Ovechkin's 65 and Gretzky's 92

[The Panther]

(Getting off the numbers-topic a bit...):

Gretzky is such a fascinating player because he was sometimes the best goal-scorer BY FAR in the NHL and was always the best playmaker BY FAR, five or six times doing both simultaneously.

Therefore, any discussion of his goal-scoring totals compared to a more "one-dimensional" goal-scorer (like Hull Jr. or Ovechkin) are inherently biased against Gretzky, because Gretzky was not purely or essentially a goal-scorer. He scored 92 and 87 goals while being much better than that at setting up his linemates and teammates.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Gretzky could have significantly increased his goals-totals during his 1980-1991 prime if he had been focused on doing so. (There is also no doubt that Hull and Ovechkin could NOT have increased their goals-totals, since they were/are already focused on scoring goals at the exclusion of everything else.)

However, I think it would have been detrimental to the Oilers if Gretzky had in fact been more purely focused on goal-scoring. That's because Gretzky always made the right offensive play at the right time, reading every situation perfectly.

In other words, if 1981-82 Gretzky had scored 102 goals (not 92), it does not follow that he would have had ten fewer assists (110 instead of 120). Yes, he could have scored 102 goals -- no doubt in my mind, in fact -- but as a consequence, I think his assist-total would have sunk from 120 to maybe 95 or something. In sum, his being over-focused on goal-scoring (or, over-focused on playmaking) would have hurt his team by comparison to the reality.

In other words, he did exactly what was best to maximize his team's offense, whether scoring a goal or setting one up. Players like Hull Jr. and Ovechkin are not capable of doing that, which is why, overall, they're nowhere near Gretzky.

So, again, I find it difficult to analyze Gretzky purely as a goal-scorer. It would be comparable to ranking Bobby Orr purely as a defensive player and ignoring the fact that he won scoring titles.

Here's an enjoyable highlights package of an Oilers' 1981-82 game, Edmonton vs. Montreal:


Gretzky fails to score but assists on all the Oilers' goals. This is probably an example of what I'm talking about. If Gretzky had tried harder to score a goal in this game, he probably would have, but then he might have ended up with 1 goal and 1 assist (or no assists), and the Oilers would have lost 3-2. Instead, he can be purely a playmaker at the drop of a hat, and his team earns a point.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I'll simply say that the best looking body isn't necessarily the most "fit" body, especially in a sport where endurance is so crucial.

Oh, but that doesn't apply to athletes before what.. 2000 or something?

Because the popular notion around here seems to be that older players were a bunch of fat slobs smoking 3 packs a day and downing a 2-4 after every game.

I completely agree with you that being a gym rat doesn't necessarily equate with being a better hockey player. And if we're going to talk about endurance being crucial.. it was a lot more crucial in the old days with longer shifts than it is now...

 

[Doctor No]

Nobody asked you to afford me the benefit of your doubt. Your goal should be to post your thoughts on the topic, not your thoughts on the poster or their motives.

My thoughts on the topic have been posted, well upstream in the thread (I'll give you the short version - you're conflating two different things, and if you focus on the thing that's actually being discussed, you'll find that it's an interesting topic).

Care to actually do that?

 

[Rebuilt]

(Getting off the numbers-topic a bit...):


There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Gretzky could have significantly increased his goals-totals during his 1980-1991 prime if he had been focused on doing so. (There is also no doubt that Hull and Ovechkin could NOT have increased their goals-totals, since they were/are already focused on scoring goals at the exclusion of everything else.)

This is a great post. I tried to steer clear of the assists because it really insults any objective reader to make any non Gretzky argument. This thread is supposedly about Ovechkin making his 65 is as good today as Gretzky making his 92 which again is using game rules that are illusion.

Gretzky scoring 92 goals and netting 200 points afforded all those who were young enough in the league or still in junior to start copying is tactics and the beleaguered defenses and goaltenders had no reply. Therefore everyones scoring started to rise dramatically.

The real question is...........did Ovechkins goal scoring cause a phenomenon that many new shooters copied to create far more 50 goal scorers thereafter?

