Speculation: Patrick Kane and Seth Jones future with Hawks

[RayP]

I’d rather see what this new regime does with that 9.5M in cap space when it’s time to use.

 

[hawksfan50]

S Jones has an unmoveable contract at that cap hit and term...The only way trading him if he waives his NMC would be if we take back either 1 contrac or 2 contracts which in total equal close to that $9.5 caphit ..WHAT term these contracts we take are at probablyvis less than 8 years but may be 4-5 yr.deals..

But if such players do not fit our new "fast hockey" mantra then I just cannotcsee us taking those contracted players on..


So in practical terms we are stick with S.Jones for awhile...If he us still playing well with just 2 seasons remaining off his 8 yr. Deal,then maybe we will trade him then and retain some cap in a tradexdeal(assuming g hecwaives) but we will be in full Cup contender window again then .. so why woukdvhecwsntbout?

So it woukd seem hecwill be here for at least 7 years. WE coukd buy out Hoschton yr. If he stinks again at ggat time or has stunk fot 7 years priorvunderctgat deal (8 Stinky years if you count this out-37 season priorcto his 8yr term kicking in).


Kane ...could opt to waive his NMC by TDL ...fo for Cup Run as a rental...then re-sign with tge Hawkscon 1cyrcdeals...go rental again in 2024 TDL.. same in 2025..


So we woukd likely get 3 firsts gor his rental services ...just that they are in 3 consecutive years ratger than a tradexandvhecextends for 3,4 orc5 yesrsxeksewhere..

By 2026 TDL Hawks might be cobtendersxznd be buyers tgat TDL ...so Kabe...if he agrees to this go and cone back strategy could pjay the Rental Game to try for more Cups but it still kerosene hon with the Hawksceach new sesdon!

Its perfect..
A way for him to stick around when we cobtend again for 1orvmore more Cup tries with the Hawks ..and he forms an integral part of helping us add to our first roubdercstockpikevthe nextc3 drafts!

I am a genius for proposing this strategy..which is Great if he cones on board with it.. If he agrees to this Helping Us. Via husxrental value ..then he goes down as the Greatest Blackhawks franchise player ever..

Of course only cobtendersvhirevrentals .. so the firstcwe get back will be late first rounder ..We could add to the haul by including a conditional pick which is a 2nd rounder the following draft which becomes 1st 2 draft xafter If that team wins the Cup!

The potential l haul would then be at best case scenario:
2023 TDL Rental = 1st 2023 + 1st 2025

2024 TDL Rental = 2024 1st + 2026 1st

2025 TDL rental = 2025 first + 2027 1st..


Pkayedcthusxwayvwe Rent him 3 consecutive years to get back a haul of best case 6 1sts!


I reality notvevery team will win the Cup that rents him...but at worst we would be guaranteed 3 firsts and 2nds!!!!


Al we need to do is vinnvince Kanecandvhuscagent Oat Brisdon that such a help to us will make Kane even more legendary for what he idid to help build our next dynasty Bkackhawks.. It coulld herimget sone Cuos while we are in 3 yrv re'build but he shouldbe very happy with both renaing to pkay at tge UC for about 80% of regukar sessin games and only have to go rental for 20 Orson games plus pmayoffs each of these 3 rental periods.

Shoukd be a win win for Kane and the Hawks.

In the 26/27 season if he still has not declined yet we woukdl then give him tgevootuon if continuingin cobtract for 1 yr at a tine for ,2 years or maybeeven a 3 year "retirement contract "..


Instead of making Kane angry about enduring a re-buikd this season we ease his pain with this perfect Rental strategy which gives him his Cup co petitions nextc3 seasons and then hopefully Hawks themselves are back i to that!
He would give us the greatest prospect pool ever compiled *additional g i our infusing pkayers from alk we have now over tge next 3-4years...

It is a magical solution to the Kane dilemma.

Alklwe need hom and Brisson is to "buy in" to the plan.


AnI not a genius for thinking this up?

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Jones plays a style that ages pretty well. I don't think he falls apart at 32.

 

[Mrfenn92]

What about a team like the Anaheim ducks for Seth?

 

[EbonyRaptor]

S Jones has an unmoveable contract at that cap hit and term...The only way trading him if he waives his NMC would be if we take back either 1 contrac or 2 contracts which in total equal close to that $9.5 caphit ..WHAT term these contracts we take are at probablyvis less than 8 years but may be 4-5 yr.deals..

