Asiaoil
Vperod Bizona!
Lou is God said:Big problem on your post here in on your theory on how points on a first year player in the AHL will be translated to on how many points they will score in the NHL, espicially since you didn't seem to take into account the quality of the team he is on or strength of the league this year.
The Rats average just 2.5 goals a game and despite that Parise has averaged .80 points a game or if you want to look at it another way he has been involved in 29% of the teams offensive scoring in a league that is probably the strongest it has ever been in years due to the hockey lockout. For a first year pro player that's pretty damn good, honestly I don't know what else this boy has to do but to suggest he's ONLY going to be a 40-50 point scorer in the NHL because he's not tearing up the league to your satisfaction is selling the kid short(no pun intended).
I am using Gabriel Desjardins' equvelency ratios that suggest most prospects would score at about 41% of their 20 year old AHL season totals if they actually played that season in the NHL. For Parise that would be about a 23 point season over 68 games. Now is this method fool-proof - of course not. It's simply a rule of thumb that's back up by a few stats and some historical evidence. Could Parise do better - yes. Is it very likely - no. This is just a probable outcome based on what a lot of other prospects have achieved over time and of course there are exceptions.
As for Parise being on a weak team excuse - no dice - igor on the Oilers board looked at his situational numbers and he is playing with the best linemates the Rats have against relatively soft opposition. The kid is being eased in and there is nothing wrong about that - but it does put his offensive and defensive numbers into context.
So Parise is a good prospect - just not an elite prospect and the numbers to this point support this view. From a career perspective I still think Mike York is a good analog for Parise. A 40-60 point second line guy who is a little handicapped by his size so you have to get him favorable matchups or he can get into trouble. Having a York-type player on your roster is great - but the Oilers already have him so that's why the trade was made. No other reason than that.
I don't consider myself a Parise slammer - just a Parise realist and to this point I don't see anything that I'm saying is out of line with his actual performance. If the Oilers had him I would be pretty pleased with his progress - but I would also be pretty worried about how to fit both York and Parise into the top 6 at the same time without getting hurt defensively. Given that NJD has Gomez - that's obviously a concern and I would not be surprised to see one of those guys eventually moving on. Small players are fine - you just can't have a top 6 full of them or you will be abused by bigger teams.