Speculation: Paul Martin Trade or Buyout? (if there's a season)

[wgknestrick]

when did jack johnson become terrible?

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1260

He is even more "terrible" relative to his contract. I place him along with JayBo as 2 of the worst defensive D men in the game that play big minutes. If you follow advance stats (I know most don't) analysis you know these things. He is still a relic of the old guard school of NHL thought. Drafted high and shows some skill.....that skill does not equate to tangible results. Given many minutes due to his high draft spot (which is simply the team that drafted him mistake) even though he has demonstrated to be a poor player. He is a bust, but teams still think he is the player that deserved to be selected #3 overall instead of looking at his play and results.

#1. Look at how much better his team started doing once he was gone. I realize that Carter also came the other way. Carter is a much better player (not even close). This is the deal the made LA win the cup. They replaced their worst player with one of their best.

#2. -85 career +-. I can only buy the excuse he's been on bad teams for so long before I start to question is Jack Johnson the reason they are so bad? Why do you lead almost every team you've played for with negative +-? Yes he puts up points, but at what cost? Doesn't seem like his scoring is worth much considering his opponents seem to be scoring much more when he's on the ice. Which brings me to..

#3. He has stuck out like a sore thumb in every defensive metric on every NHL team he's ever played for (Corsi, +-/icetime, GAA/60min) all while usually going against 3rd line competition. I don't want to get into every detail, but trust me, if you can find any data supporting him as a good player, please let the world in on it. He is not "that young" and "is what he is".

These things combine to make a player terrible in my eyes. If all you need is a player to run the point on a PP and can bench him the rest of the game, he is great. That is a very small portion of the game to be good at IMO.

 

[Sivek]

Johnson is essentially MA Bergeron with draft pedigree. It really shows how much leeway being a really high draft pick gives you. Johnson is just a terrible, terrible defensive player anyway you look at it, analytical, eye test, etc.

I don't put much, if any stock, into +/-, but there was a 4 season stretch or something where he was double digits worse than anyone else in the entire league and this is a guy who was playing on with Jon Quick most of his career.

People thought Scuderi was playing relatively poorly for the Kings for a while before last season, but his play looked bad mainly because he played primarily with Johnson. He played about 45% less often with Johnson last season than in past years and all of a sudden he went back to being a good defensive d-man.

If JJ wasn't drafted so high, I'd say it's pretty likely he would been putting up John Slaney numbers in the AHL or be a situational guy like Bergeron.

 

[Hottubber]

I'm not saying JJ is a Norris candidate but he is getting a little too much hate I think

 

[Shrimper]

Going by what I've heard we could trade some of the salary of Martin away as well.

Going by this which states:

1. Teams can only have three contracts on the books where they’ve retained salary in a trade

2. Teams can keep only up to 15 per cent of the salary cap in a given year, meaning they would max out at $9.645-million under the $64.3-million cap that’s likely to be in place in 2013-14 and 2014-15

3. Only 50 per cent of a contract can be kept

4. A contract can only be traded in one of these deals twice

So using Martin as an example if someone was willing to take 80% of Martin's contract which is $5m for two more years after this. 80% is $4m so a team could take Martin on for $4m and we'd have a cap hit of $1m for the next two years from him.

 

[KIRK]

Going by what I've heard we could trade some of the salary of Martin away as well.

Going by this which states:



So using Martin as an example if someone was willing to take 80% of Martin's contract which is $5m for two more years after this. 80% is $4m so a team could take Martin on for $4m and we'd have a cap hit of $1m for the next two years from him.

Welcome to the party, Shrimper, but I think a few teams will be a lot more creative when it comes to exploiting that loophole.

As I keep saying, Calgary may rebuild. Their owner is a billionaire. Cammallerri, Bouwmeester, and Kiprusoff come of the books after the 2013-2014 season.

If Jay Feaster decided to go full rebuild and put those three on the market with the proviso that he'd eat half the cap hit, those three IMO become three of the best trade deadline values out there.