But if such players do not fit our new "fast hockey" mantra then I just cannotcsee us taking those contracted players on..


So in practical terms we are stick with S.Jones for awhile...If he us still playing well with just 2 seasons remaining off his 8 yr. Deal,then maybe we will trade him then and retain some cap in a tradexdeal(assuming g hecwaives) but we will be in full Cup contender window again then .. so why woukdvhecwsntbout?

So it woukd seem hecwill be here for at least 7 years. WE coukd buy out Hoschton yr. If he stinks again at ggat time or has stunk fot 7 years priorvunderctgat deal (8 Stinky years if you count this out-37 season priorcto his 8yr term kicking in).


Kane ...could opt to waive his NMC by TDL ...fo for Cup Run as a rental...then re-sign with tge Hawkscon 1cyrcdeals...go rental again in 2024 TDL.. same in 2025..


So we woukd likely get 3 firsts gor his rental services ...just that they are in 3 consecutive years ratger than a tradexandvhecextends for 3,4 orc5 yesrsxeksewhere..

By 2026 TDL Hawks might be cobtendersxznd be buyers tgat TDL ...so Kabe...if he agrees to this go and cone back strategy could pjay the Rental Game to try for more Cups but it still kerosene hon with the Hawksceach new sesdon!

Its perfect..
A way for him to stick around when we cobtend again for 1orvmore more Cup tries with the Hawks ..and he forms an integral part of helping us add to our first roubdercstockpikevthe nextc3 drafts!

I am a genius for proposing this strategy..which is Great if he cones on board with it.. If he agrees to this Helping Us. Via husxrental value ..then he goes down as the Greatest Blackhawks franchise player ever..

Of course only cobtendersvhirevrentals .. so the firstcwe get back will be late first rounder ..We could add to the haul by including a conditional pick which is a 2nd rounder the following draft which becomes 1st 2 draft xafter If that team wins the Cup!

The potential l haul would then be at best case scenario:
2023 TDL Rental = 1st 2023 + 1st 2025

2024 TDL Rental = 2024 1st + 2026 1st

2025 TDL rental = 2025 first + 2027 1st..


Pkayedcthusxwayvwe Rent him 3 consecutive years to get back a haul of best case 6 1sts!


I reality notvevery team will win the Cup that rents him...but at worst we would be guaranteed 3 firsts and 2nds!!!!


Al we need to do is vinnvince Kanecandvhuscagent Oat Brisdon that such a help to us will make Kane even more legendary for what he idid to help build our next dynasty Bkackhawks.. It coulld herimget sone Cuos while we are in 3 yrv re'build but he shouldbe very happy with both renaing to pkay at tge UC for about 80% of regukar sessin games and only have to go rental for 20 Orson games plus pmayoffs each of these 3 rental periods.

Shoukd be a win win for Kane and the Hawks.

In the 26/27 season if he still has not declined yet we woukdl then give him tgevootuon if continuingin cobtract for 1 yr at a tine for ,2 years or maybeeven a 3 year "retirement contract "..


Instead of making Kane angry about enduring a re-buikd this season we ease his pain with this perfect Rental strategy which gives him his Cup co petitions nextc3 seasons and then hopefully Hawks themselves are back i to that!
He would give us the greatest prospect pool ever compiled *additional g i our infusing pkayers from alk we have now over tge next 3-4years...

It is a magical solution to the Kane dilemma.

Alklwe need hom and Brisson is to "buy in" to the plan.


AnI not a genius for thinking this up?

Very good effort on being clean, or at least remarkably cleaner than Naster Okan.

I agree with you on Seth Jones.

However, your genius "Kane rental plan" is kinda nuts. Wishful thinking in the extreme. Very cool if it happened - but still kinda nuts.

 

[BLKHKhockey]

The guys on the BT podcast mentioned a scenario where Kane gets traded at the TDL, signs a 2-3 year contract with that team to go on a few more runs. After that contract, he would, in theory, return to the Hawks when this team is further along in the process.

 

[Kevin Musto]

The guys on the BT podcast mentioned a scenario where Kane gets traded at the TDL, signs a 2-3 year contract with that team to go on a few more runs. After that contract, he would, in theory, return to the Hawks when this team is further along in the process.

