Ovechkin's 65 and Gretzky's 92

[Filthy Dangles]

Ovechkin's 65 > Gretzky's 92?

07/08 GPG: 2.78
81/82 GPG: 4.01

65 / 2.78 * 4.01 = 93
93 > 92

But is that fair to Gretzky. How much did his 92 goals raise the league GPG? I don't know how to calculate what league average GPG would have been if you remove Gretzky's 92 and then adjust again for era.

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[Balance]

Another telling sign is that after the 1994 season Gretzky only managed to score 25 goals in his best season. He never hit the 50 goal mark after 1989 which coincides with goal scoring dropping.

You look at Selanne and Mogilny scoring 76 at the beginning of their careers and then never following that up.

Simply put: 65 was much harder than 92 and its evident by the stats these players put up later on.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Gretzky scored 92 in 81-82
Ovechkin 65 in 07-08

League Average GPG during those years

07-08: 2.78
81-82: 4.01

65 / 2.78 * 4.01 = 93
93 > 92

But, Gretzky is a big reason why the GPG is so high (I assume) how do you remove his 92 goals and then recompute the average GPG in 81-82? And then adjust for Ovechkin's 65 against that recalculated league average?

 

[Rebuilt]

Gretzky scored 92 in 81-82
Ovechkin 65 in 07-08

League Average GPG during those years

07-08: 2.78
81-82: 4.01

65 / 2.78 * 4.01 = 93
93 > 92

But, Gretzky is a big reason why the GPG is so high (I assume) how do you remove his 92 goals and then recompute the average GPG in 81-82? And then adjust for Ovechkin's 65 against that recalculated league average?

might want to also factor the elimination of 2 line offside, 4 on 4 hockey, far less hitting, 30 years of watching tape on Gretzky to see how he does his magic, better food, better equipment, and better training ...........oh and rubber band sling shot hockey sticks.

 

[Laineux]

Nah, Gretzky would have a ridiculously small effect on league-wide scoring. And without Gretzky, someone would've still scored goals playing #1c for Oilers.

 

[Rebuilt]

Nah, Gretzky would have a ridiculously small effect on league-wide scoring. And without Gretzky, someone would've still scored goals playing #1c for Oilers.

Go find out how many GPG were being scored from 1977 to 1979.

Then how many it ballooned to when Gretzky arrived on the scene from 1980 to 84.

He is the reason.

 

[Laineux]

Go find out how many GPG were being scored from 1977 to 1979.

Then how many it ballooned to when Gretzky arrived on the scene from 1980 to 84.

He is the reason.

There were like 7,000+ goals scored per season in the 80's. To have even 5% effect, Gretzky would've had directly made 350 goals happen. Per season.And that doesn't even account that obviously a lot of goals would've been scored by a player in Gretzky's place, if he didn't play...

 

[Plural]

I'm don't know which one was better. I'm more inclined to pick Gretzky than Ovechkin though.

But, I'll say this. Gretzky's 92 goals did not have any meaningful impact on league-wide GPG. Any what so ever. His 200+ points didn't have any significant impact on the scoring levels.

Scoring was higher, of course. But Gretzky wasn't some anomaly twisting the averages.

 

[Doctor No]

Go find out how many GPG were being scored from 1977 to 1979.

Then how many it ballooned to when Gretzky arrived on the scene from 1980 to 84.

He is the reason.

*A* reason? Sure.

*The* reason? Ridiculous.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Please don't start the exact same thread in two different fora.

Merged.

 

[reckoning]

07/08 GPG: 2.78
81/82 GPG: 4.01

65 / 2.78 * 4.01 = 93
93 > 92

But is that fair to Gretzky. How much did his 92 goals raise the league GPG? I don't know how to calculate what league average GPG would have been if you remove Gretzky's 92 and then adjust again for era.

There's all kinds of different variables that can be factored into the equation. Scoring rates is only one of those.

If you're just comparing the players GPG with the yearly scoring rates, then Brett Hull's 85 goals in '90-'91 beats both of them.

Another telling sign is that after the 1994 season Gretzky only managed to score 25 goals in his best season. He never hit the 50 goal mark after 1989 which coincides with goal scoring dropping.

Players in their mid-30s with bad backs tend to score less than they did in their 20s when they were completely healthy.

Yes, the scoring rate was higher in the 80s, but it's not like other players were also getting 80 or 90 goals. The season Gretzky scored his 92 goals, the next highest was Bossy at 64. 28 goals behind is not even close. Only 10 players in the entire NHL that season scored half as many goals as Gretzky.

 

[authentic]

Ovechkin's was slightly more impressive. Stamkos' 60 was roughly equal to Gretzky's considering scoring levels, though I don't think he would have scored much more than 50 without having an elite playmaker like St. Louis drive his line.

 

[Thenameless]

92 is just too high a number compared to 65. Scaling as above on a league-wide basis doesn't factor in the fact that the higher the absolute number gets, the harder it is to improve scale-wise.

Going from 30 to 60 goals is a 100% improvement, while going from 60 to 90 goals is only a 50% improvement.

I'd say it's a lot harder to go from say 80 to 90, then from 50 to 60, as you still have only 80 or so games to accomplish the feat.

Put another way, I'd bet Gretzky would have a greater chance of scoring 66 goals in today's game, than Ovechkin would have of scoring 93 goals in Gretzky's day.

 

[Doctor No]

92 is just too high a number compared to 65. Scaling as above on a league-wide basis doesn't factor in the fact that the higher the absolute number gets, the harder it is to improve scale-wise.