It definitely can help a team accelerate a rebuild, and I have this scary vision that a guy like Sather or Holmgren is going to exploit it big time.

 

[Hottubber]

Welcome to the party, Shrimper, but I think a few teams will be a lot more creative when it comes to exploiting that loophole.

As I keep saying, Calgary may rebuild. Their owner is a billionaire. Cammallerri, Bouwmeester, and Kiprusoff come of the books after the 2013-2014 season.

If Jay Feaster decided to go full rebuild and put those three on the market with the proviso that he'd eat half the cap hit, those three IMO become three of the best trade deadline values out there.

It definitely can help a team accelerate a rebuild, and I have this scary vision that a guy like Sather or Holmgren is going to exploit it big time.

Feaster has a massive problem with admitting they need to rebuild. His devotion to cling to the teams playoff chances is like Bylsmas fixation with grinders.

It would be scary if they did blow up the team cause as you suggested, Holmgren would be all over it

 

[Shrimper]

Welcome to the party, Shrimper, but I think a few teams will be a lot more creative when it comes to exploiting that loophole.

As I keep saying, Calgary may rebuild. Their owner is a billionaire. Cammallerri, Bouwmeester, and Kiprusoff come of the books after the 2013-2014 season.

If Jay Feaster decided to go full rebuild and put those three on the market with the proviso that he'd eat half the cap hit, those three IMO become three of the best trade deadline values out there.

It definitely can help a team accelerate a rebuild, and I have this scary vision that a guy like Sather or Holmgren is going to exploit it big time.

Agree. It can be used to make deals more suitable for teams as well rather than just proposing players teams can also offer to take salary to sweeten it. I think some players are now more available because of that. I mean, look at Iginla. His cap hit is $7m and very few teams are going to take that with the cap hit going down but if a team were able to get him for $3.5m-$4.0m then I think they'd do it.

 

[Shady Machine]

Feaster has a massive problem with admitting they need to rebuild. His devotion to cling to the teams playoff chances is like Bylsmas fixation with grinders.

It would be scary if they did blow up the team cause as you suggested, Holmgren would be all over it

I don't really get this notion that rich market teams like Sather or Holmgren would be all over it (other than they are trade hungry). I mean you have to find a team that has money to waste. Why wouldn't we be all over it?

 

[KIRK]

I don't really get this notion that rich market teams like Sather or Holmgren would be all over it (other than they are trade hungry). I mean you have to find a team that has money to waste. Why wouldn't we be all over it?

I don't think you follow.

J-Bo is a waste at 6.6M. Are you saying he's a waste at 3.3M, which is what the team acquiring him would take on IF Calgary were willing to eat 50% of his cap/salary hit?

No offense, but IF I'm GM of a contending team and I'm told that J-Bo is available for 3.3M, then I'm very, very interested.

As I said, Philly could acquire Cammallerri, J-Bo, AND Kiprusoff for a combined cap hit of like 9.2M IF Calgary would eat half of their cap hits.

Here, I'll relate it in Penguins terms:

What's the market this summer for Paul Martin like at 5M a year for two years? What's it like at 3.5M, where Shero could eat 1.5M in the cap hit, figuring Despres or Morrow on a rookie deal takes his place?

OR, say TB is out of it. Malone has three years at a 4.5M cap hit. Salaries are 3M, 2.5M, and 2.5M. Do you want him? What would you give. NOW, say TB would eat a third of that? What's three years of Malone worth at a 3M cap hit?

Or, are you saying that J-Bo at 3.3M, Martin at 3.5M, Malone at 3M, or Cammallerri at 3M would be considered 'wastes' in the open market.

No offense, but Holmgren could add Cammallerri, J-Bo, and Kipper this year for the playoff run, have them on the books combined for 9.2M next year, and just use his buyouts on Briere and the head case (which frees up over 12M). What's the 'waste'?

What you need is a team with the money and will to do this as a buyer and a team with the money as a seller.

 

[Darth Vitale]

We ought to be more concerned with Geno coming back than who Martin's partner defensively is

No we oughtn't. Geno is not Kovalchuk.