No. It did not. Therefore his 65 goals were nowhere near as instrumental or difficult or require some new way of playing the game.

Those of us who watched Gretzky saw a guy who came into the league, played the game a different way which caused the defense and goaltending to break down which all who followed copied.

By the mid 90s.............Patrick Roy and Dominik Hasek learned to defeat the Gretzky offense using defensive systems to take away lanes and goaltenders who puffed out and took away the bottom of the ice. The goalies have reigned supreme ever since.

Edit: much to my surprise, the scoring starts to creep up in 78-79 when Gretzky was in the WHA for the year. Not when he hits the NHL the year later albeit it will skyrocket upon his arrival.

In 77-78 when Gretzky was playing his last year in junior, the NHL had the Vezina winner at 2.05 GAA , 2 50 goal scorers only (albeit Lafleur had 60) and only 3 players who had 100 points or more.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_1978_leaders.html

So no, there was no 'free for all' or weak goaltending . Gretzky simply broke it all down upon his arrival and made it look silly. All others started to copy it to various degrees of success and the defenses / goaltending had no reply for 15 years.

 

[tfantasy]

Oh god what's next, comparing Mike Green to Bobby Orr?

Lol, what the heck are you talking about?

 

[dr robbie]

That's because Gretzky always made the right offensive play at the right time, reading every situation perfectly.

I know you're Gretzky's biggest fan ever, but sometimes you lay it on a little thick

 

[BackToTheBasics]

Gretzky scoring 92 goals and netting 200 points afforded all those who were young enough in the league or still in junior to start copying is tactics and the beleaguered defenses and goaltenders had no reply. Therefore everyones scoring started to rise dramatically.

The real question is...........did Ovechkins goal scoring cause a phenomenon that many new shooters copied to create far more 50 goal scorers thereafter?

No. It did not. Therefore his 65 goals were nowhere near as instrumental or difficult or require some new way of playing the game.

Those of us who watched Gretzky saw a guy who came into the league, played the game a different way which caused the defense and goaltending to break down which all who followed copied.

By the mid 90s.............Patrick Roy and Dominik Hasek learned to defeat the Gretzky offense using defensive systems to take away lanes and goaltenders who puffed out and took away the bottom of the ice. The goalies have reigned supreme ever since.

Edit: much to my surprise, the scoring starts to creep up in 78-79 when Gretzky was in the WHA for the year. Not when he hits the NHL the year later albeit it will skyrocket upon his arrival.

In 77-78 when Gretzky was playing his last year in junior, the NHL had the Vezina winner at 2.05 GAA , 2 50 goal scorers only (albeit Lafleur had 60) and only 3 players who had 100 points or more.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_1978_leaders.html

So no, there was no 'free for all' or weak goaltending . Gretzky simply broke it all down upon his arrival and made it look silly. All others started to copy it to various degrees of success and the defenses / goaltending had no reply for 15 years.

Entertaining story but in reality, that doesn't explain the increase in scoring. One needs to take into account the emergence of young players; increase in powerplay opportunities; increased game schedule; as well as expansion among other things. Gretzky was a factor for the increase in scoring, but not as big as you are implying.

Also, do you have any real proof of Gretzky's influence? i.e; Players/coaches mentioning that their play styles or their outlook on the game changed after Gretzky's arrival? (Aside from his own teammates of course)

 

[Doctor No]

Gretzky scoring 92 goals and netting 200 points afforded all those who were young enough in the league or still in junior to start copying is tactics and the beleaguered defenses and goaltenders had no reply. Therefore everyones scoring started to rise dramatically.

I do agree that Gretzky had significantly more impact on the sport than Ovechkin has, and I also agree that Gretzky's a significantly better overall player than Ovechkin.

But that's not what the topic of this thread is.

(For what it's worth, I also think that Gretzky's 92 goal season was more impressive than Ovechkin's 65. But it's an interesting question.)

