Confirmed with Link: Penguins avoid arbitration with Dumoulin for another 6 years AAV $4.1million

[Penske]

6 years boom! Not a bad AAV early on and will look better as the years go on

 

[3074326]

The contract might seem a little high now, but it's a six year deal. By the end of it, if he continues to improve, he will be an excellent defenseman and the contract will be great.

We know what we're getting with Dumo. He brings something we need. And he can bring it for six years.

 

[Tender Rip]

In 2 years this will look freaking beautiful.

I suppose that is the way to look at it.
We are paying a million or so too much in the next two years - half a million for sure - to pay a million or so less in the last four.

But it will look beautiful only if Dumo adds some offense to his game. In that case, yes. Otherwise it is merely a decent, fair value, contract. But I suppose expecting more than that is also being spoiled.

Honestly though, I am surprised JR didn't prioritize the short term cap efficiency.

Think it is more likely that Sheary or Hags are bait now, and no one should expect any extension for Conor.

 

[OnMyOwn]

This number hurts in the short term, but he's a solid top 4 defensive d so I'm not upset and it'll look better in the coming years.

 

[Peat]

Seems a little high considering his complete and total lack of offensive talent but oh well.

I had been of that way of thinking but when Alzner got 4.5m in free agency, I stopped thinking that way.

Imagine this deal being like we'd signed Dumo to a 4 x 4.5m when he hit free agency after having him for 2 x 3.3m as an RFA. Think the numbers work out there. That's what we've done with the cap hit being averaged out. Seems fair and sensible to me.

edit: p.s. While the number may hurt in the short term, the Pens look so comfy within the cap for the next two years it doesn't really matter.

 

[TNT87]

Sweet.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

I had been of that way of thinking but when Alzner got 4.5m in free agency, I stopped thinking that way.

Imagine this deal being like we'd signed Dumo to a 4 x 4.5m when he hit free agency after having him for 2 x 3.3m as an RFA. Think the numbers work out there. That's what we've done with the cap hit being averaged out. Seems fair and sensible to me.

edit: p.s. While the number may hurt in the short term, the Pens look so comfy within the cap for the next two years it doesn't really matter.

Yeah was just gonna mention Alzner. Pretty much ends the conversation there. Plus we've got a guy like Hunwick making about $1 million less than what people wanted Dumo to get. No way. Solid D make $4+ million. Just the way it is.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Happy about the term.

 

[Coach Travis]

I really really hope I'm wrong about this contract. That just seems like an abhorrent amount of risk in terms of cap hit and especially term.

 

[radapex]

Most def who produce such little offense don't get payed this much, Smith did, but most don't.

Its not an awful deal, just a little more then i'd like.

Some comparables from the past few months:

Dmitry Kulikov, WPG - 3 years @ $4,333,333 +M-NTC
2016-17 BUF: 47 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS, -26
2015-16 FLA: 74 GP, 1 G, 16 A, 17 PT, +8
2014-15 FLA: 73 GP, 3 G, 19 A, 22 PTS, -26
2013-14 FLA: 81 GP, 8 G, 11 A, 19 PTS, -26

Karl Alzner, MTL - 5 years @ $4,625,000 +M-NTC
2016-17 WSH: 82 GP, 3 G, 10 A, 13 PTS, +23
2015-16 WSH: 82 GP, 4 G, 17 A, 21 PTS, +14
2014-15 WSH: 82 GP, 5 G, 16 A, 21 PTS, +14
2013-14 WSH: 82 GP, 2 G, 16 A, 18 PTS, -7

Brendan Smith, NYR - 4 years @ $4,350,000 +M-NTC
2016-17 DET/NYR: 51 GP, 3 G, 6 A, 10 PTS, +1
2015-16 DET: 63 GP, 3 G, 12 A, 15 PTS, +1
2014-15 DET: 76 GP, 4 G, 9 A, 13 PTS, -2
2013-14 DET: 71 GP, 5 G, 14 A, 19 PTS, -2

Kris Russell, EDM - 4 years @ $4,000,000 +NMC +M-NTC
2016-17 EDM: 68 GP, 1 G, 12 A, 13 PTS, +5
2015-16 CGY/DAL: 62 GP, 4 G, 15 A, 19 PTS, -5
2014-15 CGY: 79 GP, 4 G, 30 A, 34 PTS, +18
2013-14 CGY: 68 GP, 7 G, 22 A, 29 PTS, -11


Russell is kind of a strange case because he did have those two really productive seasons with Calgary - but those appear to be outliers compared to the rest of his career.