Going from 30 to 60 goals is a 100% improvement, while going from 60 to 90 goals is only a 50% improvement.

I'd say it's a lot harder to go from say 80 to 90, then from 50 to 60, as you still have only 80 or so games to accomplish the feat.

But does that matter? In basketball, players get thousands of points per season, and it's not a problem.

If people are scoring twice as many goals per game, then it's not harder to go from 80 to 90.

 

[Namba 17]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=116775357&postcount=19

 

[The Panther]

The best regular-season goal-scoring statistical result in NHL history is Brett Hull of St.Louis in 1990-91.

1981-82 isn't even Gretzky's best goal-scoring season, though if you're going to compare it to 2008 or whatever, I think there's more than just average-GPG to look at. In 1982, basically all NHL teams had prolific second-lines (many of which scored more than today's first lines). Since that didn't exist in 2008, it's quite unfair to Gretzky's 92 (or, more impressively, his 87 in 74 games in 1984) to just look at League-wide GPG.

A tidbit about Brett Hull in 1990-91: in addition to being the best regular-season goal-scoring statistical result in NHL history, I believe Hull in 1990-91 is also the most NHL (regular season) games in which one player (Hull) scored 1 or more goals. He scored at least one goal in 56 NHL games in that regular season (and never scored more than 3 in one game).


(Of course, Hull's 1990-91 likely isn't even one of the top-20 seasons in history overall -- and he was outscored by his teammate that same season -- but that's getting off-topic...)

 

[jth359]

Below are the players that have had the highest standard deviation from the Top 100 Goal Scorers for a particular year since 1980. The top 3 highest scores (Gretzky’s 92 and 87 goal seasons and Hull’s 86 goal season) did not surprise me, I was however surprised to see Steven Stamkos’ 60 goal season come in at 4th.

Player - Season - Goals - Standard Deviations from Mean

1. Gretzky - 81/82 - 92 - 5.61
2. Hull - 90-91 - 86 - 5.44
3. Gretzky - 84/84 - 87 - 5.31
4. Stamkos - 11/12 - 60 - 4.92
5. Lemieux - 88/89 - 85 - 4.85

 

[91Hickey14]

The best regular-season goal-scoring statistical result in NHL history is Brett Hull of St.Louis in 1990-91.

1981-82 isn't even Gretzky's best goal-scoring season, though if you're going to compare it to 2008 or whatever, I think there's more than just average-GPG to look at. In 1982, basically all NHL teams had prolific second-lines (many of which scored more than today's first lines). Since that didn't exist in 2008, it's quite unfair to Gretzky's 92 (or, more impressively, his 87 in 74 games in 1984) to just look at League-wide GPG.

A tidbit about Brett Hull in 1990-91: in addition to being the best regular-season goal-scoring statistical result in NHL history, I believe Hull in 1990-91 is also the most NHL (regular season) games in which one player (Hull) scored 1 or more goals. He scored at least one goal in 56 NHL games in that regular season (and never scored more than 3 in one game).


(Of course, Hull's 1990-91 likely isn't even one of the top-20 seasons in history overall -- and he was outscored by his teammate that same season -- but that's getting off-topic...)

Fantasy Hockey god

 

[Laveuglette]

Below are the players that have had the highest standard deviation from the Top 100 Goal Scorers for a particular year since 1980. The top 3 highest scores (Gretzky’s 92 and 87 goal seasons and Hull’s 86 goal season) did not surprise me, I was however surprised to see Steven Stamkos’ 60 goal season come in at 4th.

Player - Season - Goals - Standard Deviations from Mean

1. Gretzky - 81/82 - 92 - 5.61
2. Hull - 90-91 - 86 - 5.44
3. Gretzky - 84/84 - 87 - 5.31
4. Stamkos - 11/12 - 60 - 4.92
5. Lemieux - 88/89 - 85 - 4.85

Z score is a much better statistics than "adjusted goals". That is nice.

 

[Rayban*]

Watch gretzky's highlights and Ovi's highlight's and compare them both to OHL highlights in 2016 and 1 will be much worse than the 16 year olds...

 

[The Panther]

Fantasy Hockey god

Huh?

Watch gretzky's highlights and Ovi's highlight's and compare them both to OHL highlights in 2016 and 1 will be much worse than the 16 year olds...

It's true that Ovechkin's average goals are fairly dull, but you're selling him a bit short here.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

might want to also factor the elimination of 2 line offside, 4 on 4 hockey, far less hitting, 30 years of watching tape on Gretzky to see how he does his magic, better food, better equipment, and better training ...........oh and rubber band sling shot hockey sticks.

gretzky's 92 was the better goal scoring season, don't get me wrong. but i think you would have to offset at least some of the technical era disadvantages of playing in the early 80s with the technical era advantages that the goalies gretzky was facing also played under. significantly smaller and heavier pads, much much much less technical training, etc.

 

[Rayban*]

Huh?

It's true that Ovechkin's average goals are fairly dull, but you're selling him a bit short here.

I know right, Ovie beating 2 defenders and putting it around the goalie while sliding on his back has nothing on Gretzky taking a slap shot from just inside the blue line on a break away against a goalie that barely moves.

 

[SnoopDogg]

Comparing Ovechkin to Gretzky?

Oh god what's next, comparing Mike Green to Bobby Orr?

 

[Theokritos]

Comparing Ovechkin to Gretzky?

Oh god what's next, comparing Mike Green to Bobby Orr?

Seriously? Ovechkin is an all-time great in terms of goalscoring. As is Gretzky. Mike Green on the other hand is a secondary footnote in the history of hockey.