If he says he's tried (and he seriously did) then, it's more likely he just doesn't have the frame to bulk up. Not every tall player can put on muscle, and be 220+ lbs.

Well, in a recent article Sutter said he was traveling and camping when the contract discussions were going on. So maybe he should spend a summer with a trainer.

 

[wej20]

Well, in a recent article Sutter said he was traveling and camping when the contract discussions were going on. So maybe he should spend a summer with a trainer.

the guy is allowed to take a holiday.

 

[mpp9]

I think the player he was in Carolina is more than enough as a 3C here. He doesn't need to bulk up. He needs linemates and a coach who uses his skillset properly.

I think 20 goals and 35-40 pts with one of the best GA stat column among 3Cs while going up against top competition is within reason.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

the guy is allowed to take a holiday.

Most people take between 10-15 days off a year, and vacation for a week of that. He can probably fit in some time to lift a weight. He's not Mario

 

[Ogrezilla]

Most people take between 10-15 days off a year, and vacation for a week of that. He can probably fit in some time to lift a weight. He's not Mario

I'm sure he does.