Yeah I could see it.

If he gets traded at the deadline, I don't think he'll return immediately that same summer. But I do think he would return. And barring any injuries, that guy will still be playing when he's 40.

 

[iCanada]

What do you guys think Kane's value is like right now? Does that change much depending on retention?

First + young top 6 roster player + blue-chip +/- ?????

 

[Chuck Testa]

What do you guys think Kane's value is like right now? Does that change much depending on retention?

First + young top 6 roster player + blue-chip +/- ?????

McDavid and a 1st sounds about right

 

[Illinihockey]

Why cant he be part of the team when it gets better? He's signed for 8 more years and the Hawks gave up a ton for him. I wouldn't hand him over for basically nothing after they just gave up the farm for him.

He’s about to be 28. He’ll probably be 32-33 when this team is sniffing the playoffs

 

[Illinihockey]

What do you guys think Kane's value is like right now? Does that change much depending on retention?

First + young top 6 roster player + blue-chip +/- ?????

Late first and a prospect

 

[Mrfenn92]

What do you guys think Kane's value is like right now? Does that change much depending on retention?

First + young top 6 roster player + blue-chip +/- ?????

Would love that my guess is cap will be coming back

 

[Toews2Bickell]

What do you guys think Kane's value is like right now? Does that change much depending on retention?

First + young top 6 roster player + blue-chip +/- ?????

if its a deal with EDM, thinking Broberg/Holloway and a pick with retainment from Chicago

 

[Wally1112pac]

What do you guys think Kane's value is like right now? Does that change much depending on retention?

First + young top 6 roster player + blue-chip +/- ?????

More then what Giroux went for last season.

 

[tzo]

The Islanders are $11 million under the cap and only have 4 defensemen signed. Might they be interested in Jones? Aatu Raty and a first?

 

[EbonyRaptor]

The Islanders are $11 million under the cap and only have 4 defensemen signed. Might they be interested in Jones? Aatu Raty and a first?

The $11M cap space is plenty to sign Dobson and Romanov and then find a cheap #7 guy. Islanders are in pretty good shape Cap wise and Lineup wise. Maybe they want to add some more offense by like adding Kadri but it seems unlikely they would do anything like adding Jones. With Pulock, Pelech and Dobson - that a pretty good top-3 d-men, especially with the Russian between the pipes.

 

[hawksfan50]

I think Jane will think like this:

1 Agree to waiveNMC at TDL 2023 to go Rental to try to win another Cup...not extend with acquiring team but go ufa in July 2023.

2. He will already know who Hawks drafted with their 2023 first rounder.before he hits ufa.

3. i) if Hawks get t Bedard ,Kane immediately asks Hawks for long term retirementcontract as oath to contendership gets accelerated and he imagines immediate fun again playong on same line as Bedard (who goes straight to NHL)....
So all Hawks get in this case is the return for 1 TDL 2923 rental for Kane.

That price will be 1 guaranteed 2023 first rounder plus a conditional 1st in2024 or2025 if the rental acquiring team wins the Cup or a conditional 2nd and if the rental acquiring team gets to the Cup Final but does not win the Cup.

ii) IF the Hawks get Fantilli with their 1st rounder in 2023, then Kane knows Fantill will play 1 more season in college still ...and just like Toews will only leave after his sophomore season...so would join Hawks for start of thec25/26 season...so in this case Kane signs only for 1 yr with the Hawks...goes TDL rental in 2024 and Then i July 2024 as ufa then signs a long term retirement contract with the Hawks..
So in this case Hawks get 2 sets each of guaranteed 1sts plusv2 sets of conditional picks for these rental periods.

Iii) Hawks get Michkov with their 1stcroubder of 2023....in thiscscenario,Hawks must wait to 26/27 season before Michkov can come over free of his KHL contrsct.

