Salary Cap: Pen Salary Cap: Dr StrangeDubas "Sir, you can't let him in here. He'll see everything. He'll see the big board!"

[TheGoldenJet]

On the flip side, that scenario makes me worried EK won't do well if we were to obtain him bc of Letang

Leave it to Sullsma to keep Kris “Can’t QB” Letang on PP1, and put EK on PP2.

 

[Headshot77]

I still think that the Karlsson trade won't involve Granlund going out and it will involve heavy retention from San Jose and maybe 1 other team.

I'm still sticking with:

-Penguins get Karlsson at $7.5 million
-Sharks get Petry, Smith, Poulin and a conditional 2025 1st (1st if they make the ECF in 2024 or 2025, 2nd otherwise) while retaining $2 million on Karlsson
-Anaheim gets a 2024 1st for retaining $2 million on Karlsson

In total, it's Petry, Smith, Poulin, a 2024 1st and a conditional 2025 1st for Karlsson at $7.5 million, but San Jose loses the 2024 1st to a third team because they're not willing to eat the full $4 million.

I don't hate the framework of this deal, but if the Pens were willing to dump two firsts to make this work it would already be done.

I think a simpler trade would be one involving Petry+1st+Prospect for Karlsson in the 9 million range, then paying Anaheim to take Granlund and/or Carter for a second. (I'm still hopeful Carter would waive his NMC to go back to California)

 

[Ryder71]

Leave it to Sullsma to keep Kris “Can’t QB” Letang on PP1, and put EK on PP2.

Pretty sure if they get EK he QB's PP1 with Letang playing the half wall.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Re-signing DOC and no other moves (23 man roster), I've got the Pens being over the cap by about $1.4M to $2M.

You send Ruhwedel to WBS and don't replace him and the Pens are still over the cap.

Something is happening.

Exactly.

Even if you go to the following 22-man roster, you're over the cap by $1.2 million.

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Smith-Malkin-Rakell
DOC-Eller-Acciari
Nieto-Granlund-Carter
Nylander

Graves-Letang
Pettersson-Petry
POJ-Rutta
Ruhwedel

Jarry
Nedelkjovic

 

[Ryder71]

Oh, so we intend to be stupid then. Got it.

What was your moniker before this one?

 

[Peat]

One way to put the need for retention on Karlsson goes like this -

Imagine the Pens are at the deadline and looking good and looking for forward depth.

3m of retention is the difference between getting Brandon Hagel for 2 1sts, or well, any other trade deadline deal that isn't built around overpaying for the cheapest actually decent player on the market.

Unless people think the team is good enough with just Karlsson, they have to get that retention, and the only way it's acceptable to not do so is to pay such a tiny price that the team can be active for Hagels if needed.

Also, the idea that Karlsson and Burns didn't work well together in San Jose isn't exactly right. It's just that both are better being the primary offensive drivers from the defense on their teams. Karlsson and Burns both had great seasons away from each other last year, but the two were mostly good with each other in the years both played in San Jose.

It's just that both take away the production from the other a bit. I imagine that will happen to Karlsson in Pittsburgh as well, but that still should have him producing at a 60-70 point pace over a full season. My expectations for both Letang and Karlsson on the same team would be about 65 points for Karlsson and 55 points for Letang, assuming both play a full 82 game season.

For reference, Letang has paced for 65 points per 82 games over the last 8 seasons (406 points in 514 games) and Karlsson has paced for 72 points per 82 games over the last 8 seasons (458 points in 523 games). Both guys will have their production fall from having to split minutes, but both should still be very productive defensemen.

This sounds broadly right.

The question is whether that's worth getting Karlsson for, or whether it's only worth getting him if we have bigger expectations.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I was thinking about a potential Karlsson trade and I realized that if the Penguins include Petry, DeSmith and Rutta while bringing in Karlsson at $7.5 million, they barely become cap compliant (as in like $100k in cap space) and can make a 22 man roster work. I know people hate the idea of Ruhwedel playing in an everyday role, but you could keep Smith in a potential Karlsson deal and run with these D pairs:

Graves-Letang
Pettersson-Karlsson
POJ/Smith-Ruhwedel
Smith/POJ

The nice thing is that Smith can also play RD, so you could also run with POJ-Smith if those guys can make a successful pair.

 

[ChaosAgent]

What was your moniker before this one?

Also an avocado. And Adam Frazier

 

[Ryder71]

Also an avocado. And Adam Frazier

I meant what was your name, but I'm betting you already knew that.

 

[Zirakzigil]

I was thinking about a potential Karlsson trade and I realized that if the Penguins include Petry, DeSmith and Rutta while bringing in Karlsson at $7.5 million, they barely become cap compliant (as in like $100k in cap space) and can make a 22 man roster work. I know people hate the idea of Ruhwedel playing in an everyday role, but you could keep Smith in a potential Karlsson deal and run with these D pairs:

Graves-Letang
Pettersson-Karlsson
POJ/Smith-Ruhwedel
Smith/POJ

The nice thing is that Smith can also play RD, so you could also run with POJ-Smith if those guys can make a successful pair.