The article's up and the winner is... Orpik

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories...o-be-different-prominent-for-penguins-669598/

What intrigues me the most about the article though are these parts:

Bylsma, who knows better than most how much Martin struggled in 2011-12, projects him as a top-four defenseman, and is leaning toward deploying him with Brooks Orpik on the top defense-oriented pairing.
"Depending on how our lineup shakes out in camp and going into the first game, being paired with Orpik is a possibility that we maybe haven't done in the past," Bylsma said.

So if Orpik and Martin are together, who's with Letang?

Despres.

I refuse to join the almost-group-think that suggests he won't be in the lineup strictly for cap and contract reasons vs. waiving someone, etc.

If Despres was ready and playing in the NHL last year without much issue as a rookie... and he has the size and type of game to compliment our D needs... why wouldn't he be here? Short of a bad camp performance I mean. I suppose he could be in line for "Callup #1" if someone else falters but I think he'll make the team. He's done everything he can do in the AHL in terms of learning the system, etc. If he's not 100% healthy I suppose that's another reason but if that's the case, sooner or later they'll call him up this season and he'll stick IMO.

Believe in Elmer ™

Orpik - Eggs (He needs a new nickname)
Elmer - Letang
?

 

[Shrimper]

Heck, could even do things like Salary retention whilst trading other players that way to minimize the amount.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I don't think you follow.

J-Bo is a waste at 6.6M. Are you saying he's a waste at 3.3M, which is what the team acquiring him would take on IF Calgary were willing to eat 50% of his cap/salary hit?

No offense, but IF I'm GM of a contending team and I'm told that J-Bo is available for 3.3M, then I'm very, very interested.

As I said, Philly could acquire Cammallerri, J-Bo, AND Kiprusoff for a combined cap hit of like 9.2M IF Calgary would eat half of their cap hits.

Here, I'll relate it in Penguins terms:

What's the market this summer for Paul Martin like at 5M a year for two years? What's it like at 3.5M, where Shero could eat 1.5M in the cap hit, figuring Despres or Morrow on a rookie deal takes his place?

OR, say TB is out of it. Malone has three years at a 4.5M cap hit. Salaries are 3M, 2.5M, and 2.5M. Do you want him? What would you give. NOW, say TB would eat a third of that? What's three years of Malone worth at a 3M cap hit?

Or, are you saying that J-Bo at 3.3M, Martin at 3.5M, Malone at 3M, or Cammallerri at 3M would be considered 'wastes' in the open market.

No offense, but Holmgren could add Cammallerri, J-Bo, and Kipper this year for the playoff run, have them on the books combined for 9.2M next year, and just use his buyouts on Briere and the head case (which frees up over 12M). What's the 'waste'?

What you need is a team with the money and will to do this as a buyer and a team with the money as a seller.

I don't know why you're making it seem like other teams are so much more likely to take advantage of it than we are. Obviously, you need the seller to have the cash and the cap space. But what does being a rich market team have to do with it on the side that is getting the players for less money? I think that's Shady's point.

Despres.

I refuse to join the group-think that suggests he won't be in the lineup strictly for cap and contract reasons vs. waiving someone, etc. If Despres was ready and playing in the NHL last year without much issue as a rookie... and he has the size and type of game to compliment our D needs... why wouldn't he be here? Short of a bad camp performance I mean. I suppose he could be in line for "Callup #1" if someone else falters but I think he'll make the team. He's done everything he can do in the AHL in terms of learning the system, etc. If he's not 100% healthy I suppose that's another reason but if that's the case, sooner or later they'll call him up this season and he'll stick IMO.

Believe in Elmer ™

I want him on the team. If he's here, I don't expect him to be penciled in for 19 minutes of ES time a night against other team's best players right off the bat.

 

[KIRK]

Feaster has a massive problem with admitting they need to rebuild. His devotion to cling to the teams playoff chances is like Bylsmas fixation with grinders.