Kane has to decide if he wants to wait that long as this delays out an imoactcsupetstar accelerating thecre-build ...
0lus Kane realize he will not play on same line as Michkov anyway (both RWs )...so he may be less interested in a series of more TDK rebtaksxandx1 yr term ufa signibgscwith Hawksceach July till alk tgat ine has passed or possibly seeing Hawkscre-build taking kindergarten yet...So given this scenario maybe Kane forgets the TDL and sign 1cyrcterm deals with Hawks till the 26/27 season and ibstead just goes with anotger r club which contends now and for these years till 26/27 and beyond?
So I thisxsceanario alk Hawksxget isxtgecreturn from justc1 TDL trade ..andche gone fir good...ublessvhe cones back for 26/27 season (onlyvsigns elsewhere for 23/24,24/25 and 25/26 seasons (3 ye deal with anotger club) then ufa again forc26/27 and then cones back to Chicago for a shorter retirement contract (3 yr deal at a muchvrdfucrdc cost to Hawks).

iv( Hawks xget unlickyvand land nonebif Bedard,Fantilli or Michkov.....in this worst case scenario...again Hawks get only the return from 1 TDL onKane...He then as ufa in 2023 signs a long term 6-7year deal with anotger club tgatvhexsees contendibgbover next 5 years or more.

So I think a lot of what happens regarding Kane depends on who Hawks draft with their 1st roubder in 2023...get none of the top 3 prizes and Kane likely gone from Hawjs forever.

Get Bedardli and hec agree to cone back with Hawks on 6 orc7 yr yr retirement contract OR if it is Fantilli he gives Hawks a 2bd TDL rental after signing onlyva 1 yr dea,but then signs a 5 orv6byr retirement contract from hisvufa status in July 2024 .
If itvis Michkov...he probably neither wants to wait til l 26/27 season not to go through more rentals in 2024,2025 and 2026 TDLs ...

So I think Kane in trying to best match both his interest in pursuibg scoring marks on the leader board for the Hawks all-time to cenenent hos legend in Blackhawks history AND also try to win more Cups, will decide on his options and opportunities influenced greatly by who Hawks draft with their 1st pick in rhe 2023 draft ...His fate as a Blackhawjs pkayer is this heavily delendant on the Hockey Gids and who they decide we will be getting in tgec2023 draft with their 1st pick.

Get Bedard or Fantilli and a goid chance Kane will want to sign long term again from his ufa statusvin 2023 or 2024 ...Get Michkov and he orobably has less interest in tryingvto stick around on the Blackhawks ...get none and he likely is gone for ever asxa Blackhawks player.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I think Jane will think like this:

1 Agree to waiveNMC at TDL 2023 to go Rental to try to win another Cup...not extend with acquiring team but go ufa in July 2023.

2. He will already know who Hawks drafted with their 2023 first rounder.before he hits ufa.

3. i) if Hawks get t Bedard ,Kane immediately asks Hawks for long term retirementcontract as oath to contendership gets accelerated and he imagines immediate fun again playong on same line as Bedard (who goes straight to NHL)....
So all Hawks get in this case is the return for 1 TDL 2923 rental for Kane.

That price will be 1 guaranteed 2023 first rounder plus a conditional 1st in2024 or2025 if the rental acquiring team wins the Cup or a conditional 2nd and if the rental acquiring team gets to the Cup Final but does not win the Cup.

ii) IF the Hawks get Fantilli with their 1st rounder in 2023, then Kane knows Fantill will play 1 more season in college still ...and just like Toews will only leave after his sophomore season...so would join Hawks for start of thec25/26 season...so in this case Kane signs only for 1 yr with the Hawks...goes TDL rental in 2024 and Then i July 2024 as ufa then signs a long term retirement contract with the Hawks..
So in this case Hawks get 2 sets each of guaranteed 1sts plusv2 sets of conditional picks for these rental periods.

Iii) Hawks get Michkov with their 1stcroubder of 2023....in thiscscenario,Hawks must wait to 26/27 season before Michkov can come over free of his KHL contrsct.

Kane has to decide if he wants to wait that long as this delays out an imoactcsupetstar accelerating thecre-build ...
0lus Kane realize he will not play on same line as Michkov anyway (both RWs )...so he may be less interested in a series of more TDK rebtaksxandx1 yr term ufa signibgscwith Hawksceach July till alk tgat ine has passed or possibly seeing Hawkscre-build taking kindergarten yet...So given this scenario maybe Kane forgets the TDL and sign 1cyrcterm deals with Hawks till the 26/27 season and ibstead just goes with anotger r club which contends now and for these years till 26/27 and beyond?
So I thisxsceanario alk Hawksxget isxtgecreturn from justc1 TDL trade ..andche gone fir good...ublessvhe cones back for 26/27 season (onlyvsigns elsewhere for 23/24,24/25 and 25/26 seasons (3 ye deal with anotger club) then ufa again forc26/27 and then cones back to Chicago for a shorter retirement contract (3 yr deal at a muchvrdfucrdc cost to Hawks).

iv( Hawks xget unlickyvand land nonebif Bedard,Fantilli or Michkov.....in this worst case scenario...again Hawks get only the return from 1 TDL onKane...He then as ufa in 2023 signs a long term 6-7year deal with anotger club tgatvhexsees contendibgbover next 5 years or more.

