If I'm reading the terms correctly, I think I really like this deal for the Chiefs. From 2022 to 2026, his cap hit will average $39.5 million per season. After 2026, if Mahomes declines, it sounds like they can cut him right when the 2027 league year starts and only be on the hook for $49 million dead cap for 2027. At that point, if they decide to move on from him, it's unlikely they'd be a good team, so they can afford to just absorb that hit. If Mahomes is still elite by 2027, both sides will want to re-structure (little guaranteed money left and huge cap jump to $60 million).
Signing(s): Patrick Mahomes signs extension (10 years, $503 million)
- Thread starter MMC
- Start date
If I'm reading the terms correctly, I think I really like this deal for the Chiefs. From 2022 to 2026, his cap hit will average $39.5 million per season. After 2026, if Mahomes declines, it sounds like they can cut him right when the 2027 league year starts and only be on the hook for $49 million dead cap for 2027. At that point, if they decide to move on from him, it's unlikely they'd be a good team, so they can afford to just absorb that hit. If Mahomes is still elite by 2027, both sides will want to re-structure (little guaranteed money left and huge cap jump to $60 million).
Right. 5 years on top of the two years remaining on the rookie deal, but I think it makes more sense now to re-negotiate before the 2026 season. Seems like they would want to steer clear of that 2027 cap hit
GKJ
Global Moderator
- Feb 27, 2002
- 187,321
- 39,350
Usually the roster bonus is what you're converting money into when re-structuring the deal. I don't know all the economics behind these deals, but I'm guessing that they're just trying to skip restructuring the deal after 6 years.
Yeah in a Cap era it's just not likely. Is there really much of a gap between the Chiefs and the next 4 or 5 top teams? I am not even sure they would be favored over the Ravens currently.
I agree . It's just really hard to keep winning with injuries and the salary cap being such key factors. The Chiefs were probably one little "extra" twist of Pat Mahomes knee from not being in the Super Bowl last year.
The Great Mighty Poo
Thank You 59.
What makes you think this will backfire on the Chiefs in a couple of years? Given the way it's structured, the deal will probably look like a bargain in a couple of years. Watson and Lamar will be looking at $40+ million per season extensions and that's essentially how much Mahomes will be making in the first 4-5 years of this extension before both sides look to re-structure. Mahomes would be making $40 million/season now if he were a free agent, but instead, the Chiefs will only start to pay him that kind of money in three years time.
Was thinking the same. Truth be told, they designed this so it would be easy to renegotiate in 3-5 years if the Chiefs need the cap space. I'd be surprised if this '10 year deal' isn't redone 3-4 times in the next 10 years.
The Great Mighty Poo
Thank You 59.
The Great Mighty Poo
Thank You 59.
The pale blue hell do I care? Just pointing out that this like all deals of this kind is eventually going to backfire, you're the one over analyzing everything.
Last edited by a moderator:
If you're going to say that the deal is going to backfire on them, then you should at least bring up what the alternative plan should be. While paying top money to a QB may not win you more SBs, I think it's at least a lock that they'll consistently make the playoffs, whereas taking the alternative route, like say trade Mahomes for a bunch of 1st round picks and using one to draft a QB, is a route that's going to be less successful, with the bust rate for drafting QBs.
Last edited by a moderator:
The Great Mighty Poo
Thank You 59.
When did I say trade him? When did I say anything you're the one assuming shit fan boy, all I said was "Surely this won't backfire in a few years". Pay attention to the language everybody universaly agreed to.
Last edited by a moderator:
I never said that it was your idea was to trade him. I said that was a hypothetical plan that would be an alternative to signing him to this large contract.
I can see that you have absolutely zero intention of making a coherent argument here. Time for both of us to move on.
Contracts in the NFL can be redone. His signing bonus money doesn’t extend too far thus there isn’t any dead money a few years into this deal, so should be fairly easy for KC to redo the deal. Any time a player can get guaranteed money they generally redo their deal.
how many players can you name who signed 5/6 year deals that actually played out al of the years without restructuring the contract? Hardly any.
the breakdown of the cap hit would suggest that KC has to ask to redo the deal. The yearly cap hits when they hit the midpoint of the contract are extremely high.
Last edited by a moderator:
Voight
#winning
Given his age and what hes done so far, he may play out every dollar of this deal, even if its worth half a billion.
He can, but it won't happen. Both sides have incentive to re-structure the contract in 2026 or 2027.
DangleCity
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2016
- 7,174
- 3,363
The Chiefs had number of options, but the poster is right. These long term, record breaking contracts rarely if ever work out well.
There has to be some context with this statement though. On the surface, it may not work out when it comes to winning more SBs, but how does that compare with the other alternative routes that the Chiefs could have taken? Would those other routes have given them a better chance to win SBs?
There's at least proof to show that paying a top dollar for a top QB at least ensures that you're a perennial playoff contender, if not an actual SB contender. I'll take that every time over whatever is behind Curtain #2. Even drafting a QB #1 overall doesn't ensure any kind of future success. That's how scary this whole process of evaluating QBs are. If you have someone like Mahomes, you fight tooth and nail to hang onto this guy.
Last edited:
Plus he’s the QB. One thing for Seattle to tell the LOB that they won’t redo deals, another to have a ticked off QB if Wilson ever had an issue. Wilson on his last deal set a deadline and a deal got done.
so no chance KC would hold Mahomes to this deal is Mahomes wants it redone at year 6. Who would they turn to?
This is a win for KC. The next 3 years still a low cap hit. And halfway through the deal other QBs will be making that, and leap him the last few years left.
Khelandros
Registered User
- Feb 12, 2019
- 4,007
- 4,478
Troy McClure
Suter will never be scratched
It's not dumb. QBs have been pushing the envelope on getting fully guaranteed contracts, and Mahomes did not continue that push. The NFLPA probably would have loved to see more guaranteed money, but Mahomes had different goals.
DangleCity
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2016
- 7,174
- 3,363
Im not denying that Chiefs really didn't have a lot of options, but the two are not mutually exclusive. It can be a bad contract, but also there only viable or best option.