 

[Rebuilt]

Entertaining story but in reality, that doesn't explain the increase in scoring. One needs to take into account the emergence of young players; increase in powerplay opportunities; increased game schedule; as well as expansion among other things. Gretzky was a factor for the increase in scoring, but not as big as you are implying.

Also, do you have any real proof of Gretzky's influence? i.e; Players/coaches mentioning that their play styles or their outlook on the game changed after Gretzky's arrival? (Aside from his own teammates of course)

Aside from 30 years of players coaches and others directly saying so? The entire league retiring his number? All the records he still holds?

Besides all that? Nope. Only my humble opinion.

I dont think I can take this anymore.

Anyone who thinks Gretzky would only score 45 goals in 1951-52 when 'scoring was also down' shouldnt even bother reply to my posts. Just state your opinion on your own and move on. Thanks in advance.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

Aside from 30 years of players coaches and others directly saying so? The entire league retiring his number? All the records he still holds?

Besides all that? Nope. Only my humble opinion.

I dont think I can take this anymore.

Anyone who thinks Gretzky would only score 45 goals in 1951-52 when 'scoring was also down' shouldnt even bother reply to my posts. Just state your opinion on your own and move on. Thanks in advance.

I don't think you understood what I was asking. I was asking for proof for the notion that players began to copy Gretzky's style thus increasing the overall scoring in the league. He did have a large impact on scoring but there are other things to consider. There's no point in discussing anything if you aren't willing to accept that.

Also, it just seems that it's hard for you to accept that a player has/might come along that does it better than Gretzky. Ovechkin is in that conversation and it's not as simple as looking at their overall impact on league-wide scoring. He certainly isn't nearly the player that Gretzky was but what they achieved as goal scorers are comparable.

 

[Doctor No]

This diversion is still not what the question of the thread is asking.

No one's claiming that Gretzky was less influential to the sport than Ovechkin.

 

[Rebuilt]

I don't think you understood what I was asking. I was asking for proof for the notion that players began to copy Gretzky's style thus increasing the overall scoring in the league. He did have a large impact on scoring but there are other things to consider. There's no point in discussing anything if you aren't willing to accept that.

Also, it just seems that it's hard for you to accept that a player has/might come along that does it better than Gretzky. Ovechkin is in that conversation and it's not as simple as looking at their overall impact on league-wide scoring. He certainly isn't nearly the player that Gretzky was but what they achieved as goal scorers are comparable.

I have never met anyone who claimed Wayne Gretzky did NOT influence their style as a forward or even a defender and in fact eventually as goalie to combat it. Not anyone born AFTER Gretzky that is. You have never encountered someone suggesting they have 'copied' or fashioned their game after Gretzky? Honestly?

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/a...ing-felt-in-nhl-record-book-around-the-league

If you think Ovechkin has done better than Gretzky, present that case.

Your personal opinion of how I think is utterly irrelevant. Stick to the subject. Not the poster.

 

[Doctor No]

I agree that it's important to stick to the subject of the thread.

Would you care to do that as well?

 

[Rebuilt]

I do agree that Gretzky had significantly more impact on the sport than Ovechkin has, and I also agree that Gretzky's a significantly better overall player than Ovechkin.

But that's not what the topic of this thread is.

(For what it's worth, I also think that Gretzky's 92 goal season was more impressive than Ovechkin's 65. But it's an interesting question.)

Its not.

I already stated in previous posts we cant go to 2046 to find some guy with 30 years of Ovechkin hindsight to show how his effort would be so much better blah blah....

So instead, we look at Ovechkin going back to 81-82 (to kind of merge 2 threads the other being him getting 50 in 39)

vs

Gretzky of 81-82 going back to 51-52 when scoring was also 'down' compared to his era. The case I made was fairly simply that he would and should score 150 goals.

Gretzky scoring 150 goals in the 51-52 season would simply allow other players to try to copy what he is doing to various degrees of success..........and there is no new information for defenses or goalies so they would suffer immensely. Offense would thrive.

by 53-54 Gordie Howe would have 75 or 80 goals at least and so on. Certainly Geoffreion and Richard.