So I think a lot of what happens regarding Kane depends on who Hawks draft with their 1st roubder in 2023...get none of the top 3 prizes and Kane likely gone from Hawjs forever.

Get Bedardli and hec agree to cone back with Hawks on 6 orc7 yr yr retirement contract OR if it is Fantilli he gives Hawks a 2bd TDL rental after signing onlyva 1 yr dea,but then signs a 5 orv6byr retirement contract from hisvufa status in July 2024 .
If itvis Michkov...he probably neither wants to wait til l 26/27 season not to go through more rentals in 2024,2025 and 2026 TDLs ...

So I think Kane in trying to best match both his interest in pursuibg scoring marks on the leader board for the Hawks all-time to cenenent hos legend in Blackhawks history AND also try to win more Cups, will decide on his options and opportunities influenced greatly by who Hawks draft with their 1st pick in rhe 2023 draft ...His fate as a Blackhawjs pkayer is this heavily delendant on the Hockey Gids and who they decide we will be getting in tgec2023 draft with their 1st pick.

Get Bedard or Fantilli and a goid chance Kane will want to sign long term again from his ufa statusvin 2023 or 2024 ...Get Michkov and he orobably has less interest in tryingvto stick around on the Blackhawks ...get none and he likely is gone for ever asxa Blackhawks player.

I think you make a reasonable argument on how things could go. Let's hope the Hockey Gids agree.

 

[deytookerjaabs]

Athletic just put out an article with Jones as "one of NHL's 10 worst contracts" according to some model they made up.

Anyone have a subscription?

Tyler Seguin, Seth Jones and more: NHL's 10 worst contracts, 2022 edition

There are players who deserve the tag of having one of the worst contracts in hockey. Here is our list of the 10 worst ones.

theathletic.com

 

[ColbyChaos]

Athletic just put out an article with Jones as "one of NHL's 10 worst contracts" according to some model they made up.

Anyone have a subscription?

Tyler Seguin, Seth Jones and more: NHL's 10 worst contracts, 2022 edition

There are players who deserve the tag of having one of the worst contracts in hockey. Here is our list of the 10 worst ones.

theathletic.com

Got you bby
Contract: $9.5M x eight years

Surplus Value: -$39.6M

Positive Value Probability: 20.4 percent

The summer of 2021 was the year that defensemen got paid. Those defenders come in two tiers: the best in the league who are now underpaid on the best contracts in hockey list, and the ones who aren’t the best but are paid like they are. Those are the ones on this list.

It seems like the NHL at large basically said: “Do you play 25 minutes per game and score? If so, you are entitled to an eight-year deal worth $9 million per season!” And that’s how we end up with four deals from that summer on the worst contracts list, starting with the always polarizing Seth Jones.

On the surface, Jones is a 50-point defenceman who eats minutes. That’s a good player and one any team would be lucky to have. The problem remains that at five-on-five he doesn’t win matchups. It’s nice to have a guy who can play 26 minutes per game, but what they do in those minutes matter. Jones doesn’t move the needle in that way, not like he did in his prime. Perhaps that’s a product of the teams he’s been on, but it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that he came to Chicago as a supposed needle-mover and proceeded to not move the needle. He’s being paid to be a true number one who can provide 2.1 wins of value per season, but he’s closer to a strong number two defenceman at around 1.3 wins. Good player, just not elite.

The problem with Jones’s deal isn’t really what he is now, it’s the length of the deal. Eight years is a very long time and if he already isn’t worth it at 27, what’s that going to look like at age 35? Probably not good.