It would be scary if they did blow up the team cause as you suggested, Holmgren would be all over it

I don't disagree with that, but I think it's a different story in March.

Seriously, I was talking about this with my brother. Calgary was the other team that had Pouliot rated high. What if they said at the deadline we'll give you Cammy, J-Bo, and Sarich where we eat 50% of the cap/payroll hit. We want TK, Tangradi, and Pouliot in return (maybe even more).

What is it worth it to have those three for a playoff run this year and then on the books next year for a combined 7.3M?

Cap will be 64.3M next year. IF you made that deal, then you'd have 59.925 on the books. Oh, then, when TB is out of it at the deadline, you make a deal to get Malone where they eat a third of his cap hit/salary. Now, you've got 62.925M on the books.

Defense would be set with Letang, Orpik, Martin, J-Bo, Nisky, Sarich, Engo. Goalies would be set. You'd have 9 forwards, including Kunitz-Sid-Cammy and Malone-Geno-Neal and Sutter (Glass and Vitale are the other two).

Alas, you've only got 1.3M to fill in the roster . . . trading Paul Martin would seem to solve that problem.

THAT is how you game the salary cap trading clause to go for it this year and next in spite of a 64.3M cap.

I will say this: If Ray Shero doesn't try it, then someone else will.

 

[Darth Vitale]

I want him on the team. If he's here, I don't expect him to be penciled in for 19 minutes of ES time a night against other team's best players right off the bat.

If he's 2nd pairing with Letang he's not going to be against the best players every shift. As for 19 minutes I think he could eat that for lunch given his conditioning and age. I don't want to see the kid regress; get his ass in there and show him the ropes.

 

[Shady Machine]

I don't think you follow.

J-Bo is a waste at 6.6M. Are you saying he's a waste at 3.3M, which is what the team acquiring him would take on IF Calgary were willing to eat 50% of his cap/salary hit?

No offense, but IF I'm GM of a contending team and I'm told that J-Bo is available for 3.3M, then I'm very, very interested.

As I said, Philly could acquire Cammallerri, J-Bo, AND Kiprusoff for a combined cap hit of like 9.2M IF Calgary would eat half of their cap hits.

Here, I'll relate it in Penguins terms:

What's the market this summer for Paul Martin like at 5M a year for two years? What's it like at 3.5M, where Shero could eat 1.5M in the cap hit, figuring Despres or Morrow on a rookie deal takes his place?

OR, say TB is out of it. Malone has three years at a 4.5M cap hit. Salaries are 3M, 2.5M, and 2.5M. Do you want him? What would you give. NOW, say TB would eat a third of that? What's three years of Malone worth at a 3M cap hit?

Or, are you saying that J-Bo at 3.3M, Martin at 3.5M, Malone at 3M, or Cammallerri at 3M would be considered 'wastes' in the open market.

No offense, but Holmgren could add Cammallerri, J-Bo, and Kipper this year for the playoff run, have them on the books combined for 9.2M next year, and just use his buyouts on Briere and the head case (which frees up over 12M). What's the 'waste'?

What you need is a team with the money and will to do this as a buyer and a team with the money as a seller.

No kidding but what I'm saying why the hell wouldn't we be in on Cammy or J-Bo even? It's not like Philly and NY are the only contenders looking to make a trade. Detroit would definitely be in on J-Bo in this scenario. My point is that it seems silly to suggest that NY and Philly are the only teams in on these guys.

 

[Shady Machine]

I don't know why you're making it seem like other teams are so much more likely to take advantage of it than we are. Obviously, you need the seller to have the cash and the cap space. But what does being a rich market team have to do with it on the side that is getting the players for less money? I think that's Shady's point.

Yup you hit the nail on the head. I could buy the rich team angle IF the acquiring team could pay all the salary but leave part of the cap space with the trading team. That doesn't seem to be the rule in which case having money as the acquiring team is irrelevant.

 

[KIRK]

I don't know why you're making it seem like other teams are so much more likely to take advantage of it than we are. Obviously, you need the seller to have the cash and the cap space. But what does being a rich market team have to do with it on the side that is getting the players for less money? I think that's Shady's point.