Trading Rutta is bad enough, now you want Ruh in full time?!?! Absolutely not.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

How can we know that Rossi has been spot on in any Karlsson reporting? I don’t see any way to confirm his accuracy.

 

[ChaosAgent]

One way to put the need for retention on Karlsson goes like this -

Imagine the Pens are at the deadline and looking good and looking for forward depth.

3m of retention is the difference between getting Brandon Hagel for 2 1sts, or well, any other trade deadline deal that isn't built around overpaying for the cheapest actually decent player on the market.

Unless people think the team is good enough with just Karlsson, they have to get that retention, and the only way it's acceptable to not do so is to pay such a tiny price that the team can be active for Hagels if needed.



This sounds broadly right.

The question is whether that's worth getting Karlsson for, or whether it's only worth getting him if we have bigger expectations.

But what is the difference between having San Jose just take Granlund and Petry? Wouldn't Granlund eating $5m of the cap...uh, also stop the Hagels?

The problem with the retention from SJS's POV is that it lasts for too long. They would be fine to wat even more the first couple years but $3-4m when they think they'll be good again is unacceptable. The financial instrument is to have them max out on our bad contracts.

 

[Ryder71]

SJ has severe limitations in trading EK. we DON'T HAVE TO OVERPAY FOR HIM.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I meant what was your name, but I'm betting you already knew that.

DOC skitters, my dude

 

[Empoleon8771]

Trading Rutta is bad enough, now you want Ruh in full time?!?! Absolutely not.

I mean if you're playing that top-4 22+ minutes a night, do you want to be spending $2.75 million a year on Rutta?

I'd rather not make Ruhwedel a regular either, but I'd like to find someone much more cost appropriate than Rutta for the 3rd pair if they're bringing in EK. Someone like Schenn in past years would be perfect, I don't know who like that is available at this point though.

 

[Ryder71]

DOC skitters, my dude

My main man, wassupppppp!

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Pretty sure if they get EK he QB's PP1 with Letang playing the half wall.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the Penguins first powerplay unit.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

SJ has severe limitations in trading EK. we DON'T HAVE TO OVERPAY FOR HIM.

And they do not have to trade him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

How can we know that Rossi has been spot on in any Karlsson reporting? I don’t see any way to confirm his accuracy.

What he is saying has been completely in line with what other reporters are saying. It's either they're all wrong or they're all right because all of them are saying very similar things.

 

[Zbynek]

And they do not have to trade him.

No better time than now if you're Grier...

 

[Ryder71]

And they do not have to trade him.

Wow, well that's showing us! That's good asset management! Grier is a genius, keep a depreciating asset with an onerous cap hit, to stick to the Pens!

 

[Zirakzigil]

I mean if you're playing that top-4 22+ minutes a night, do you want to be spending $2.75 million a year on Rutta?

I'd rather not make Ruhwedel a regular either, but I'd like to find someone much more cost appropriate than Rutta for the 3rd pair if they're bringing in EK. Someone like Schenn in past years would be perfect, I don't know who like that is available at this point though.

Except you are taking out what little physicality we have on the blueline, Rutta and Petry arent afraid to use the body and clear the front of the net. Our defense is already toilet paper soft, lets not make it worse.

 

[Peat]

But what is the difference between having San Jose just take Granlund and Petry? Wouldn't Granlund eating $5m of the cap...uh, also stop the Hagels?

The problem with the retention from SJS's POV is that it lasts for too long. They would be fine to wat even more the first couple years but $3-4m when they think they'll be good again is unacceptable. The financial instrument is to have them max out on our bad contracts.

They are variations of the same problem. Neither moves the dial enough.

Realistically, for the Pens to be serious about contending, they need to turn the money spent on Petry and Granlund into more than just Erik Karlsson. Ergo, however it happens, Karlsson must come with retention.

If that means San Jose won't do it and they have to try and do it another way, so be it.

But the team should absolutely not lock themselves into good but not good enough without big incentives i.e. basically getting Karlsson for free.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Except you are taking out what little physicality we have on the blueline, Rutta and Petry arent afraid to use the body and clear the front of the net. Our defense is already toilet paper soft, lets not make it worse.

You can replace Ruhwedel with someone more physical if that's your concern. They can tell Ruhwedel to piss off to WBS, I'd have no issues with that.

They could go out and sign Cal Foote in UFA to replace Ruhwedel if that would be sufficient. Or maybe they can trade for Logan Stanley and run with Stanley-Smith as the 3rd pair. I think there are options out there that you can go with that are most cost effective than Rutta on the 3rd pair behind Letang and Karlsson.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

It's always a little funny to me that somehow Chad Ruhwedel has been on this team for like seven seasons.

Straw that stirs the drink bucket of bogwater.