So, if we now go back to 81-82 , we see that Gretzkys impact on the other forwards ballooned their efforts and the poor goalies were hung out to dry. He changed the game.

Did Ovechkin of 2006-2012 'change the game' or make it easier to score? No.

His 65 goal effort was great, but did nothing to alter the game. Gretzky did. Go re read my previous posts where I show it.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

I have never met anyone who claimed Wayne Gretzky did NOT influence their style as a forward or even a defender and in fact eventually as goalie to combat it. Not anyone born AFTER Gretzky that is. You have never encountered someone suggesting they have 'copied' or fashioned their game after Gretzky? Honestly?

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/a...ing-felt-in-nhl-record-book-around-the-league

If you think Ovechkin has done better than Gretzky, present that case.

Your personal opinion of how I think is utterly irrelevant. Stick to the subject. Not the poster.

Of course he impacted the way others played. I'm just pointing out that I doubt that it was a major factor for the reason scoring increased after the 1980' season which is what you were arguing.

I don't think Ovechkin has surpassed Gretzky as a goal scorer yet but considering their goal scoring finishes relative to their peers, he will very soon if he remains a top 3 goal scorer for a few more seasons. It would also be difficult to place him above Gretzky if he doesn't manage to get the Capitals past the 2nd round. If he manages to put up good numbers on route to winning a cup with Washington, I would rank him above Gretzky as a goal scorer.

Now, back on topic, I would consider Gretzky's 92 goal season to better because even after adjusting for the goal scoring environment (which is far from perfect), Ovechkin's total is barely higher. Gretzky could have scored even more goals that season if he had focused solely on goalscoring.

 

[Rebuilt]

Of course he impacted the way others played. I'm just pointing out that I doubt that it was a major factor for the reason scoring increased after the 1980' season which is what you were arguing.

I don't think Ovechkin has surpassed Gretzky as a goal scorer yet but considering their goal scoring finishes relative to their peers, he will very soon if he remains a top 3 goal scorer for a few more seasons. It would also be difficult to place him above Gretzky if he doesn't manage to get the Capitals past the 2nd round. If he manages to put up good numbers on route to winning a cup with Washington, I would rank him above Gretzky as a goal scorer.

Now, back on topic, I would consider Gretzky's 92 goal season to better because even after adjusting for the goal scoring environment (which is far from perfect), Ovechkin's total is barely higher. Gretzky could have scored even more goals that season if he had focused solely on goalscoring.

Then put up your evidence to support it. I am not interested in your subjective speculation as to why. Put up the actual evidence to support your claim.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

Then put up your evidence to support it. I am not interested in your subjective speculation as to why. Put up the actual evidence to support your claim.

You can take a look at this thread from a while back which provides pretty solid theories for the increase in goalscoring:


Again, like I said, he was a reason for the increase, but not the sole reason.

 

[Rebuilt]

You can take a look at this thread from a while back which provides pretty solid theories for the increase in goalscoring:


Again, like I said, he was a reason for the increase, but not the sole reason.

Serving up a thread of speculation from HFboards isnt 'evidence'. Its previous subjective speculation.

And saying he was a reason but not 100% of the reason is saying nothing at all . So he was 99% the reason? As long as there is TECHNICALLY another reason(s) no matter how trivial ...... then he cant claim the whole thing? That's your point? lol.

I will wait for someone to come along and give some tangible explanation as to why (somehow) Ovechkins 65 goals were just as impressive cuz............'GPG' was lower in 2012.

Yeah. It was lower in 1951-52 as well. And most would agree Gretzky would have got 150 goals playing in the 6 team joker league back then. Not less as the GPG apologists have stipulated.

 

[The Panther]

I know you're Gretzky's biggest fan ever, but sometimes you lay it on a little thick

I don't think I am Gretzky's biggest fan ever, no. Perhaps I was laying it on thick with the word "perfectly", but I think you got my point -- Gretzky, far more than any player I've ever seen (I've got 30+ years' NHL watching in), was adept at seeing the best option from any (offensive) situation on the ice and making the right play from any situation.