I want him on the team. If he's here, I don't expect him to be penciled in for 19 minutes of ES time a night against other team's best players right off the bat.

1. I didn't suggest that anyone necessarily is more likely to take advantage than the Pens are. In fact, I hope Ray Shero takes advantage.

2. There definitely is a select list out there. Calgary, if they went rebuild, is the extreme example. But, I mentioned Malone. Or, even if Martin has trade value at 5M, if he worth so much more with the Pens eating 30% that it's worth doing that. It's not an infinite list, but some buyers AND sellers really are going to benefit. As I said before, imagine what the market for Nash would've been if Columbus had been able to eat a quarter of his cap/salary hit . . .

3. No, I thought Shady was talking about the whole value proposition for buyers. Definitely agree about the sellers, but I think you may find some subtle examples. Again, Malone. If TB ate a third of his deal, the cap value to the buyer would be 1.5M but TB is only on the hook for a third of the salary. It's money, and they're not rich. At the same time, what's Malone's market value at 3M compared to 4.5M. IMO, the Pens could ask a similar question about Martin.

 

[Shady Machine]

Got it KIRK. Thanks for clarifying. I think the new rule will certainly make things interesting. I hope we take advantage.

 

[KIRK]

Got it KIRK. Thanks for clarifying. I think the new rule will certainly make things interesting. I hope we take advantage.

I do too. I really just have this nightmare. Nobody takes advantage. Calgary hits the toilet. Deadline approaches. Paul Holmgren offers the farm in exchange for Cammy, Jbo, and Kipper at 50% cap hits. He gets all three at 9.3M for next year. Someone here says 'ha ha, cap hell next year'. Then, summer comes, and he buys out Briere and Bryz. You know what the net cap hit for 2013-2014 of getting those three at 50% and then the two buyouts would be? The Flyers would save 3M against the cap in 2013-2014. Maybe it's them. Maybe it's Sather. But someone is going to catch the general hockey media off guard.

 

[Darth Vitale]

Holmgren will go nuts with the two new cap rules, bank on it.

 

[Antaris]

Wouldn't be Holmgren if he didn't go nuts.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

We have to forget the notion that Calgary will rebuild. They won't. They are in a constant tug-o-war with the Oilers, and they do the exact opposite of what Edmonton does. Calgary is trying to make the playoffs right away. They won't sell. The mandate is to win now.

Besides, it's not like they are completely devoid of prospects now. Gaudreau and Baertschi look like studs. Wotherspoon looks pretty good. Sieloff, too. They also have several decent goalie prospects.

Iginla's not going anywhere. He's a Flame for life. J-Bo? Sure, they'd move him but not just for futures. IMO.

 

[Shrimper]

Holmgren will go nuts with the two new cap rules, bank on it.

He can trade away even more centers now.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

We have to forget the notion that Calgary will rebuild. They won't. They are in a constant tug-o-war with the Oilers, and they do the exact opposite of what Edmonton does. Calgary is trying to make the playoffs right away. They won't sell. The mandate is to win now.

Besides, it's not like they are completely devoid of prospects now. Gaudreau and Baertschi look like studs. Wotherspoon looks pretty good. Sieloff, too. They also have several decent goalie prospects.

Iginla's not going anywhere. He's a Flame for life. J-Bo? Sure, they'd move him but not just for futures. IMO.

Yup the Flames are not rebuilding, they should but their not. Going after Wideman and keeping Tanguay around doesn't seem like a team that wants to rebuild

 

[Riptide]

I do too. I really just have this nightmare. Nobody takes advantage. Calgary hits the toilet. Deadline approaches. Paul Holmgren <snip> buys out Briere and Bryz.

I don't see how anything can think Philly will buy out Bryz. Regardless of his performance, that's still a 18-20m cheque he'd have to be willing to cut. Yes they have more money than most, but spending 2-5m to say good riddance is a lot different than spending 15-20m to do the same.