Jones’ chances of living up to his deal are better than most on this list at one-in-five, and his talent is obvious. This could be one of those times where the model underrates a player due to their situation more than their ability and that shouldn’t be discounted with Jones. But at the same time, Chicago was his chance to prove he’s an elite number one and it’s hard to say he accomplished that. With eight years left on his mega deal, it’s an uphill battle for Jones to be worth his contract for the life of it.

complete list is
Seguin
Jones
Skinner
M.E Vlassic
Nurse
Parayko
Karlsson
Werenski
Suzuki
Chiarot

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I think the "Seth Jones contract is terrible" narrative is subjective to the situation in that he is a good d-man, with "+" grades in size, skating, defending, offense, and capable of playing big minutes against the opposition's best players - but for a team in rebuilding mode he is a luxury that isn't necessary so from our perspective his contract looks worse than it actually is according to his abilities and the going rate for top defenders.

Do I wish now that Stan hadn't made the trade? In retrospect - yeah, I wish he didn't make the trade given the Hawks have (finally) entered rebuild mode. It would have been nice to not have that contract for so many years when it superfluous to our needs - plus having our own 1st round picks in 2021 and 2022 without having to trade DCat to get a top-10 pick - or - having (2) top-10 picks by trading DCat. Either way you slice is it would have been better for the rebuild had Stan not made the Seth Jones trade.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Got you bby
Contract: $9.5M x eight years

Surplus Value: -$39.6M

Positive Value Probability: 20.4 percent

The summer of 2021 was the year that defensemen got paid. Those defenders come in two tiers: the best in the league who are now underpaid on the best contracts in hockey list, and the ones who aren’t the best but are paid like they are. Those are the ones on this list.

It seems like the NHL at large basically said: “Do you play 25 minutes per game and score? If so, you are entitled to an eight-year deal worth $9 million per season!” And that’s how we end up with four deals from that summer on the worst contracts list, starting with the always polarizing Seth Jones.

On the surface, Jones is a 50-point defenceman who eats minutes. That’s a good player and one any team would be lucky to have. The problem remains that at five-on-five he doesn’t win matchups. It’s nice to have a guy who can play 26 minutes per game, but what they do in those minutes matter. Jones doesn’t move the needle in that way, not like he did in his prime. Perhaps that’s a product of the teams he’s been on, but it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that he came to Chicago as a supposed needle-mover and proceeded to not move the needle. He’s being paid to be a true number one who can provide 2.1 wins of value per season, but he’s closer to a strong number two defenceman at around 1.3 wins. Good player, just not elite.

The problem with Jones’s deal isn’t really what he is now, it’s the length of the deal. Eight years is a very long time and if he already isn’t worth it at 27, what’s that going to look like at age 35? Probably not good.

Jones’ chances of living up to his deal are better than most on this list at one-in-five, and his talent is obvious. This could be one of those times where the model underrates a player due to their situation more than their ability and that shouldn’t be discounted with Jones. But at the same time, Chicago was his chance to prove he’s an elite number one and it’s hard to say he accomplished that. With eight years left on his mega deal, it’s an uphill battle for Jones to be worth his contract for the life of it.

complete list is
Seguin
Jones
Skinner
M.E Vlassic
Nurse
Parayko
Karlsson
Werenski
Suzuki
Chiarot

he's 1.5m aav overpaid, evolving hockey had him at 8x8 if he was a UFA, no shot hes top ten worst deals in league if hes getting that kind of money and term after last year

 

[Illinihockey]

he's 1.5m aav overpaid, evolving hockey had him at 8x8 if he was a UFA, no shot hes top ten worst deals in league if hes getting that kind of money and term after last year

Give it a few years

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Give it a few years

thats not what the article is about though, its about right now... conceptually the model makes sense, the idea of some sort of implied war based on the aav but if war is a flawed metric and they cant accurately project total war over an 8 year contract then the output from the model is garbage...have my doubts they can project the variable well past a few years tbh, much like a discounted cash flow model in finance, ppl have their debates about war being as useful in hockey as it is in baseball

 

[Illinihockey]

thats not what the article is about though, its about right now... conceptually the model makes sense, the idea of some sort of implied war based on the aav but if war is a flawed metric and they cant accurately project total war over an 8 year contract then the output from the model is garbage...have my doubts they can project the variable well past a few years tbh, much like a discounted cash flow model in finance, ppl have their debates about war being as useful in hockey as it is in baseball

Literally from the article

The problem with Jones’s deal isn’t really what he is now, it’s the length of the deal. Eight years is a very long time and if he already isn’t worth it at 27, what’s that going to look like at age 35? Probably not good.