In a sense I am limiting Gretzky's achievements, because I'm saying that while he could have scored more goals (or more assists), he couldn't have done both, because he maximized the potential of each offensive situation. To put it another way, he did as much as was offensively possible and got as much out of every situation as could be gotten out of it. He wrung offensive opportunities dry.

One of the relative disappointments of his game after about 1991 was that he over-relied on playmaking, somewhat at the expense of goal-scoring (I suspect, as with many players as they try to prolong their careers, this had a lot to do with self-protection and self-preservation -- he was less willing to go to the front of the net, for example).

 

[Hippasus]

These are the top ratios of goal production relative to the average first-line forward for a given season. As one can see, Gretzky has a very narrow edge over Ovechkin. The question might be posed if quality of competition is comparable across these seasons. I'm not talking about the development of the game here, but rather how dense the goal-scoring of the first-line peers was for the given season. There was a recent expansion prior to the Gretzky season in question, but as being part of one of those expansion teams himself, this shouldn't be as big of a factor against Gretzky. I give the slight edge to the Gretzky season due to the numbers below.

1|Brett Hull 90-91 |2.630588235
2|Esposito 70-71 |2.610903659
3|Gordie Howe 52-53| 2.423655914
4|Dye 24-25 |2.410447761
5|Malone 17-18 | 2.37254902
6|Gretzky 81-82 | 2.354183591
7|Gretzky 83-84 | 2.342042755
8|Lemieux 88-89 | 2.297297297
9|Ovechkin 07-08 | 2.285444234
10|Stamkos 11-12 | 2.231312756

Some poster(s) have suggested that Gretzky was more integral to the development of the game. That is true, but IMO that should more to do with looking at good players in a more general sense (i.e. comparing the greats against the greats). When posing that consideration for goal-scoring, it gets a lot more hairy to make a case for Gretzky. For one thing, it was more in terms of points and general offensive production than goals per se that Gretzky altered the game. Also, doing such a comparison isn't really fair for Ovechkin because we don't know yet how he may end up having altered the game in terms of goal-scoring influence. Laine apparently models his game after Ovechkin a bit, but the former is just a rookie.

 

[Claypool]

The year Grezky scored 92 goals he shot the puck 369 times with a shooting percentage of 25%.

The year Ovechkin scored 65 goals he shot the puck 446 times with a shooting percentage of 15%

Goaltending in 2008 was obviously better than in 82.

 

[daver]

The year Grezky scored 92 goals he shot the puck 369 times with a shooting percentage of 25%.

The year Ovechkin scored 65 goals he shot the puck 446 times with a shooting percentage of 15%

Goaltending in 2008 was obviously better than in 82.

Which is why everyone put up 90 goals in '82 right?

 

[TheStatican]

1|Brett Hull 90-91 |2.630588235
2|Esposito 70-71 |2.610903659
3|Gordie Howe 52-53| 2.423655914
4|Dye 24-25 |2.410447761
5|Malone 17-18 | 2.37254902
6|Gretzky 81-82 | 2.354183591
7|Gretzky 83-84 | 2.342042755
8|Lemieux 88-89 | 2.297297297
9|Ovechkin 07-08 | 2.285444234
10|Stamkos 11-12 | 2.231312756

Why would you need to use 9 decimal points to express that information? 4 or even 3 would of be more than sufficient, the information conveyed by anything beyond that is negligible and essentially meaningless considering the separation between the results for the top 10.

 

[Xelebes]

I know someone has tried to represent the differential of the scores using a z-score, but I am not certain whether or not a gamma distribution was used and how that distribution was applied league-wide. Would be curious to see.

 

[Hippasus]

Why would you need to use 9 decimal points to express that information? 4 or even 3 would of be more than sufficient, the information conveyed by anything beyond that is negligible and essentially meaningless considering the separation between the results for the top 10.

Fair enough. I just copied and pasted it from my Excel file when I did that analysis. I'll look and see if there is a way to simplify the results if I post something in the future, provided there is not some sort of tie.