 

[Dr Frasier Crane]

Some of you have said it - it is probably a little less than $1M high for the next two years, but with the cap increasing every year and just entering his prime, we should really benefit from the last 3 years.

And he'll still get to cash in again at 31.

 

[kodoshin]

My expectations were: 3.5- Dumoulin needs to fire his agent. 4.5- Rutherford got taken to the cleaners. 4.0- Perfect.

 

[RizzleMcRib]

Seems a little high considering his complete and total lack of offensive talent but oh well.

We have enough people to score goals. We don't really need them from Dumoulin. I know +/- can be a misleading stat, but he has never been a - player. I would much rather pay him 4.1 rather than someone who puts up points like Mike Green for 6 a year or a guy like Phaneuf for 7.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Some of you have said it - it is probably a little less than $1M high for the next two years, but with the cap increasing every year and just entering his prime, we should really benefit from the last 3 years.

And he'll still get to cash in again at 31.

It's really not though, as explained by radapex above.

 

[radapex]

We have enough people to score goals. We don't really need them from Dumoulin. I know +/- can be a misleading stat, but he has never been a - player. I would much rather pay him 4.1 rather than someone who puts up points like Mike Green for 6 a year or a guy like Phaneuf for 7.

All Dumoulin really needs to do is continue to play that Methot-style role as a stay-at-home partner for Letang/Schultz. Anything above that is a bonus. But having that reliably steady defensive partner can allow Letang/Schultz the freedom to do what they do best.

 

[canadianguy77]

The term makes it more palatable.

 

[Dr Frasier Crane]

It's really not though, as explained by radapex above.

Not sure how comparing UFAs, where teams are bidding against the entire league, to an RFA on the verge of arbitration, where you're bidding against no one, by showing offensive totals for a defenseman is fair, but okay.

EDIT: And I'm happy with the contract!

 

[Speaking Moistly]

It seems a bit high but whatever.

 

[RizzleMcRib]

All Dumoulin really needs to do is continue to play that Methot-style role as a stay-at-home partner for Letang/Schultz. Anything above that is a bonus. But having that reliably steady defensive partner can allow Letang/Schultz the freedom to do what they do best.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Fantastic deal, glad he is going to be here for a while

 

[CertifiedLurker]

AAV is alright, not great but not bad either. I think its pretty obvious that Dumoulin had to get a significant extension, defense is not a position this team has in abundance and even if he's not anything special offensively, he's adequate defensively. Don't think Sheary will be getting a contract like that, although if he does, I don't expect some wingers to be retained over the next 2 seasons (Hagelin, probably Hornqvist ).

 

[thecore]

It's a decent deal for both sides. Dumo gives up some AAV in his prime UFA years, we give up some term. My only concern would be if he breaks down early. He is going to play a lot of hard minutes.

 

[radapex]

It's really not though, as explained by radapex above.

It is. If you take those 4 comparables, the average AAV is about $4.33-mil (gee, I wonder where Dumoulin got his request from!). Adjusting for cap inflation using 5% growth (ie: assuming the escalator clause is invoked each year) gives us the following:

• 2017: $4.33-mil
• 2018: $4.55-mil
• 2019: $4.77-mil (this is where Dumo turns UFA)
• 2020: $5.01-mil
• 2021: $5.26-mil
• 2022: $5.53-mil

So that $4.33-mil Dumoulin comparable right now, following inflation to when he's slated to turn UFA in 2023, would be going for about $5.80-mil.

In essence, the "$1-mil over to $1-mil under" statement is pretty accurate. They're overpaying him by probably $500-$800k these next two seasons to save $600k+ over his 4 UFA years.

 

[Penske]

I really really hope I'm wrong about this contract. That just seems like an abhorrent amount of risk in terms of cap hit and especially term.

Dumoulin should be a pretty safe bet for a long term deal. He probably won't get much better but he likely wouldn't be much worse than what he is now.

 

[ColePens]

I suppose that is the way to look at it.
We are paying a million or so too much in the next two years - half a million for sure - to pay a million or so less in the last four.

But it will look beautiful only if Dumo adds some offense to his game. In that case, yes. Otherwise it is merely a decent, fair value, contract. But I suppose expecting more than that is also being spoiled.

Honestly though, I am surprised JR didn't prioritize the short term cap efficiency.

Think it is more likely that Sheary or Hags are bait now, and no one should expect any extension for Conor.

I disagree that he has to add more offense to his game. Not every player is a Schultz/Letang. There are Dumos of the world that play top 4 minutes and enable Letang/Schultz to do their thing.

And if he's 500k overpaid, would anyone actually let him walk for the 500k? I sure as hell would not.