CFHF Fantasy League Part XXI: Much ado about goalies

[InfinityIggy]

Yes. A rough back-of-the-envelope calculation determined that the odds of the worst team in the league drafting outside the top 5 was about 25% in the old scheme. That was unacceptably high for us. This new system brings that chance to below 5%.

Why do you think we're not serious?

Sigh, doesn't matter.

 

[Pirate King Luffy]

Now change the playoff format.

 

[Anglesmith]

Sigh, doesn't matter.

If I'm understanding you correctly, your issue is probably that I figured this out this year and not last year. Would that be accurate? Or that you traded Scorch's pick before this change occurred. Either way I understand your frustration.

 

[Anglesmith]

Now change the playoff format.

Playoff format is unchangeable on Yahoo.

 

[InfinityIggy]

If I'm understanding you correctly, your issue is probably that I figured this out this year and not last year. Would that be accurate? Or that you traded Scorch's pick before this change occurred. Either way I understand your frustration.

The prospect draft has never been kind to me.

At least if Deebz wins I won't be salty about it.

The timing of this sucks for me value wise. However I can't argue that the system didn't need to be changed, its a change for the better especially considering the expansion teams.

 

[Pirate King Luffy]

Playoff format is unchangeable on Yahoo.

I meant for playoff teams who get randomized picks in the 1st round.

 

[Anglesmith]

The prospect draft has never been kind to me.

At least if Deebz wins I won't be salty about it.

The timing of this sucks for me value wise. However I can't argue that the system didn't need to be changed, its a change for the better especially considering the expansion teams.

I appreciate your understanding, II.

Had to be done. We had to change the odds anyway, given we had the expansion regime in there with three teams with equal numbers of balls. I only regret not doing this sort of analysis sooner. Last year, the odds of Pingu drafting outside the top 5 were bounded between 21.7% and 32.8% (not going to calculate the exact number). This year, it will be bounded between 0.14% and 7.6%.

If it cheers you up, I might add a video recording of myself conducting the lottery this time, and I might do it with dice and an assigned combination chart instead.

I meant for playoff teams who get randomized picks in the 1st round.

This is being discussed.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I appreciate your understanding, II.

Had to be done. We had to change the odds anyway, given we had the expansion regime in there with three teams with equal numbers of balls. I only regret not doing this sort of analysis sooner. Last year, the odds of Pingu drafting outside the top 5 were bounded between 21.7% and 32.8% (not going to calculate the exact number). This year, it will be bounded between 0.14% and 7.6%.

If it cheers you up, I might add a video recording of myself conducting the lottery this time, and I might do it with dice and an assigned combination chart instead.



This is being discussed.

That would be worth the price of admission

 

[Pirate King Luffy]

This is being discussed.

Wish I knew that!

 

[Anglesmith]

That would be worth the price of admission

I think so. My plan would be to release the chart prior to the lottery, record myself rolling a decahedral die in three-roll combinations over and over until I hit 11 of the 12 teams, then release the results the same way I did last year, followed by posting the footage. I don't want to ruin the suspense by posting the footage first.

You'll notice that I made the total number of balls add up to 1000, so that matches the number of possible permutations of three dice rolls.

 

[DCDM]

The prospect draft has never been kind to me.

At least if Deebz wins I won't be salty about it.

The timing of this sucks for me value wise. However I can't argue that the system didn't need to be changed, its a change for the better especially considering the expansion teams.

 

[tfong]

Well that kinda makes my chances of landing Matthews a bit harder

 

[InfinityIggy]

I just noticed, in the inaugural 2012 draft I took Cam Ward with the 11th pick in the 4th round. The player selected next? Patrick Kane

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I just noticed, in the inaugural 2012 draft I took Cam Ward with the 11th pick in the 4th round. The player selected next? Patrick Kane

You idiot.

 

[InfinityIggy]

You idiot.

We were all young and naive once Hox.

 

[tfong]

You idiot.

If it makes you feel any better, Kiwi picked MDZ with the 4th pick of that round

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

We were all young and naive once Hox.

Ha! All good, in a year or 2 from now, you could very well be saying the same thing back to me over our little trade yesterday.

So is life in a fantasy league, I like taking risks and have been fairly successful doing so in the past.

 

[Kanye]

Ha! All good, in a year or 2 from now, you could very well be saying the same thing back to me over our little trade yesterday.

So is life in a fantasy league, I like taking risks and have been fairly successful doing so in the past.

Like trading a norris winner and a Hart winner for 2 rookies and a sophomore

 

[King In The North]

I just noticed, in the inaugural 2012 draft I took Cam Ward with the 11th pick in the 4th round. The player selected next? Patrick Kane

Some smart drafting by me. Should never have traded him

 

[InfinityIggy]

Some smart drafting by me. Should never have traded him

It's okay. I completely panicked and traded him away this off season

 

[Anglesmith]

It's okay. I completely panicked and traded him away this off season

I still think it was a smart move at the time. There was no way of knowing if he'd be out of the NHL for years or right back and better than ever. You traded him for another player guaranteed to be somewhere in the middle of that.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I still think it was a smart move at the time. There was no way of knowing if he'd be out of the NHL for years or right back and better than ever. You traded him for another player guaranteed to be somewhere in the middle of that.

That was my thinking AS. It wouldn't sting quite as bad if Schwartz hadn't gotten injured 7 games into the season. I likely wont even get 40 games out of him this season now.

 

[King In The North]

That was my thinking AS. It wouldn't sting quite as bad if Schwartz hadn't gotten injured 7 games into the season. I likely wont even get 40 games out of him this season now.

I always shouldn't have let Schwartz go

 

[KiwiFlamesFan]

If it makes you feel any better, Kiwi picked MDZ with the 4th pick of that round

Oh man

 

[Kanye]

lol.. first draft.

1st - Kovalchuk -- Notables after: Datsyuk, Karlsson
2nd - Eberle -- Notables after: Fleury, Couture, D. Sedin
3rd - Landeskog -- Notables after: Duchene, Hall
4th - Kiprusoff lol -- Notables after: Nash, Kane
5th - Cammalleri -- Notables after: Baertschi (lol), Subban
6th - Brodeur -- Notables after: Tarasenko, Wheeler, Shattenkirk
7th - Kreider -- Notables after: Ladd, Huberdeau, Voracek
8th - Campbell -- Notables after: Kesler
9th - Lecavalier - Notables after: Stastny
10th - Hemsky smh - Notables after: Kunitz



How depressing.

edit

lol @ James Neal 5th overall